eu referendum update

[Gbye grey sky]

question re the Scots. They (or most of them) seem to think that if they have another referendum and succeed in exiting the UK, the EU will welcome them with open arms. But preconditions for entering the EU as a sovereign state would be quite strict. The Europeans are likely to think the Scots will be net beneficiaries, no? Their main asset - North Sea oil - is declining both in production and in price (because of US shale oil, fracking etc) Now in effect mendicants in the UK. And are the Scots seriously proposing that there be an international border on what is now mainland Britain? I also assume that if the Scots were successful in getting into the EU, they would have to be in the Eurozone as well. i.e. they would have to cede sovereignty over their currency and interest rates in effect to the Bundesbank? (Question asked out of sheer curiosity and a conversation with my UK based son. No skin in the game)

 

It is for all these reasons that the SNP has not said that there will be a 2nd referendum. It must have been tempting in the wake of the result but respect that there was no knee-jerk response. They have to find out whether they can enter and under what terms.

 

If Scotland is in and England is out then they are in a strong position to increase jobs and prosperity in Scotland making them less reliant on oil. Banks and financial institutions for sure would have to consider moving at least part of their operations out of London and Edinburgh would be a good fit.

[flag of convenience]

It is for all these reasons that the SNP has not said that there will be a 2nd referendum. It must have been tempting in the wake of the result but respect that there was no knee-jerk response. They have to find out whether they can enter and under what terms.

 

If Scotland is in and England is out then they are in a strong position to increase jobs and prosperity in Scotland making them less reliant on oil. Banks and financial institutions for sure would have to consider moving at least part of their operations out of London and Edinburgh would be a good fit.

 

Go for it Scotland I'd say. That nation will be in a prime position to encourage the migration north of England's bright young things, attract the financial industry and companies wanting a European base to start up in that is English speaking.

I can't see how they would lose. Apart from making the country more expensive of course.

[Quokka2005]

Even j k Rowling is saying this has massively changed things

[Roberta2]

I see that Cornwall voted solidly for Brexit, but now wants reassurances that its EU subsidies will not be cut!!! Looks like the Culture of Entitlement is going to have some reality checks, in various places.

[Roberta2]

The fact that Britain needs the EU far more than the EU needs Britain is going to be made very clear very fast. Britain is a relatively small country which has delusions about itself. Merkel is trying to restrain the French and others out to teach the Brits a lesson in reality, but her ability to do so is limited. For starters, British banks will no longer enjoy the "passport rule", by which they were treated as if they were part of the Euro zone. Something that you would have expected Boris to know. American and other global banks are already planning to move operations out of London to Frankfurt etc. Hard to see how a global recession will be avoided.

[Roberta2]

Why would international banks moving out of London - as many now will - go to Edinburgh rather than say Frankfurt?

[flag of convenience]

I see that Cornwall voted solidly for Brexit, but now wants reassurances that its EU subsidies will not be cut!!! Looks like the Culture of Entitlement is going to have some reality checks, in various places.

 

Happy to se Brighton knew their place as belonging to Europe.

[flag of convenience]

Why would international banks moving out of London - as many now will - go to Edinburgh rather than say Frankfurt?

 

One of the few good things that could come out of the whole sorry saga. Perhaps Londoners may just be able to afford a gaff once again. Unlikely though the lower pound will see Chinese and Middle Easters more likely snapping up any deals.

[Suzukiscottie]

Why would international banks moving out of London - as many now will - go to Edinburgh rather than say Frankfurt?

 

Edinburgh already is a large financial centre.

 

Scots were often told that the banks/finance/pensions/insurance companies would all "up-sticks" and move to London during the Scottish independence referendum. Strange that!

 

 

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[Roberta2]

They undoubtedly would have, had the referendum succeeded. If you think that was an idle threat, you'd be mistaken.

[Suzukiscottie]

They undoubtedly would have, had the referendum succeeded. If you think that was an idle threat, you'd be mistaken.

 

It was "politician-speak" at the time. Nothing from the financial institutions agreeing with the scare tactics. Many rebuked the scaremongering. Strange that!

 

 

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[Quokka2005]

It was "politician-speak" at the time. Nothing from the financial institutions agreeing with the scare tactics. Many rebuked the scaremongering. Strange that!

 

 

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Don't forget the pensioners that were told that they would be left with no pension. My personal favourite memory was people from the EU being threatened by some that they would be kicked out. I know that happened to some polish people. Now I'm reading posts of people being threatened on streets etc for being polish,romanian etc and being told "we've voted so leave now". That's the mentality of some people. I'll see if I can put up the link

[paul1977]

Why would international banks moving out of London - as many now will - go to Edinburgh rather than say Frankfurt?

London is the finance capital of the world and that will never change.

[Quinkla]

London is the finance capital of the world and that will never change.

Watch and learn.

[ali]

I think some people will always find a moron to prove their point. Many more decent folk than not.

[Roberta2]

Banks based in London rely on an “EU passport” to operate freely across Europe’s financial markets while having most of their staff and operations in the UK capital. But François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the governing council of theEuropean Central Bank, warned that the City could no longer expect to enjoy a similar arrangement in the future.

“If tomorrow Britain is not part of the single market, the City cannot keep this European passport,” Villeroy, who is also governor of the French central bank, told France Inter radio.

[Gbye grey sky]

The fact that Britain needs the EU far more than the EU needs Britain is going to be made very clear very fast. Britain is a relatively small country which has delusions about itself. Merkel is trying to restrain the French and others out to teach the Brits a lesson in reality, but her ability to do so is limited. For starters, British banks will no longer enjoy the "passport rule", by which they were treated as if they were part of the Euro zone. Something that you would have expected Boris to know. American and other global banks are already planning to move operations out of London to Frankfurt etc. Hard to see how a global recession will be avoided.

 

Boris did know. When Mayor of London he was openly pro-Europe because he knew the damage to the City of London if Britain left. He was playing a dangerous game imo hoping a high Brexit vote would improve the Tories negotiating power in Brussels.

[Bound4Tassie]

I think some people will always find a moron to prove their point. Many more decent folk than not.

 

That's a lovely way to think of the world! ( Ps how's that rainbow pooping unicorn? Lol! )

[Roberta2]

Interesting comment. Would be interested to know the evidence. I suppose he has always thought he was much cleverer than anyone else. I had thought that his main calculus was to propel himself into the British prime ministership. That he thought Cameron's job was rightfully his.

[Gbye grey sky]

London is the finance capital of the world and that will never change.

 

The banks will of course always maintain a presence there but they will look elsewhere for their Headquarters. Brexiters were warned and dismissed everything as scaremongering. Over the coming weeks and months realisation will gradually dawn and then they will be as worried and angry as the Remainers are now.

[Gbye grey sky]

Interesting comment. Would be interested to know the evidence. I suppose he has always thought he was much cleverer than anyone else. I had thought that his main calculus was to propel himself into the British prime ministership. That he thought Cameron's job was rightfully his.

 

I listened very carefully to Boris when he first threw his hat into the Leave campaign. He indicated then that a Leave vote would drag the EU back to the negotiating table as Cameron got so little from his negotiating.

 

He was also increasingly quiet later on especially once immigration became the single issue that Leave focussed on in the last couple of weeks campaigning. I suspect he started to see that this was a runaway train. I don't think he realised the groundswell of hatred and bigotry that the campaign would generate.

[srh82]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/25/brexit-raise-cost-of-clothing-and-food-warns-next-boss

[newjez]

Interesting comment. Would be interested to know the evidence. I suppose he has always thought he was much cleverer than anyone else. I had thought that his main calculus was to propel himself into the British prime ministership. That he thought Cameron's job was rightfully his.

 

 

I really don't think he intended to win, and he has been very quiet since. You would expect him to march forth and take the reins , but there is a distinct look of, 'oh ****, what do I do now ' on his face. Incidentally, his father is very pro Europe , and Boris was very pro Europe . I'm assuming the plan was to fire a shot accross the bows with a close remain vote so they could try and renegotiate from a position of strength. (I believe gove wanted to leave, as did most others, but Boris had his own agenda, too clever by half). From this renegotiation, Boris was to take over the Tory leadership.

 

In a classic, 'you were only meant to blow the bloody doors off moment ', he has captured the spirit of the nation, and we only left didn't we! Now he has to break it too the nation that leave doesn't mean leave. Not in the sense that people voted for. That won't go down well. There may be riots in some parts of the country. I can see a vote of no confidence and an election within a year. Good opportunity for a lib dem told you so come back.

 

So, we have the choice between year zero pol pot scenario and free movement, still paying money to eu, member in everything but name.

 

What a farce. And to think we let these people run the country.

 

Both leave and remain voters have a right to feel very bitter about this.

[Roberta2]

You could well be right. If so, one of history's great miscalculations. He's got a poisoned chalice now. Apart from anything else, Westminster will be clogged with some 80,000 pages of legislation that has to be rescinded. If it's not all done within two years, the UK will be out anyway. Can't see either Boris or Corben lasting too long. Boris must be really really popular in the City now.

[Bound4Tassie]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-disenfranchised-expats-denied-eu-referendum-missing-postal-votes-demand-re-run-hundreds-a7103066.html

 

Seems more than just a few were denied their chance to have a say.