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Is there a reccesion looming.


duffer34

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Having left the UK in 2008 having worked for a leading property developer I cant help but think that there is a big correction on its way. The price of housing in the major cities is a concern, housing is a basic requirement not a money making mechanism!!! $1million gets banded about like is a fair price - by the way its not!!!! believe me its sky high and the quality of build isn't great.

 

Debating on a return to the UK as it seems like earning $150,000K a year doesn't allow you to save up for a house and with the childcare and general living costs.

 

Is anyone else thinking the same as me, don't get me wrong Oz is amazing but the prices are getting out of control and is need addressing. There is a reason they call it a "housing buble" and we all know what happens with bubbles!!!!!

 

Look forward to hearing what other peeps think

 

Cheers

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Guest Guest66881

A lot of rentals around at the moment, a real indicator of what's going on if you ask me.

Slow down not a recession, so many houses being purchased over renting here in WA at least.

It's times like these that sorts out the Jones's from the realities:wink:

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There certainly seems to be a lot more positivity in the UK than I have noticed for a while. The sun is shining and the temperatures are rising which certainly helps the mood too. But then the south east of England is always more recession-proof and is now riding a wave - cannot speak for the rest of the UK. There is also a major housing bubble looming though in the south east of England. We had our house valued 2 years ago when we were planning the move and have just secured a buyer for 30% more than the 2013 value (which is ludicrous!). When interest rates head north - as they inevitably will - there will be a lot of pain for some.

 

If you reckon that house prices in Melbourne are unsustainable and it is a bubble that will burst then carry on renting and only consider buying when you reckon it hits the bottom. With all economic cycles there are winners and losers (I have been both as lost out big time in the late 80's/early 90's). As long as you can keep your job you can place yourself to gain from a downturn.

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The big problem is that house prices going up attracts investors. More investors higher prices.

People who can't afford the prices have to rent, raising rental price and yield - so more investors !!

Add the ridiculous negative gearing and what do you expect?

I have worked at Coles and every other person seems to have at least one investment property.

I guess they bought when prices were cheap(er).

We are waiting for the bubble to pop. Interest rates rising would help, but not sure that will happen any time soon.

But have been waiting for a number of years and have seen prices go up by 30%

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Guest littlesarah

House prices vary depending where you live. We manage comfortably on a lot less than $150 000, but we don't live in a capital city.

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A lot of rentals around at the moment, a real indicator of what's going on if you ask me.

Slow down not a recession, so many houses being purchased over renting here in WA at least.

It's times like these that sorts out the Jones's from the realities:wink:

 

Perth sales are dropping, and stock on market well up. Correction is on the cards.

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If it's going to happen it will happen

 

If it doesn't then it won't

 

I guess if living in a country where it happens

 

You have to deal/cope with it

 

I left the UK in the middle of one (not the reason I left) lost money on house and exchange rate

 

Buy a crystal ball if you want to know for sure

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My husband worked in the building industry - always boom or bust. Had the good years and the stressful bad years but we just got on with it - thankfully retired now.

 

Blind Freddy could see a recession looming quite some time ago.

 

It's just predicting and getting correct when the recession is coming isn't it Jock. Everyone knows there's one coming, I'm not talking Aus, WA, US or anywhere in particular at the moment. The GFC came and went and passed us by in Aus where most of the rest of the world suffered. The UK, Europe and the US has not even got back to where they were before the GFC, even though there seems to be a more upbeat story coming out of the UK. For what reason I don't know. All the rest of our families are back there and they say it's not getting any better, least not where they live. Sure they get by, have to don't you.

 

IMO there's another GFC coming as the people that caused the first one are still running the show and they've changed nothing. House prices are way out of reach of first time buyers in the UK, just like they are here. My niece is still waiting for there place to get back to what it was worth before the GFC. They were one of the last ones to get a 100% mortgage with interest only repayments, then had 3 kids so the house is no longer big enough, the banks wouldn't lend them anymore for another mortgage so they had an extension on the place they are in. They probably owe more now than when they bought the place and can't see a way forward. They are both teachers so aren't likely to be getting a big jump in salary anytime soon.

 

If anyone thinks it's a good idea to sell up here and go back to the UK, just for financial reasons, good luck to you but it's a gamble.

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If it's going to happen it will happen

 

If it doesn't then it won't

 

I guess if living in a country where it happens

 

You have to deal/cope with it

 

I left the UK in the middle of one (not the reason I left) lost money on house and exchange rate

 

Buy a crystal ball if you want to know for sure

 

Although sometimes it's pretty obvious. The thing is, if you were toying with the idea of leaving, it's easier while houses are still selling. The best time would have been when lady rainicorn did it. We haven't reached the worst time yet.

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IMO there's another GFC coming as the people that caused the first one are still running the show and they've changed nothing. House prices are way out of reach of first time buyers in the UK, just like they are here. My niece is still waiting for there place to get back to what it was worth before the GFC. They were one of the last ones to get a 100% mortgage with interest only repayments, then had 3 kids so the house is no longer big enough, the banks wouldn't lend them anymore for another mortgage so they had an extension on the place they are in. They probably owe more now than when they bought the place and can't see a way forward. They are both teachers so aren't likely to be getting a big jump in salary anytime soon.

 

You are being somewhat contradictory here. Leaving aside massive regional variations for house prices in the UK first you are saying it is bad news that house prices have stagnated since 2008 which is a bad thing then you are implying that they need to come down because house prices are too high.

 

I don't know who was more idiotic really. The banks for lending 100% (or even 110%) on homes or people who took those mortgages on. Why do people over-reach themselves? Presumably the people involved had never heard of the concept of saving. I fear we are backsliding a little to poor lending practices now that house prices are rising again - how soon people forget.

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The thing is, if you were toying with the idea of leaving, it's easier while houses are still selling

Where we live houses are selling pretty quickly

We've had so many fliers asking if we would be intersted in selling as they have clients waiting for our area

We haven't reached the worst time yet

Again crystal ball time who know's for sure

 

Are you in UK?

 

I get so confused with all those who post from the UK and not moving to Aus

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You are being somewhat contradictory here. Leaving aside massive regional variations for house prices in the UK first you are saying it is bad news that house prices have stagnated since 2008 which is a bad thing then you are implying that they need to come down because house prices are too high.

 

I don't know who was more idiotic really. The banks for lending 100% (or even 110%) on homes or people who took those mortgages on. Why do people over-reach themselves? Presumably the people involved had never heard of the concept of saving. I fear we are backsliding a little to poor lending practices now that house prices are rising again - how soon people forget.

 

I'm not contradicting myself. They were too high in 2008, they were too high way before that. They have stagnated in some parts of the country and are still too high for most forst time buyers to get on the market. I thought they were too high when we emigrated in 92. We had our house on the market for 50,000 and two couples, both working, no kids, wanted it. They couldn't get a mortgage.

 

The banks have just extended their lending practices and created problems for everyone, including themselves.

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Are you in UK?

 

I get so confused with all those who post from the UK and not moving to Aus

 

Agreed - I wish people would specify under 'Location' - though I'm not sure where Helensvale is... I'm inferring Australia? :rolleyes:

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Where we live houses are selling pretty quickly

We've had so many fliers asking if we would be intersted in selling as they have clients waiting for our area

 

Again crystal ball time who know's for sure

 

Are you in UK?

 

I get so confused with all those who post from the UK and not moving to Aus

 

I've lived in Perth most of my life. I've seen many recessions. I've never seen one as predictable as this, and I've never seen Perth so vulnerable before. But at the end of the day, it's just a recession. No reason to leave. But if you were thinking of leaving, you would be in danger of being trapped.

 

Not sure if you are being ironic there? Estate agents always do this. More so in a bad market. But isn't helensvale in Queensland? Different markets.

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Some people on here have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.

 

There hasn't been an official recession for about 30 years has there ?

 

If you consistently maintain there is going to be a recession eventually you will be right. Then you have to hope that everyone forgets that you had been forecasting it every year for the past 10.

 

Similar to the people who predict the upcoming season and always make the same prediction every year. Sooner or later they will be right.

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It's just predicting and getting correct when the recession is coming isn't it Jock. Everyone knows there's one coming, I'm not talking Aus, WA, US or anywhere in particular at the moment. The GFC came and went and passed us by in Aus where most of the rest of the world suffered. The UK, Europe and the US has not even got back to where they were before the GFC, even though there seems to be a more upbeat story coming out of the UK. For what reason I don't know. All the rest of our families are back there and they say it's not getting any better, least not where they live. Sure they get by, have to don't you.

 

IMO there's another GFC coming as the people that caused the first one are still running the show and they've changed nothing. House prices are way out of reach of first time buyers in the UK, just like they are here. My niece is still waiting for there place to get back to what it was worth before the GFC. They were one of the last ones to get a 100% mortgage with interest only repayments, then had 3 kids so the house is no longer big enough, the banks wouldn't lend them anymore for another mortgage so they had an extension on the place they are in. They probably owe more now than when they bought the place and can't see a way forward. They are both teachers so aren't likely to be getting a big jump in salary anytime soon.

 

If anyone thinks it's a good idea to sell up here and go back to the UK, just for financial reasons, good luck to you but it's a gamble.

 

I can only comment as someone living in the UK, the reason there are many upbeat stories coming out of the UK is because things generally are much more upbeat. Most people we know seem to be much more positive. The cost of living is actually falling, measurably and people are generally better off. Of course that doesn't apply to everyone everywhere.

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