So Brexit now needs parliamentary approval?

[amibovered]

But this can't be true, the "experts" have told us the EU will punish us, the EU doesn't need us, the UK finance sector will be cut off from Europe.

 

[h=1]EU negotiator wants 'special' deal over access to City post-Brexit[/h]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit

[newjez]

But this can't be true, the "experts" have told us the EU will punish us, the EU doesn't need us, the UK finance sector will be cut off from Europe.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit

did you bother to read it?

[VERYSTORMY]

yep, why would Australia want that?

 

 

http://dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/tpp/pages/trans-pacific-partnership-agreement-tpp.aspx

 

Land let us see how this plays out with a number of close neighbours with vastly cheaper labour costs. Trade deals never benefit the richer country - except for the rich. The EU is a classic example.

 

I wonder, would you support free movement of Labour in to Oz within this agreement?

[amibovered]

 

did you bother to read it?

Did you?

[newjez]

Land let us see how this plays out with a number of close neighbours with vastly cheaper labour costs. Trade deals never benefit the richer country - except for the rich. The EU is a classic example.

 

I wonder, would you support free movement of Labour in to Oz within this agreement?

the Australian labour market could certainly do with some external competition. I've never been a fan of free movement of people. Free movement of labour, if you have a job you have right of abode, I don't have a problem with, as long as there is the facility to control if it is having adverse effects on the local economy. We would have that right under EEA/efta. I would hope Australia would write the same controls into their trade agreements.

[Gbye grey sky]

But this can't be true, the "experts" have told us the EU will punish us, the EU doesn't need us, the UK finance sector will be cut off from Europe.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/13/eu-negotiator-wants-special-deal-over-access-to-city-post-brexit

 

In a divorce both sides lose. The negotiations will determine the degree of losing.

[newjez]

 

In a divorce both sides lose. The negotiations will determine the degree of losing.

all this is really telling us is the euro is an epic fail and the EU is on shaky ground financially. That's why they have all been coming to the UK to work. Damaging the EU isn't in our interests. They're our major trading partners. Neither is the EU damaging the UK in their interests. An EEA/efta transition makes the most sense for everyone. We just need to lock Gove and friends in a box.

[newjez]

Well, looks like we are approaching parity. Although these days, even that isn't a sure bet. Maybe people will see the clarity as a good thing? But I'm betting the pound will drop. The customs union is a red herring. You can't leave the EU and be in the customs union. I don't even know why people are mentioning that. We can form our own customs union with the EU like Turkey, and if we do that will cause no end of confusion.

 

Sorry for those looking to move pounds, but here it is.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/14/theresa-may-side-eurosceptics-major-brexit-speech-revealing/

[Perthbum]

Well, looks like we are approaching parity. Although these days, even that isn't a sure bet. Maybe people will see the clarity as a good thing? But I'm betting the pound will drop. The customs union is a red herring. You can't leave the EU and be in the customs union. I don't even know why people are mentioning that. We can form our own customs union with the EU like Turkey, and if we do that will cause no end of confusion.

 

Sorry for those looking to move pounds, but here it is.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/14/theresa-may-side-eurosceptics-major-brexit-speech-revealing/

Of course you can there are several countries not in the EU who are in the customs union.

[BacktoDemocracy]

So was it your surveyor that also said it was a perfect home you already had? however if your perfect home was full with a queue outside waiting to get in then not everybody would want to remain in there and would be willing to renovate and underpin.

 

I find your attachment to the UK very moving after 18 years in Australia, I would have thought you would have been bringing your political acumen to bear on the appalling state of Australian politics and the effect on its economy and its obdurate opposition to climate change.

[BacktoDemocracy]

all this is really telling us is the euro is an epic fail and the EU is on shaky ground financially. That's why they have all been coming to the UK to work. Damaging the EU isn't in our interests. They're our major trading partners. Neither is the EU damaging the UK in their interests. An EEA/efta transition makes the most sense for everyone. We just need to lock Gove and friends in a box.

 

Yes, it's called Pandora's box and there isn't one big enough for all the candidates.

[Home and Happy]

As we used to hear it said very often down under, Come to live in Australia, we welcome you, but be Australian.

[newjez]

 

Of course you can there are several countries not in the EU who are in the customs union.

I guess if you stretch the definition of countries. You have Monaco and a few UK linked territories. Edited January 15, 2017 by newjez

[Gbye grey sky]

Of course you can there are several countries not in the EU who are in the customs union.

 

Technically you can of course but it prevents you making trade separate trade deals with countries outside the EU so, in effect, a non-starter.

[Gbye grey sky]

Well, looks like we are approaching parity. Although these days, even that isn't a sure bet. Maybe people will see the clarity as a good thing? But I'm betting the pound will drop. The customs union is a red herring. You can't leave the EU and be in the customs union. I don't even know why people are mentioning that. We can form our own customs union with the EU like Turkey, and if we do that will cause no end of confusion.

 

Sorry for those looking to move pounds, but here it is.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/14/theresa-may-side-eurosceptics-major-brexit-speech-revealing/

 

It has been increasingly clear that this is the only viable option. 2 years is a tight timeframe for ratifying a trade deal with the EU so transitional arrangements will probably be needed.

 

The GBP fell 20% last year so the market has largely factored in a hard Brexit I suspect but I agree it is likely to fall a bit further. Personally I don't need to move money from UK until next year so have to hope that the ship is steadying by then - not that hopeful though.

 

The sterling fall will continue to brace UK business against the fallout but I cannot help but think that inflation predictions for 2017 have been understated. Most goods or raw materials are imported and oil is priced in dollars so prices must be significantly impacted or else profits take a hit.

 

Inflation, say at 5% by mid 2017, will fuel wage inflation too which will further impact prices and RPI. There will then be pressure to hike interest rates later in 2017 to restore price stability.

[newjez]

It has been increasingly clear that this is the only viable option. 2 years is a tight timeframe for ratifying a trade deal with the EU so transitional arrangements will probably be needed.

 

The GBP fell 20% last year so the market has largely factored in a hard Brexit I suspect but I agree it is likely to fall a bit further. Personally I don't need to move money from UK until next year so have to hope that the ship is steadying by then - not that hopeful though.

 

The sterling fall will continue to brace UK business against the fallout but I cannot help but think that inflation predictions for 2017 have been understated. Most goods or raw materials are imported and oil is priced in dollars so prices must be significantly impacted or else profits take a hit.

 

Inflation, say at 5% by mid 2017, will fuel wage inflation too which will further impact prices and RPI. There will then be pressure to hike interest rates later in 2017 to restore price stability.

they won't hike rates to combat exchange rate inflation. We will just have to suck the inflation up.

[Gbye grey sky]

they won't hike rates to combat exchange rate inflation. We will just have to suck the inflation up.

 

I agree but if exchange rate inflation leads on to wage inflation then the BoE will have to consider their interest rate position as inflation could spiral.

[Gbye grey sky]

I am puzzled how the BoE can forecast inflation rising in 2017 to only 2.7%. Is this political manoevring designed to limit wage demands for as long as possible? Everyone who goes overseas knows that their pound overseas now has the purchasing power of 80p compared with 12 months ago so it is the same for business.

 

Larger businesses keep currency reserves so that they can maintain price stability when there are exchange rate fluctuations but once devaluation looks permanent (as now) they run out of reserves and have to stop purchasing in one currency to sell the goods for 20% less.

 

Many businesses will be looking over their shoulder at their competition and assessing whether they should hike prices first or manage the process gradually with prolonged price increases. But in order to maintain margins wholly imported goods will have to rise by between 15-20% this year so an overall increase of 2.7% seems really unlikely to me. I will be interested to see if my back of fag packet economics are more accurate and my prediction that inflation rises to above 5% within 6 months is borne out.

[newjez]

I am puzzled how the BoE can forecast inflation rising in 2017 to only 2.7%. Is this political manoevring designed to limit wage demands for as long as possible? Everyone who goes overseas knows that their pound overseas now has the purchasing power of 80p compared with 12 months ago so it is the same for business.

 

Larger businesses keep currency reserves so that they can maintain price stability when there are exchange rate fluctuations but once devaluation looks permanent (as now) they run out of reserves and have to stop purchasing in one currency to sell the goods for 20% less.

 

Many businesses will be looking over their shoulder at their competition and assessing whether they should hike prices first or manage the process gradually with prolonged price increases. But in order to maintain margins wholly imported goods will have to rise by between 15-20% this year so an overall increase of 2.7% seems really unlikely to me. I will be interested to see if my back of fag packet economics are more accurate and my prediction that inflation rises to above 5% within 6 months is borne out.

the cost of the product wholesale is often a fraction of the cost retail. Mark-up for luxury goods is very high. Plus we do use alot of domestic goods. But some things will go up alot. Some things less so. Filled up at 113 on Thursday. 119 now at the same service station.

[newjez]

 

I agree but if exchange rate inflation leads on to wage inflation then the BoE will have to consider their interest rate position as inflation could spiral.

if they reduce immigration then yes, wages will go up and they will raise rates.

[Gbye grey sky]

the cost of the product wholesale is often a fraction of the cost retail. Mark-up for luxury goods is very high. Plus we do use alot of domestic goods. But some things will go up alot. Some things less so. Filled up at 113 on Thursday. 119 now at the same service station.

 

Aside from some food how many goods are wholly domestic I wonder. Even UK manufactured goods are largely reliant on imported raw materials, parts and fuel priced in dollars.

 

Yes, luxury goods are subject to heavy mark up but budget items less so. If you are suggesting that importers/retailers of luxury goods might be prepared to squeeze margins for longer then you may be right. This would imply that the poorer members of society will be disproportionately affected by rising inflation though.

Edited January 15, 2017 by Gbye grey sky

[Gbye grey sky]

if they reduce immigration then yes, wages will go up and they will raise rates.

 

That will be long term though as still subject to EU freedom of movement until 2019 unless they can wangle some transitional changes.

 

So you do not agree that high inflation in itself leads to higher wages? If not then most working people will be significantly worse off by the end of the year. Only those on state pension will be immune.

[newjez]

Aside from some food how many goods are wholly domestic I wonder. Even UK manufactured goods are largely reliant on imported raw materials, parts and fuel priced in dollars.

 

Yes, luxury goods are subject to heavy mark up but budget items less so. If you are suggesting that importers/retailers of luxury goods might be prepared to squeeze margins for longer then you may be right. This would imply that the poorer members of society will be disproportionately affected by rising inflation though.

exactly right

[newjez]

Well, at least we have some clarity

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/16/theresa-may-set-12-point-plan-brexit-vows-clean-break-does-not/

 

 

At least we'll have the opportunity to say I told you so, one way or the other.

Edited January 17, 2017 by newjez

[Guest parleycr0ss]

Anyone know what time her speech is ?