Gough Whitlam Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Any thoughts on why the dollar has declined so much today against the pound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srh82 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The short reason is that the Australian Dollar at present is not as attractive as say the U.S. Dollar or the British Pound as their economies are experiencing growth, whereas Australia is struggling a bit. Invariably it's more complicated than that and there are multiple factors at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Good economic news out of UK today has led it higher against USD. Nothing to do with the Aussie dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolman Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Yes basically more good economic news out of the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Drop in iron ore prices I understand. But the reality is that there is a flight from the AUD currently which may bring the value down to more 'normal' levels over the next 6-12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Que Sera Sera Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Good news for my son who's been sent British pounds for his Birthday then. :laugh: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The RBA and government want a lower dollar to lift the export economy. They will attempt all policy to facilitate this happening. Declining interest rates and weakening economy all add to the decline, but overseas events as ever dictate largely the strength of the dollar. Sadly could well be down to low 60's mid to late next year. Will certainly feel poorer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Drop in iron ore prices I understand. But the reality is that there is a flight from the AUD currently which may bring the value down to more 'normal' levels over the next 6-12 months. Depending on what you term normal level. The way it is heading is below that and indeed the policy is set to ensure that outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srh82 Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Makes going back to the UK to work more attractive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Depending on what you term normal level. The way it is heading is below that and indeed the policy is set to ensure that outcome. Historic levels are well over 2AUD to the GBP. Over the past 50 years the average rate I understand is near $2.20 to the £. Most are forecasting a return to those levels in the next 6 - 12 months. The AUD has been an overvalued currency since 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolman Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Drop in iron ore prices I understand. But the reality is that there is a flight from the AUD currently which may bring the value down to more 'normal' levels over the next 6-12 months. That as long as generally negative news about the Australian economy in recent times has weakened the AUD. It is hard to know what a normal level is really, I have known it approaching 1:1 right up to 3:1 so I guess £1:$2 could be considered 'normal'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Average over past 20 years is $2.20 to the £ http://www.ukforex.co.uk/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/yearly-average-rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard88uk Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Personally i would like to get as many AUD to the £ as i can when i head over in September! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Any thoughts on why the dollar has declined so much today against the pound? Not sure if I approve of your choice of name. Many would call it sacrilege. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeepingTom Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Average over past 20 years is $2.20 to the £ http://www.ukforex.co.uk/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/yearly-average-rates Here is good snapshot why the Pound is savaging the Aussie today: https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/2162-pound-higher-on-wage-data-343243 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gough Whitlam Posted June 19, 2015 Author Share Posted June 19, 2015 Pound just hit Aus 2.05 dollars to a pound. Long time coming - suspect it will be 2.20 by the end of the year. Greece could knock it back a cent or two?? Any armchair economists out there like to have a guess where it will be at Xmas 2015? A UK interest rise would lift it a good 10 cents?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted June 19, 2015 Share Posted June 19, 2015 Pound just hit Aus 2.05 dollars to a pound. Long time coming - suspect it will be 2.20 by the end of the year. Greece could knock it back a cent or two?? Any armchair economists out there like to have a guess where it will be at Xmas 2015? A UK interest rise would lift it a good 10 cents?? Depends on whether the US raises rates. If they do, I'd punt for 2.4. Just a guess mind you. No one can predict rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malvina Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 How is it then that my UK pension increases at these times? But this week is the first time my UK pension payment has been late. I hope this isn't due to pension changes in UK - anyone else had this problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The RBA and government want a lower dollar to lift the export economy. They will attempt all policy to facilitate this happening. Declining interest rates and weakening economy all add to the decline, but overseas events as ever dictate largely the strength of the dollar. Sadly could well be down to low 60's mid to late next year. Will certainly feel poorer. Why will you feel poorer flag? I guess if you constantly convert in your head dollars to pounds then you might, otherwise your in Aus, you get paid in dollars and the price of goods is in dollars. Other reason is if you're planning an overseas holiday and the exchange rate isn't quite so good. On the bright side it might stop those threads about how the price of beer is terrible and how Aus is a rip off. If the dollar keeps falling against the pound then the beer will seem cheap to people coming from the UK soon.:wink: You are right about the RBA constantly going on about the dollar being too high, even now. They would like it lower and can still drop the interest rates further if they want it to decline. Usually a comment from the governor of the reserve bank can have a serious affect on a countries currency and our guy continues to talk it down at every chance. Not too worried though. No plans to be going abroad at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 The AUD dollar has barely moved lately against the USD. So the GBP rate may be more about the pound's strength than any weakness in the AUD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 How is it then that my UK pension increases at these times?But this week is the first time my UK pension payment has been late. I hope this isn't due to pension changes in UK - anyone else had this problem? Do you get your UK pension in pounds? If so it's just the exchange rate that affects how much you get in dollars. I get a coalboard pension and that's pretty good at the moment. Not checked whether it's been any later than normal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Why will you feel poorer flag? I guess if you constantly convert in your head dollars to pounds then you might, otherwise your in Aus, you get paid in dollars and the price of goods is in dollars. Other reason is if you're planning an overseas holiday and the exchange rate isn't quite so good. On the bright side it might stop those threads about how the price of beer is terrible and how Aus is a rip off. If the dollar keeps falling against the pound then the beer will seem cheap to people coming from the UK soon.:wink: You are right about the RBA constantly going on about the dollar being too high, even now. They would like it lower and can still drop the interest rates further if they want it to decline. Usually a comment from the governor of the reserve bank can have a serious affect on a countries currency and our guy continues to talk it down at every chance. Not too worried though. No plans to be going abroad at the moment. Why would I think in foreign pounds? Means little too me these days. OK UK has got more expensive but no plans to visit. I have about as much interest as what UK people think about the cheapness of beer as I do my local barista contribution to raising GDP levels. While the lowering dollar inflates Australia for foreigners the continued alienation of Australians being able to afford a house will likely reach epic proportions. Chinese buyers, being the big shakers in the real estate area, will find housing ever more affordable again putting out of range of locals. Imports will soar. As will oil prices. Most things being imported these days. Not good times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 Why would I think in foreign pounds? Means little too me these days. OK UK has got more expensive but no plans to visit. I have about as much interest as what UK people think about the cheapness of beer as I do my local barista contribution to raising GDP levels. While the lowering dollar inflates Australia for foreigners the continued alienation of Australians being able to afford a house will likely reach epic proportions. Chinese buyers, being the big shakers in the real estate area, will find housing ever more affordable again putting out of range of locals. Imports will soar. As will oil prices. Most things being imported these days. Not good times ahead. If you're right about the Aussies being unable to afford the first house then the prices should be falling like a stone anytime soon. Not seen it happening yet. No doubt the real estate people will counter that by saying what a great time to buy it is because of the falling prices.:laugh: Aren't there well policed rules about foreign ownership of property? I'm sure I saw a case in Sydney not long ago where some Chinese guy had been forced to sell some multi million dollar place because he hadn't followed those rules. Don't know what happened but hopefully, if rules are in place they will be stuck to. I've noticed cars prices have never been lower recently, Imported or not. Oil price rises will affect everyone, World Wide, won't be just Aus. In fact Aus has an oil industry so it will help some sectors of the economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skani Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 If you're right about the Aussies being unable to afford the first house then the prices should be falling like a stone anytime soon. Not seen it happening yet. It's not happening because, although the percentage of first home buyers entering the market has dropped significantly, the percentage of investment purchases has also increased significantly. So those without a home can't afford to buy their first residence.... but those with a residence already are being assisted to buy more income producing property. Aren't there well policed rules about foreign ownership of property? No, they haven't been well policed. That well publicised case in Sydney has led to an avalanche of referrals to the FIRB. Currently they are investigating 200 properties. There is also, currently, a vast data matching exercise being undertaken between the Tax Office, Department of Immigration and the various state Lands Titles Offices to check for other breaches of the rules. I suspect that the 200 properties now under investigation are just the tip of the iceberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 22, 2015 Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's not happening because, although the percentage of first home buyers entering the market has dropped significantly, the percentage of investment purchases has also increased significantly.So those without a home can't afford to buy their first residence.... but those with a residence already are being assisted to buy more income producing property. The same rules of supply and demand affect the rental market as the purchasing market. If there are too few properties rental prices rise but they will drop when there is a glut and houses stay empty. Investors would then stop getting returns and there will be a flight from that form of investment. Rules of supply and demand apply to the housing market but the effects can be slow to kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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