Is Dan Andrews doing the right thing?

[Alan Collett]

This is what CHO Brett Sutton said at the hotel quarantine enquiry this week:

“I can see that using a highly casualised workforce, generally from a lower socio-economic background, where that means that poor leave provisions limit how one can care for and financially support one’s family if unwell,” he said.

“In addition, where many of these staff might combine multiple, piecemeal jobs across different industries to maintain an adequate income, creating transmission risk. In addition, the security guard workforce is often represented by people with relatively larger families and larger networks of friends, which creates additional transmission risks should they become unwell.”

It is in this context that allowing a gathering of large numbers at a BLM march was surely grossly irresponsible.

Best regards.

[Marisawright]

24 minutes ago, Alan Collett said:

It is in this context that allowing a gathering of large numbers at a BLM march was surely grossly irresponsible.

We are not talking about whether it was irresponsible or not, we are discussing whether or not it resulted in an infection spike in actual fact.

I think people are incredibly foolish to gather in large numbers in the current situation but that's not what we are talking about.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Marisawright

[Alan Collett]

22 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

We are not talking about whether it was irresponsible or not, we are discussing whether or not it resulted in an infection spike in actual fact.

I think people are incredibly foolish to gather in large numbers in the current situation but that's not what we are talking about.

And I am submitting that it did - by sending completely the wrong message to a certain demographic.

To address what I think you are referencing though: I haven't seen anything to indicate there was a spread of COVID from those attending the BLM rally.

However is it not possible that if one of the security guard workers at hotel quarantine with COVID attended the rally it could be that the source is attributed to the security guard but that the spread was in fact accelerated by the security guard attending the rally?

The contact tracing data appears to be pretty patchy, and I can see why the State Government wouldn't want this sort of thing getting into the public domain.   

I appreciate this is verging on a conspiracy theory.   The bottom line though is that the BLM rally in Melbourne should not have been allowed to proceed - it elevated the risk of COVID spread and sent the message that gatherings were acceptable.

Best regards. 

 

[rtritudr]

2 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

I read that they had traced hundreds of cases to the BLM rallies just after it happened. Then it all disappeared from the news and media.

Stands to reason that you can't just have mass rallies, with hundreds of people close to each other, in the middle of a pandemic.

Didn't surprise me that they OK'd the rally in Melbourne mind you. Full of woke, cancel culture people.

You can have a look at the data yourself:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/oceania

The Victorian outbreak is the orange cluster at the top of the graph.

[Marisawright]

11 minutes ago, rtritudr said:

You can have a look at the data yourself:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov/oceania

The Victorian outbreak is the orange cluster at the top of the graph.

...and what does that indicate about the BLM marches?

[rtritudr]

34 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

...and what does that indicate about the BLM marches?

Nothing I'm afraid.  The genomic data shows that the cluster was introduced in the middle of May, probably from Bangladesh.  It didn't get into NSW until late June/early July.  The Queensland cluster is clearly distinct from NSW and probably originated directly from Victoria.

Based on epidemiological data we know that the first case was connected to hotel quarantine.  As to whether the BLM protest had any effect on the growth of this cluster there is simply no information here.

[newjez]

5 hours ago, Paul1Perth said:

I read that they had traced hundreds of cases to the BLM rallies just after it happened. Then it all disappeared from the news and media.

Stands to reason that you can't just have mass rallies, with hundreds of people close to each other, in the middle of a pandemic.

Didn't surprise me that they OK'd the rally in Melbourne mind you. Full of woke, cancel culture people.

Generally, if something just disappears from the media, it's because it was proved baseless. 

You will probably get a very small print retraction on page 57.

[Dusty Plains]

5 hours ago, Marisawright said:

You don't have to be a fly on the wall.   Just take a look at some of the media conferences by the WA premier and the Queensland premier, responding to Scott Morrison's calls to open up the borders. Very strident.

Let's not sidetrack by talking about failures in hotel quarantine. We're talking about interstate borders.

No, lets do exactly that. The heading of this discussion thread is, after all "Is Dan Andrews Doing the Right Thing?" so lets not sidetrack. This thread is also not entitled  "How good are the Labor Premiers?" Start a new topic.

The answer is clearly no, when it comes to Dan Andrews doing the right thing.  He stuffed up big time and has been attempting to con the Victorian electorate to the extent that he really is their saviour after all and will lead them out of this disaster. 

The problem is that Dan is actually part of the problem. If there is fire, flood, storm, pandemic tsunami, you name it then there are several sins identified in universal Disaster Management principles when it comes to response and recovery operations.  Dan breaks sin N0 2,  whereby no person or group should make political or social advantage out of the misery of the population.  No 1 sin is that no person or group should make monetary gain or similar advantage out of the stress and misery of the impacted population.

What a guy!

[Rossmoyne]

7 hours ago, Alan Collett said:

This is what CHO Brett Sutton said at the hotel quarantine enquiry this week:

“I can see that using a highly casualised workforce, generally from a lower socio-economic background, where that means that poor leave provisions limit how one can care for and financially support one’s family if unwell,” he said.

“In addition, where many of these staff might combine multiple, piecemeal jobs across different industries to maintain an adequate income, creating transmission risk. In addition, the security guard workforce is often represented by people with relatively larger families and larger networks of friends, which creates additional transmission risks should they become unwell.”

It is in this context that allowing a gathering of large numbers at a BLM march was surely grossly irresponsible.

Best regards.

And what he didn't say but alluded to, was that the majority of these workers came from the islamic community, as that is where a large majority of the casual security staff come from.

[Rossmoyne]

On 17/09/2020 at 16:26, Jon the Hat said:

I tend to think the other states have been incredibly lucky.  Australia overall has been.  I can't see it lasting, although obviously I hope it does.  There will come a tipping point when the risk to the economy outweighs all other concerns, becuase without money there is no standard of living or healthcare.  That point is soon in Vic i think.

WA has only been lucky because we have a Premier who has held fast against not opening the state border to the rest of Australia.  I didn't vote for him and have never voted Labor and never will, but Mark McGowan was steadfast in keeping WA borders closed, and that is why we have no community transmission in WA.   However now the power has gone to his head and he thinks he is invinsible.  Where that goes in WA is anyone's guess.  I thank him for closing our borders to keep us safe, but I now feel we need to open up to other states with minimal or no community spread.

[SWMOY04]

"Is Dan Andrews doing the right thing?"

 

define "right"

define the rules of determination

 

however, if I am forced to answer without the above, i would say he is definitely making mistakes....just like ANY of the leaders who are making mistakes as we are dealing with something the workd has not faced before.

 

"Could he do better in the aspects that selfishly please me?" Oh hell yes, he most definately can do better!! 

[Marisawright]

27 minutes ago, SWMOY04 said:

"Is Dan Andrews doing the right thing?"

 

define "right"

define the rules of determination

 

however, if I am forced to answer without the above, i would say he is definitely making mistakes....just like ANY of the leaders who are making mistakes as we are dealing with something the workd has not faced before.

 

"Could he do better in the aspects that selfishly please me?" Oh hell yes, he most definately can do better!! 

Exactly.   Everyone can be an expert, after the fact. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[SWMOY04]

4 hours ago, Marisawright said:

Exactly.   Everyone can be an expert, after the fact. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

what I would give to have some of the armchair critics being given Andrews/Morrison/Trump/Johnson office and watch them implement their "wisdom"...and also face opposing "logic" from those who don't agree with them.

I am by far an Andrews supporter, quite far. But i do not envy the man and the position he finds himself in. The best I can do as a citizen of Victoria is to be supportive and do what (at least to me) seems the reasonable thing. 

Yes, when the time is right, we will roast him over the coals using hindsight for the hotel security gaffes etc and other things we are yet aware of.

for context, I'm only just now watching a documentary, "Challenger:The Final Flight" about the 1986 explosion of the spacecraft. 

I am sure, my children will be the ones to criticize Andrews and his peers around the world because by then they will know every single thing there is to know.

 

to pretend one knows, now, what is wrong and right to do...without the full support and resources that possibly only a government or an organisation as big as a government can provide (eg Tesla, Apple, Samsung)...and only based on one side of the internet/media....is quite simply ...delusional

 

Andrews is not right.... neither is he wrong.

 

i believe he is doing the best according to what he believes and from the consensus of those around him, with the full knowledge that each and every decision he is making is going to get criticized when the dust settles and if he does anything illegal, he will face the full force of the law

[Mike@Bonbeach]

And now we have the SE Melbourne cluster, latest number is 43 in a matter of a few days, where, allegedly, 5 Afghan families breeched the CHO's rules, travelling and visiting each other's homes yet no action taken.

The one consistent thing about Dan Andrews is his inconsistency. And the CHO actually apologising for stating the truth that the cluster is a result of these Afghan families not obeying the restrictions.

[Alan Collett]

10 hours ago, SWMOY04 said:

 

<snip>

 

i believe he is doing the best according to what he believes and from the consensus of those around him, with the full knowledge that each and every decision he is making is going to get criticized when the dust settles and if he does anything illegal, he will face the full force of the law

Daniel Andrews may be doing his best, but he is out of his depth, as is Mikakos.

I agree it is a thankless task, but his character and background - and the structure of the State bureaucracy - don't lend themselves to important decision making in these most challenging of times.

I think the word is dysfunctional.

Best regards.

 

 

[Paul1Perth]

On 18/09/2020 at 11:06, Marisawright said:

Of course the conspiracy theorists will be making up stories too, so how do you know that's the truth?  Was it backed up by any evidence?  Are we talking about the BLM rally in Melbourne specifically or all over the world?

What do they mean by "just after it happened"?  Covid does have an incubation period,  you know. 

It was in The Australian and they'd traced a strain of covid, after the incubation period, to the BLM rally in Melbourne. I guess that's the only one they were concerned about, seeing as it was an Aus newspaper. 

Would be more than luck though if there wasn't outbreaks at other BLM protests all over the world. You just can't put that many people close together and not expect problems.

[Paul1Perth]

On 18/09/2020 at 15:53, newjez said:

Generally, if something just disappears from the media, it's because it was proved baseless. 

You will probably get a very small print retraction on page 57.

Either that or it's been cancelled and deemed politically incorrect by the woke mob.

[Paul1Perth]

14 hours ago, SWMOY04 said:

what I would give to have some of the armchair critics being given Andrews/Morrison/Trump/Johnson office and watch them implement their "wisdom"...and also face opposing "logic" from those who don't agree with them.

I am by far an Andrews supporter, quite far. But i do not envy the man and the position he finds himself in. The best I can do as a citizen of Victoria is to be supportive and do what (at least to me) seems the reasonable thing. 

Yes, when the time is right, we will roast him over the coals using hindsight for the hotel security gaffes etc and other things we are yet aware of.

for context, I'm only just now watching a documentary, "Challenger:The Final Flight" about the 1986 explosion of the spacecraft. 

I am sure, my children will be the ones to criticize Andrews and his peers around the world because by then they will know every single thing there is to know.

 

to pretend one knows, now, what is wrong and right to do...without the full support and resources that possibly only a government or an organisation as big as a government can provide (eg Tesla, Apple, Samsung)...and only based on one side of the internet/media....is quite simply ...delusional

 

Andrews is not right.... neither is he wrong.

 

i believe he is doing the best according to what he believes and from the consensus of those around him, with the full knowledge that each and every decision he is making is going to get criticized when the dust settles and if he does anything illegal, he will face the full force of the law

Your numbers of cases and deaths speak for themselves. Numbers dramatically down and trending further down. The nay sayers will say it would have happened without the latest lockdown but places that have tried to ride it out, believing they were over the worst have months of grief to come. Look at Europe, it's worse now than March.

[Marisawright]

1 hour ago, Paul1Perth said:

Would be more than luck though if there wasn't outbreaks at other BLM protests all over the world. You just can't put that many people close together and not expect problems.

I’m sure there were, many overseas demonstrations had no sign of masks or distancing and took place in countries where Covid is rampant. Bound to have been cases

[Marisawright]

1 hour ago, Paul1Perth said:

Your numbers of cases and deaths speak for themselves. Numbers dramatically down and trending further down. The nay sayers will say it would have happened without the latest lockdown but places that have tried to ride it out, believing they were over the worst have months of grief to come. Look at Europe, it's worse now than March.

I think the critics are saying it wasn’t worth it and we would’ve been better off to let the economy keep running even though that would’ve meant more cases and deaths

[Alan Collett]

17 minutes ago, Marisawright said:

I think the critics are saying it wasn’t worth it and we would’ve been better off to let the economy keep running even though that would’ve meant more cases and deaths

Are you focusing on COVID deaths, while ignoring deaths and illnesses arising as a consequence of the shut down to the Vic economy for an extended period?

Methinks you are perhaps being too simplistic.

Remember that Governments make trade offs in terms of deaths and damage to the economy all the time.

I submit things could have been done differently in Victoria without so much collateral damage - eg locking down movements in and out of care homes without shutting down the economy, and having better tracing procedures.

Best regards.

[Marisawright]

39 minutes ago, Alan Collett said:

Are you focusing on COVID deaths, while ignoring deaths and illnesses arising as a consequence of the shut down to the Vic economy for an extended period?

Methinks you are perhaps being too simplistic.

Remember that Governments make trade offs in terms of deaths and damage to the economy all the time.

I submit things could have been done differently in Victoria without so much collateral damage - eg locking down movements in and out of care homes without shutting down the economy, and having better tracing procedures.

Best regards.

Sweden tried that

[HappyHeart]

39 minutes ago, Alan Collett said:

Are you focusing on COVID deaths, while ignoring deaths and illnesses arising as a consequence of the shut down to the Vic economy for an extended period?

Methinks you are perhaps being too simplistic.

Remember that Governments make trade offs in terms of deaths and damage to the economy all the time.

I submit things could have been done differently in Victoria without so much collateral damage - eg locking down movements in and out of care homes without shutting down the economy, and having better tracing procedures.

Best regards.

What would you have done differently? 

[HappyHeart]

Great to see Victoria's numbers come right down. Won't be long now till things can start returning to normal with a great Christmas on the cards. 

[Alan Collett]

7 minutes ago, HappyHeart said:

What would you have done differently? 

Read my post again and you'll find out!

Best regards.