eu referendum update

[Pommie]

My two pennies worth for what its worth... I was born and bred in the North East of England (labour heartland / working class at its very best). My father was a hard working painter & decorator and my mother a factory worker... I left school with one GCSE (in woodwork - I made an awesome coffee table)... yet somehow I managed to qualify as an accountant and have progessed in my career working both nationally and internationally as an Finance Director for several FTSE 100 multinational organisations.

 

I watch as my childhood friends in the North East rave for Brexit and I really understand the nationalist pride that drives these feelings.... My parents also are firm Brexit supporters..

 

However, from my experience of international investing and being heavily involved in currency management, I can 100% tell you, that the impact of Brexit will see international investors sell off the Pound, which causes it to crash. This immediately causes everyday prices to rise (petrol, bananas, etc) because we rely so much on imports. This drives up inflation and hence interest rates on mortgages and loans.

 

But this isn't the worst of it.. Similar to the investors who pull their money away from sterling (why would you keep it in Sterling if you expect it to be worth less in the days and weeks ahead), international companies avoid investing in the UK until they get clarity on our trade deals, which will take years... instead they will invest in other global hubs (either manufacturing, financial services, Oil & Gas for example). Remember, every government is trying to attract investment - others will take advantage of our Brexit decision and lobby for investors at our expense..!!

 

So, when investment falls, inflation rises and imports become more expensive, our manufacturing industries are hit and hit hard. Thats assuming we still have free trade access to markets, which is a problem for down the line (it is IMPOSSIBLE to re-negotiate all of our existing global trade deals in the next 2 years that we currently have through the EU)...

 

Companies who today invest in car plants in the UK to sell overseas, begin to move production abroad. I could rant on, but you get the point...

 

Now, Boris will tell you not to worry and Farage will say, so what if the pound falls.... But when the job losses begin to mount, Boris won't be there to pay your mortgage..

 

I have no allegiance to Cameron and his cronies - but I know the brexit team are seriously underplaying the impact for the country.

[Gbye grey sky]

It is dangerously complacent to shrug off market turmoil by saying that it is a short term blip that will correct itself quickly.

 

The reality is that most of the world is still reeling from the 2008 GFC and Britain was very much at the heart of it and impacted more than most. This GFC could have (and still can) mirror the 1929 crash which brought misery to the poor and working people in Europe and the USA in the 1930s and contributed to the rise of Adolf Hitler in Germany.

 

The systemic problems uncovered in 2008 have not gone away but governments have been (quite successfully) papering over the cracks in the walls. As it is the problems may require a whole generation to play out. Europe's and the wider world economies are on a knife edge which is why issues with a country like Greece continue to represent a potential tipping point for the global economy.

 

If the English do vote to Leave next week this is a major enough event to be that tipping point for the global economy. Initially the negative impact will be most keenly felt in the UK and continental Europe but make no mistake the effects would be global.

 

That the UK electorate would be voting against all the major parties and institutions that make up the country would render the country ungovernable. Scotland would scramble to separate from England quite rightly. Wales would be well advised to do the same. That England would have no effective government would, on its own, be a cause of major market and investment panic.

 

Disentangling EU legislation and trade agreements would take many years and would tie up any Government so they would have little opportunity to manage the ensuing crisis and attempt to reassure business and investors.

 

Remember that Churchill was derided as a scaremonger when he warned of the possible consequences of the Versaille Treaty and the political machinations in Germany. There are very clear warnings this time. Peace in Europe is not a given and - needs to be nurtured - just because there has been no major war in 70 years. In terms of history 70 years is a very short time frame indeed.

[amibovered]

If Britain gets out, and Scotland goes on their own, they won't get into the EU, no way, Spain have already said they'd veto Scotland joining, for obvious reasons.

[newjez]

Do you think they planned the referendum in the middle of euro 2016 football on purpose?

[amibovered]

[h=2]Wolfgang Schäuble[/h]

Europe will also work without Britain if necessary. At some point, the British will realise they have taken the wrong decision. And then we will accept them back one day, if that's what they want.

[VERYSTORMY]

My two pennies worth for what its worth... I was born and bred in the North East of England (labour heartland / working class at its very best). My father was a hard working painter & decorator and my mother a factory worker... I left school with one GCSE (in woodwork - I made an awesome coffee table)... yet somehow I managed to qualify as an accountant and have progessed in my career working both nationally and internationally as an Finance Director for several FTSE 100 multinational organisations.

 

I watch as my childhood friends in the North East rave for Brexit and I really understand the nationalist pride that drives these feelings.... My parents also are firm Brexit supporters..

 

However, from my experience of international investing and being heavily involved in currency management, I can 100% tell you, that the impact of Brexit will see international investors sell off the Pound, which causes it to crash. This immediately causes everyday prices to rise (petrol, bananas, etc) because we rely so much on imports. This drives up inflation and hence interest rates on mortgages and loans.

 

But this isn't the worst of it.. Similar to the investors who pull their money away from sterling (why would you keep it in Sterling if you expect it to be worth less in the days and weeks ahead), international companies avoid investing in the UK until they get clarity on our trade deals, which will take years... instead they will invest in other global hubs (either manufacturing, financial services, Oil & Gas for example). Remember, every government is trying to attract investment - others will take advantage of our Brexit decision and lobby for investors at our expense..!!

 

So, when investment falls, inflation rises and imports become more expensive, our manufacturing industries are hit and hit hard. Thats assuming we still have free trade access to markets, which is a problem for down the line (it is IMPOSSIBLE to re-negotiate all of our existing global trade deals in the next 2 years that we currently have through the EU)...

 

Companies who today invest in car plants in the UK to sell overseas, begin to move production abroad. I could rant on, but you get the point...

 

Now, Boris will tell you not to worry and Farage will say, so what if the pound falls.... But when the job losses begin to mount, Boris won't be there to pay your mortgage..

 

I have no allegiance to Cameron and his cronies - but I know the brexit team are seriously underplaying the impact for the country.

 

Yes, I think there will be major movements in the stocks and currency markets, but only in the short term. The markets hate the unknown, but also have painfully short memories - no better than goldfish. To see this, look at the way they have behaved with the Greek Crises. The markets went into turmoil. Then, the news dropped off and they forgot about it. Even though, the Greek situation is actually far worse than ever.

 

Or look at what happened 2 weeks ago. One of the most respected trading houses came out and rated most of the European banks - including Germany's as little better than junk that were destined to fail. Big swings against them, then nothing. They forgot.

 

As for global trade deal, no, we wont get them all re-negotiated. But, look at my comment above on this. The world, in the last couple of decades has become obsessed with trade deals, without actually stopping to look at if they are in fact a good thing. I would argue that often they are not. There are usually some winners, but just as many losers. Nor, do they necessarily even promote trade. Look at UK trade. We are in the EU and supposedly have gained 500 million extra customers, and so logic, if these are always such wonderful things, would dictate that UK trade would have substantially increased from the UK to the EU. But, in fact since joining, UK trade to the EU has fallen significantly. At the same time, trade to the USA, with whom we have no trade deal should be crippled, but in reality has grown in the last 20 years.

 

As for inward investment, I again disagree based in historical president. We had many of the car makers warn that if we did not join the Euro, then they would pull out of the UK. Yet, the very opposite has happened. In fact, the only major car manufacturing to leave has done so after receiving EU funding to help it relocate out, such as Ford Transit.

 

I think the biggest thing shaking the nerves of the market at the moment, besides uncertainty, is the bigger effect a Brexit will have on the EU. The UK isn't the only country with very deep anti EU feeling. There are a number of countries that if a referendum were offered, would likely also leave - Austria and Netherlands in particular, very likely Sweden and possibly even France. While the EU may survive a Brexit, there is no way of surviving another or more following. Indeed, I suspect, if the UK were to vote remain, it wont be long before we are back at the same position, but with another EU member leaving.

[BacktoDemocracy]

There were 2 extremely informative articles in The Guardian on 15/6/16 by George Monbiot , ( the European union is the worst choice apart from the alternative) and the other by Raphael Behr, (unlike life and the universe, Brexit has no simple answer ), both excellent comment and very balanced, anybody who has the time to read them I think will be left wondering what the right thing to do is, on balance I am still voting in but with a very large peg on my nose.

Monbiot's article I think is the most worrying with the belief that Boris and his lot are wanting to join Nafta, a USA inspired trade agreement which will make us a vassal state of the US, this is already causing problems for Canada and Mexico, co signatures to it.

Edited June 16, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[Gbye grey sky]

As for inward investment, I again disagree based in historical president. We had many of the car makers warn that if we did not join the Euro, then they would pull out of the UK. Yet, the very opposite has happened. In fact, the only major car manufacturing to leave has done so after receiving EU funding to help it relocate out, such as Ford Transit. [/quote

 

This is just not true; it is one of those false nemes circulating on Facebook. Not only is it a lie but it is also ridiculous. Ford relocated to Turkey to save costs. It would defy all logic for the EU to provide a grant to a non-EU country.

 

A falsehood is still a falsehood even if you repeat it ad-nauseum.

 

I know that some will believe that the EU Commissioners eat newborn babies for breakfast if some idiot sticks it on a Facebook neme.

[BacktoDemocracy]

Just watching the latest English football hooliganism in France, is it too big a step to draw some connections between the xenophobia of Farage and the Brexit gang and this outpouring of stupidity by these people, they should banned and their team sent home in disgrace, Europe must be heartily sick of the whinging , whining, self obsessed, low life's that think they have a right to go and cause mayhem in another country, is this what Brexit is all about.

[Gbye grey sky]

Just watching the latest English football hooliganism in France, is it too big a step to draw some connections between the xenophobia of Farage and the Brexit gang and this outpouring of stupidity by these people, they should banned and their team sent home in disgrace, Europe must be heartily sick of the whinging , whining, self obsessed, low life's that think they have a right to go and cause mayhem in another country, is this what Brexit is all about.

 

I shouldn't be at all surprised if the troublemakers were all in favour of Brexit. After all, if England are sent home, even though it was because of the behaviour of English men, it will no doubt aid the Brexit vote.

 

They do not appear to have any interest in the football.

 

I should add that there is undoubtedly a large number of genuine and innocent English football fans caught up in this.

 

 

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[BacktoDemocracy]

As for inward investment, I again disagree based in historical president. We had many of the car makers warn that if we did not join the Euro, then they would pull out of the UK. Yet, the very opposite has happened. In fact, the only major car manufacturing to leave has done so after receiving EU funding to help it relocate out, such as Ford Transit. [/quote

 

This is just not true; it is one of those false nemes circulating on Facebook. Not only is it a lie but it is also ridiculous. Ford relocated to Turkey to save costs. It would defy all logic for the EU to provide a grant to a non-EU country.

 

A falsehood is still a falsehood even if you repeat it ad-nauseum.

 

I know that some will believe that the EU Commissioners eat newborn babies for breakfast if some idiot sticks it on a Facebook neme.

 

Thank you for nailing that lie, too many lies being peddled by the Brexit camp.

They have copied Trump's campaigning methodology, repeat lies often enough and they become truths and make your campaign a single issue campaign which is simple and easy to understand with no ambiguities, make people think it's a simple issue and above all else appeal to patriotism.

[VERYSTORMY]

As for inward investment, I again disagree based in historical president. We had many of the car makers warn that if we did not join the Euro, then they would pull out of the UK. Yet, the very opposite has happened. In fact, the only major car manufacturing to leave has done so after receiving EU funding to help it relocate out, such as Ford Transit. [/quote

 

This is just not true; it is one of those false nemes circulating on Facebook. Not only is it a lie but it is also ridiculous. Ford relocated to Turkey to save costs. It would defy all logic for the EU to provide a grant to a non-EU country.

 

A falsehood is still a falsehood even if you repeat it ad-nauseum.

 

I know that some will believe that the EU Commissioners eat newborn babies for breakfast if some idiot sticks it on a Facebook neme.

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/briefing/fordfactory/10026411.Focus_on_Ford__The___80m_EU_loan_for_Ford_s_Turkish_Transit_plant/

 

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1159026.ece

[BacktoDemocracy]

[quote=Gbye grey

 

it was a loan though

Edited June 16, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[Gbye grey sky]

 

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/briefing/fordfactory/10026411.Focus_on_Ford__The___80m_EU_loan_for_Ford_s_Turkish_Transit_plant/

 

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1159026.ece

 

Interesting, though this is described here as a loan and not a grant which is falsely stated on the Facebook neme earlier quoted.

 

Mention is also made of much more substantial funding provided to Ford UK.

 

The articles raised legitimate questions about what was understood by the EIB (which clearly was part of a consortium of banks involved in the financing structure). What it does not say is what the outcome was or whether the allegations were substantiated.

 

Clearly Ford had made the decision to upgrade their Turkish factory (which already produced most transit vans) and close their redundant factory in Southampton to reduce their costs. This undoubtedly would have occurred with or without the EIB loan funding part of the costs. It would seem that the EIB were unwise at best to be a party to this loan arrangement given what followed.

 

The implication that the EU has only had a detrimental effect on car manufacturing in the UK though is a quantum leap based on this.

 

The EIB lends vast sums to businesses - about 90% of loans within the EU - with 7.77 billion Euros invested in UK enterprises in 2015.

 

 

 

 

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[VERYSTORMY]

 

Interesting, though this is described here as a loan and not a grant which is falsely stated on the Facebook neme earlier quoted.

 

Mention is also made of much more substantial funding provided to Ford UK.

 

The articles raised legitimate questions about what was understood by the EIB (which clearly was part of a consortium of banks involved in the financing structure). What it does not say is what the outcome was or whether the allegations were substantiated.

 

Clearly Ford had made the decision to upgrade their Turkish factory (which already produced most transit vans) and close their redundant factory in Southampton to reduce their costs. This undoubtedly would have occurred with or without the EIB loan funding part of the costs. It would seem that the EIB were unwise at best to be a party to this loan arrangement given what followed.

 

The implication that the EU has only had a detrimental effect on car manufacturing in the UK though is a quantum leap based on this.

 

The EIB lends vast sums to businesses - about 90% of loans within the EU - with 7.77 billion Euros invested in UK enterprises in 2015.

 

 

 

 

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I have only given you though 1 example, can dig out others.

 

Very few of the loans are ever actually repaid because of the way the companies then structure it.

 

Nissan in Sunderland has received huge amount of EU cash in loans and grants. It will never repay the loans as it perpetually never makes a profit and the loans are only repayable on making a profit. The cash flow is manipulated through international transfers to show it never makes profits.

 

Peugeot received a similar "loan" in order to move its plant to Slovakia

 

Kraft / Cadbury takeover very similar again - EU funding was the sweetener to move production to Poland - despite the UK government offering a loan to fully refurbish the factory the tune of £116 million.

[newjez]

You get nutters that believe in all sorts of things. Just because one took the life of a very special person, I don't think this should have any bearing on the debate one way or the other.

 

Let's remember what's important, that we aspire to live in a country either within or outside the EU. But one where people don't get shot for doing their job and peacefully following what they believe in.

 

Rip Jo cox

[Fisher1]

I'm voting out too.. you are right about the older generation voting in and the younger voting out.. I guess growing up to poorly paid jobs and missing out to other Europeans has got too many people's backs up.

 

I dont agree at all. I live in a very conservative neighbourhood and most of the older people here want to leave. It seems like many small business owners want to leave too. Younger people I have talked to want to stay in because they believe the EU protects their rights. I'm an oldie and I'm in.

[Gbye grey sky]

 

 

I have only given you though 1 example, can dig out others.

 

Very few of the loans are ever actually repaid because of the way the companies then structure it.

 

Nissan in Sunderland has received huge amount of EU cash in loans and grants. It will never repay the loans as it perpetually never makes a profit and the loans are only repayable on making a profit. The cash flow is manipulated through international transfers to show it never makes profits.

 

Peugeot received a similar "loan" in order to move its plant to Slovakia

 

Kraft / Cadbury takeover very similar again - EU funding was the sweetener to move production to Poland - despite the UK government offering a loan to fully refurbish the factory the tune of £116 million.

 

If the point being made is that the EU is an imperfect organisation then this is a given. I don't think anyone is making the case that the EU is wonderful, just that it is the least worst option for England by miles. I say England because Scotland will separate from England after a Leave vote within 2 years.

 

I don't think this is a great example though as there is a very strong chance that the EIB were genuinely unaware of Ford's plans for Southampton at the time of ratifying the loan.

 

Many of these stories sound like smears to me. Use an actual event and then manipulate the facts to make it appear that the EU's purpose is to wreck British industry. Far more likely that there are misjudgements made especially when tens of billions in loans from the EIB are being made every year.

 

What evidence is there that loans are not repaid?

 

 

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[Pommie]

All governments in all countries waste money in one form or another. You can't manage a budget of billions and not, in some ones eye's, be spending it unwisely.

 

If we exit the EU, then we will still have our UK politicians to hold in equal contempt... Millionaire's will still be millionaire's... big business, well they do ok, because they simply cut back investment and jobs to preserve their profitability... hedge funds, pension funds and international investors simply move money offshore to protect their investments.

 

It's the every day hard working factory worker, tradie and the British working class who take the brunt of any down-turn.!! And a vote to Brexit will be no different... People somehow think they are giving a poke in the eye to the EU commission... far from it, it may cause them a little indigestion as they manage the fall out and decide how to essentially charge us more money to access the common market, but little else will change.

 

I'm going to emigrate... I could laugh off the result either way... But for the love of the hard working British working classes I am solidly a remain voter... For those of you who are looking to vote Brexit and seek change..... You will get change... economic change... and it will hit you and your families in the pocket...

 

Be careful what you wish for....

[Wooba]

I'm confident that a Brexit will cause the breakup of the EU. There is just as much anti EU feelings throughout the other parts of Europe. EU needs the economic clout of the UK far more than the UK needs it. Without that fat wallet paying far more than its fair share it will be a serious struggle. I've never been more passionate about any political issue in my life. Please release the UK from this nightmare!

[newjez]

I'm confident that a Brexit will cause the breakup of the EU. There is just as much anti EU feelings throughout the other parts of Europe. EU needs the economic clout of the UK far more than the UK needs it. Without that fat wallet paying far more than its fair share it will be a serious struggle. I've never been more passionate about any political issue in my life. Please release the UK from this nightmare!

 

 

You do realise that if the EU folds we will have another GFC, another ten years of pain, and no one will be immune.

[Wooba]

You do realise that if the EU folds we will have another GFC, another ten years of pain, and no one will be immune.

Perhaps, but I don't think it will last that long and it's for the long term good. Kind of like surgery that puts you out of commission for a while bit improves your quality of life. The benefits significantly outweigh the negatives.

 

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[newjez]

Perhaps, but I don't think it will last that long and it's for the long term good. Kind of like surgery that puts you out of commission for a while bit improves your quality of life. The benefits significantly outweigh the negatives.

 

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Yes, like cutting your leg off when you have an ingrown toenail.

[Wooba]

If only the EU was an ingrown toenail instead of a massive parasite.

[Ken]

Why are we still bothering with this discussion? If you haven't voted by now your postal vote's not going to get there in time.