eu referendum update

[Ferrets]

Reasoned debate is one thing.

 

However today my wife and two toddlers were pursued down the street aggressively by a leave canvasser who would not leave them alone (despite being clear initially that mind was made up to remain) with dire warnings of "foreigners" moving into the area - note no other argument was put forward in relation to economics or services.

 

Whilst there may be those who support the economic argument for leave (that I disagree with) it seems that increasingly immigrants are being used as the scapegoat for valid issues in the country.

 

It's a good thing that history shows that this sort of xenophobic behaviour doesn't end badly.

[newjez]

In your opinion of course! Immigration is just a sub topic (though a large one) of the greater subject of having control.

I would also add that to say people are deluded just because they feel strongly about a subject could be seen as offensive.

 

The immigration debate is laughable. Immigration will proceed regardless of who wins. What will change is the immigrants will target more middle class jobs than menial jobs, and the countries they come from will change.

 

Long term, if either camp wins there will be little change. But you will have a rough couple of years if we exit, and more if Europe implodes. Worst case is another GFC.

 

This is not a trivial thing we do. Anyone thinking of immigrating, or with teenage kids should think about the pain they are exposing themselves to.

[JFD Darwin]

Hi, i still own a property in the uk, which i am planning to sell to bring my money over here in the next couple of years. For anyone in this position, who is on a provisional visa, intending to apply for PR - think about cash!! if 'Out' win then the UK pound is likely to depreciate in value for in the medium term - just because on the uncertainty'. The major employer in my old 'home town' has come out and raised the real risk to jobs of Brexit. i want a stong UK pound for when i transfer my cash! I might not be a major Cameron fan, but when you look at the people who are heading up the 'out' campaign you have to think abouth their 'connection' with real people.

[Gbye grey sky]

Another aspect is of course the financial and what it costs us to be a member of this club.

 

There has been a lot of debate about this and exactly how much it actually is. I haven't finished digging by a long way and am seeing a myriad of small payments in the 10's of millions in addition to these, which indicates that yes, it looks like it costs us one very big bag full of money. And don't forget, what we get back from the EU, we are told how we must spend it.

 

At the moment, I get it to £307 million a week that is after the rebate and before a big bag of smaller fees or the budget for actually administering it all. The later part I cant get an actual number for other than it is somewhere between £5 and 50 million a week.

 

Gross National Income charge (membership fee)2015 = £12.9 Billion less £4.5 Billion (given back by EU) = £8.5 Billion Net.

https://fullfact.org/economy/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million

VAT value added tax paid to the E.U. by the UK for 2015 = £2.6 Billion

(Vat contributions in the 2015 EU budget total £14 billion pounds UK pays 18.5%of this)

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/483344/EU_finances_2015_final_web_09122015.pdf

Traditional own resources/custom duties paid for 2015 = £2.63 Billion

(TOR in 2015 is €18.8 billion (£14.6 billion), UK pays 18.0 per cent)

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/483344/EU_finances_2015_final_web_09122015.pdf

European Court of Auditors November 2014 stated Member States will in thefuture be required to contribute a further €326 billion for commitments madeunder previous Budgets) Estimated UK payment 2015 = £0.5 billion

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-priorities-2020/news/court-of-auditors-warns-of-multi-billion-eu-budget-gap/

EU budget surcharge: = £850 million pounds (after rebate deducted).

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3237073/Cameron-Osborne-quietly-pay-1-7BILLION-bill-Brussels-dismisses-totally-unacceptable.html

Greece bailout rescue fund: In 2010, Jean-Claude Juncker, current EuropeanCommissioner president, made a pledge to UK Prime minister David Cameron, tonever again use the EFSM to bail out another Eurozone country, he lied. https://acelg.blogactiv.eu/2015/07/20/how-europes-least-controversial-rescue-fund-became-controversial/http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/bailout-fallout-juncker-lies-to-cameron.htmlCost of bailout = £850 million.

 

A significant chunk of these will rise in the coming year

 

It is commendable to attempt to make an economic case for leaving but an uphill task. So much of what is spent and received back (often in grants and subsidies) is hard to quantify. And whilst some money can undoubtedly be saved sending MEPs and bureaucrats to Brussels any savings here would have to be offset with the costs of doing business with the EU as an outsider. Norway pays more (per capita) to the EU as a non-member than the UK as a member.

 

You are better off sticking with the tried and trusted ant-immigration line and reminding everyone when Britain had an Empire and ruled the waves. That seems to be the winning formula.

[Gbye grey sky]

In your opinion of course! Immigration is just a sub topic (though a large one) of the greater subject of having control.

I would also add that to say people are deluded just because they feel strongly about a subject could be seen as offensive.

 

Leaving the EU will be like a divorce in certain respects. Though undoubtedly far messier and complex than any divorce. At the start both parties might harbour hopes that the split can be amicable but once the layers become involved......

 

One of my favourite lines from the film 'War of the Roses' when Michael Douglas's character is telling his lawyer (Danny DeVito) that he can win against his estranged wife (Kathleen Turner), his response is 'that there's no winning in divorce, only degrees of losing'. So true.

[Paul1Perth]

I am afraid that at least the last 5 govt's have been urging everyone in this country to get a degree, the last thing youngsters want now is a job gutting chickens, order picking in a warehouse or working 10 hours in a freezing field picking sprouts, this is yet another example of the patronising and disconnected from reality view of the exiteers.

Big problem is a lot of those picking sprouts, working in a chicken factory or stocking shelves in tesco have degrees. They believed all the hype about get a degree and you'll have a good job for life. A lot of kids go and get a degree these days just 'cos there's no other option.

They pick the easiest course with the lowest hours to attend and then want to take a year off to go travelling after.

Not all their fault but the money is going to have to be paid back one day.

[newjez]

Big problem is a lot of those picking sprouts, working in a chicken factory or stocking shelves in tesco have degrees. They believed all the hype about get a degree and you'll have a good job for life. A lot of kids go and get a degree these days just 'cos there's no other option.

They pick the easiest course with the lowest hours to attend and then want to take a year off to go travelling after.

Not all their fault but the money is going to have to be paid back one day.

 

Apparently you need a degree to be a bank clerk these days. Keeps them off the unemployment figures while they are studying though.

[newjez]

It is commendable to attempt to make an economic case for leaving but an uphill task. So much of what is spent and received back (often in grants and subsidies) is hard to quantify. And whilst some money can undoubtedly be saved sending MEPs and bureaucrats to Brussels any savings here would have to be offset with the costs of doing business with the EU as an outsider. Norway pays more (per capita) to the EU as a non-member than the UK as a member.

 

You are better off sticking with the tried and trusted ant-immigration line and reminding everyone when Britain had an Empire and ruled the waves. That seems to be the winning formula.

 

I'm hoping it will be like the Scottish one, where heart says leave, head says stay. The best outcome is a close stay, which may give some ammunition for reform. The worst outcome would be a convincing win for either camp.

[newjez]

Hi

Just my perspective ,but remember iam living here ,and I meet many new people everyday .

Its breaking down roughly like this

 

Young and/or urban areas ...IN

older and /or rural ...OUT

 

 

My percentage of the people I meet

 

90% out

10% in ....

But that's just me

 

 

The in and out campaigns were in Solihull yesterday .

As the in campaigners approached people with leaflets,there was a lot of " no thanks" .

 

Strangely 2 of the people in the " in" camp that I have met have been elderly ,and are voting in for their grandchildrens future .....not for themselves.

 

In the sky news debates ( available online ) I thought Cameron got a mauling ,and Michael govedone quite well.

 

It is the most important vote,probably in British history .

I feel Britain is in the last chance saloon ...i will be voting OUT ...so will most of the people I know

 

SHORT TERM PAIN FOR LONG TERM GAIN

 

 

Could you expand on this? Most people I know are stay or undecided. Most of the stays are wish we could leave but. Some of my north London family wants to leave, but they are lapping up the hard right immigration arguments.

 

What sort of people want to leave?

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/03/21/eu-referendum-who-in-britain-wants-to-leave-and-who-wants-to-rem/

[Wa7]

I'm hoping it will be like the Scottish one, where heart says leave, head says stay. The best outcome is a close stay, which may give some ammunition for reform. The worst outcome would be a convincing win for either camp.

 

Absolutely, I am voting out but if it's remain then hopefully a very close call, the government needs a rocket up its arse and this could be it.

[miw54]

Reasoned debate is one thing.

 

However today my wife and two toddlers were pursued down the street aggressively by a leave canvasser who would not leave them alone (despite being clear initially that mind was made up to remain) with dire warnings of "foreigners" moving into the area - note no other argument was put forward in relation to economics or services.

 

 

Whilst there may be those who support the economic argument for leave (that I disagree with) it seems that increasingly immigrants are being used as the scapegoat for valid issues in the country.

 

It's a good thing that history shows that this sort of xenophobic behaviour doesn't end badly.

 

People are also being targeted aggressively by Remain campaigners too who are equally putting on pressure with scaremongering stories of what will happen in the event of a Brexit, when the truth is that no-one knows for sure either way. However, I think to label genuine concerns about the impact of uncontrolled immigration as 'xenophobia' is typical of the Remain camp and grossly unfair to those who are already experiencing the downside of the increasing numbers that are entering the UK. Unless you know what it is like to be unable to get a job unless you are willing to take very low pay, unless you walk down a main street in your city and see the tents occupied by EU nationals who can't get work here but completely disregard the requirement to leave after 6 months, unless you are constantly harassed by EU beggars as you try to do your shopping, unless you are one of the hundreds of thousands of both British born and British nationals who are struggling to get housing, unless you are a person who cannot get medical appointments or medical treatment because the NHS is heaving under the demand, then you cannot really understand the issues. There is also the added concerns of the influx of foreign criminals who, even when caught and convicted, cannot currently be easily deported as Brussels prevents this from taking place. Most people I know who are voting to leave are not xenophobic. The UK is probably the most welcoming and tolerant country in the world where migrants who are able to settle and contribute to the country are truly valued. Diversity and multiculturalism are accepted and encouraged. The issue about immigration is not about hate or fear of the people from other countries, it is all about management and control which will ultimately benefit both the immigrants and the indigenous population.

It is worth remembering that when David Cameron tried to negotiate a deal for the UK to help control migration he was virtually sent packing. This spoke volumes to me as it demonstrated just how little impact the UK has as a voice in the EU. The UK may have a place at the table but not a voice. In reality, the EU only wants the UK for its monetary contribution and not for its views. The president of France described the UK as a 'constantly crying child', leaders within the EU have pointed out that the UK will be 'punished' regardless of whether it leaves or stays due to the upset already caused by the referendum. This is because many people in other countries are closely watching what happens as they, too, are not happy with being in the EU and may well start demanding to leave. It is these things that have swung my vote from Remain to Leave as I believe the UK influence will become less and less within the EU. It is basically becoming a dictatorship. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, it is not going to be an easy ride but individuals should be allowed to make up their own minds without having derogatory comments aimed at them.

[Gbye grey sky]

Most of the campaigning by Cameron and his cohorts has been poor I agree and there is a strong feeling that they may have overplayed their hand or at the very least not set out how and why 'Leave' could potentially be so damaging to Britain's economic well-being. Also Cameron's pleading for reforms ahead of the referendum was humiliating and no amount of spin can disguise that.

 

That said the picture you paint of Britain in 2016 sounds somewhat apocalyptic. Many regular posters have returned to the UK and are full of praise for the lifestyle they are enjoying there. It really cannot be that bad surely otherwise they would all be hotfooting it back to Oz (and they most definitely are not).

 

Paradoxically one of the reasons for increased migration has been Britain's relative success in recovering from the GFC (for which immigrants have also played no small part - another paradox).

 

It has been an odd campaign because if you vote Remain you kind of know what will happen, good and bad, as it is more of the same. Brexit, on the other hand, is much more of a leap of faith. But the uncertainty of what will happen post Brexit is going to panic investors for sure. They fret over much less. If that then leads to calls again for a break up of the UK this will exacerbate things further. Once financial markets start to panic it snowballs and the result can be chaos; recent history tells us that.

 

Every major financial institution has been sending out warning messages about Brexit. Of course we can say that it will be bad for them and not the man on the street but the banking collapse has not impacted on the wealthy or privileged at all and they would hedge their investments, move their money overseas and continue as usual. It is certainly possible that Brexit could become the catalyst for another crisis and, if it was, the UK would bear the full brunt. And we all know who ultimately pays the price for a financial crisis.

[newjez]

Most of the campaigning by Cameron and his cohorts has been poor I agree and there is a strong feeling that they may have overplayed their hand or at the very least not set out how and why 'Leave' could potentially be so damaging to Britain's economic well-being. Also Cameron's pleading for reforms ahead of the referendum was humiliating and no amount of spin can disguise that.

 

That said the picture you paint of Britain in 2016 sounds somewhat apocalyptic. Many regular posters have returned to the UK and are full of praise for the lifestyle they are enjoying there. It really cannot be that bad surely otherwise they would all be hotfooting it back to Oz (and they most definitely are not).

 

Paradoxically one of the reasons for increased migration has been Britain's relative success in recovering from the GFC (for which immigrants have also played no small part - another paradox).

 

It has been an odd campaign because if you vote Remain you kind of know what will happen, good and bad, as it is more of the same. Brexit, on the other hand, is much more of a leap of faith. But the uncertainty of what will happen post Brexit is going to panic investors for sure. They fret over much less. If that then leads to calls again for a break up of the UK this will exacerbate things further. Once financial markets start to panic it snowballs and the result can be chaos; recent history tells us that.

 

Every major financial institution has been sending out warning messages about Brexit. Of course we can say that it will be bad for them and not the man on the street but the banking collapse has not impacted on the wealthy or privileged at all and they would hedge their investments, move their money overseas and continue as usual. It is certainly possible that Brexit could become the catalyst for another crisis and, if it was, the UK would bear the full brunt. And we all know who ultimately pays the price for a financial crisis.

 

 

The problem with immigration is those who reap the benefits are often not those who pay the costs. It is the Tories and their voters who most often reap the benefits, and they shall be in power regardless of whether we exit or not. If you are voting for exit , you are voting for greater power to the Tories , pure and simple. Labour are only going along for the crumbs.

 

The problem with Cameron is he is an idiot. He should never have called a referendum. After calling it, he got nothing so should campaign to leave. But he can't do that so he just looks like a prat. The leadership of this country is embarrassing. Because of the failing of one man, we could lose Scotland , exit, and lose Europe . What a legacy. What a fool. It takes alot to make major, Blair and even brown look half competent .

Edited June 9, 2016 by newjez

[Gbye grey sky]

The problem with immigration is those who reap the benefits are often not those who pay the costs. It is the Tories and their voters who most often reap the benefits, and they shall be in power regardless of whether we exit or not. If you are voting for exit , you are voting for greater power to the Tories , pure and simple. Labour are only going along for the crumbs.

 

The problem with Cameron is he is an idiot. He should never have called a referendum. After calling it, he got nothing so should campaign to leave. But he can't do that so he just looks like a prat. The leadership of this country is embarrassing. Because of the failing of one man, we could lose Scotland , exit, and lose Europe . What a legacy. What a fool. It takes alot to make major, Blair and even brown look half competent .

 

Same with so many things. Every time it is Heads they (the rich and powerful) win and Tails you (the rest of us) lose. You have to base the call on which turn of the coin you believe makes you lose least.

[miw54]

Absolutely, I am voting out but if it's remain then hopefully a very close call, the government needs a rocket up its arse and this could be it.

 

Well said. This is exactly what I think. Although I'm voting out I think the winning vote will be to remain but only by a slight percentage. I just hope that the concerns of the huge percentage that are voting to leave are heard and that something changes as a result. I'm not holding my breath though. Cameron and Osborne are very poor negotiators and won't have any influence in the EU. There needs to be a big shake up in Westminster.

[Metoo]

[VERYSTORMY]

I have often thought that the EU and the left in general hate the right to free speech. They pretend that is the case as long as people only say what it is that they like.

 

It now seems that is to be made law.

 

There are many of us that get a shiver when we hear the terms "state organised re-education" for social means. Well, it is coming back.

 

In future, we wont be able to debate things that we have on here such as Islam, as if we do, we may find ourselves not only receiving a criminal record, but being sent for compulsory re-education.

 

I have always believed in the principle that I may vehemently disagree with what you say, but, I would fight to the death for your right to say it. It seems, the EU most certainly doesn't.

 

It may be 2016, but to the EU it is very much 1984, as this will be rolled out to national law.

 

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/libe/dv/11_revframework_statute_/11_revframework_statute_en.pdf

[BacktoDemocracy]

I have often thought that the EU and the left in general hate the right to free speech. They pretend that is the case as long as people only say what it is that they like.

 

It now seems that is to be made law.

 

There are many of us that get a shiver when we hear the terms "state organised re-education" for social means. Well, it is coming back.

 

In future, we wont be able to debate things that we have on here such as Islam, as if we do, we may find ourselves not only receiving a criminal record, but being sent for compulsory re-education.

 

I have always believed in the principle that I may vehemently disagree with what you say, but, I would fight to the death for your right to say it. It seems, the EU most certainly doesn't.

 

It may be 2016, but to the EU it is very much 1984, as this will be rolled out to national law.

 

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/libe/dv/11_revframework_statute_/11_revframework_statute_en.pdf

 

The study paper produced for consideration as a proposed legislation is about tolerance and about objecting to the dissemination of prejudice in the media, it is not about curtailing free speech unless you define free speech as the freedom to make prejudiced comments about others and the freedom to vilify others with distorted interpretations of their lifestyles , religion or ethnicity.

[BacktoDemocracy]

People are also being targeted aggressively by Remain campaigners too who are equally putting on pressure with scaremongering stories of what will happen in the event of a Brexit, when the truth is that no-one knows for sure either way. However, I think to label genuine concerns about the impact of uncontrolled immigration as 'xenophobia' is typical of the Remain camp and grossly unfair to those who are already experiencing the downside of the increasing numbers that are entering the UK. Unless you know what it is like to be unable to get a job unless you are willing to take very low pay, unless you walk down a main street in your city and see the tents occupied by EU nationals who can't get work here but completely disregard the requirement to leave after 6 months, unless you are constantly harassed by EU beggars as you try to do your shopping, unless you are one of the hundreds of thousands of both British born and British nationals who are struggling to get housing, unless you are a person who cannot get medical appointments or medical treatment because the NHS is heaving under the demand, then you cannot really understand the issues. There is also the added concerns of the influx of foreign criminals who, even when caught and convicted, cannot currently be easily deported as Brussels prevents this from taking place. Most people I know who are voting to leave are not xenophobic. The UK is probably the most welcoming and tolerant country in the world where migrants who are able to settle and contribute to the country are truly valued. Diversity and multiculturalism are accepted and encouraged. The issue about immigration is not about hate or fear of the people from other countries, it is all about management and control which will ultimately benefit both the immigrants and the indigenous population.

It is worth remembering that when David Cameron tried to negotiate a deal for the UK to help control migration he was virtually sent packing. This spoke volumes to me as it demonstrated just how little impact the UK has as a voice in the EU. The UK may have a place at the table but not a voice. In reality, the EU only wants the UK for its monetary contribution and not for its views. The president of France described the UK as a 'constantly crying child', leaders within the EU have pointed out that the UK will be 'punished' regardless of whether it leaves or stays due to the upset already caused by the referendum. This is because many people in other countries are closely watching what happens as they, too, are not happy with being in the EU and may well start demanding to leave. It is these things that have swung my vote from Remain to Leave as I believe the UK influence will become less and less within the EU. It is basically becoming a dictatorship. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, it is not going to be an easy ride but individuals should be allowed to make up their own minds without having derogatory comments aimed at them.

 

Just tell me in which British city you have seen tents on streets with migrants living in them with a verified photo and I might almost believe some of the rest of this

UKIP inspired prejudice.

Edited June 9, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[Sandgroper]

Wife and I are registered from Oz, hopefully the UK will vote out then vote in a decent Labour Government with David Milliband as leader.............................might even move back if that happened!!

[legoman]

Cameron is such a weak leader that I suspect when he leaves any EU meetings they snigger at him behind his back, The only argument I see from the Brexit campaign is immigration. Surely there is more to it, and really, do we believe the money saved from th EU if we leave will be spent on NHS and education. However everytime the brexit vote is deemed to be in front at the polls the pound weakens. There has been no definite plans either way. I see immigration has been a problem with voters for years in the UK and in Europe and yet the issue has not been addressed, I think more should have been done on that issue as it is the only argument brexit has. but the reality is if we do leave the EU then it is more down to the incompetence of a weak prime minister. I have sold house, should be in region of 250k pounds to transfer over, even a slight drop in the pound will be a lot of money 'lost'. A remain vote would be the opposite.

[legoman]

I have never voted tory but really labour?, ruined the country, ruined many peoples pensions, Blair started out fine then grew horns, many of our military killed on inveneted stories, TBH, not one of the parties have covered themselves in glory for years, Thatcher made mistakes but if she were to be making a visit to the EU in her prime they would have been shaking in their boots on her arrival. tough leadership is what the UK needs

[VERYSTORMY]

The study paper produced for consideration as a proposed legislation is about tolerance and about objecting to the dissemination of prejudice in the media, it is not about curtailing free speech unless you define free speech as the freedom to make prejudiced comments about others and the freedom to vilify others with distorted interpretations of their lifestyles , religion or ethnicity.

 

Of course it is about curtailing free speech. It isn't about vilifying people, but there is a right, or should be, that allows people to ask very serious questions about how some groups behave and their beliefs. That is something that already hasn't happened enough as every time it does, the left just go down to the same tactics as you and say that such talk is prejudiced and anyone who does it is a xenophobe. But, usually without ever addressing the actual debate.

[BacktoDemocracy]

Wife and I are registered from Oz, hopefully the UK will vote out then vote in a decent Labour Government with David Milliband as leader.............................might even move back if that happened!!

Have you registered to vote, I don't think that tactic will work, if we come out it will not matter who is in power the country will be a kind of banana Ruritania, a bit like a cross between Cuba and Chile in its despot era.

No one is going to make any difference until the neo liberal austerity, free market agenda is repudiated by the EU and the USA. The IMF is starting to become critical of it as a economic doctrine and if the Republicans win in the USA next then the mess at the end of that may bring about a complete reversal in the world's acceptance of it a as the answer to the world's future.

Edited June 9, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[BacktoDemocracy]

Of course it is about curtailing free speech. It isn't about vilifying people, but there is a right, or should be, that allows people to ask very serious questions about how some groups behave and their beliefs. That is something that already hasn't happened enough as every time it does, the left just go down to the same tactics as you and say that such talk is prejudiced and anyone who does it is a xenophobe. But, usually without ever addressing the actual debate.

 

Just tell me what the debate is and exactly what the issues are with some real verified statistics and what it is you will achieve as an outcome from the debate and show me examples of the successful implementation of whatever your proposals are, and show me that the implementation will not mean people have to suffer consequences that should not be imposed by one sector of humanity on another, or do you advocate condemning certain faiths, nationalities and races to everlasting purgatory merely because of accidents of birth.

Or is the debate simply about a view that as white English speaking British we are superior to all these lesser people and have a god given right to impose our will upon them.

In the UK there were no immigration controls until 1905 when they were introduced to keep out those fiends the Jews from Russia and eastern europe, the same hysteria, the same justifications and the same vilification.

Edited June 9, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy