The new tory leader ?

[VERYSTORMY]

It's not that simple. Not least because both major parties are in upheaval and internally divided. On what platform would either of them go to the country for a fresh mandate?

 

Because no country (other than Greenland) has ever left the EU, legal opinion in the UK is divided. This is what the House of Lords library has to say:

 

Invoking Article 50—The Prime Minister has said it would be for his successor and his or her Cabinet to decide whether the House of Commons should have a vote on the decision to trigger Article 50, the formal process set out in the Treaty on European Union for member states to follow should they decide to leave the EU. Some legal commentators agree that prerogative powers would enable a Prime Minister to take this decision; some have suggested that Parliament could have a role, and others have gone further, arguing that prior parliamentary approval would be required before Article 50 could be invoked.

.

 

The process is fairly simple legally.

Parliament will be required to vote to give the power to evoke Article 50.

This will give the government the right to do so, which can be verbal or written.

 

This is, putting my legal head on, the way it is likely to play out.

 

A new PM will be in place early September - possibly sooner, but most likely then.

Parliament is due back from recess on 5th September. It is unlikely a vote will take place that day.

Assuming a new PM was in place the week before opening on the 5th, it is possible it will be put to parliament that week, though I suspect it will be the week after - week commencing 12th.

Once parliament has given ascent, probably by a bill. The bill will be presented to the Queen the following week for Royal Ascent.

That would mean the government / new PM is able to invoke Article 50 around the end of September and I suspect that is when it will be.

After that, it is very much up to the EU and UK.

However, the Lisbon treaty is pretty clear. From Article 50 being invoked, the parties have up to 2 years to finalise the withdrawal. If it is not finalised by then, then the withdraws is automatic.

 

What is likely to happen between Article 50 and full withdrawal is open to some interpretation and as a result, a number of ways of carrying out the withdrawal are possible. The two main being to spend the period negotiating the details and once complete, only then will a full leave be carried out. The other, is a staggered leave as elements of the negotiation are completed with the final withdrawal occurring at the end. This method will have to be one of the first aspects for negotiations as both have different pluses and negatives for each side. I suspect that the former option would be preferred by the UK simply on the basis of ease - if the later were chosen, then each stage would require a new act of parliament.

[Perthbum]

[bunbury61]

So you are defending the BNP against the EU ?

 

Glad Gove is on the way out at least. He's a total nut job. It's a pretty dire state of affairs.

 

What ????...no I questioned the poster ,on his claims that I have affiliation with the bnp .

Probably because I dare to disagree with him

[Quinkla]

What ????...no I questioned the poster ,on his claims that I have affiliation with the bnp .

Probably because I dare to disagree with him

No - it's because you have no connection to Australian migration and seem to be almost word perfect in setting out BNP policy and ethos (standing up for the little man against big government and immigrants). Plus, there was your avatar of a skinhead superimposed on a blue union jack.

[bunbury61]

No - it's because you have no connection to Australian migration and seem to be almost word perfect in setting out BNP policy and ethos (standing up for the little man against big government and immigrants). Plus, there was your avatar of a skinhead superimposed on a blue union jack.

 

...thats john lydon ( johnny rotten of the sex pistols ) you numpty ......iam sure he will be well pleased with you calling him a skinhead ...get with the programme...dear me ...no wonder...do you know lydons politics ?

[Roberta2]

And what if parliament does not vote to evoke Article 50? On the basis that much of the Leave campaign was based on allegations now shown to be fraudulent? In particular, the notion that the UK could enjoy the benefits of the single market without having to allow the freedom of movement of peoples. And as the likely economic consequences, nearly all bad, become more apparent. It seems that the Tories are lining up pretty quickly behind Teresa May. Suggestion in The Times that if there is only one candidate, the need for a ballot among party members might be avoided. Among the reasons - to avoid an election campaign from which UKIP is likely to benefit most, given that Labour continues bent on self destruction. (The Lib Dems might benefit, I suppose.)

When you talk about "negotiating the details" after article 50 is invoked, the problem with that is that from the outset the UK will be negotiating on its own, from a position of great weakness, with 27 other countries. Many of which, notably France, will be keen to "kill the chicken to frighten the monkey". And as you say, the UK wlll be negotiating with a gun at its head. If "negotiations" are not finalized within two years, withdrawal - i.e. expulsion- is automatic.

In other words, yes this is a legal process. But once the train has left the station, it's going to be a train wreck for the UK. This is basically where law and politics - i.e. realpolitik -collide. We are a long long way from the UK as the "Offshore Balancer".

 

Not too sure if even the most pragmatic Tories fully grasp this. Of course, the sooner the Labour Party gets rid of Corbyn, the better. But he is now hoping the Chilcote report, due Wednesday, will further damage the Blairite wing of the party etc etc.

[Gbye grey sky]

The process is fairly simple legally.

Parliament will be required to vote to give the power to evoke Article 50.

This will give the government the right to do so, which can be verbal or written.

 

This is, putting my legal head on, the way it is likely to play out.

 

A new PM will be in place early September - possibly sooner, but most likely then.

Parliament is due back from recess on 5th September. It is unlikely a vote will take place that day.

Assuming a new PM was in place the week before opening on the 5th, it is possible it will be put to parliament that week, though I suspect it will be the week after - week commencing 12th.

Once parliament has given ascent, probably by a bill. The bill will be presented to the Queen the following week for Royal Ascent.

That would mean the government / new PM is able to invoke Article 50 around the end of September and I suspect that is when it will be.

After that, it is very much up to the EU and UK.

However, the Lisbon treaty is pretty clear. From Article 50 being invoked, the parties have up to 2 years to finalise the withdrawal. If it is not finalised by then, then the withdraws is automatic.

 

What is likely to happen between Article 50 and full withdrawal is open to some interpretation and as a result, a number of ways of carrying out the withdrawal are possible. The two main being to spend the period negotiating the details and once complete, only then will a full leave be carried out. The other, is a staggered leave as elements of the negotiation are completed with the final withdrawal occurring at the end. This method will have to be one of the first aspects for negotiations as both have different pluses and negatives for each side. I suspect that the former option would be preferred by the UK simply on the basis of ease - if the later were chosen, then each stage would require a new act of parliament.

 

I doubt that Article 50 will be invoked quite that fast. The new PM has to form her/his new cabinet and reach an agreement on the strategy to adopt in the future negotiations. It will be a tricky series of meetings because any Cabinet will almost certainly be made up with people with widely differing views.

 

That strategy needs to be put before Parliament although one of the problems is going into formal negotiations having shown your hand to the other side.

 

Although the EU members have stressed there will be no informal negotiations ahead of invoking Article 50 I suspect there will be a fair amount of public comment on both sides to test out the lie of the land.

 

I would expect Article 50 to be invoked in December or January.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Roberta2]

You can see one of the major difficulties already. May has said she would like EU migrants to be reassured that they can stay, but can make no guarantees because it would all have to be up for negotiation - i.e. for the EU to guarantee that UK citizens can remain in the EU post divorce. But of course she is being attacked for that, not least by Nicola Sturgeon. i.e. even before article 50 is invoked (assuming that it will), the probable next Prime Minister is being urged by her own countrypersons to give up an important card.

 

I don't see the business community in the EU or Britain being willing to wait until December or January. They always tell us that they can cope with just about anything except uncertainty. January is also far too close to the French elections.

 

Why assume that any of the British politicians, however clever and experienced, can now control the timing? Even if you put the best driver you can find behind the wheel of your train, it won't matter much. As a consequence of your own actions, you are now in the caboose.

[akiralx]

I doubt that Article 50 will be invoked quite that fast. The new PM has to form her/his new cabinet and reach an agreement on the strategy to adopt in the future negotiations. It will be a tricky series of meetings because any Cabinet will almost certainly be made up with people with widely differing views.

 

That strategy needs to be put before Parliament although one of the problems is going into formal negotiations having shown your hand to the other side.

 

 

The fact that Remain has a majority of at least 350 in the House of Commons is a slight problem. I suspect it may fail there and the new PM would have to call an election to test the mandate of Exit, with the Conservatives, Labour and LibDems all having Remain as official policy, and UKIP having Exit.

[Roberta2]

Neither major party will want an election. The main risk for the Tories is a flood of highly disgruntled voters voting for UKIP in droves. There is no need for an election. The PM can still easily form a majority of the floor of the Commons. And on what platform would the Tories run anyway? Any attempt to run on "Remain" would split their own party. A lot of those tweedy people in the shires who form the backbone of the party voted Leave for sovereignty reasons. Corbyn is widely suspected of having voted Leave himself, and there are many in Labor like him. Anyway, I think we can all agree that this is going to be very very tricky. Merkel is clearly signalling she wants to help by saying, in so many words, that she is out to get rid of Junker. May and Merkel seem to agree that Out is Out, and all that remains is when to agree to start negotiations which will do least damage to both UK and the EU. Among many other things, Merkel and May will both be aware of how much Putin stands to gain from a messy divorce. How long before he starts putting more pressure on the Baltics, for example? Still, there are new moves afoot to have Article 50 subject to parliamentary approval. Lots of moving parts. Can't help notice how much trivia is around when things are so serious. Who cares what shoes May wears? Who cares that Merkel is dowdy?

[Gbye grey sky]

You can see one of the major difficulties already. May has said she would like EU migrants to be reassured that they can stay, but can make no guarantees because it would all have to be up for negotiation - i.e. for the EU to guarantee that UK citizens can remain in the EU post divorce. But of course she is being attacked for that, not least by Nicola Sturgeon. i.e. even before article 50 is invoked (assuming that it will), the probable next Prime Minister is being urged by her own countrypersons to give up an important card.

 

I don't see the business community in the EU or Britain being willing to wait until December or January. They always tell us that they can cope with just about anything except uncertainty. January is also far too close to the French elections.

 

Why assume that any of the British politicians, however clever and experienced, can now control the timing? Even if you put the best driver you can find behind the wheel of your train, it won't matter much. As a consequence of your own actions, you are now in the caboose.

 

Invoking Article 50 is just a step in the process. It will do nothing to ease uncertainty in the business community for the next couple of years while negotiations play out.

 

The more heat that can be taken out of the eventual negotiations the better for all.

 

Everyone can say anything they like but, within reason, the actual timing for invoking Article 50 cannot be dictated by anyone in mainland Europe.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[newjez]

 

You forgot the tax dodger

 

 

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-leadership-election-andrea-leadsom-conservative-candidate-tax-affairs-a7117271.html

[Roberta2]

That is true. But there is nothing to stop the rating agencies further downgrading Britain, as time goes on. i.e. there are forces external to both the EU and the UK that cannot be ignored.

[Zack]

Firstly can we please have some adult debate and repllies

 

It probably has to be a brexiteer ( although they may go for Theresa may )

 

In my humble opinion ,it wont be Boris or Michael gove ..

 

Here's a couple

 

Liam fox and my tip ,someone who could really steady the ship .

For those that don't know her she comes across as a calming influence .

She was brilliant in the in /out debates and that is ANGELA LEADSOM .

It will probably take a head mistress type to sort the mess out

 

No ,she's nothing like Maggie ?

There is Not One Tory, That Can Sort this Mess Out. They put the British People in it. The Tories Are in a worse mess than Labour.Traitors the whole lot of them.Any Political Partythat Doesn't want to Govern it's own county, it's people,it's Armed Forced And Police. Is a Waste Of Space.Are Unpatriotic.And Traitors. Have no respect for the men and women,that fought and died for,the Once Great Britain.You Seem to Think Thatcher The Tyrant was some sort of Hero? She was the Worst Of All Tories. She Destroyed Britain's Heavy Industries and Manufacturing.Took A AXE to our Armed ForcesScrappingg Whole Regiments, Good Navy Ships Were Two Abreast in line,Excellentt Troop Carries the Same,Submarines 3 Abreast In LineAll Gettingg Scrappedd. Orders from Thatches Masters in Brussels.Thatcher put tens of thousands out of work,and out of themilitaryy.Britain was never the same. to this day.Thatcherr was kicked out of office in disgrace,by her own party.But it was far too late,she had crippled Britain for Ever,Nigel Farage and the UKIP should be put in as a caretaker government. Farage should see to the negotiationss for the final exit.

[newjez]

Move over Game of thrones and House of Cards - This is sounding more like star wars episode early episodes.

 

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ukip-accused-trying-push-conservative-leadership-candidate-andrea-leadsom-into-no-10-1568697

[bunbury61]

Firstly can we please have some adult debate and repllies

 

It probably has to be a brexiteer ( although they may go for Theresa may )

 

In my humble opinion ,it wont be Boris or Michael gove ..

 

Here's a couple

 

Liam fox and my tip ,someone who could really steady the ship .

For those that don't know her she comes across as a calming influence .

She was brilliant in the in /out debates and that is ANGELA LEADSOM .

It will probably take a head mistress type to sort the mess out

 

No ,she's nothing like Maggie

 

She was that unknown I called her Angela instead of Andrea ....shes right in the mix now ...2nd favourite now .....2 women front runners

[bunbury61]

There is Not One Tory, That Can Sort this Mess Out. They put the British People in it. The Tories Are in a worse mess than Labour.Traitors the whole lot of them.Any Political Partythat Doesn't want to Govern it's own county, it's people,it's Armed Forced And Police. Is a Waste Of Space.Are Unpatriotic.And Traitors. Have no respect for the men and women,that fought and died for,the Once Great Britain.You Seem to Think Thatcher The Tyrant was some sort of Hero? She was the Worst Of All Tories. She Destroyed Britain's Heavy Industries and Manufacturing.Took A AXE to our Armed ForcesScrappingg Whole Regiments, Good Navy Ships Were Two Abreast in line,Excellentt Troop Carries the Same,Submarines 3 Abreast In LineAll Gettingg Scrappedd. Orders from Thatches Masters in Brussels.Thatcher put tens of thousands out of work,and out of themilitaryy.Britain was never the same. to this day.Thatcherr was kicked out of office in disgrace,by her own party.But it was far too late,she had crippled Britain for Ever,Nigel Farage and the UKIP should be put in as a caretaker government. Farage should see to the negotiationss for the final exit.

 

Don't know about farage Zack ...but iam so glad we voted " out" .

I had the good fortune to do a job for a retired major - general of the British army ,he was bloody glad of the vote result as well .

Its going to be painful for a while ,I expected that .

 

But if we had voted remain ..further integration ....insistence on joining the euro .

Its been either a german or French ambition to control Europe for centuries.....napoleon and hitler had a good go at it..now its a joint effort

And its been our desire to resist ...throughout history ...its meant to be

[newjez]

Don't know about farage Zack ...but iam so glad we voted " out" .

I had the good fortune to do a job for a retired major - general of the British army ,he was bloody glad of the vote result as well .

Its going to be painful for a while ,I expected that .

 

But if we had voted remain ..further integration ....insistence on joining the euro .

Its been either a german or French ambition to control Europe for centuries.....napoleon and hitler had a good go at it..now its a joint effort

And its been our desire to resist ...throughout history ...its meant to be

 

 

That was sort of the whole point of it all.

 

Oh well. I'm glad you're happy for everyone in the construction industry to go through so much pain.

 

And that's just the start.

 

All for us to end up in exactly the same position, but with no influence.

 

Well done.

[bunbury61]

That was sort of the whole point of it all.

 

Oh well. I'm glad you're happy for everyone in the construction industry to go through so much pain.

 

And that's just the start.

 

All for us to end up in exactly the same position, but with no influence.

 

Well done.

 

Well done indeed ....and what influence is that you speak of ...1 against 27 ...£20 billion a year ,with only £10 billion coming back .

Did you watch panorama the night ....yes,it was situated outside of the south east .

Adrian Childs went back to west Bromwich ...watch it ,you might learn something .

This is how real people are living in the midlands and the north ....its criminal .

[Gbye grey sky]

Well done indeed ....and what influence is that you speak of ...1 against 27 ...£20 billion a year ,with only £10 billion coming back .

Did you watch panorama the night ....yes,it was situated outside of the south east .

Adrian Childs went back to west Bromwich ...watch it ,you might learn something .

This is how real people are living in the midlands and the north ....its criminal .

 

I do see your standpoint but worry about how Brexit will meet yours, and others, aspirations.

 

The reality is that 27 countries and 550 million people represents a substantial trading block with clout. Britain leaving will oblige them to work more closely to maintain this.

 

Britain's economy is much too fragile to engage in any kind of trade stand-off with the EU over single issues such as freedom of movement. The short term costs would be nigh on catastrophic for sure and the fall-out could last a very long time.

 

Like it or not globalisation has happened and governments no longer have the autonomy they once had. Global corporations and financial markets directly or indirectly influence everyone's lives now for good or ill. People who believe we have got our country back (whatever that really means) are in for a reality check sooner or later. Alone Britain is even more at the mercy of big business and financial markets than in the EU if anything.

 

Brexit will wind up being the most hollow of victories for those craving independence and control of borders.

[Parley]

It looks like Theresa May is going to be confirmed as the new Conservative leader and therefore Britain's 2nd female PM.

 

I wonder when Labour will be progressive enough to appoint a female leader ?

[Paul1Perth]

It looks like Theresa May is going to be confirmed as the new Conservative leader and therefore Britain's 2nd female PM.

 

I wonder when Labour will be progressive enough to appoint a female leader ?

Didn't they learn anything from the last one?

Loved Kenneth Clark's comments about Teresa May being " bloody difficult" and then followed up with but we worked for Maggie and laughed.

[Quinkla]

I wonder when Labour will be progressive enough to appoint a female leader ?

Labour has already had a female leader.

[bunbury61]

I do see your standpoint but worry about how Brexit will meet yours, and others, aspirations.

 

The reality is that 27 countries and 550 million people represents a substantial trading block with clout. Britain leaving will oblige them to work more closely to maintain this.

 

Britain's economy is much too fragile to engage in any kind of trade stand-off with the EU over single issues such as freedom of movement. The short term costs would be nigh on catastrophic for sure and the fall-out could last a very long time.

 

Like it or not globalisation has happened and governments no longer have the autonomy they once had. Global corporations and financial markets directly or indirectly influence everyone's lives now for good or ill. People who believe we have got our country back (whatever that really means) are in for a reality check sooner or later. Alone Britain is even more at the mercy of big business and financial markets than in the EU if anything.

 

Brexit will wind up being the most hollow of victories for those craving independence and control of borders.

 

What aspirations are those ? ....and what amuses me is , 2 weeks in ,people on this forum are not only predicting the future for the u.k,with certainty ,they are also calling their own working class people ,thick,stupid and racist .

These are people from areas where the posters have emigrated from .

By nature ,they are labour voters ,in labours heartland .

Ask yourself WHY they voted to leave ,when the majority of the labour party were telling them to vote "in".

That's the question people on this forum should be asking themselves.

I live here by the way ,in the west midlands ...yesterday I was in Dudley and Wolverhampton ...today iam in handsworth .

I meet real people ,I don't have to gather my info off the internet.

[Gbye grey sky]

What aspirations are those ? ....and what amuses me is , 2 weeks in ,people on this forum are not only predicting the future for the u.k,with certainty ,they are also calling their own working class people ,thick,stupid and racist .

These are people from areas where the posters have emigrated from .

By nature ,they are labour voters ,in labours heartland .

Ask yourself WHY they voted to leave ,when the majority of the labour party were telling them to vote "in".

That's the question people on this forum should be asking themselves.

I live here by the way ,in the west midlands ...yesterday I was in Dudley and Wolverhampton ...today iam in handsworth .

I meet real people ,I don't have to gather my info off the internet.

 

Why do you quote my post and then not address anything in it but go off on a tangent?

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk