Anyone Else worried a Brexit vote will hit the pocket bigtime

[flag of convenience]

True but when we looked to move to OZ obviously the rates were different and to me personally it makes a big difference as to where we live and what we can afford. It's a hell of a long way to go to be worse off than before. Houses are not cheap and standard of living is expensive but this is just my opinion 

 

An opinion few, if any could disagree with. You neglected to underline falling working conditions for many as well.

[newjez]

When the gfc hit the uk back in 2008 , they simply shut sites down , houses half built were left until sold to be completed , where bricks were on site ready to build the next batch ,these were actually sent back to the manufactures something that had never happened in the two previous ressions, the way you are talking its total armagedon and it's not.

This is a quote from a London estate agent :

 

However, Ben Madden, the managing director of London estate agents Thorgills, said: "The mere fact that we had a result was as if a weight had been lifted and people started to make firm buying decisions again.

"Despite widespread predictions that sales activity would drop off and sellers would have to accept price reductions, that simply hasn't materialised."

 

 

 

 

Are you really this much in denial?

 

 

http://www.cityam.com/244688/construction-output-slumps-seven-year-low-brexit

 

 

I'm happy about voting remain as I don't have to feel guilty. But it would have been in my interests to vote leave as there will be shed loads of work for me. Sadly, this simply will not be the case for the construction industry.

[Rallyman]

It's not going to effect me personally , but I posted what a estate agent has said and your still saying it's totally different I think I would take his word over yours at the moment in regard to a market crash .it may get worse but at the moment nothing has changed.until you know the exact details on what deals have been done in regard the exit you are guessing what will happen.

I am not living in the uk now so can't comment from experience only what I read.

 

It only takes one person in a work place to drag it down if they are unhappy and boy can it have a major effect on the place and that's how I see the situation , why can't people see it as a new challenge and grasp it a look to what can be achieved.

[newjez]

It's not going to effect me personally , but I posted what a estate agent has said and your still saying it's totally different I think I would take his word over yours at the moment in regard to a market crash .it may get worse but at the moment nothing has changed.until you know the exact details on what deals have been done in regard the exit you are guessing what will happen.

I am not living in the uk now so can't comment from experience only what I read.

 

It only takes one person in a work place to drag it down if they are unhappy and boy can it have a major effect on the place and that's how I see the situation , why can't people see it as a new challenge and grasp it a look to what can be achieved.

 

Sorry mate, but if you are believing estate agents you are on slippery ground. I know what's happening, I'm here, property sales have fallen off a cliff. That may just be caution, or opportunistic first time buyers, but if immigration falls, you do the math. It's not rocket science that immigration has been driving the property market. Look at the Perth market now that the mining boom has slowed resulting in lower immigration.

 

 

I stand to make money out of this, (an awful lot this week in fact when the boe lower rates), and yes there could have been opportunities if the morons who drove brexit had a plan. But they have thrown a grenade in the room and ran for cover.

 

There will be a lot of work for me and my industry, but I feel sorry for the disenfranchised who thought they would be voting for something. They are like the few sad individuals still in France waving an England flag not realising the team has gone home. They thought they were voting for something. They thought they were getting something. Sadly they are going to be very disappointed.

[Roberta2]

Perthbum: you have failed to comment on the freezing of so many commercial property trusts. Plus the loss of the AAA credit rating within days of Brexit.

[Roberta2]

The FTSE 100 is higher than it was in the days before the referendum, giving the appearance of calm at the result. The index, which measures the value of London’s 100 largest listed firms, was hovering at 6591 on Friday, well above the 6338 seen before the vote.

However, the gains mask huge falls in the share prices of banks and housebuilders, which took a beating as investors feared a post-Brexit property crash. Insurers have also closed their property investment funds to withdrawals to stem the flow of redemptions.

There was also cause for concern in the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized firms, which stood at 17333 before the vote and finished last week at 16198, down almost 10%.

The FTSE 250 is almost quaintly British, with most making sales in sterling. For these companies the fall in the currency means they become less valuable whereas the generally larger, multinational firms in the FTSE 100, which earn most of their revenues abroad in dollars, climb in value.

Members of the MPC are therefore likely to discount the good news and focus on the underlying weaknesses. And they know that the apparently stable situation can only be celebrated by Brexiters because of the intervention the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which signalled after the vote that they stood ready to loosen monetary policy further in the event of a panic.

[Parley]

I read the other day you can get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage now in the UK for 2.89%. The lowest ever.

 

Who wouldn't take that up ?

[Gbye grey sky]

I read the other day you can get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage now in the UK for 2.89%. The lowest ever.

 

Who wouldn't take that up ?

 

Those type of mortgages tend to come with a substantial up-front fee and serious penalty clauses. Always worth looking behind the headline rate when it comes to mortgages.

 

I have just seen it (HSBC) and it has a low fee.....but requires a 40% deposit so to buy a house costing £250,000 you would need a minimum of £140,000 in the bank (allowing for stamp duty and other costs) so cannot see many first time buyers rushing for that deal.

[Roberta2]

(1) Anyone who realises the dangers (inevitability?) of global deflation. Bank of Japan and Bundesbank are being paid to look after huge amounts of money looking for a safe haven - which is why their 10 year bond rates are negative. (2) Anyone who fears he/she won't have a job soon. Just talking this morning with someone whose son bought a house in London pre Brexit and now wishes he hadn't. Works for a major US based financial institution.

[Zack]

It seems normal people are going to pay a very high price for Brexit. Even the leave lot have only gained a cosmetic win. Nothing major will change - except it'll take years to sort the mess out.

 

What a load of nonsense it all is.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Well we voted to leave like millions of other Patriotic Brits.Including our Serving Armed Forces and veterans. Britain was Much Better off before we joined the EU,and will be very much better off now that we have left.The Worlds Most Corrupt,Protectionist, Full of rules and Regulated Organisation the World has ever known.Accountable to nobody,but themselves. Apart from their Lavish Salaries and Allowances MEP's have their own tax system. set at 8%.I have two members of my family in the UK in Their Own Business.One has a Bakery the oither a Btdhes shop.They Told me Belonging to the EU is A nightmare. The Bakery has to abide by 134 Rules and regulations,before they can sell a loaf of bread. The Butcher's Shop over 350. The Only People That Will loose are the very wealthy ,and those receiving EU Bonuses.All paid By the British Tax Payers Anyhow. Normal People are not going to pay a high Price at all,A Cosmetic Win You Say. I think Being Able to govern Your Own Country ,have control on your own Armed Forces,Police Force,Ect is More than A cosmetic Gain? It won't take Years at all,to be better off. The IMF Chief Says the EU is on the Brink of Collapse.France And Germany Say Trade Between Britain Won't change.There's only 6 solvent Countries in the EU,And they want out.The Whingeing Remain Traitors ,Students and EU Citizens that Live and Work in Britain,The Younger Generation ,That won't work anyhow ect. Never Bothered to Vote.Well I'm Going Back And have Made $50,000 Already with the pound Falling. Which is Good for the British Economy.They Have Been Reducing Interest Rates to nearly Zero to get the Pound Devalued. So Brexit = Jobs and Growth. According to the Experts.Most on here have never lived in a EU FREE Britain So how Can they Keep on Whingeing,About Something they know nothing about? There's no Price On Having and Running Your Own Country .Hundreds Of Thousands Of Brits Gave Up Their Lives For Britain. But the Younger Whingers and Scaremongers Don't give a ****.About that. They are A National Disgrace.

[Rallyman]

Not all doom and gloom as some would have you believe from what I have read here , as some have said property is over priced so a fall will help those trying to get on the market, which is a good thing ? , as it's always been said property is a long term investment not a get rich quick idea over a average 25-30 year mortgage there will be ups and downs, my be a bumpy ride to start with but the uk has more going for it than you would believe by some posts on here can anybody actually tell you what is going to happen in 30 years No they can't.

 

04 July

There has been a barrage of negativity on the property market since the UK voted to leave the EU last month. But beneath the noise, what do the experts think will really happen to house prices – and do they think buyers should press on regardless?

[h=5]A sharp fall?[/h]SEE RELATED

UK interest rates expected to hit record low next week

Buy-to-let in spectacular rise and fall either side of stamp duty hike

Among the most negative predictions comes from online property portal Zoopla, which believes the average UK property value will fall £53,000 from its current level of £297,000, according to The Times.

That's a brutal drop of almost 18 per cent and would wipe "£1.5trn off the total UK housing stock". Thankfully, it's also an outlier.

Many will remember that before the vote, the Treasury also talked about a worst-case figure of 18 per cent, but that was compared to the house price gains if Britain had voted to Remain. The actual fall from current levels would be a less eye-watering eight per cent.

[h=5]Modest mixed picture?[/h]This seems to accord with the rump of economist estimates, which is for a mixed bag of modest price falls that will see the prime London market hit harder, as it relies far more heavily on foreign investors.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes the capital could see prices fall ten per cent in the next year, while KPMG predicts a drop of five per cent across the country but more in London.

These predictions rely on the fact that general underlying demand for housing is far outstripping demand - and the assumption that a fall in buyers post-Brexit will be matched by a fall in sellers. Savills has said it expects a "low transaction market".

 

[h=3]House prices in 'surprise' pre-referendum rise[/h]07 July

House prices recorded a "surprise" rise in June, says Property Wire, despite the UK voting to leave the European Union.

According to the latest Halifax house price index, the average property rose 1.3 per cent to a new record of close to £216,823 between May and June, an "unexpected" increase that was twice the rate of monthly growth between April and May.

SEE RELATED

UK interest rates expected to hit record low next week

Buy-to-let in spectacular rise and fall either side of stamp duty hike

A rival index published last week by Nationwide, which typically shows less dramatic movements but a similar trend, estimated monthly price growth held steady in June at the same rate as the previous month.

Despite this, there have been signs that the market slowed in terms of transactions in the lead-up to the referendum. The National Association of Estate Agents reported the smallest number of house hunters per branch for three years in May.

Overall, the Halifax data did show a general trend of slowing annual house price growth. Average valuations were up 8.4 per cent in the three months to June, the slowest rate of growth in a year.

However, this says little about the effects of the referendum. A rush of transactions ahead of a stamp duty hike for investment buyers at the beginning of April is skewing numbers, while price growth has been decelerating because affordability is squeezed.

Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis said its data "precedes the EU referendum result… therefore it is far too early to determine any impact since".

Experts are split on the impact. Most mainstream economists expect a low-transaction market with reduced or negative price growth, although few foresee a full-on crash.

In contrast, many market insiders believe the underlying shortage of housing – and the potential for interest rates to fall, cutting mortgage costs – will prevent price falls.

Economist Howard Archer, of IHS investment services, said: "Housing market activity and prices now look to be at very serious risk of an extended, marked downturn."

Archer predicts prices could fall five per cent during the second half of 2016 and again throughout 2017, notes the Financial Times.

However, Ben Madden, the managing director of London estate agents Thorgills, said: "The mere fact that we had a result was as if a weight had been lifted and people started to make firm buying decisions again.

"Despite widespread predictions that sales activity would drop off and sellers would have to accept price reductions, that simply hasn't materialised."

[h=3]House prices: Bank of England urges prudence, not panic[/h]07 July

The UK's vote for Brexit has created uncertainty in the housing market, says the Bank of England (BoE), but there is no need to panic and prospective buyers should merely use "common sense" about their purchases.

"We are advising people to be prudent," governor Mark Carney said. "If you are taking out a mortgage, at some stage during the life of that mortgage, conditions will be difficult.

SEE RELATED

UK interest rates expected to hit record low next week

Buy-to-let in spectacular rise and fall either side of stamp duty hike

"You want to be able to ensure that you can service that mortgage even if times are tough, so think about where interest rates will go, where wages will go in the lifetime of that mortgage."

Carney was obviously in part reflecting a changed post-referendum climate. Economic tremors are expected to reduce transaction volumes in the short term and could slow, or even reverse, house price growth.

In its latest stability report, published yesterday, the BoE in particular highlighted buy-to-let landlords, who buy property as an investment and are more influenced by shifts in sentiment.

According to Mortgage Strategy, it says landlords have the potential to "behave procyclically, amplifying movements in the housing market". The BoE will keep monitoring behaviour in this group.

For most buyers, there is just that warning - which Adam Challis, that head of residential research at the property group JLL, told the Daily Telegraph amounts to "just common sense".

He adds: "What Mr Carney is rightly trying to say to your average aspirant homeowner is that they should think more fully about protecting themselves from the potential of the downside risks, such as loss of a job, stagnant wages or a decline in the property market.

"He’s not suggesting [a crash] is going to - or even likely - to take place."

Carney pointed out that the caution was as much to do with a longer-term surge in house prices to record levels as any post-Brexit effects. Of his call for prudence, he added: "We would tell you that if we were in the tenth year of a boom. It would be the same message."

This all chimes with the advice of most property market experts, including Virginia Wallis in The Guardian and property expert Ray Boulger in the London Evening Standard, who have both told readers worried about the Brexit effect that as long as they have a reasonable deposit and are looking to live in the home long-term, they should go ahead with any agreed purchase.

[h=3]House prices post-Brexit: What the experts are saying[/h]04 July

There has been a barrage of negativity on the property market since the UK voted to leave the EU last month. But beneath the noise, what do the experts think will really happen to house prices – and do they think buyers should press on regardless?

[h=5]A sharp fall?[/h]SEE RELATED

UK interest rates expected to hit record low next week

Buy-to-let in spectacular rise and fall either side of stamp duty hike

Among the most negative predictions comes from online property portal Zoopla, which believes the average UK property value will fall £53,000 from its current level of £297,000, according to The Times.

That's a brutal drop of almost 18 per cent and would wipe "£1.5trn off the total UK housing stock". Thankfully, it's also an outlier.

Many will remember that before the vote, the Treasury also talked about a worst-case figure of 18 per cent, but that was compared to the house price gains if Britain had voted to Remain. The actual fall from current levels would be a less eye-watering eight per cent.

[h=5]Modest mixed picture?[/h]This seems to accord with the rump of economist estimates, which is for a mixed bag of modest price falls that will see the prime London market hit harder, as it relies far more heavily on foreign investors.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes the capital could see prices fall ten per cent in the next year, while KPMG predicts a drop of five per cent across the country but more in London.

These predictions rely on the fact that general underlying demand for housing is far outstripping demand - and the assumption that a fall in buyers post-Brexit will be matched by a fall in sellers. Savills has said it expects a "low transaction market".

[h=5]Reduced rises?[/h]There are even those that follow this logic to suggest prices won't fall at all, but will rise at a less rapid rate than the current five to ten per cent annually.

The Treasury's pre-referendum base case was for house prices to be ten per cent lower over two years, meaning they would stagnate at current levels. The National Association of Estate Agents believes property will still rise, but will be £1,000 lower by the end of this year than they would have been.

[h=5]Should you press on?[/h]The consensus is that there is a good chance that prices will soften but that the ground is unlikely to fall from beneath the market, so should you go ahead with your purchase?

Experts seem to suggest this depends on the nature of the deal. If you're an investment buyer looking to buy a second home to rent, for example, it might be worth holding fire. Similarly, if you have a small deposit of five per cent, it might also be worth letting the dust settle a little.

However if you have a decent amount saved up and are looking to buy a home to live in for a number of years, it's probably worth going ahead, says Virginia Wallis in The Guardian. She adds if you are "buying a long-term home to live in", short-term price movements should prove "fairly irrelevant".

Ray Boulger, a mortgage adviser and property market commentator, says much the same in the London Evening Standard. "I’d advise people who have been looking for a property for a long time and finally found one they want to just go for it," he says.

[h=3]House prices: How is the property market responding to Brexit?[/h]01 July

The dust is still settling after the nation’s decision to leave the EU last week and markets are still in turmoil. But away from stocks, currency and bonds, one market that will be particularly concerning for many Britons is housing.

[h=5]Were there any effects before the poll?[/h]Estate agents reported that there was a drop in transactions in the run up to the referendum. The average estate agency branch had 304 house hunters in May, six per cent lower than in April and the least since November 2013, according to data from the National Association of Estate Agents.

“The EU referendum without doubt meant that May was a month of uncertainty for potential house buyers – demand dropped significantly and is currently at the lowest level we have seen in the last three years,” says Mark Hayward, managing director of the NAEA.

[h=5]And what about since the result?[/h]It is too early to say if the decision to leave the EU has had an instant effect on house prices and many estate agents are reporting "mixed" consequences. Some buyers are said to be pulling out or delaying decisions, while others are pressing on - and in the case of some overseas buyers, capitalising on the fall in the pound to boost offers.

It would be fair to say, though, that the mood among housing market observers is more gloomy on price growth than it had been before the referendum.

“While the negotiations are months away in Brussels, they have already started in earnest between Britain’s homebuyers and sellers,” says James Pickford in the Financial Times.

“Some of the former are putting purchases on hold or pulling out entirely, spooked by the lack of clarity over what is to come. Agents and brokers are reporting buyers asking for a five to ten per cent discount, even after the seller has formally accepted an earlier offer.”

[h=5]Are house prices going to plummet?[/h]This is very difficult to predict as a number of different factors are at play. An initial stall in demand for property will have a knock-on effect, as many buyers may be worried about taking on a large mortgage when the country could be about to fall into a recession.

Some may also be concerned about job security if their company may lose trade or relocate as a result of the break with the EU.

“Housing market activity and prices now look to be at very serious risk of an extended, marked downturn following the UK’s vote to leave the EU. This is likely to weigh down markedly on economic activity and consumer confidence, which is not good news for the housing market,” says Howard Archer, chief economist at HIS Global Insight in The Telegraph.

Archer predicts that house prices will fall five per cent in the next six months.

However, there are positive signs in the housing market too. The mortgage market is looking particularly rosy - and it will only get more so if interest rates fall.

“As soon as Brexit was confirmed last week, the cost to banks of funding fixed deals started to fall,” says Paul Thomas in the Daily Mail. “This is measured by so-called swap rates. In the wake of last Thursday’s referendum, swap rates fell by as much as one-third. These falls should soon be passed on to borrowers in the form of lower interest rates.”

It’s also important to remember that people always need somewhere to live. “In the long-term, being in or out of Europe simply does not reverse the fundamental driver of the mainstream housing market, namely that there are too many people chasing too few homes,” says Dan Gandesha, founder and CEO of Property Partner, i=on Huffington Post.

[h=5]Are there any signs of increased demand?[/h]There have been early, counter-intuitive indicators that certain areas, such as the Central London property market, could actually see a boost due to Brexit.

“There are no signs of the British property market ‘falling off the face of the earth’ as some had feared it might if the UK voted to leave,” reports Hazel Sheffield in The Independent. “Estate agents have been swamped by calls from Chinese, Middle Eastern, Italian and Spanish buyers looking for a bargain after the pound tumbled to more than 30-year-lows, making the exchange rate very favourable for foreign buyers.”

Even if house prices do fall it may not have a negative effect on the number of transactions.

Firstly, it could help those struggling to reach that bottom rung of the housing ladder. “First-time buyers would benefit from lower competition for housing, as house price and rental inflation would slow down,” says Gaby Trinkaus, a vice president and senior analyst at Moody’s.

Secondly, “the prospect of falling prices cuts both ways: if all buyers demand a discount, sellers may be forced to take less; but if this happens across the market, they themselves could reasonably expect to prise a discount from the sellers of their next home,” says Pickford.

[h=3]House price growth jumped ahead of EU referendum[/h]29 June

House price growth accelerated in June, even despite the fear – and then reality – of a Brexit victory at the EU referendum last week.

Average UK property valuations rose 0.2 per cent month-on-month, the same rate of growth as May, says Nationwide's house price index.

SEE RELATED

UK interest rates expected to hit record low next week

Buy-to-let in spectacular rise and fall either side of stamp duty hike

However, they jumped 5.1 per cent year-on-year, up from 4.7 per cent last month, to £204,238.

Nationwide's chief economist, Robert Gardner, said it was too soon to draw conclusions on how the market is reacting to the referendum result, notes The Guardian.

He added it would be equally difficult to assess "how much of the likely fall-back in transactions" is due to the distorting effects of this year's stamp duty hike, which caused a rush of buy-to-let purchases to be brought forward to pre-April.

Elsewhere, figures from the National Association of Estate Agents showed a slowdown in buyer demand in the lead up to the EU referendum in May. The number of registered house hunters per estate agency branch hit a three-year low, reports FTAdviser.

What can we glean from this data? Not much conclusively, but it does reaffirm that house prices had continued to rise, despite a drop in demand prior to the poll. This in turn suggests the paucity of available property remains the defining characteristic of the market.

As this supply imbalance is unlikely to improve any time soon – in fact, there are suggestions house-building might now slow for a period – some argue prices might not crash in the way that had been predicted.

Gardner said: "Even if demand does soften a little, there’s going to be underlying demand. There are so few properties on the market."

Gardner also echoed talk of a "Brexit bubble", with a falling pound bringing discounts to international investors, which could mean that even in London, which is more reliant on overseas buyers and has seen the biggest rises in recent years, house prices might not fall as had been expected.

Fionnuala Earley, the chief economist at Countrywide estate agent, told the Belfast Telegraph that anecdotally, there had been a "mixed response so far to the vote, with some overseas buyers increasing their offers on properties… some first-time buyers completing purchases and some people saying they will 'wait and see'".

It was "too early to know what the full impact of the vote to leave the EU will be on the housing market and a clearer picture will emerge in the coming months", she added.

[h=3]House prices: Brexit discount for foreign buyers hits £40,000[/h]27 June

Overseas buyers are saving more than £40,000 on London property prices thanks to Brexit, according to estate agency Stirling Ackroyd.

SEE RELATED

UK interest rates expected to hit record low next week

Buy-to-let in spectacular rise and fall either side of stamp duty hike

In a statement released on Friday afternoon, after the pound slumped more than seven per cent against the euro following the UK's vote to leave the EU, the firm said the effective price cut for buyers from eurozone countries had reached eight per cent.

Seven months ago, the average London property was the equivalent of a record €630,100, its figures show. That now stands at €579,200, following a slow down at the top end of the market and the slump in the pound.

At current prices, the €50,300 equates to a slide in pound terms of £42,265. Taking into account the depreciation in the pound, euro buyers would now pay £40,900 less, Stirling Ackroyd says

Managing director Andrew Bridges said the fall to some extent masked a drop of around 2.4 per cent for prices in the top 25 per cent of the London market, but that it still equated to a major incentive for overseas buyers.

"Overnight, London has become a more affordable global property hotspot, particularly for those paying in Euros," he said. “After the shock of the referendum, calm will return to the market and people will see the bright lights of London are undimmed."

Predictions of a rush of foreign bargain-hunters is a counterweight to a string of forecasts that house price growth will significantly soften – or even head into reverse – after the referendum result, as Brexit uncertainty prompts an economic slowdown.

The Financial Times says estate agents such as Chestertons and property developers such as Galliard Homes had seen buyers pull out of sales on Friday after the Leave win was confirmed.

Gareth Norris, a Sussex-based mortgage broker with Lyons Finance, said two clients had cancelled their purchases since the referendum.

"One client said they weren’t going to go ahead because they were worried about negative equity. The other one said they were going to postpone because they wanted to be in a more stable position before committing," he said.

[Roberta2]

Sorry - Osborne has proposed a company tax reduction to 15%. The Governor of the Bank of England has also issued some very clear warnings.

 

I still don't see your response to the freezing of the seven commercial property funds holding 18 billion pounds in assets. Standard Life Investments halted withdrawals from one of its funds last Monday. Aviva Investors and M&G Investments followed on Tuesday. Henderson Global Investors, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Canada Life suspended trading on Wednesday. Aberdeen Fund Managers not only suspended redemptions, but also cut the value of its property funds by 17%. Legal and General Group also announced a 10% drop in value it is 2.3 billion pound property fund. Comment: that all happened in one week. So what will next week bring? If this is not a whiff of panic, what else might it be?

[Perthbum]

Sorry - Osborne has proposed a company tax reduction to 15%. The Governor of the Bank of England has also issued some very clear warnings.

 

I still don't see your response to the freezing of the seven commercial property funds holding 18 billion pounds in assets. Standard Life Investments halted withdrawals from one of its funds last Monday. Aviva Investors and M&G Investments followed on Tuesday. Henderson Global Investors, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Canada Life suspended trading on Wednesday. Aberdeen Fund Managers not only suspended redemptions, but also cut the value of its property funds by 17%. Legal and General Group also announced a 10% drop in value it is 2.3 billion pound property fund. Comment: that all happened in one week. So what will next week bring? If this is not a whiff of panic, what else might it be?

Because people are worried because of the bullshitte of the "stay" liars. Thew companies share prices are on the up again the footsie is higher now than in the last 6 months. The doomongwrs will of course not admit they might have got it wrong.

[Gbye grey sky]

I still maintain there will be ups and downs because of the overall uncertainty but ultimately much will rest on the UK negotiations with the EU.

 

As these will not play out until 2018/19 a long period of potential fiscal uncertainty beckons.

 

In the meantime the BofE is doing what it can to help devalue the pound to help the economy ride the storm.

 

On the question of negotiations we are very divided on this forum with some believing the UK holds most of the cards so the EU will have to relent and those like myself that believe the opposite is nearer the mark.

[Perthbum]

quote....

 

 

The UK pays more into the EU budget than it gets back.

In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.

[Parley]

It is interesting how everyone's arguments and attitudes here are based solely on money.

[newjez]

Well we voted to leave like millions of other Patriotic Brits.Including our Serving Armed Forces and veterans. Britain was Much Better off before we joined the EU,and will be very much better off now that we have left.The Worlds Most Corrupt,Protectionist, Full of rules and Regulated Organisation the World has ever known.Accountable to nobody,but themselves. Apart from their Lavish Salaries and Allowances MEP's have their own tax system. set at 8%.I have two members of my family in the UK in Their Own Business.One has a Bakery the oither a Btdhes shop.They Told me Belonging to the EU is A nightmare. The Bakery has to abide by 134 Rules and regulations,before they can sell a loaf of bread. The Butcher's Shop over 350. The Only People That Will loose are the very wealthy ,and those receiving EU Bonuses.All paid By the British Tax Payers Anyhow. Normal People are not going to pay a high Price at all,A Cosmetic Win You Say. I think Being Able to govern Your Own Country ,have control on your own Armed Forces,Police Force,Ect is More than A cosmetic Gain? It won't take Years at all,to be better off. The IMF Chief Says the EU is on the Brink of Collapse.France And Germany Say Trade Between Britain Won't change.There's only 6 solvent Countries in the EU,And they want out.The Whingeing Remain Traitors ,Students and EU Citizens that Live and Work in Britain,The Younger Generation ,That won't work anyhow ect. Never Bothered to Vote.Well I'm Going Back And have Made $50,000 Already with the pound Falling. Which is Good for the British Economy.They Have Been Reducing Interest Rates to nearly Zero to get the Pound Devalued. So Brexit = Jobs and Growth. According to the Experts.Most on here have never lived in a EU FREE Britain So how Can they Keep on Whingeing,About Something they know nothing about? There's no Price On Having and Running Your Own Country .Hundreds Of Thousands Of Brits Gave Up Their Lives For Britain. But the Younger Whingers and Scaremongers Don't give a ****.About that. They are A National Disgrace.

 

 

I do agree with a lot of that. I hate the EU as much as anyone. But I'm not prepared to jump out of a burning building unless I know the fire brigade are beneath me with a net, unless we were actually on fire which we weren't.

 

I wanted to leave the EU with a Norwegian type model. Then, after we have started setting up trade agreements with other countries, from a position of strength we could start chipping away at the definition of free movement, along with Norway and Switzerland, and start chipping away at the fees we pay and the laws that we accept. I wanted a slow partial withdrawal. I blame all the ******s involved, Cameron, gove and Boris and farage.

[Gbye grey sky]

It is interesting how everyone's arguments and attitudes here are based solely on money.

 

Hardly the case given that immigration is probably the key issue.

[newjez]

It is interesting how everyone's arguments and attitudes here are based solely on money.

 

 

Have you not read the thread title?

[Roberta2]

Re the FTSE; +All this, though, is for another day. For now, no one is in fact panicking in the markets because there’s nothing to hand to panic about, not least because some of the ominous risks that loom large can’t really be discounted. This, however, does not mean that the City and industry are not starting to take on board the implications of Brexit for the economy. They are not so much panicking as preparing. The FTSE indices will respond in good time.+ George Magnus last week.

 

Others on this thread have made repeated and similar comments about the FTSE.. Let's see where the FTSE is in six months time. I would not want to have any money in it.

 

The real Canary in the Coalmine, of course, is the freezing of all those commercial (underline one) property trusts. That's is a direct and rapid response to deepening fears in the City about loss of the EU passport and consequent reduction of demand for office space. i.e. the evidence about residential property is so far at best mixed. For commercial property in London, the evidence points only in one direction. As I said before, the son of a friend - who works for JP Morgan in London- is already very worried about his job, as are all of his colleagues.

 

Of course, it's a bit hard to argue with the Flat Earthers. However much evidence is adduced that the world is in fact round, they will disregard all of it - and insist that it's flat.

[newjez]

Re the FTSE; +All this, though, is for another day. For now, no one is in fact panicking in the markets because there’s nothing to hand to panic about, not least because some of the ominous risks that loom large can’t really be discounted. This, however, does not mean that the City and industry are not starting to take on board the implications of Brexit for the economy. They are not so much panicking as preparing. The FTSE indices will respond in good time.+ George Magnus last week.

 

Others on this thread have made repeated and similar comments about the FTSE.. Let's see where the FTSE is in six months time. I would not want to have any money in it.

 

The real Canary in the Coalmine, of course, is the freezing of all those commercial (underline one) property trusts. That's is a direct and rapid response to deepening fears in the City about loss of the EU passport and consequent reduction of demand for office space. i.e. the evidence about residential property is so far at best mixed. For commercial property in London, the evidence points only in one direction. As I said before, the son of a friend - who works for JP Morgan in London- is already very worried about his job, as are all of his colleagues.

 

Of course, it's a bit hard to argue with the Flat Earthers. However much evidence is adduced that the world is in fact round, they will disregard all of it - and insist that it's flat.

 

 

It's not all doom and gloom. Hopefully they will bring forward the new runways. Although I've always thought they should use manston airport in Kent and upgrade the transport routes.

[VERYSTORMY]

Re the FTSE; +All this, though, is for another day. For now, no one is in fact panicking in the markets because there’s nothing to hand to panic about, not least because some of the ominous risks that loom large can’t really be discounted. This, however, does not mean that the City and industry are not starting to take on board the implications of Brexit for the economy. They are not so much panicking as preparing. The FTSE indices will respond in good time.+ George Magnus last week.

 

Others on this thread have made repeated and similar comments about the FTSE.. Let's see where the FTSE is in six months time. I would not want to have any money in it.

 

The real Canary in the Coalmine, of course, is the freezing of all those commercial (underline one) property trusts. That's is a direct and rapid response to deepening fears in the City about loss of the EU passport and consequent reduction of demand for office space. i.e. the evidence about residential property is so far at best mixed. For commercial property in London, the evidence points only in one direction. As I said before, the son of a friend - who works for JP Morgan in London- is already very worried about his job, as are all of his colleagues.

 

Of course, it's a bit hard to argue with the Flat Earthers. However much evidence is adduced that the world is in fact round, they will disregard all of it - and insist that it's flat.

 

You need to understand what these trusts are and what has happened with them.

 

There was an excellent piece on radio 4 at the weekend which you can probably get as a pod cast.

 

Basically, these are smallish units which people invest in, which they then invest in commercial property.

 

Some things to note. First, apparently, all the major investors pulled out of these a long time ago as commercial property in London peaked and it became a poor choice by mid last year. In fact, commercial property has being falling in London since about this time last year.

 

The funds in question therefore are mainly holding individuals cash. But, the cash is none liquid. So, even those with between 10 and 100 million investment portfolio only have a few hundred grand in cash. As a result, it only needs a tiny amount of investors to ask for their money returned and the fund cant do it - it has to in effect sell the asset and selling something such as a warehouse or a shopping centre doesn't happen over night. So, if they get requests for even a small amount of money, they have to gate the fund.

[starlight7]

I have a son in law who works for one of the ratings agency. Things are crook in Tallarook as they say. The UK affects us here in Australia too. Brats.

[Roberta2]

Indeed. Discovered with horror that the "other grandparents" in the UK voted Leave. Believed all the lies. Didn't concern them that our two shared grandchildren will no longer be citizens of the world's largest trading etc bloc, of 500 million mostly well off people. This didn't go down at all well with their own daughter and my son. Things are pretty tense. I did read where some grandparents in the UK were tempted to vote Leave, but thought of their grandchildren and voted Remain. This must be happening in a lot of families. For Australia, there may be some short term gains. Australian tourists in the UK will certainly get quite a lot more for their dollar, for example. But if Brexit triggers a global recession, which is very likely, we will not be immune - and we don't have the buffer we had before the GFC.

[BacktoDemocracy]

Indeed. Discovered with horror that the "other grandparents" in the UK voted Leave. Believed all the lies. Didn't concern them that our two shared grandchildren will no longer be citizens of the world's largest trading etc bloc, of 500 million mostly well off people. This didn't go down at all well with their own daughter and my son. Things are pretty tense. I did read where some grandparents in the UK were tempted to vote Leave, but thought of their grandchildren and voted Remain. This must be happening in a lot of families. For Australia, there may be some short term gains. Australian tourists in the UK will certainly get quite a lot more for their dollar, for example. But if Brexit triggers a global recession, which is very likely, we will not be immune - and we don't have the buffer we had before the GFC.

Unfortunately my mother in law voted out and for UKIP and has created similar tensions in our household, don't really know what to do as all reasoning seems to fall on completely deaf ears, suppose we can only wait for the consequences to bite.