Tough to say how much more competitive it will be in two years, points may go up to 75 like it was for a portion of last year. There’s also the 5 year regional rule they are flirting with. Might have a better idea after the federal election next year.
You are taking a risk by not accepting an invitation which you have in hand. But at the same time, if you don’t believe you can hold true to the moral obligation then it’s best not to apply right away. Unfortunately too many have made this obligation to the states, and are not following it. This, in turn, is ruining it for those of us who are willing to stay 2 years. (which is minimal in the grand scheme of things if it means we can get perminant residency)
In the past, once the visa was lodged, then whatever changes come about won’t affect you. For changes that would effect getting an invitation, then if you have an invite you also won’t be affected by those. One thing I am not sure on is the case of the government changing the regional areas, that’s probably grant related compared to invite/lodge.
What is the occupation?