Snap General Election Called

[BacktoDemocracy]

17 hours ago, amibovered said:

Hard Brexit coming up

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/jean-claude-juncker-to-theresa-may-on-brexit-im-10-times-more-sceptical-than-i-was-before

Well we had all ( in the UK ) better hope that this is not going to happen because it will be FUBAR.

 

 

 

 

[simmo]

2 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

Well we had all ( in the UK ) better hope that this is not going to happen because it will be FUBAR.

 

 

 

 

Pmsl?????

[winter1]

On 30/04/2017 at 6:41 PM, BacktoDemocracy said:

I think that maybe why she has gone for an early vote, we see an apparently composed and capable woman able to stare down critics and come up with put downs, I wonder if there is more uncertainty behind it all, especially when it comes to dealing with the public school, old boy network . We'll probably have no idea beyond seeing if there is a raft of new faces after the election then it could be interpreted as her consolidating her grip on the party. If that is the case then she has been telling porkies for quite a while, it is going to be  vastly entertaining if anything happens to the three brexiteers .

She would have to wobble very badly to lose this election, if she does lose it could be a disaster or it could be a move towards a new beginning, but the papers are not going to let that happen, Corbyn doesn't have the hunger for the job. 

 

Not sure what would happen with a hung parliament. However could we consider a situation where there is a huge Tory majority that will include a greater number of Euro Sceptics which may worsen her bargaining hand as well as threaten her leadership. As I believe the date for final candidates to be accepted for the poll is still a week or so away so nobody can definitely yet look at the bias of many new Tory MPs some replacing retiring members but also those taking opposition seats. This is I suspect now more likely as the Brexiteers have been emboldened. Can you imagine a house full of Redwood and Leigh and Gove supporters.  I note that the current Tory MP from my old constituency in the UK is a young rabid Brexiteer having replaced a much more moderate Conservative.

[newjez]

On 01/05/2017 at 4:41 PM, amibovered said:

Hard Brexit coming up

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/01/jean-claude-juncker-to-theresa-may-on-brexit-im-10-times-more-sceptical-than-i-was-before

More like a Greek rollover methinks.

Lots of blustering, and then complete capitulation. Of course the Greeks were worried about a military coup. We should not have that problem, but it will be much of the same, just on a different scale.

We really should have had a plan. Not doing so has left us in a very poor negotiating position.

Also, not having a realistic idea of the outcome, and all this 'they need us more than we need them' bullshit hasn't helped.

Complete shambles from out perspective. Let's hope they get better soon.

It's like May and Davis turned up to a gun fight with plastic spoons.

Edited May 3, 2017 by newjez

[BacktoDemocracy]

4 hours ago, newjez said:

More like a Greek rollover methinks.

Lots of blustering, and then complete capitulation. Of course the Greeks were worried about a military coup. We should not have that problem, but it will be much of the same, just on a different scale.

We really should have had a plan. Not doing so has left us in a very poor negotiating position.

Also, not having a realistic idea of the outcome, and all this 'they need us more than we need them' bullshit hasn't helped.

Complete shambles from out perspective. Let's hope they get better soon.

It's like May and Davis turned up to a gun fight with plastic spoons.

Come on now give 'em a bit of credit, they did turn up with water pistols.

Where are all these continental manufacturers telling the 'pollies' to shut up and stop threatening their markets, the biggest load of f*ck wittery ever to come out a lying Eton toffs face since Chamberlain and his letter from the Furher, so I suppose you could say they've got form on that basis.

Edited May 3, 2017 by BacktoDemocracy

[newjez]

1 hour ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

Come on now give 'em a bit of credit, they did turn up with water pistols.

Where are all these continental manufacturers telling the 'pollies' to shut up and stop threatening their markets, the biggest load of f*ck wittery ever to come out a lying Eton toffs face since Chamberlain and his letter from the Furher, so I suppose you could say they've got form on that basis.

It will hurt them. But it will cripple us. Because we were so unprepared and had and still have no idea what our end objective is, and no idea of what we can complete in the timeframe, we are screwed. There will be a coup, but it will be industry not military. We will capitulate under their terms. Pointless waste of a good opportunity.

[ScottieGirl]

49 minutes ago, newjez said:

It will hurt them. But it will cripple us. Because we were so unprepared and had and still have no idea what our end objective is, and no idea of what we can complete in the timeframe, we are screwed. There will be a coup, but it will be industry not military. We will capitulate under their terms. Pointless waste of a good opportunity.

Anything can happen and possibly will. How about this  for a scenario:May et al negotiate a deal then put it to a second referendum? Juncker has already said he would be prepared to rescind article 57. Not saying it will happen just hypothesising

[BacktoDemocracy]

27 minutes ago, newjez said:

It will hurt them. But it will cripple us. Because we were so unprepared and had and still have no idea what our end objective is, and no idea of what we can complete in the timeframe, we are screwed. There will be a coup, but it will be industry not military. We will capitulate under their terms. Pointless waste of a good opportunity.

How long do you think before the sh*t hits the fan, I am reckoning it will be the end of Autumn, interesting that May thought the negotiations would be secret.

The Times reckons that May won't get to be lead negotiator the EU want it to be less political and more about administration to administration.

How do you see big business taking 'over', not that I  disagree with your analysis I think it is becoming clearer and clearer that they just thought this was a jolly jape and that it would be just a 'quickie' in a dark alley and then business as usual with the Empire. I do just wonder whether Business will even bother to get involved or whether they will just cut their losses, bugger off and leave the country as an offshore platform for American capitalism like google et al to try and suborn the EU and Russia from.

Everyone thinks that with the democratic processes and courts created out of the 2nd WW that it is impossible for autocratic Gov't to flourish, we seem to be edging inexorably towards it with a media that produces one sided news, denigration of the courts approved of with absence of support from the govt, pressure to neuter independent news reporting and, in the UK the possibility of, effectively, a one party state, it is unfolding in front of us.   

I am wondering whether Big Business will put a stop to the idiocy or whether they will just see an opportunity for a low cost, low regulatory base off the EU shore where increases in tariffs can be offset by low overheads.

[newjez]

26 minutes ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

How long do you think before the sh*t hits the fan, I am reckoning it will be the end of Autumn, interesting that May thought the negotiations would be secret.

The Times reckons that May won't get to be lead negotiator the EU want it to be less political and more about administration to administration.

How do you see big business taking 'over', not that I  disagree with your analysis I think it is becoming clearer and clearer that they just thought this was a jolly jape and that it would be just a 'quickie' in a dark alley and then business as usual with the Empire. I do just wonder whether Business will even bother to get involved or whether they will just cut their losses, bugger off and leave the country as an offshore platform for American capitalism like google et al to try and suborn the EU and Russia from.

Everyone thinks that with the democratic processes and courts created out of the 2nd WW that it is impossible for autocratic Gov't to flourish, we seem to be edging inexorably towards it with a media that produces one sided news, denigration of the courts approved of with absence of support from the govt, pressure to neuter independent news reporting and, in the UK the possibility of, effectively, a one party state, it is unfolding in front of us.   

I am wondering whether Big Business will put a stop to the idiocy or whether they will just see an opportunity for a low cost, low regulatory base off the EU shore where increases in tariffs can be offset by low overheads.

I don't think they will panic till march next year, then we will get a strong and stable capitulation, and we will become Europe's poodle if we are lucky, gimp if we are not.

[newjez]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

Brilliant read from the ex Greek finance minister. I would be interested in reading his book. I agree wholeheartedly with his conclusions too. Britain's only chance is for a transitional Norway EEA/efta agreement. Anything else is madness. Hopefully May will come to her senses after she wins the election.

[Guest]

Blue murder with the local elections i see, corbyn's a real floater.

[BacktoDemocracy]

On 5/3/2017 at 8:12 PM, newjez said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/03/the-six-brexit-traps-that-will-defeat-theresa-may

Brilliant read from the ex Greek finance minister. I would be interested in reading his book. I agree wholeheartedly with his conclusions too. Britain's only chance is for a transitional Norway EEA/efta agreement. Anything else is madness. Hopefully May will come to her senses after she wins the election.

I  haven't read all of his articles, but I do feel you have to bear in mind that he is academically orientated and quite a purist Socialist so I think it was quite a shock to him dealing with hard headed bankers and mendacious politicians, and the Greeks had been milking the system pretty drastically so why he and his party were surprised that the EU were not interested in listening is a bit of a mystery.

There is obviously a moral dimension to it as they were leant the money seemingly without any due diligence but the govt of the time, did then spend it a bit like John Howard on buying voters support on the back of putative income from olive oil exports and tourism so inevitably they went bankrupt.

 

Edited May 5, 2017 by BacktoDemocracy

[newjez]

2 hours ago, BacktoDemocracy said:

I  haven't read all of his articles, but I do feel you have to bear in mind that he is academically orientated and quite a purist Socialist so I think it was quite a shock to him dealing with hard headed bankers and mendacious politicians, and the Greeks had been milking the system pretty drastically so why he and his party were surprised that the EU were not interested in listening is a bit of a mystery.

There is obviously a moral dimension to it as they were leant the money seemingly without any due diligence but the govt of the time, did then spend it a bit like John Howard on buying voters support on the back of putative income from olive oil exports and tourism so inevitably they went bankrupt.

 

It's not the greek problem which is relevant. It is the EU's treatment of the greek problem. They were prepared to self sacrifice before they would give concessions to greece.

We have people on here, politicians and the press saying - they need us more than we need them. What about the German car industry? 

None of that matters. There will be no compromise. We accept their terms - or we are out on our ear.

They don't care what damage it causes them. Look at how they have dealt with the GFC. All they had to do was drop the euro and they would have recovered as fast as us. But they couldn't do that.

We either face a recession worse and longer than the GFC, or we lose our influence and still effectively belong in the EU.

Unless, maybe we can form some sort of EEA/efta transition deal - if they will still have us and if there is still time. At least then we can slowly forge our way in the world. We really should be seriously sucking up to Norway.

That should have been the plan from the word go. But May had to pander to UKIP, the press and her Euro sceptics.

We can only hope that she makes progress after she wins the election. UKIP looks dead - so maybe there is hope.

[newjez]

5 hours ago, Sunset said:

Blue murder with the local elections i see, corbyn's a real floater.

It was bad, but on the BBC they were saying it wasn't as bad as it could have been. Still a big swing. But maybe not total destruction. 

[amibovered]

Hilarious that some people think the Government don't have a plan, so far May has shown herself to be a shrewd operator, she'd not be stupid enough to let on what she is after, gives the remoners something to whinge about though, not that they need much of an excuse. 

[Collie]

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2017/05/03/britain-disappears-overnight-leaving-behind-100-billion-brexit-bill/

Also read a great satirical headline yesteday which I can't find now

"Greek Immigrant loses job over Brexit"

[Collie]

3 minutes ago, amibovered said:

Hilarious that some people think the Government don't have a plan, so far May has shown herself to be a shrewd operator, she'd not be stupid enough to let on what she is after, gives the remoners something to whinge about though, not that they need much of an excuse. 

Well, if she has one, the civil servants who actually do the work and negotiations aren't in on it.  All the leaks out of Whitehall are that they haven't a clue what they are doing.

 

[amibovered]

1 hour ago, Collie said:

Well, if she has one, the civil servants who actually do the work and negotiations aren't in on it.  All the leaks out of Whitehall are that they haven't a clue what they are doing.

 

Like all the leaks about the surprise election? the civil servants are nothing but pen pushers, why would they know anything? the only people who know what May is really up to is her and her closest advisers, I'd take anything leaked by a pen pushing remoner with a huge pinch of salt. 

[Rallyman]

5 hours ago, newjez said:

It's not the greek problem which is relevant. It is the EU's treatment of the greek problem. They were prepared to self sacrifice before they would give concessions to greece.

We have people on here, politicians and the press saying - they need us more than we need them. What about the German car industry? 

None of that matters. There will be no compromise. We accept their terms - or we are out on our ear.

They don't care what damage it causes them. Look at how they have dealt with the GFC. All they had to do was drop the euro and they would have recovered as fast as us. But they couldn't do that.

We either face a recession worse and longer than the GFC, or we lose our influence and still effectively belong in the EU.

Unless, maybe we can form some sort of EEA/efta transition deal - if they will still have us and if there is still time. At least then we can slowly forge our way in the world. We really should be seriously sucking up to Norway.

That should have been the plan from the word go. But May had to pander to UKIP, the press and her Euro sceptics.

We can only hope that she makes progress after she wins the election. UKIP looks dead - so maybe there is hope.

On what actual hard facts of information do you have to say this do you honestly believe the likes of BMW, Mercedes are just going to accept not being able to sell in the uk , 

[Collie]

About 44% of the UK's exports are to the EU.  About 53% of the UK's imports are from the EU.  The imports will go up in price (some already have) due to a falling GBP + any tarriffs that UK imposes post a trade deal (politican's love rising prices don't they?).  The silver lining will be that it will be good for competing British goods (where they exist)

About 14% of the EU's exports are to the UK.  Yes, Brexit will hurt this trade but proportionly the UK will suffer more.  Brexit is a lose lose scenario economically and a very large majority of economists who have commented have said so.

But I guess ostriches don't have good ears.  They hear but don't listen.

 

 

[Rallyman]

45 minutes ago, Collie said:

About 44% of the UK's exports are to the EU.  About 53% of the UK's imports are from the EU.  The imports will go up in price (some already have) due to a falling GBP + any tarriffs that UK imposes post a trade deal (politican's love rising prices don't they?).  The silver lining will be that it will be good for competing British goods (where they exist)

About 14% of the EU's exports are to the UK.  Yes, Brexit will hurt this trade but proportionly the UK will suffer more.  Brexit is a lose lose scenario economically and a very large majority of economists who have commented have said so.

But I guess ostriches don't have good ears.  They hear but don't listen.

 

 

The pound is rising (Against the aud it is) so exports become more expensive and imports cheaper, nobody has a clue what will and wont happen as negotiations have not satred9 Maybe behind closed doors they have) . The so called experts have got things very wrong ,look at Trump did any body really belive he would become prsident ,I will reserve judgment unill hard facts are known , I'll  throw a cuve ball in what would happen if JC won the election ? is it a forgon conclusion that May will win as we have seen nothing is certain.

major and global business wil have a big say in all this

[newjez]

6 hours ago, Rallyman said:

On what actual hard facts of information do you have to say this do you honestly believe the likes of BMW, Mercedes are just going to accept not being able to sell in the uk , 

How badly would the EU economy have been affected if Greece had left the euro?

How badly have EU countries and companies been affected by the GFC?

Germany is one country in 27. Important yes, as is the UK. But they are not better than the European project. Even Germany's own leaders would not put themselves before the union.

 

[newjez]

1 hour ago, Collie said:

About 44% of the UK's exports are to the EU.  About 53% of the UK's imports are from the EU.  The imports will go up in price (some already have) due to a falling GBP + any tarriffs that UK imposes post a trade deal (politican's love rising prices don't they?).  The silver lining will be that it will be good for competing British goods (where they exist)

About 14% of the EU's exports are to the UK.  Yes, Brexit will hurt this trade but proportionly the UK will suffer more.  Brexit is a lose lose scenario economically and a very large majority of economists who have commented have said so.

But I guess ostriches don't have good ears.  They hear but don't listen.

 

 

What is the waiting period for a new Mercedes? 3 months. I assume that waiting period will decrease during the transition as they increase their supply to other markets. We on the other hand, are screwed. Until we capitulate.

[newjez]

37 minutes ago, Rallyman said:

The pound is rising (Against the aud it is) so exports become more expensive and imports cheaper, nobody has a clue what will and wont happen as negotiations have not satred9 Maybe behind closed doors they have) . The so called experts have got things very wrong ,look at Trump did any body really belive he would become prsident ,I will reserve judgment unill hard facts are known , I'll  throw a cuve ball in what would happen if JC won the election ? is it a forgon conclusion that May will win as we have seen nothing is certain.

major and global business wil have a big say in all this

UK business will certainly have a say. Where are BMW going to go?

This is not an election. You have all said the EU is undemocratic. That is why May wants an election. She wants to be undemocratic too. But in the end, it will come down to business pressure. The EU has other markets they can increase their supply to. That option isn't as effective for us. How long will business survive the siege? A siege generally fails from the inside.

Edited May 6, 2017 by newjez

[newjez]

The really worrying thing about this is that May has never shown the ability to compromise or even rationalise,. I don't think she is the best person for the job, and I think she will find it a very difficult experience for herself personally and professionally. She is good at implementing objectives, regardless of whether they make sense. She will lose sight of the big picture and compromise might not be within her. But she might have too large a mandate to be replaced.