eu referendum update

[Keith and Linda]

The refugees can't get through UK border controls. Yes, if they stay long enough and get residency, then they will have the same right travel as any eu citizen.

 

If we leave the EU , the French can just let them go through. We would need to set up border controls in Dover and stop and search every train coming through. We would then get to play refugee ping pong with the French .

 

It would make using the tunnel a nightmare.

 

Why can it not be like the air transport/border controls, where the airlines are not allowed to let you fly without valid visa/passport, and even then if they get through then border control sends them right back and in this we should be resolute!

I am not sorry about this as we cannot just let people do what they want, they need to obey and respect the laws of the land as much as we do.

[VERYSTORMY]

The refugees can't get through UK border controls. Yes, if they stay long enough and get residency, then they will have the same right travel as any eu citizen.

 

If we leave the EU , the French can just let them go through. We would need to set up border controls in Dover and stop and search every train coming through. We would then get to play refugee ping pong with the French .

 

It would make using the tunnel a nightmare.

 

Partially incorrect.

 

Yes, we would need to implement boarder controls, though there already mainly in place as the UK isn't in the Schengen zone and requires passports to be checked.

 

There is though no "ping pong". If a person from a country wishes to enter, they would need to either have a visa or hold a passport from a country with a visa waiver - such as Australia. If they hold neither, then the country they came from, are, by international law, required to take them back. Also, the carrier - whether that was air or Eurostar are, by international law, required to pay for that carriage. It would be no different than someone trying to come to the UK from anywhere else

[Marisawright]

But what if it takes ten years or more until it is safe to return?

 

Anyway, you are changing the subject. The EU referendum has nothing to do with refugees.

 

The trouble is, a lot of voters seem to think it is about refugees and other unwanted immigrants, and that's all they're thinking about.

[tea4too]

I understand the problem just fine. You are right when you say the refugee problem should not be part of this debate, problem is most of the voting public think it is so it is by default. I was talking to the father in law last week and was surprised for him to be voting to stay in. He's just been down South and stayed in a couple of hotels where the staff were all Europeans. He came out with the comment that the employers can't get the young idle average british worker to do the menial jobs. I think he's wrong, especially given the high numbers of unemployed youngsters. The hotels were open and operating before the EU and were staffed just fine. While a cheap workforce is available, each one willing to be cheaper than the last, employees aren't going to train UK unemployed and pay them a decent wage to do menial tasks. That's without all the European immigrants working for other European settlers for cash. A massive black economy that someone who has to pay fair taxes can't compete with. Same thing goes on here too but more with Asians on farms working for other Asians usually. No visas, keep them under the radar, keep them inside the farm property in caravans. Been quite a few cases locally to where we live.

The UK will take a while to recover if they get out but I've confidence it would be better out. The EU's days are numbered I reckon. The UK would just be the first ones out.

 

You aren't alone in thinking that migration is having a negative effect on the UK economy but there is a weight of evidence to the contrary, including this from the London School of Economics and Political Science:

 

‘If rising immigration crowds out the job prospects of UK-born workers, we might expect to see joblessness rise most in areas where immigration has risen most.’

 

‘…there is no evidence of any association between changes in the less skilled (defined as those who left school at age 16) native youth NEET (‘not in education, employment or training’) rate and changes in the share of immigrants. Counties that experienced the largest rises in immigrants experienced neither larger nor smaller rises in native-born unemployment.'

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA019.pdf

[VERYSTORMY]

You aren't alone in thinking that migration is having a negative effect on the UK economy but there is a weight of evidence to the contrary, including this from the London School of Economics and Political Science:

 

‘If rising immigration crowds out the job prospects of UK-born workers, we might expect to see joblessness rise most in areas where immigration has risen most.’

 

‘…there is no evidence of any association between changes in the less skilled (defined as those who left school at age 16) native youth NEET (‘not in education, employment or training’) rate and changes in the share of immigrants. Counties that experienced the largest rises in immigrants experienced neither larger nor smaller rises in native-born unemployment.'

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA019.pdf

 

 

Youth unemployment is up very significantly and last year was at its all time highest. It is just off the all time highest at 13.7%.

 

The other expected consequence of increasing the available labour force is poor wage growth which in turn results in overly low inflation.

[Gbye grey sky]

Youth unemployment is up very significantly and last year was at its all time highest. It is just off the all time highest at 13.7%.

 

The other expected consequence of increasing the available labour force is poor wage growth which in turn results in overly low inflation.

 

So if youth unemployment will fall and wages will rise as a consequence of Brexit why are the Trades Unions backing Remain? Do they know something you don't perhaps?

[BacktoDemocracy]

Rubbish.

Every country has as its first duty to protect its borders and its people.

 

Your extreme left wing ideology is very disturbing and totally out of step with community expectations.

I just wonder where you would have been politically and practically in 1937-39 with the jewish refugee crisis when so many countries restricted entry for German jews including the UK, would you have been with Oswald Mosley or advocating humanitarian visas for all, the parallels are painfully obvious.

[BacktoDemocracy]

Then we would have a micro city somewhere.

and it has! proved by how much it is talked about within the referendum discussions.

Only because it's the main populist pressure point that can be exploited by the exiteers as they have no other case to make other than frightening people who have little understanding of what the EU is about with images of millions of Turks, Albania's , Lithuanians, Syrians and Muslims of every stripe rampaging , looting and raping down our High streets,

[tea4too]

Youth unemployment is up very significantly and last year was at its all time highest. It is just off the all time highest at 13.7%.

 

The other expected consequence of increasing the available labour force is poor wage growth which in turn results in overly low inflation.

 

You're right in that youth unemployment increased by 6,000 in the quarter January – March 2016, but overall the figure reduced from 15.9% to 13.7% i.e by 102,000, compared to a year ago. http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05871

[VERYSTORMY]

So if youth unemployment will fall and wages will rise as a consequence of Brexit why are the Trades Unions backing Remain? Do they know something you don't perhaps?

 

The trade unions have been out of touch with the average person for many years (arguably at least since the early 80's). Trade union membership now is no longer the domain of the working class and it is now more professionals than working class.

 

The group that is least likely to be a union member in the UK are the unemployed.

 

As a result, the unions don't give a hoot about the young unemployed - there not members and are not likely to become members. On the other hand, your young white guardian reader living in Shoreditch who is a remain supporter is a member. So, they follow their membership

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/525938/Trade_Union_Membership_2015_-_Statistical_Bulletin.pdf

 

Unfortunately for Labour, this is going to kill them worse than the Tory party ripping itself apart. The Labour heartlands are very strong Brexit and are now more likely than ever to vote UKIP as they feel abandoned by Labour

[VERYSTORMY]

You're right in that youth unemployment increased by 6,000 in the quarter January – March 2016, but overall the figure reduced from 15.9% to 13.7% i.e by 102,000, compared to a year ago. http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN05871

 

But still very high and wage growth continues to be very poor. Poor enough that the IMF beloved of Cameroon and his remainers has warned it poses significant risk

[Gbye grey sky]

The trade unions have been out of touch with the average person for many years (arguably at least since the early 80's). Trade union membership now is no longer the domain of the working class and it is now more professionals than working class.

 

The group that is least likely to be a union member in the UK are the unemployed.

 

As a result, the unions don't give a hoot about the young unemployed - there not members and are not likely to become members. On the other hand, your young white guardian reader living in Shoreditch who is a remain supporter is a member. So, they follow their membership

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/525938/Trade_Union_Membership_2015_-_Statistical_Bulletin.pdf

 

Unfortunately for Labour, this is going to kill them worse than the Tory party ripping itself apart. The Labour heartlands are very strong Brexit and are now more likely than ever to vote UKIP as they feel abandoned by Labour

 

Surely the group least likely to be union members are immigrants.

 

Bit of a turnaround in that the only people that will now stand up for the young unemployed is the likes of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and Michael Gove. All bastions of the working class unlike those Trade Union toffs.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Gbye grey sky

[tea4too]

But still very high and wage growth continues to be very poor. Poor enough that the IMF beloved of Cameroon and his remainers has warned it poses significant risk

I don’t disagree that 13.5% is too high, but this thread is about the EU referendum and there are posts suggesting EU migration is having a negative effect on the economy, that it is responsible for increasing levels of unemployment among the young… but that perception is not backed up by the facts as far as I can see. Research and statistics show that overall youth unemployment is falling, and migrants put more into the economy than they take out – whatever this referendum is about, migration should not be the decider imo T x

[VERYSTORMY]

I don’t disagree that 13.5% is too high, but this thread is about the EU referendum and there are posts suggesting EU migration is having a negative effect on the economy, that it is responsible for increasing levels of unemployment among the young… but that perception is not backed up by the facts as far as I can see. Research and statistics show that overall youth unemployment is falling, and migrants put more into the economy than they take out – whatever this referendum is about, migration should not be the decider imo T x

 

But it is not as simple as that. Unemployment has to be taken in context of the participation rate - as that is in effect how it is measured. You are not in the unemployed figure if you have not looked for work. The participation rates have fallen significantly for young people http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/compendium/participationratesintheuklabourmarket/2015-03-19/participationratesintheuk20141overview

 

At the same time, the unemployment rate across the board has been significantly impacted by the new work for the dole schemes - those on these are not classed in the unemployment rate. For example, the Nissan car plant in Sunderland now has about 1000 people on work for the dole schemes at any one time

[Gbye grey sky]

Unemployment rate is too high but has to be viewed in context. At 5.1% it is way below the long term average and particularly so when measured against the double digits commonplace in the 1980s.

 

Unemployment is much greater in countries such as Spain which is attracting far fewer EU migrants than the UK. So it could be said that immigrants are creating as many if not more vacancies than they are filling. The UK job market is relatively buoyant and particularly so when viewed against virtually flat growth.

[tea4too]

But it is not as simple as that. Unemployment has to be taken in context of the participation rate - as that is in effect how it is measured. You are not in the unemployed figure if you have not looked for work. The participation rates have fallen significantly for young people http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/compendium/participationratesintheuklabourmarket/2015-03-19/participationratesintheuk20141overview

 

At the same time, the unemployment rate across the board has been significantly impacted by the new work for the dole schemes - those on these are not classed in the unemployment rate. For example, the Nissan car plant in Sunderland now has about 1000 people on work for the dole schemes at any one time

As a percentage, the number of young people in the market place will reduce as more women return to work and the state pension age increases. Add to that increasing numbers of under 25 year olds in further or higher education.

 

Apprenticeships, YTS…they have always existed and, for better or worse, have removed young people from the employment statistics and into low paid work. Immigration has not caused a huge shift in employment opportunities for UK citizens as far as I can see. The economy has benefited overall, and with an ageing population the UK will find it very difficult to support the increasing number of pensioners if it relies solely on a reducing number of home grown UK taxpayers. T x

[VERYSTORMY]

Unemployment rate is too high but has to be viewed in context. At 5.1% it is way below the long term average and particularly so when measured against the double digits commonplace in the 1980s.

 

Unemployment is much greater in countries such as Spain which is attracting far fewer EU migrants than the UK. So it could be said that immigrants are creating as many if not more vacancies than they are filling. The UK job market is relatively buoyant and particularly so when viewed against virtually flat growth.

 

But, as shown above, youth unemployment - the people that normally do the lower paid jobs is high and don't think anyone on either side thinks we created over 200,000 new jobs last year.

 

But, most importantly, the wage growth is a massive issue as that affects everything.

[newjez]

Good to see the brexit has no effect. Footsie may drop below 6000 tomorrow.

[Thom]

Any uncertainty can cause fluctuations in the markets, these can also self right once stability returns.

[Paul1Perth]

You aren't alone in thinking that migration is having a negative effect on the UK economy but there is a weight of evidence to the contrary, including this from the London School of Economics and Political Science:

 

‘If rising immigration crowds out the job prospects of UK-born workers, we might expect to see joblessness rise most in areas where immigration has risen most.’

 

‘…there is no evidence of any association between changes in the less skilled (defined as those who left school at age 16) native youth NEET (‘not in education, employment or training’) rate and changes in the share of immigrants. Counties that experienced the largest rises in immigrants experienced neither larger nor smaller rises in native-born unemployment.'

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA019.pdf

Doesn't matter how much evidence they come up with though if public perception and gut feeling says different, that's what people will believe. All the agencies that do these reports are untrustworthy in my opinion too. They are funded by somewhere that wants a particular result and they can word questions and ask the right people to deliver that result. There are a lot of factors that affect the native youth as they call it. Not leadt of which is a lot of native people moving out of an area when a lot of non native move in. I went to uni in Birmingham and lived in Sparkhill for a couple of years. The only white faces you saw on the bus out of Birmingham to Sparkhill were students renting. The natives had given up on the place long ago and moved up to Solihull or further towards Stratford. Good place for a currie or a new sahri.

[Gbye grey sky]

Any uncertainty can cause fluctuations in the markets, these can also self right once stability returns.

 

Brexit will usher in a whole new era of instability as nobody can say with any confidence how bad things are going to get (for the UK and EU particularly) over the coming months and years.

 

Most experts are expecting it to be a rough ride but most people don't believe or trust any experts so will be voting either way based on their own gut instinct or inbuilt bias.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Paul1Perth]

But it is not as simple as that. Unemployment has to be taken in context of the participation rate - as that is in effect how it is measured. You are not in the unemployed figure if you have not looked for work. The participation rates have fallen significantly for young people http://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/compendium/participationratesintheuklabourmarket/2015-03-19/participationratesintheuk20141overview

 

At the same time, the unemployment rate across the board has been significantly impacted by the new work for the dole schemes - those on these are not classed in the unemployment rate. For example, the Nissan car plant in Sunderland now has about 1000 people on work for the dole schemes at any one time

Nissan must be loving that.

[Gbye grey sky]

Nissan must be loving that.

 

I would love to see where that stat actually came from as I can find no info through searching. If true it would represent about 1 in 6 of their total UK workforce. Given that this highly controversial scheme was designed for long term unemployed youngsters it is hard to imagine a manufacturer needing skilled labour and an excellent work ethic would be able to accommodate so many people in that category.

[newjez]

They should be settled around the world somewhere in any safe country that will have them.

 

But as Australia does, this should not be the country they have specifically targetted as this is just encouraging the people smuggling business.

 

 

What if they are trying to reunite with family?

[Parley]

What if they are trying to reunite with family?

 

Bad Luck. If the person is a genuine refugee fleeing persecution then their safety is the priority.

 

But these are probably a minority of cases anyway. Others should be packed off home.