So Brexit now needs parliamentary approval?

[flag of convenience]

To be fair Kingston is not really Tory heartlands - until 2010 it was Susan Kramer for Richmond Park & North Kingston and until 2015 Kingston was Ed Davey - both Lib Dems.

 

Fair enough. Thanks for correcting my ignorance on the matter. I should have checked, although from what I gather at a distance, the Tory heartlands are in some form of disarray. Is that a fair assumption?

[flag of convenience]

Tory heartlands in uprising? Hardly. The seat was LibDem for the first 18 years since it was formed, Conservative for six years then back to LibDem when Conservatives didn't field a candidate.

 

Yes quite correct. That would explain the motion. Wrong assumption on my part posted without checking. I once lived nearby in Twickenham. Must check if that was a Liberal seat as well.

[amibovered]

TBH, I think the best thing would be to have another referendum, but make it binding, and hopefully have some proper debate beforehand, especially from the remain campaign, I think it would still be leave, but at least there'd be no ifs and buts.

[Ferrets]

Yes quite correct. That would explain the motion. Wrong assumption on my part posted without checking. I once lived nearby in Twickenham. Must check if that was a Liberal seat as well.

 

Lolz that's falling into the trolling category... :wink:

 

Twickenham was Lib Dem under Vince Cable from 1997 - 2015, though had always been Conservative prior to that.

 

I think there is a real swing and if May went to the polls would be back to a 2010 Coalition scenario all over again.

Edited December 2, 2016 by Ferrets

[flag of convenience]

Lolz that's falling into the trolling category... :wink:

 

Twickenham was Lib Dem under Vince Cable from 1997 - 2015, though had always been Conservative prior to that.

 

I think there is a real swing and if May went to the polls would be back to a 2010 Coalition scenario all over again.

 

Of course it was. I'm pretty sure it was Tory in my day. I assume without looking up Vince took the place of a Tory. I do recall him losing the seat, being the main or at least biggest ranking causality of the election.

[BacktoDemocracy]

So here we are today after comments in parliament and subsequently Hammond in Edinburgh and Davis in Cardiff last night, the govt challenging whether parliament gets to vote on brexit, David Davis and Philip Hammond desperately back peddling on a hard brexit and suggesting that we'll pay to stay in the market at a possible cost of £4.5B and how British business needs European labour and realising what the consequences would be for the country.

 

They have played everyone like a fiddle, let the arguments rage and show people the darkness of the abyss and then show them a way round the abyss .

 

They are now starting the warm up to prepare the ground for the biggest flip flop in history after pissing off everyone in the EU hierarchy, what a shambles.

 

I would guess that the govt team at this appeal are going to be done and dusted with their arguments in a day, let parliament have its vote and then everyone will have a finger in the blood.

'

Edited December 2, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[newjez]

It's a meaningless utterly predictable result, who would be able to tell if it affected policy anyway? you'd have to know what policy is now!!

It was a safe Tory seat. It was a huge swing away from the Tories. They campaigned on brexit. This will affect the tory policy. They don't really care what happens in outer bottom phuck. They are safe labour seats. But they do care what happens in safe Tory seats. You are not going to have a general election any time soon. Plus, the Tories are going to have to have a serious think about brexit or they will be whipped in their safe seats. You don't think they will care if they scrape through with a majority and lose a quarter of the cabinet?

 

This is significant. It wont stop Brexit, but it will guide it. It is very significant.

[newjez]

 

To be fair Kingston is not really Tory heartlands - until 2010 it was Susan Kramer for Richmond Park & North Kingston and until 2015 Kingston was Ed Davey - both Lib Dems.

Lib Who?

[newjez]

So here we are today after comments in parliament and subsequently Hammond in Edinburgh and Davis in Cardiff last night, the govt challenging whether parliament gets to vote on brexit, David Davis and Philip Hammond desperately back peddling on a hard brexit and suggesting that we'll pay to stay in the market at a possible cost of £4.5B and how British business needs European labour and realising what the consequences would be for the country.

 

They have played everyone like a fiddle, let the arguments rage and show people the darkness of the abyss and then show them a way round the abyss .

 

They are now starting the warm up to prepare the ground for the biggest flip flop in history after pissing off everyone in the EU hierarchy, what a shambles.

 

I would guess that the govt team at this appeal are going to be done and dusted with their arguments in a day, let parliament have its vote and then everyone will have a finger in the blood.

'

I'm tempted to put some money back into small or medium cap UK shares. It's all looking very positive. The plus side is that every project in the UK that is currently failing has a perfect excuse to close - political instability - without getting egg on their faces! Win Win !

 

Of Course Mr A Cist from up north might be a bit pissed - but they were always in the vast minority weren't they?

Edited December 2, 2016 by newjez

[Ferrets]

It was a safe Tory seat. It was a huge swing away from the Tories. They campaigned on brexit. This will affect the tory policy. They don't really care what happens in outer bottom phuck. They are safe labour seats. But they do care what happens in safe Tory seats. You are not going to have a general election any time soon. Plus, the Tories are going to have to have a serious think about brexit or they will be whipped in their safe seats. You don't think they will care if they scrape through with a majority and lose a quarter of the cabinet?

 

This is significant. It wont stop Brexit, but it will guide it. It is very significant.

 

It wasn't a safe Tory seat - there was a thumping majority in 2015 with the collapse of the Lib Dems because of the student fees fiasco (Uni Town and all that) - it was a close battle in 2010! A lot of the students will have parked their beef with the Lib Dems on the fees over what they believe to be more important (if that makes sense).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Park_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

However I would agree that this is significant. No Tory candidate against Zac was a clear sign that losing this one was not on the agenda.

 

Full Clusterf&^k on the horizon

[Ferrets]

So here we are today after comments in parliament and subsequently Hammond in Edinburgh and Davis in Cardiff last night, the govt challenging whether parliament gets to vote on brexit, David Davis and Philip Hammond desperately back peddling on a hard brexit and suggesting that we'll pay to stay in the market at a possible cost of £4.5B and how British business needs European labour and realising what the consequences would be for the country.

 

They have played everyone like a fiddle, let the arguments rage and show people the darkness of the abyss and then show them a way round the abyss .

 

They are now starting the warm up to prepare the ground for the biggest flip flop in history after pissing off everyone in the EU hierarchy, what a shambles.

 

I would guess that the govt team at this appeal are going to be done and dusted with their arguments in a day, let parliament have its vote and then everyone will have a finger in the blood.

'

 

Remember that bit where Cameron resigned, did a ittle hum as he walked back to the door and muttered "good" under his breath?

 

He knew that he'd shot the hard brexiteers in the a**e at that point because there was no serious politician that would fully go through with it.

 

May will duck and weave and let this get killed by Parliament.

[BacktoDemocracy]

Remember that bit where Cameron resigned, did a ittle hum as he walked back to the door and muttered "good" under his breath?

 

He knew that he'd shot the hard brexiteers in the a**e at that point because there was no serious politician that would fully go through with it.

 

May will duck and weave and let this get killed by Parliament.

 

I hope you're right, I think now it will be a complete fudge and may do for the Tories, their agenda on the NHS and social care and now blowing brexit off will open the door for UKIP and the Libs on the other side, it may be a pivotal moment in British politics, it won't be before time.

The Labour party has gone past its use by date and the Tories have been the plaything of the Free traders for the last 45 years, it's time for some realignment, I just hope it happens because things can't continue like they are without the country coming a real cropper, this bunch are intent on taking us down the American road socially and politically.

[newjez]

It wasn't a safe Tory seat - there was a thumping majority in 2015 with the collapse of the Lib Dems because of the student fees fiasco (Uni Town and all that) - it was a close battle in 2010! A lot of the students will have parked their beef with the Lib Dems on the fees over what they believe to be more important (if that makes sense).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_Park_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

However I would agree that this is significant. No Tory candidate against Zac was a clear sign that losing this one was not on the agenda.

 

Full Clusterf&^k on the horizon

it's possible this is a lib dem renaissance. But it feels too soon for me. But a day is a long time in politics.

[newjez]

I hope you're right, I think now it will be a complete fudge and may do for the Tories, their agenda on the NHS and social care and now blowing brexit off will open the door for UKIP and the Libs on the other side, it may be a pivotal moment in British politics, it won't be before time.

The Labour party has gone past its use by date and the Tories have been the plaything of the Free traders for the last 45 years, it's time for some realignment, I just hope it happens because things can't continue like they are without the country coming a real cropper, this bunch are intent on taking us down the American road socially and politically.

ukip do need to change their name, or find another meaning for the acronym.

[Perthbum]

 

ukip do need to change their name, or find another meaning for the acronym.

U Kidding Im Pissed

[Bungo]

It was a safe Tory seat. It was a huge swing away from the Tories. They campaigned on brexit. This will affect the tory policy. They don't really care what happens in outer bottom phuck. They are safe labour seats. But they do care what happens in safe Tory seats. You are not going to have a general election any time soon. Plus, the Tories are going to have to have a serious think about brexit or they will be whipped in their safe seats. You don't think they will care if they scrape through with a majority and lose a quarter of the cabinet?

 

This is significant. It wont stop Brexit, but it will guide it. It is very significant.

 

It definitely was not a safe Tory seat. You don't get such things around those areas, too many champagne socialists around those parts. This seat has predominantly been in LibDem hands and in any case there wasn't a Conservative candidate in the by election. So even if it was a safe seat, which it wasn't, they weren't going to win it when they had no candidate.

[newjez]

It definitely was not a safe Tory seat. You don't get such things around those areas, too many champagne socialists around those parts. This seat has predominantly been in LibDem hands and in any case there wasn't a Conservative candidate in the by election. So even if it was a safe seat, which it wasn't, they weren't going to win it when they had no candidate.

 

Goldsmith was doing a David Davis. He was a Tory having a tantrum. That's why they didn't run against him, as, after his paddy, they would have quietly let him back in. It was over a 20% swing ffs! True, historically it was a lib dem seat. But the lib dems are not a functional party ATM. They were slaughtered at the last election. Labour are a mess. The only effective opposition is the SNP. The Tories have lost a seat they held comfortably against no effective opposition. They had a 20% swing against no opposition. An established MP lost against a no body.

 

This is a needle to deflate brexit. This is Brexit's Waterloo!

 

From here on the government will tread softly softly. You'll be lucky if you get Norway. May's negotiating position has been crushed. The Europeans know it. That's why they are laughing. it's all over, and we are in danger of being in a worse position than pre brexit. All because of some silly internal Tory squabble.

Edited December 3, 2016 by newjez

[Gbye grey sky]

Goldsmith was doing a David Davis. He was a Tory having a tantrum. That's why they didn't run against him, as, after his paddy, they would have quietly let him back in. It was over a 20% swing ffs! True, historically it was a lib dem seat. But the lib dems are not a functional party ATM. They were slaughtered at the last election. Labour are a mess. The only effective opposition is the SNP. The Tories have lost a seat they held comfortably against no effective opposition. They had a 20% swing against no opposition. An established MP lost against a no body.

 

This is a needle to deflate brexit. This is Brexit's Waterloo!

 

From here on the government will tread softly softly. You'll be lucky if you get Norway. May's negotiating position has been crushed. The Europeans know it. That's why they are laughing. it's all over, and we are in danger of being in a worse position than pre brexit. All because of some silly internal Tory squabble.

 

You are perhaps overstating the significance. This was an area that was pro-Remain at the time of the referendum and still feels the same. Pro-Brexit areas doubtless remain the same too.

 

It may send some shivers through Tories who represent pro-Remain constituencies but bye-elections are notorious for registering protests and rarely are any kind of predicator of a future general election.

[Ferrets]

You are perhaps overstating the significance. This was an area that was pro-Remain at the time of the referendum and still feels the same. Pro-Brexit areas doubtless remain the same too.

 

It may send some shivers through Tories who represent pro-Remain constituencies but bye-elections are notorious for registering protests and rarely are any kind of predicator of a future general election.

 

But you may be underestimating it.

 

My Wife and I, friend and his wife all voted for Goldsmith in the General Election. By the mayoral election, post his stance on Brexit plus some rather unpleasant rhetoric regarding Kahn, my mate and wife voted Kahn and we went Greens / Lib Dems - can't remember the candidate but registered my vote anyway. One thing that stuck out was that we were all considered "safe" Tory voters so weren't canvassed so couldn't tell them we wouldn't vote Zac :wink:

 

The Brexit Referendum was not won because of Tory voters, it was won across the political spectrum - but now the Tories have realised that a high number of their voters will happily turn away from them because there is a big chunk of the centre right that were attracted by Cameron who are turned away from the Tories by IDS, Redwood, Rees-Mogg, etc.

 

Ironically now is the time that the Orange Bookers should be cleaning up - if they had Laws back they would start pulling a lot of Tory voters.

 

I think that unless there is a second, binding referendum (with compulsory voting) and a second question on the style of exit (hard or soft) that Brexit is now effectively dead and buried.

 

However, it could all go wrong again with the Italian vote on Sunday!!

[Ken]

I think that unless there is a second, binding referendum (with compulsory voting) and a second question on the style of exit (hard or soft) that Brexit is now effectively dead and buried.

 

 

Compulsory voting could easily be introduced but a binding referendum would entail a massive change to the constitution. So massive in fact that I don't think any court would be able to endorse the change - effectively making the referendum non-binding regardless of what parliament said.

[Ferrets]

Compulsory voting could easily be introduced but a binding referendum would entail a massive change to the constitution. So massive in fact that I don't think any court would be able to endorse the change - effectively making the referendum non-binding regardless of what parliament said.

 

Fair point - but if there were compulsory voting on the issue I think it would become easier mentally to treat it as binding.

Edited December 3, 2016 by Ferrets

[newjez]

You are perhaps overstating the significance. This was an area that was pro-Remain at the time of the referendum and still feels the same. Pro-Brexit areas doubtless remain the same too.

 

It may send some shivers through Tories who represent pro-Remain constituencies but bye-elections are notorious for registering protests and rarely are any kind of predicator of a future general election.

is it a twelve seat majority? And I doubt she'll get the lib dems on side again. This is very significant.

[BacktoDemocracy]

You are perhaps overstating the significance. This was an area that was pro-Remain at the time of the referendum and still feels the same. Pro-Brexit areas doubtless remain the same too.

 

It may send some shivers through Tories who represent pro-Remain constituencies but bye-elections are notorious for registering protests and rarely are any kind of predicator of a future general election.

 

I just wonder how much May is playing for time, I am starting to think she is trying to gauge what the likely reactions are to different scenarios and trying to judge just how serious various industrial players are about leaving, she has had one shot across her bows from Nissan and conceded, I wonder whether she is waiting to get more info about the financial services sector, they seem to have got to the point of getting floor space specced out in various places and started talking to regulators so she knows there is serious intent there and now she has seen that electorally it could decimate the party which ever way she goes, hard brexit and the Libs savage her in the Tory heartlands at the next election and the party is out for 10 years, go for a softly softly brexit and UKIP take the north of england, so who cares, but she has to cope with the loony right in her party defecting to UKIP.

Cue,lose the appeal against a parliamentary vote and let loose the dogs of war and stand back and let them all run themselves into the sand and declare another referendum with a range of questions?

There are so many scenarios, but I think its becoming clearer that there is no 'cunning plan' just 'wait and see' and hope the bejeezers that something comes up.

Edited December 3, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[VERYSTORMY]

The Richmond result is meaningless. It is one of the most pro EU constituents in the UK. It is one of the most out of touch areas with the U.K. as a whole, even out of touch with the rest of London.

 

For example, it has one of the highest number of households that have cleaners, one of the highest with private nannies, and one of the highest number of households with second homes in the EU. At the same time it is an area with one of the smallest immigrant populations.

 

Sonthe average Richmond resident, the EU means keeping that nice Bulgarian cleaner who is good and cheap and the nice Romanian nanny who will happily take minimum wage and feck the rest of the country.

[BacktoDemocracy]

The Richmond result is meaningless. It is one of the most pro EU constituents in the UK. It is one of the most out of touch areas with the U.K. as a whole, even out of touch with the rest of London.

 

For example, it has one of the highest number of households that have cleaners, one of the highest with private nannies, and one of the highest number of households with second homes in the EU. At the same time it is an area with one of the smallest immigrant populations.

 

Sonthe average Richmond resident, the EU means keeping that nice Bulgarian cleaner who is good and cheap and the nice Romanian nanny who will happily take minimum wage and feck the rest of the country.

 

It was 12th of the English remain constituencies and there was another 68 English remain constituencies across the south, May has a majority of 11 at the moment so not an inconsequential consideration, she only has to lose about 10% of those to be in serious trouble, it must be focusing her mind I would think.

It must have always been a factor in her mind.

Edited December 3, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy