Outlook for economy not good

[HelensvaleHoward]

In fairness Howard, a similar complaint (if you like) could be levelled at posters who frequent the MBTTUK forum, but who have no interest in ever returning there, but who use that sub-forum as an opportunity to demean those planning to return home. I'm not accusing you of this, but there are some posters on there who leave me scratching my head as to why they bother.

I hardly ever post in that section tbh

 

The UK was my home for longer than I've lived here in Australia

 

I aint forgotten about my great times in the UK

 

For most who've lived in Australia but are now living a great life in the UK it must be the same

 

I just think for some they have short memories

 

I'd never say anything bad about the UK why should I

 

But so many seem determined to continue posting downers about Australia

 

I think I feel more sorry for them as aint it best to just enjoy life where you're living

 

I know I am doing this

 

But I will always give my views on Australia as this is where I live

 

Especially when it's posted by someone not living here

 

I'd expect them to do the same with me if I ever posted about the UK

 

Which I aint gonna do lol

[Gbye grey sky]

In fairness Howard, a similar complaint (if you like) could be levelled at posters who frequent the MBTTUK forum, but who have no interest in ever returning there, but who use that sub-forum as an opportunity to demean those planning to return home. I'm not accusing you of this, but there are some posters on there who leave me scratching my head as to why they bother.

 

The MBTTUK thread is a place many who are considering migrating frequent to get an insight into potential drawbacks. I have found many of these interesting and because I have not yet lived in Australia I confine my own contributions to practical advice on the UK for potential returnees. However, if this area was left solely to those planning to return, it might end up looking very negative indeed and could easily give the impression that nobody settles and finds happiness in Oz.

 

I don't agree that people returning to the UK should be demeaned but in general it can be some of the reasons they give that are challenged rather than the desire itself.

[bristolman]

Thanks for being honest

 

No worries at all, at least you haven't tried to analyse my very simple reason for being here.

[BacktoDemocracy]

All i can say is that the polnts i make about aus on here i try to make as balanced as possible and try to highlight that it is my view, but when i comment on the politics i am critical of how authoritarian the present govt is and how poorly they are managing the economy partly because i think people need to appreciate how those factors could impact on them and i still have an interest in Aus as my pension fund is locked into their economy.

I also recognise that many of the same things are happening in the uk as in Aus but the govt here is held better to account and organisations publicise the govts intentions and speak out against them, my experience in Aus was that everyone applauded the govt becoming ever more authoritarian and discriminatory and the voices of dissent were drowned out in that chorus of approval and to be honest that seems to be the same tactic that seems to be evident here also.

Also the state of the economy is inevitably bound up with who is running it and at the moment that is the Liberals and there are glaring deficiencies in their handling of it which are going to negatively impact on it and people making the decision to emigrate need to be aware that it's not the land of milk and honey with a giant swill bucket that everyone can get their snout into, it is chancy business at the moment emigrating with no guarantees that it will end up sunny side up and the economy and the management of it is questionable and i think it is fair to highlight the characters who are making decisions about the economy and how that might impact newcomers in the short and long term.

Edited June 1, 2015 by BacktoDemocracy

[Parley]

Why shouldn't those who approve voice their approval ?

You have your say and I'll have mine.

[Guest]

The MBTTUK thread is a place many who are considering migrating frequent to get an insight into potential drawbacks. I have found many of these interesting and because I have not yet lived in Australia I confine my own contributions to practical advice on the UK for potential returnees. However, if this area was left solely to those planning to return, it might end up looking very negative indeed and could easily give the impression that nobody settles and finds happiness in Oz.

 

I don't agree that people returning to the UK should be demeaned but in general it can be some of the reasons they give that are challenged rather than the desire itself.

 

Oh, I think those of us who'd like to return home are very much a minority both on PIO and out in the 'real' world (so to speak), and as such I don't think we threaten to burst too many bubbles for prospective immigrants to Australia. There are one or two serial complainers of course, but once you learn about their experiences you generally get a good sense of why they post what they do. Most people on there though are just excited/nervous/anxious etc at the thought of going home, but there are (some) others who feel the need to disparage their choice. I don't know what their motivation is.

[flag of convenience]

I think it's only fair and reasonable that people are forwarned or the potential issues. It's not all sunshine and oranges. If people can address potential problems before they come, they may be in a better position to stay, or save themselves a lot of money. I have heard many on here on threads where teenagers resist coming put forward the view that one young person can't dictate to a family, drag them here and they will like it etc. Having been down that route, I think its my responsibility to highlight the pitfalls of such actions, and how dare someone try and silence me.

 

There are sirons on this website.

 

How dare indeed. Especially on matters where such opposing views are of the upmost importance in giving the whole picture.

[Paul1Perth]

 

I'm not assuming anything, unlike some - I am talking from experience. You seem to have a very rosey view of small businesses and the people that run them. It doesn't make someone stupid if the skills that allow them to make a living running a small business are not necessarily financial skills.

 

 

Well obviously in my job I come across a very wide range of small businesses - with only one exception I can think of in my experience, they are run by lovely people, but no, not all of them are financial whizzes. Many of them are just trying to support their families in the best way they can, and some of them - like the one @VERYSTORMY mentioned earlier - have got the completely wrong idea about this budget measure. The ones that know they don't know may well ask for advice from their bookkeepers or accountants, but those that don't realise it's not as obvious as it sounds may well make expensive purchases on credit or take out loans to make purchases, thinking the government will be giving them the money back at the end of the year, regardless.

 

I don't have a rosy view of small business. I have had a couple of family members and have a few friends who have run their own business and I know how hard work and sometimes long hours it can be. That's one of the reasons I've never really fancied it myself. I'm sure the rewards can be great but the risks and hard work you have to put in have to be balanced.

[Parley]

Nice to see Labor strongly support the small business budget measures.

 

They look like passing tomorrow after a day today of speeches and debate.

[newjez]

Nice to see Labor strongly support the small business budget measures.

 

They look like passing tomorrow after a day today of speeches and debate.

 

Would they dare to block supply? That's pretty extreme.

[Parley]

That wouldn't be blocking supply.

At last years budget they opposed virtually everything.

[Paul1Perth]

Keep the pommie passport, I hope I'm wrong, but how can a government do what this government have done and not plunge a country into recession?

Prop up industries in structural decline, Close factories that have the potential to keep people in work, Actively demonize industries that are popular all over the rest of the world, Cut funding from the very institutions that could make Australia prosper.

As a country we could be running the show, instead we are at the back eating raw onions and being laughed at.

It's not all bad though, our 1% are just dandy, even in the last few days their rorting of the super system has been protected.

It makes ya proud

 

 

Can't agree. The Aussie economy is still the envy of just about all developed nations. Our interest rates still have somewhere to go, unlike most nations. If we manage to stay out of recession and we are a way from it yet, it will be because the commodity prices increase. Nothing to do with what the government does or doesn't do. A lot like got us through the GFC.

[bristolman]

Can't agree. The Aussie economy is still the envy of just about all developed nations. Our interest rates still have somewhere to go, unlike most nations. If we manage to stay out of recession and we are a way from it yet, it will be because the commodity prices increase. Nothing to do with what the government does or doesn't do. A lot like got us through the GFC.

 

You don't seriously believe that do you ? Perhaps during get the GFC that may have been true but now ?

[flag of convenience]

Can't agree. The Aussie economy is still the envy of just about all developed nations. Our interest rates still have somewhere to go, unlike most nations. If we manage to stay out of recession and we are a way from it yet, it will be because the commodity prices increase. Nothing to do with what the government does or doesn't do. A lot like got us through the GFC.

 

A lot to do with how the government manages the economy actually. Just like how housing was stimulated after the introduction of GST in 2000 by the First Home Buyers Grant and other stimulus measures during the GFC.

Commodity prices will unlikely see price hikes for years and then nothing in comparison to the boom recently experienced. We need more than digging out of the earth, I'm afraid.

[flag of convenience]

That wouldn't be blocking supply.

At last years budget they opposed virtually everything.

 

Now why on earth would that have been, I wonder?

[Parley]

You don't seriously believe that do you ? Perhaps during get the GFC that may have been true but now ?

 

Latest GDP figure today was better than expected so the economy is still quite resilient albeit there are pressures in various areas.

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/gdp-rose-09pc-in-march-quarter-abs/story-e6frg926-1227381094097

 

Housing still going gangbusters.

I think its a good thing if there is Chinese money coming in to the country.

It will be good for the confidence of consumers.

[bristolman]

Latest GDP figure today was better than expected so the economy is still quite resilient albeit there are pressures in various areas.

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/gdp-rose-09pc-in-march-quarter-abs/story-e6frg926-1227381094097

 

Housing still going gangbusters.

I think its a good thing if there is Chinese money coming in to the country.

It will be good for the confidence of consumers.

 

That is very good news and long may it continue. My comment was regarding the idea that the Australian economy was in some way the envy of just about all developed nations, no one other than certain sections of the media believe that do they ?

[starlight7]

The prices of houses are going up and up round Melbourne so someone, somewhere, has money. Maybe it's the Chinese, who knows? Certainly no sign of a recession as yet- shops are busy and money is pouring into them. Think it is a different story in WA, however- but that was bound to happen.

[KIRK AND CO]

:biglaugh:

Can't agree. The Aussie economy is still the envy of just about all developed nations. Our interest rates still have somewhere to go, unlike most nations. If we manage to stay out of recession and we are a way from it yet, it will be because the commodity prices increase. Nothing to do with what the government does or doesn't do. A lot like got us through the GFC.

:biglaugh:

[flybyknight]

Can't agree. The Aussie economy is still the envy of just about all developed nations. Our interest rates still have somewhere to go, unlike most nations. If we manage to stay out of recession and we are a way from it yet, it will be because the commodity prices increase. Nothing to do with what the government does or doesn't do. A lot like got us through the GFC.

 

I hope you are right, but fear you are misinformed.

the commodities you speak of are in decline, the government grossly overestimated chinese and indian demand.

the manufacturing sector could help, but they are in decline too, houses are overpriced, interest rates are dropping, lots of recession indicators.

the country seems to be folding in on itself, relying on it's own citizens spending and debt to weather the storm, is now the time to rack up personal debt?

lets see how we go eh?

 

I really hope I am wrong, I truly do!

We hope to build soon!

[Paul1Perth]

You don't seriously believe that do you ? Perhaps during get the GFC that may have been true but now ?

 

Figures released yesterday and the GDP data surprised economists by coming in at 0.9% growth. They were expecting a lot lower. Makes you laugh that there is never any outcome for economists when they get their predictions wrong. They can seriously affect a country's performance by their predictions, the dollar took a tumble for the past few days because everyone was believing what they wee saying and expecting something like 0.6% growth.

 

Joe Hockey said almost the same words as me when he spoke about the economy. Our interest rates, whilst low, could still go down further, the US and most other developed nations had to bring in virtually zero interest rates when Aus still had about 5%. It's only recently that they've fallen here and the economy has still been able to kick on. The US is still struggling.

 

All you doom and gloomers might have to wait for another quarter.

[Paul1Perth]

I hope you are right, but fear you are misinformed.

the commodities you speak of are in decline, the government grossly overestimated chinese and indian demand.

the manufacturing sector could help, but they are in decline too, houses are overpriced, interest rates are dropping, lots of recession indicators.

the country seems to be folding in on itself, relying on it's own citizens spending and debt to weather the storm, is now the time to rack up personal debt?

lets see how we go eh?

 

I really hope I am wrong, I truly do!

We hope to build soon!

 

Economists and other "experts" were forecasting Iron Ore to be less than $35 a tonne a month ago. It's back up above $60 and has hit 3 month highs today. Chinese demand has remained higher than most people expected.

 

The manufacturing sector can't really help here, the UK, the US. We are competing with China, India, Bangladesh etc. and who can compete with the manufacturing labour rates they pay there? No one. Even if we had a manufacturing sector the wages would have to be so low that the employers would have to breach the minimum wage. We all know what happens then, dodgy employers setting people on with no visas, expired visas, illegal immigrants. Heard on the radio this morning that a task force has been set up to investigate the practices shown on 4 corners a couple of weeks back.

 

While everyone says we have nothing after mining are they forgetting the animal exports, wheat, grain, fish, wool (price reached a 3 year high today) a lot of farmers are doing better than for years.

 

Then there's oil and gas which has also taken a dip but is rising daily at the moment. The North West shelf project and the new LNG projects are still in construction phases and will go into production in the next few years.

 

Aus still doesn't have a massive population, you can see by the size of Perth, the one big City in WA and how much employment those mines, oil and gas fields are still generating. Sure we don't see them from Perth but they are big operations employing a lot of people, even after the downturn.

 

A lot of countries would give a lot to be in our shoes. Lets hope the Greek mess sorts itself out eh.

[Petkula73]

I find recessions to be red herrings. If you read the doom and gloom about the 2008 credit crunch in the UK (I really don't want to use the term "GFC" - find it a completely pointless Australian acronym), you'd be forgiven for thinking every man and his dog was out of work and the country was on its knees.

 

But what happened in reality? Well from a personal point of view, we became considerably better off than in the boom years. Our mortgage went from 6.99% to 0.99% in the space of around six months, and it's remained there ever since. So a net saving of around $90K in interest payments alone. I didn't lose my job, neither did my wife or anyone in my family. Nor did any of my friends despite many of them working in the finance sector. Retail prices were also held in check, so we had more spending power than before (some huge discounts were available). The public services we actually used were more or less unaffected (or at least there was no noticeable effect). The bits of the NHS we used were unchanged, the bins got collected and the parks and swimming pools remained open.

 

Some people were affected, that's true. A lot of public sector jobs went, as did a lot of public spending, but a huge amount of this was waste. I remember having an argument with a friend who worked for the local council (she kept her job) about the closing of a youth club. Her point was how bad it was for the community, my point was if it was that important then keep it running without the handouts - i.e. take some ownership and organise it without the council's money. If there's no drive or appetite to run it privately, why do you assume the tax payer should fund it?

 

So all in all, despite the BBC telling us night after night that the end of the world was nigh, very little actually happened of any real consequence to a lot of people in the UK. Sure, it hit some people extremely badly, but as a percentage it's a lot less than people who were unaffected.

 

Australia will survive... Actually, with poxy 2 bed flat in the part of Melbourne we live in costing north of $1M, it'll be very welcome.

[Paul1Perth]

:biglaugh::biglaugh:

 

Laugh away mate, you live in Newbury, you wouldn't have a clue about how the Aus economy is performing and should care even less as it's not going to affect you.

[Paul1Perth]

The prices of houses are going up and up round Melbourne so someone, somewhere, has money. Maybe it's the Chinese, who knows? Certainly no sign of a recession as yet- shops are busy and money is pouring into them. Think it is a different story in WA, however- but that was bound to happen.

 

Why would you think that about WA? Still has the lowest unemployment figures of any state, the people that have jobs are generally well paid, especially if they are still FIFO.

 

The other upside for WA is we've not seen the housing bubble that no-one can seem to explain that Sydney and Melbourne have. Where is the money coming from to drive it?

 

Shops, pubs, clubs? Not noticed any sign of changes in WA. My missus works part tie so goes shopping in the week as she says it's way too hectic at weekends.:cool: