Don't panic about Ebola

[MovingtoTasmania]

Another article...sad and disturbing, if true...

 

http://www.politicalears.com/blog/shock-claim-from-ghana-ebola-is-not-real/

 

I don't believe a word of it. What tosh.

 

There's a film called "Outbreak" with Dustin Hoffman and Donald Sutherland and Morgan Freeman about an outbreak of a similar type of thing that was "introduced" by the American Military and the Americans secretly had a vaccine. I wonder if the "nurse" that wrote the article had ever seen it..........

[Petals]

I read all the articles about it and the problem as I see it is that its a "virus", unfortunately they are clever bugs and can change so that is the worry, that the transmission will change.

 

As I see it with something like this movement of people needs to be restricted, I mean I am not going on holiday in Africa presently. I lived in Africa so I know all about what the OP is saying and its true no matter how much education there is magic and culture persist with all the myths.

 

When I lived in Africa typhoid broke out where I was living and it was dealt with quickly, the problem with this one is there is no vaccine.

 

As I have said before its like Aids when it first lifted its ugly head, people will worry and we are tribal too and live on myth as well so hard to stop people worrying.

Edited October 16, 2014 by Petals

[Graemsay]

I'm not sure if the threat from Ebola is being overplayed, as @VERYSTORMY suggests, or is being massively underplayed.

 

What terrifies me is that the spread has been exponential. If you look at the graph that Forbes published, the numbers of deaths are roughly doubling every month. Roughly:

 

 

• Early August: 1000
  
• Early September: 2000
  
• Early October: 4000
  

 

 

Most people really struggle to grasp these sorts of functions, but if the rate of increase continues then there'll be about a million deaths by June next year, and a billion by April 2016.

 

I'm not saying that's what's going to happen, but if the disease isn't brought under control, and spread more widely than Western Africa, then it could be really, really bad.

[Parley]

The basis of this story is a forecast, not fact. This is a prediction! Perhaps this guy needs to consider also getting a job on a psychicline!

 

It is not really a forecast, but based on observation.

 

The point is that of the total 9000 odd cases there may be 3000 included who are still in the throes of the disease.

They may not have died yet but many of them will.

 

The 70% is of people who have been through the whole lifecycle resulting in either death or full recovery.

 

I hope the guy isn't totally right as he is estimating the number of new cases skyrocketing.

[Marisawright]

I'm not sure if the threat from Ebola is being overplayed, as @VERYSTORMY suggests, or is being massively underplayed.

 

What terrifies me is that the spread has been exponential. .

 

As the OP says, if you've lived in Africa (as I have) these figures aren't surprising at all. If anything, I'm surprised the figures are so low, considering the lack of hygiene, suspicion of modern medicine, and cultural practices.

 

Unlike most diseases, Ebola victims are at their most infectious when they're dead. I can just picture the doctors trying to explain to the families that they can't have their loved one back for burial, or if they can, they must stay in a sealed coffin. I'm sure they'd obey that restriction for as long as it took to get out of sight - for most people in that region, it would be unthinkable not to say a proper and respectful goodbye. So one death would very likely lead to everyone at the funeral becoming infected - far more than an exponential curve!

 

I know from experience that it's almost impossible to persuade Africans they have to change traditional practices. For instance, when I was in Africa there was an aid program building water pumps so villagers would stop drinking and washing in dirty parasite-laden river water. But there was no electricity, so the pump had to be hand-pumped which was quite hard work. Training was given and the dangers of river water explained in the local language. All seemed well, but a month later, no one in the riverside villages was using the pumps - it was so much easier to walk down to the river and fill a bucket. When they were reminded about the dangers of river water, they just didn't believe it. "Our cows drink it and they don't get sick" was the common reply.

[Maruska]

I don`t pretend that I am an expert on Ebola. I am a nurse working in an emergency department - therefore a possible first point of contact with infected patient - so I did research what`s available about Ebola quite a bit.

1) 50% fatality was recorded in the past outbreaks, this one is far from over and we will be able to determine what the fatality rate was afterwards

2) I don`t agree that it`s difficult to spread the virus. As mentioned on here, the virus is transmitted via bodily fluids. I have an info from the infectious diseases control that the virus can survive out of body up to 7 days, in the right conditions. Imagine just one sick person going to the toilet on an airplane, vomiting there ( droplets are going to go to the floor, the flush button, the nappy changing table), then going back to his/her seat without washing hands, touching backs of other seats, utensils, table..... How many people are using the toilet after him, how many wash their hands really well? Right now, after the 2 Texas nurses became infected even though they knew they are dealing with Ebola and used protective equipment, there are questions whether the virus could have mutated and became transmitted airborne instead of droplet ( droplets fall to the ground, airborne stays suspended in the air and can be inhaled).

3) I do believe there is no reason to panic but at the same time, people need to be aware that there is a real possibility of infection and how to protect themselves

[BrownEyedGal]

I don`t pretend that I am an expert on Ebola. I am a nurse working in an emergency department - therefore a possible first point of contact with infected patient - so I did research what`s available about Ebola quite a bit.

1) 50% fatality was recorded in the past outbreaks, this one is far from over and we will be able to determine what the fatality rate was afterwards

2) I don`t agree that it`s difficult to spread the virus. As mentioned on here, the virus is transmitted via bodily fluids. I have an info from the infectious diseases control that the virus can survive out of body up to 7 days, in the right conditions. Imagine just one sick person going to the toilet on an airplane, vomiting there ( droplets are going to go to the floor, the flush button, the nappy changing table), then going back to his/her seat without washing hands, touching backs of other seats, utensils, table..... How many people are using the toilet after him, how many wash their hands really well? Right now, after the 2 Texas nurses became infected even though they knew they are dealing with Ebola and used protective equipment, there are questions whether the virus could have mutated and became transmitted airborne instead of droplet ( droplets fall to the ground, airborne stays suspended in the air and can be inhaled).

3) I do believe there is no reason to panic but at the same time, people need to be aware that there is a real possibility of infection and how to protect themselves

 

Thanks for that info, Maruska. I feel its reasonable to assume that can happen. We will see with case no. 2 re Dallas hospital, who travelled by plane when not showing symptoms.

 

As previously posted elsewhere my friend works in a hospital also in the ED. So far no training or discussion with staff on hospital protocol regarding infection control for Ebola.

[Maruska]

Thanks for that info, Maruska. I feel its reasonable to assume that can happen. We will see with case no. 2 re Dallas hospital, who travelled by plane when not showing symptoms.

 

As previously posted elsewhere my friend works in a hospital also in the ED. So far no training or discussion with staff on hospital protocol regarding infection control for Ebola.

 

We had multiple discussions in our ED about preparedness, what equipment to use, how to take samples of blood etc. Our ED is quite likely to attract travelers from surrounding hotels and cruise terminal as we are in the center of Sydney.

[starlight7]

What niggles at the back of my mind is how very infectious most other vomiting/diarrhoeal infections are- they sweep through nursing homes and hospitals like wildfire. What in particular makes Ebola different? Also the isolation garb that has to be worn has to be changed every hour because of the amount of perspiration generated and weight loss- so what happens to all the discarded clothing? Too many ways for the germs to get free to my mind.

[Rallyman]

If its spread by bodily fluids is sneezing or coughing not spreading the virus

[Paul1Perth]

I saw a brilliant chart yesterday which showed how hard it is to transmit and that put it into perspective. I understand it can be deadly but it has to be caught first. People forget that Ebola has been around for a long time. Do people remember the swine flu epidemic? What else would the newspapers have to put on the front covers if they werent scaremongering. Yes, it is a terrible disease for countries such as Africa but as VS states, this is to do with the living standards and access to medicine.

 

I really expected the guy who was diagnosed with it in the States to make a full recovery. My wife is a nurse and she said he'll be OK he's in the States. We were both surprised when he died. I've seen the articles and read things about how hard it is to catch and they all seem to make sense. Then you hear, daily it seems, health personnel who sound like they have taken all the precautions under the sun and still got infected.

 

I'm not worried or anything, you would have to be incredibly unlucky to get it where we live and we don't intend travelling anywhere. We have a friend who is going back to the UK flying Emirates very soon and she is paranoid. Asking my wife what she should wear to keep herself safe on the trip. We both think she's over the top but she's very worried.

 

I don't think the experts are doing a very good job. On the one hand you've got articles telling us not to worry and how hard it is to catch and then news reports nightly about if we don't get on top of it now it's a serious threat to the whole world and the numbers are going to double every four weeks. If it wasn't pretty easy to catch and spread there wouldn't be that many people with it and the concern wouldn't be so great.

 

I think the governments stance on helping has been the correct one so far. You're a long time dead and I wouldn't go near Africa for $500/hr. Great that there are people willing to risk their lives to help and I'm in awe of people like that, they deserve a medal.

[tonyman]

as VS says , dont worry about it too much .......it will be sorted out in no time at all ............:ssign12:

[newjez]

Quite interesting reading.

http://www.prevention.com/health/health-concerns/answers-questions-about-ebola-virus-symptoms-and-risks

 

There is a reason why everyone catches a cold, and few catch the flu. When you get the flu, people are I'll, and they stay at home. People work through a cold.

[Marisawright]

I really expected the guy who was diagnosed with it in the States to make a full recovery. My wife is a nurse and she said he'll be OK he's in the States. We were both surprised when he died. I've seen the articles and read things about how hard it is to catch and they all seem to make sense. Then you hear, daily it seems, health personnel who sound like they have taken all the precautions under the sun and still got infected.

.

Ah, but they didn't. Read this forum post about what happened at the US hospital:

http://hubpages.com/forum/topic/125901#post2658056

 

I just saw a photo of the infected Texan nurse while she was treating the Liberian patient. Her "protective clothing" left her neck exposed!

 

In Africa, it's very difficult to follow protocols exactly because they're working in such makeshift conditions, so it's no surprise there.

 

The death toll is very high in Africa for all kinds of other reasons that wouldn't apply in Western countries:

 

 

 

• Many people live miles from medical help so they're very, very sick by the time they get to a hospital - and of course, they've infected umpteen more people on their way there.

• Many people are afraid of Western medicine so they won't go to hospital anyway. So they're treated in their village and the relatives caring for them spread the virus every time they leave the house. And once they're dead, a traditional funeral demands that everyone touches the body to farewell it - and a dead Ebola victim is more infectious than a live one!!

• As previously stated, it's very difficult to maintain clinical standards of quarantine and hygiene when you're working in a tent.

 

Edited October 17, 2014 by Marisawright

[Petals]

i agree with Maruska, this virus is very bad. If it got to Australia and got into our bat population which is where it originates from then we would have a real problem on our hands. Also if it gets to Asia we are so close that it will be more difficult to prevent it spreading in our neighbouring territories.

 

Of course the experts are saying don't panic and we shouldn't because panic is not going to make any difference to outcomes. We just have to deal with it and bodily fluids in my books are saliva, mucus anything that is wet basically.

 

I have a useless immune system and get things badly so I do take precautions all the time. For example I never read the magazines at the doctors, in fact we have discussed that my doc and I. I hate supermarket trollys they seem to me to the be so dirty and we put our food in them. When do they ever get wiped or cleaned. This is how virus are transmitted so its important that we all have the knowledge of how long and what we need to be doing if we do have the unfortunate happen and the virus becomes widespread.

 

Its not rocket science and anyone without medical experience should be able to realise how disease and virus pass from one to another.

[Guest The Pom Queen]

If its spread by bodily fluids is sneezing or coughing not spreading the virus

Only if they come in to contact with mucous membranes, ie the droplets go in to your mouth, eyes, sex, an open cut.

Obviously we don't know a lot about Ebola but I see it being like HIV in the way it spreads. The worrying part for me is that it MAY be zoonotic.

[Alaska]

It seems to be much easier to catch than HIV - for example you can't catch HIV from kissing etc.

 

I think ebola IS zoonotic Pom Queen. I think that is how it goes into hiding amongst humans for ages but is still resident in animal populations and then comes back.

This is a good article I think:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/10/141015-ebola-virus-outbreak-pandemic-zoonotic-contagion/

[Parley]

In Africa they tend to eat bush meat which is a way they catch the disease.

[Diane]

I'm sure I saw one of those mythbuster experiments where they showed how particles from a toilet go into the air and stay there for some time when it is flushed (I think they were showing how unhygienic a toothbrush left out by the sink could be) so surely if an infected patient at a hospital used a loo, then flushed it, it is theoretically possible for the next person in there to inhale the germs, isn't it? I should stress here that I am completely ignorant about infectious diseases and am just going on what I've seen on TV, so quite possibly totally off the mark and wrong - and happy to be told so! I don't think panic helps anyone in any situation, but a healthy fear and more public awareness must surely be only sensible in this situation?

 

Can I also ask why the person posting above about their friend travelling with Emirates is so worried? Dubai is not in Africa is it? I thought it was Middle East/Asia? My parents are arriving in a couple of weeks coming with Emirates - should I be quarantining them on arrival?

[Parley]

The most germs are on your dish cloth.

[Alaska]

Hi Diane. I think you are right and that is the danger on flights etc. The article I posted the link to above (national geographic) gives this scenario with Ebola. Which certainly makes it sound pretty easy to catch, certainly compared to HIV.

 

"The world won't be free of Ebola 2014 until West Africa is free of it. Even severe restrictions, barring entry to anyone traveling from West Africa, would not make it impossible for the virus to get into America, or Europe, or wherever. To understand why, consider what I call the Nairobi Tabletop Scenario.

Imagine a doctor who departs from Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, feeling fine, on a flight to Nairobi, Kenya's capital, in East Africa. In transit he begins suffering a headache-nothing terrible yet, just discomfort, but it's the first hint of Ebola. At the Nairobi airport, in a café, the Liberian doctor coughs onto a table. Five minutes later, an American businessman touches that table. He rubs his eye. He departs to Singapore and spends three days there, in good health, discussing finance for his project in Kenya. Then he flies home to Los Angeles. To the screeners at LAX, he is an American businessman arriving from Singapore, with no history of recent travel in West Africa. But he's now infected with Ebola, carrying it into the United States.

How do you defend against the Nairobi Tabletop Scenario? By doing everything possible to end the epidemic in West Africa, and thereby to ensure that the Liberian doctor is healthy when he visits Nairobi."

 

 

I am not really worried about it at the moment but I am surprised when I read reports that it is "unlikely" to reach Australia as it doesn't seem too unlikely to me.

[Diane]

Hi Diane. I think you are right and that is the danger on flights etc. The article I posted the link to above (national geographic) gives this scenario with Ebola. Which certainly makes it sound pretty easy to catch, certainly compared to HIV.

 

"The world won't be free of Ebola 2014 until West Africa is free of it. Even severe restrictions, barring entry to anyone traveling from West Africa, would not make it impossible for the virus to get into America, or Europe, or wherever. To understand why, consider what I call the Nairobi Tabletop Scenario.

Imagine a doctor who departs from Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, feeling fine, on a flight to Nairobi, Kenya's capital, in East Africa. In transit he begins suffering a headache-nothing terrible yet, just discomfort, but it's the first hint of Ebola. At the Nairobi airport, in a café, the Liberian doctor coughs onto a table. Five minutes later, an American businessman touches that table. He rubs his eye. He departs to Singapore and spends three days there, in good health, discussing finance for his project in Kenya. Then he flies home to Los Angeles. To the screeners at LAX, he is an American businessman arriving from Singapore, with no history of recent travel in West Africa. But he's now infected with Ebola, carrying it into the United States.

How do you defend against the Nairobi Tabletop Scenario? By doing everything possible to end the epidemic in West Africa, and thereby to ensure that the Liberian doctor is healthy when he visits Nairobi."

 

 

I am not really worried about it at the moment but I am surprised when I read reports that it is "unlikely" to reach Australia as it doesn't seem too unlikely to me.

 

As I read your post, I suddenly realised I was rubbing my eye - arrrrgggghhhhhhh! :laugh: God, the powers of suggestion!

 

I think I saw a headline today about some cruise ship that had been isolated as one of the passengers on that was suspected to have Ebola - to be honest, although I'm not panicking, it is a worry, and I think we will see a lot worse.

 

On the subject of the percentage rates of death as a result, I am also pretty sure I heard there are several different strains of the Ebola virus, some worse than others, so that will obviously affect the percentage rates.

[Paul1Perth]

I'm sure I saw one of those mythbuster experiments where they showed how particles from a toilet go into the air and stay there for some time when it is flushed (I think they were showing how unhygienic a toothbrush left out by the sink could be) so surely if an infected patient at a hospital used a loo, then flushed it, it is theoretically possible for the next person in there to inhale the germs, isn't it? I should stress here that I am completely ignorant about infectious diseases and am just going on what I've seen on TV, so quite possibly totally off the mark and wrong - and happy to be told so! I don't think panic helps anyone in any situation, but a healthy fear and more public awareness must surely be only sensible in this situation?

 

Can I also ask why the person posting above about their friend travelling with Emirates is so worried? Dubai is not in Africa is it? I thought it was Middle East/Asia? My parents are arriving in a couple of weeks coming with Emirates - should I be quarantining them on arrival?

 

It's one of our friends and she tends to be a worrier about lots of things. We've tried to make her feel better about the trip. She has a stoppover in Dubai which is a major stopover from a bunch of airlines which could have people flying from anywhere. She's more worried about that. We think she's a bit over the top.

[Lucharmily]

Speaking as someone who resides in the NT, I can only imagine the devastation if ebola ever reached our shores and got into the aboriginal communities here.