So Brexit now needs parliamentary approval?

[BacktoDemocracy]

I am struggling to understand how they conclude that the original forecasts were pessimistic. Everyone assumed that a vote to Leave would trigger an almost immediate filing of Article 50 and that Brexit would be a hard Brexit (which still seems fairly certain). If that had happened we would have been in a wholly different scenario to the one we now have with this 9 month hiatus where the UK can reap the short term benefits of a currency devalued by 20% against all major currencies whilst still benefiting fully from access to the European single market.

 

Against that backdrop plus an almost inevitable 2 year Brexit window to March 2019 plenty of scope for short term profits. Yes, there is a lot of uncertainty, but while that can has been kicked down the road the good times can roll on a little longer.

 

Abso-bloody-lutely, bleeding obvious ain't it.

[VERYSTORMY]

Bythey seem to be making a huge assumption that they don't make a dog's breakfast of it. Recent events will cast doubt on that. In fact, at the moment I doubt they'll be able to organise the catering for the leaving party.

 

 

However, the Centre for Business Research advises that its own conclusions should be taken with a pinch of salt. The report states: "The best we can do is to construct a series of scenarios based on assumptions about future trading arrangements, migration controls and about the short-term uncertainties which could affect business investment in the run-up to the likely leaving date of 2019."

The working paper, for example, assumes that Theresa May prioritises immigration controls and manages to reduce net migration to around 165,000 from 2020. It also assumes an eventual free trade deal with the EU and a transition arrangement while it is negotiated. While these assumptions are likely, they are by no means certain.

The academics also caution that their conclusions do not amount to a rosy economic outlook for Britain. Real wages, for example, are forecast to be only slightly higher in 2025 than they were in 2004 due to the return of inflation and sluggish wage growth.

 

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-university-of-cambridge-treasury-forecasts-little-basis-in-reality-project-fear-2017-1

 

Actually, I suggest you read the report. Not a third or fourth hand account, which is what your link provides. It says nothing of the sort and is pretty lazy journalism with large chunks almost copy paste from the Gaurdian. Shame as they were once a half decent reporter who I used to subscribe with - abandoned when they copy pasted a piece on Samsung.

 

In case you don't, and I can understand why as, lie most economists they try to go overboard making themselves sound like a science she. They are actually a social science and shouldn't be thought of any higher in prediction ability. The report, is, like most reports written by economists (they would generelyh fail year one of science degrees on poor writing and yes I have an undergrad in economics) is:

All current predictions are crap

The government one is specially crap

the likelihood is that nothing much economically will change.

It is more likely that things will be fine than not.

 

 

A view I "largely" agree with.

People have become so eaten up with economist predictions it is pretty funny. yet almost none have the faintest idea of what study of economy is about in the slightest.

[BacktoDemocracy]

It is becoming clearer that the swivel eyed loonies in the Tories are still wanting to just walk out of the EU and are fighting against any concept of negotiations and that is at the root of there being no information about a policy because they are still frustrating anything sensible, this is not going to end well.

[VERYSTORMY]

It is becoming clearer that the swivel eyed loonies in the Tories are still wanting to just walk out of the EU and are fighting against any concept of negotiations and that is at the root of there being no information about a policy because they are still frustrating anything sensible, this is not going to end well.

 

There is little requirement the negotiation.

 

1 it has been established the being a member has provided no benefit

2 There is good evidence that being a part of the biggest corporate assistance program in the world has hurt UK jobs

 

Remaining membership of the single market is the worst possible scenario for the UK. It would mean we can be out competed by eastern Eurrope and which ever new countries join. It is the fast track to the worst aspects of globalisation.

Edited January 7, 2017 by VERYSTORMY

[newjez]

There is little requirement the negotiation.

 

1 it has been established the being a member has provided no benefit

2 There is good evidence that being a part of the biggest corporate assistance program in the world has hurt UK jobs

 

Remaining membership of the single market is the worst possible scenario for the UK. It would mean we can be out competed by eastern Eurrope and which ever new countries join. It is the fast track to the worst aspects of globalisation.

no disrespect intended vs, but as you have freely acknowledged yourself to be a highly educated man in his late forties who doesn't have two pennies to rub together, I'm going to make a huge assumption here that you are not some sort of economic genius, so I may take any economic leaning you have with a pinch of salt.

[Gbye grey sky]

There is little requirement the negotiation.

 

1 it has been established the being a member has provided no benefit

2 There is good evidence that being a part of the biggest corporate assistance program in the world has hurt UK jobs

 

Remaining membership of the single market is the worst possible scenario for the UK. It would mean we can be out competed by eastern Europe and which ever new countries join. It is the fast track to the worst aspects of globalisation.

 

So why has this not actually happened yet? And do you not think that a free trade agreement with the likes of India and China (if they ever came about) might make British industry uncompetitive by comparison too?

 

UK unemployment in the UK is low despite (or because of?) high net migration. Obviously there is no "evidence" how being out of the single market will impact that but suggesting that there will automatically be more jobs created if the UK is out of the EU is baseless.

 

I would suggest that the true benefits of being a member of the EU will only really become apparent should the UK cast itself completely adrift from it. Strangely one of your prime motivators for emigrating to the UK was a healthy job market there. Wish you could see the irony.

[VERYSTORMY]

So why has this not actually happened yet? And do you not think that a free trade agreement with the likes of India and China (if they ever came about) might make British industry uncompetitive by comparison too?

 

UK unemployment in the UK is low despite (or because of?) high net migration. Obviously there is no "evidence" how being out of the single market will impact that but suggesting that there will automatically be more jobs created if the UK is out of the EU is baseless.

 

I would suggest that the true benefits of being a member of the EU will only really become apparent should the UK cast itself completely adrift from it. Strangely one of your prime motivators for emigrating to the UK was a healthy job market there. Wish you could see the irony.

 

Pit has happened and on a massive scale. Look at a lot of the large factories in Eastern Europe. They were not based there. Gillette, Ford Transit, Cadbury. Many more. And these actually received EU cash to help them relocate and lay off thousands of UK workers.

 

UK unemployment is not low, discount the "none jobs" such as zero hour contracts and it is high. One in ten workers are now on zero hour contracts. Another one in ten are doing temp work.

 

Then add in the total disaster the EU is to young people. For example, I live not far from the ship yard building the new air craft carriers. Traditionally, there would be hundreds of apprentices. Today there are 11. But there are nearly half the work force from eastern EU. Free movement is being used as a means to stop training and rely on a free movement of people at the cost of generations.

 

If you want to discuss migration I am very happy to. In the last recorded 12 month cycle - till March 2016. We received a population equivalent of Liverpool. Did we built a city the size of Liverpool that year? Did we build all the schools, hospitals, train enough nurses? No.

 

The average immigrant earns less than 35k a year. This is about the point they are actually not a drain but a addition to the economy.

[VERYSTORMY]

no disrespect intended vs, but as you have freely acknowledged yourself to be a highly educated man in his late forties who doesn't have two pennies to rub together, I'm going to make a huge assumption here that you are not some sort of economic genius, so I may take any economic leaning you have with a pinch of salt.

 

You my be correct. I have a reasonable education, though am a severe dyslexic and struggle, I am an ex homeless person and from a pretty tough background. I though do think my education and background permits an opinion.

 

That includes university studying PPE (Politics Phil and Economics as part of which I was guest speaker at the Oxford Union. I also hold a law degree and a post grad in law then a degree in applied geosciences and a post grad in applied geoscience. Most of my recent work has been in applied economics of mineral systems such as liaison with government and forecasting everything from oil price to dollar movement and I count among my last immediate managers Mark Cutifancy (sorry Mark if you ever read this but you know I always fecked up your name) So, maybe I am not very well qualified to have an opinion?

[BacktoDemocracy]

Pit has happened and on a massive scale. Look at a lot of the large factories in Eastern Europe. They were not based there. Gillette, Ford Transit, Cadbury. Many more. And these actually received EU cash to help them relocate and lay off thousands of UK workers.

 

UK unemployment is not low, discount the "none jobs" such as zero hour contracts and it is high. One in ten workers are now on zero hour contracts. Another one in ten are doing temp work.

 

Then add in the total disaster the EU is to young people. For example, I live not far from the ship yard building the new air craft carriers. Traditionally, there would be hundreds of apprentices. Today there are 11. But there are nearly half the work force from eastern EU. Free movement is being used as a means to stop training and rely on a free movement of people at the cost of generations.

 

If you want to discuss migration I am very happy to. In the last recorded 12 month cycle - till March 2016. We received a population equivalent of Liverpool. Did we built a city the size of Liverpool that year? Did we build all the schools, hospitals, train enough nurses? No.

 

The average immigrant earns less than 35k a year. This is about the point they are actually not a drain but a addition to the economy.

But the UK government and business could stop these abuses of immigrants, businesses do not want to pay for training and want to pay the least possible and Govt could legislate to prevent this but equally in the UK socially people do not want to be apprentices in skills as they do not carry the social status that skills do on the continent because young people have been brainwashed since the 1980's that having a university education was the only thing that was socially acceptable.

[Gbye grey sky]

Pit has happened and on a massive scale. Look at a lot of the large factories in Eastern Europe. They were not based there. Gillette, Ford Transit, Cadbury. Many more. And these actually received EU cash to help them relocate and lay off thousands of UK workers.

 

UK unemployment is not low, discount the "none jobs" such as zero hour contracts and it is high. One in ten workers are now on zero hour contracts. Another one in ten are doing temp work.

 

Then add in the total disaster the EU is to young people. For example, I live not far from the ship yard building the new air craft carriers. Traditionally, there would be hundreds of apprentices. Today there are 11. But there are nearly half the work force from eastern EU. Free movement is being used as a means to stop training and rely on a free movement of people at the cost of generations.

 

If you want to discuss migration I am very happy to. In the last recorded 12 month cycle - till March 2016. We received a population equivalent of Liverpool. Did we built a city the size of Liverpool that year? Did we build all the schools, hospitals, train enough nurses? No.

 

The average immigrant earns less than 35k a year. This is about the point they are actually not a drain but a addition to the economy.

 

So, you object to job creation in eastern Europe and also want them to stay put. Seems like a recipe for unrest. Immigration is an issue of course but if there are worthwhile jobs throughout Europe it would not be a problem and the EU is working to aid this.

 

Zero hour contracts do not exist because of the EU. They are common here too.

 

It is less about what an immigrant earns and more about what they contribute. Too many people do not earn what they are actually worth in society. Presumably you must think that Eastern European Premier League footballers on £35k per week are a major benefit to the UK then. You have to look beyond the simplistic view of the taxes that they pay.

[newjez]

Pit has happened and on a massive scale. Look at a lot of the large factories in Eastern Europe. They were not based there. Gillette, Ford Transit, Cadbury. Many more. And these actually received EU cash to help them relocate and lay off thousands of UK workers.

 

UK unemployment is not low, discount the "none jobs" such as zero hour contracts and it is high. One in ten workers are now on zero hour contracts. Another one in ten are doing temp work.

 

Then add in the total disaster the EU is to young people. For example, I live not far from the ship yard building the new air craft carriers. Traditionally, there would be hundreds of apprentices. Today there are 11. But there are nearly half the work force from eastern EU. Free movement is being used as a means to stop training and rely on a free movement of people at the cost of generations.

 

If you want to discuss migration I am very happy to. In the last recorded 12 month cycle - till March 2016. We received a population equivalent of Liverpool. Did we built a city the size of Liverpool that year? Did we build all the schools, hospitals, train enough nurses? No.

 

The average immigrant earns less than 35k a year. This is about the point they are actually not a drain but a addition to the economy.

so should the USA leave the USA? Cos they face the same problem. You really want to fight globalisation by exiting a protected union and entering a ago free trade world where the UK will get raped by every time, dick or Harry? Your nuts. You don't think Eastern European stability is a good thing? Really? The UK has never had it so good. And probably never will again if we leave hard. I think a looser link with the EU is a great thing. But there is no need to get radical.

[newjez]

You my be correct. I have a reasonable education, though am a severe dyslexic and struggle, I am an ex homeless person and from a pretty tough background. I though do think my education and background permits an opinion.

 

That includes university studying PPE (Politics Phil and Economics as part of which I was guest speaker at the Oxford Union. I also hold a law degree and a post grad in law then a degree in applied geosciences and a post grad in applied geoscience. Most of my recent work has been in applied economics of mineral systems such as liaison with government and forecasting everything from oil price to dollar movement and I count among my last immediate managers Mark Cutifancy (sorry Mark if you ever read this but you know I always fecked up your name) So, maybe I am not very well qualified to have an opinion?

just saying, picking one report up because you like it may not be the best way to make money. If you are right about things, then why isn't the pound rising? I expect parity with the USD by April. The pound is really going to get squeezed unless May can grow a pair.

[Graemsay]

The average immigrant earns less than 35k a year. This is about the point they are actually not a drain but a addition to the economy.

 

The median salary in the UK was about £28K last year. As far as I can tell, £35K puts you into the top quarter of incomes. Most British workers earn less than that too.

 

According to InFacts, who aren't necessarily an unbiased source, most of the stories about the EU giving grants to businesses to relocate outside of the UK are myths. Ford shifting production to Turkey might fall into a grey area, as they received a loan from the EU at about the time they discontinued production at Southampton, but already had the Turkish factory.

 

Regardless of the economics of Brexit, I think that the politicians are continuing to botch the process. The UK is deeply divided on the issue, and Theresa May's secrecy and unwillingness to allow any debate isn't helping, nor is Labour's inability to hold the government to account.

[Gbye grey sky]

The median salary in the UK was about £28K last year. As far as I can tell, £35K puts you into the top quarter of incomes. Most British workers earn less than that too.

 

According to InFacts, who aren't necessarily an unbiased source, most of the stories about the EU giving grants to businesses to relocate outside of the UK are myths. Ford shifting production to Turkey might fall into a grey area, as they received a loan from the EU at about the time they discontinued production at Southampton, but already had the Turkish factory.

 

The far right have learned how to use social media to spread phoney new stories. It was especially evident in the US Presidential campaign.

 

The truth is becoming harder and harder to find.

[Keith and Linda]

Having just spent a few weeks back in the UK the word on the street is all good, lets stop faffing around get out asap and deal with things as and IF they come up!

as an aside I was talking to a Sikh bus driver whom has been in the UK for over 25yrs he said he voted out because the small country could not keep taking in all the immigrants, though his accountant daughter and law studying son told him he had to vote remain because it was financially better to do so!

[newjez]

Having just spent a few weeks back in the UK the word on the street is all good, lets stop faffing around get out asap and deal with things as and IF they come up!

as an aside I was talking to a Sikh bus driver whom has been in the UK for over 25yrs he said he voted out because the small country could not keep taking in all the immigrants, though his accountant daughter and law studying son told him he had to vote remain because it was financially better to do so!

yep, wrong thread I think, but good to know you don't give a damn about crashing the economy of the country you don't live in.

[Keith and Linda]

yep, wrong thread I think, but good to know you don't give a damn about crashing the economy of the country you don't live in.

 

Yes I suppose it was the wrong thread as it was an up-beat post! doom and gloom more suited to your posts.

Not sure how you arrive at the conclusion about what I give a damn about from what I posted? oops sorry yes I do now, you wanted top keep the doom and gloom side alive and kicking!

[newjez]

Yes I suppose it was the wrong thread as it was an up-beat post! doom and gloom more suited to your posts.

Not sure how you arrive at the conclusion about what I give a damn about from what I posted? oops sorry yes I do now, you wanted top keep the doom and gloom side alive and kicking!

no mate, I've had enough room and gloom. Trying to avoid that. Looking less likely. Waiting for the chorus of - how we're we expected to know that was going to happen. Actually, all my available money is in USD, so I buffered from the disaster that is unfolding. I feel sorry for those who haven't protected themselves. But let's not make this another brexit thread. It's about doom and gloom in Australia, if you bothered to read it. Edited January 9, 2017 by newjez

[newjez]

I found this interesting. Has may been paralyzed by the complexity, her need to control, and her lack of faith in her underlings?

 

 

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21713837-after-six-months-what-new-prime-minister-stands-still-unclearperhaps-even?&intent=&gclid=CNqCs4egtNECFawV0wodg0cBOg

 

If so, it doesn't bode well.

 

Train crash brexit caused by dithering driver.

[Graemsay]

This piece from Conservative Home argues that Theresa May's secrecy is a feature, not a bug, and a method of keeping the Tories together.

 

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/01/may-must-refuse-to-explain-the-details-of-her-brexit-plan.html

 

The problem is that the government is engaged in a policy that half of the country thinks is great, and the other half thinks is completely insane. This thread is evidence of the divisions, and there's been no attempt to heal them. In fact, a number of politicians are using them to further their ends.

 

Lastly, I want to throw this link in here. Research by the LSE suggests that support for Brexit might actually be slightly under 50%. So much for the "settled will of the British people". Also note the FT's research on demographics, which is mentioned in the article. If voting intentions don't change as people age, there'll be a growing remain majority by 2021.

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-is-not-the-will-of-the-british-people/

[newjez]

This piece from Conservative Home argues that Theresa May's secrecy is a feature, not a bug, and a method of keeping the Tories together.

 

http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/01/may-must-refuse-to-explain-the-details-of-her-brexit-plan.html

 

The problem is that the government is engaged in a policy that half of the country thinks is great, and the other half thinks is completely insane. This thread is evidence of the divisions, and there's been no attempt to heal them. In fact, a number of politicians are using them to further their ends.

 

Lastly, I want to throw this link in here. Research by the LSE suggests that support for Brexit might actually be slightly under 50%. So much for the "settled will of the British people". Also note the FT's research on demographics, which is mentioned in the article. If voting intentions don't change as people age, there'll be a growing remain majority by 2021.

 

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-is-not-the-will-of-the-british-people/

That was a very good article, thankyou for that.

I have heard this view before. The idea that May is throwing bones for her dogs to keep them occupied. What worries me is she isn't keeping them on much of a leash, and they are getting bolder. If she doesn't reign them in, her dogs may kill any opposition, if they haven't already, and she may have to open her larder and let them feast or risk being devoured herself.

Edited January 9, 2017 by newjez

[bristolman]

yep, wrong thread I think, but good to know you don't give a damn about crashing the economy of the country you don't live in.

 

I know you won't reply but 'crashing the economy' ? What signs are there that this will happen ? Even the Bank of England has said it was far too pessimistic and the UK economy is doing really well. You are sounding like that poster who said all the car manufacturers would flee the UK whereas in fact they are investing MORE.

[newjez]

I know you won't reply but 'crashing the economy' ? What signs are there that this will happen ? Even the Bank of England has said it was far too pessimistic and the UK economy is doing really well. You are sounding like that poster who said all the car manufacturers would flee the UK whereas in fact they are investing MORE.

Come on mate - I've said over and over again that if we leave the EU in a calm and responsible way then it will be a bonus for the UK. We get the best of both worlds. If we play hard ball - insist on things that are unobtainable within the two year timeframe - and basically behave like the buffoons that the govt have been behaving - we will crash out with WTO and it won't be pretty. Even article 50 without a plan isn't going to be nice if it happens.

 

With WTO train crash - you won't have to worry about people making up gloom and doom stories.

Edited January 9, 2017 by newjez

[amibovered]

I know you won't reply but 'crashing the economy' ? What signs are there that this will happen ? Even the Bank of England has said it was far too pessimistic and the UK economy is doing really well. You are sounding like that poster who said all the car manufacturers would flee the UK whereas in fact they are investing MORE.

You really must stop letting facts get in the way, eventually the remoners will get to grips with the fact the Europe hasn't been plunged into war, economic depression hasn't engulfed the UK and all the other "project fear" scare stories haven't come true, no doubt they'll say, ah but we are still in the EU, that is true, but so far none of the predictions have been realised, so I can't see why anyone would take notice of their doom and gloom predictions post EU membership, by the way I think the cold spell later this week is because of Brexit.

[bristolman]

Come on mate - I've said over and over again that if we leave the EU in a calm and responsible way then it will be a bonus for the UK. We get the best of both worlds. If we play hard ball - insist on things that are unobtainable within the two year timeframe - and basically behave like the buffoons that the govt have been behaving - we will crash out with WTO and it won't be pretty. Even article 50 without a plan isn't going to be nice if it happens.

 

With WTO train crash - you won't have to worry about people making up gloom and doom stories.

 

Your glass isn't even half full lol