Is australia living in a massive bubble and will it go pop if not why not

[snapper123]

We are moving to Aus but are concerned about rising prices food housing etc we lived in Ireland when it collapsed.Would hate to move to Aus and go through it all again . There is also currently a recruitment freeze on government jobs in WA is this normal ?.I find it hard to comprehend how prices and wages can just keep on rising. Will this have an effect on the mining industry exporting Etc

[Guest Guest66881]

Happening everywhere mate, the world over - only place that looks any good now is blighty if you read the press that is:wink:

[Guest Guest 47403]

I don't think anyone on here can give you a definitive answer on that, all economies go through peaks and troughs Australia avoided the GFC as it wasn't tied in significantly with the Eurozone or US economies, and the Oz economy continues to grow steadily................not sure about Ireland but food and house prices are rising in the UK too it's not unique to Australia.

[ali]

It's the 2nd time recruitment has been frozen in the 7+ years I've lived here

[bunbury61]

We are moving to Aus but are concerned about rising prices food housing etc we lived in Ireland when it collapsed.Would hate to move to Aus and go through it all again . There is also currently a recruitment freeze on government jobs in WA is this normal ?.I find it hard to comprehend how prices and wages can just keep on rising. Will this have an effect on the mining industry exporting Etc

 

I think oz is a safer long term bet .....because of its minerals and ties with asia ( although that is a bit of a worry ), if china goes pear shaped , heaven help us ....the e.u is ****ed ....and so is the U.S , ( they are pumping billions in just to keep the ship afloat , and one day it has to be paid back ) .....thank god , the govt in the U,K didn't do that ...its far from perfect here in the u,k, as we are the bloody lifeboat of the e.u ( well London is )

[snapper123]

I don't think anyone on here can give you a definitive answer on that, all economies go through peaks and troughs Australia avoided the GFC as it wasn't tied in significantly with the Eurozone or US economies, and the Oz economy continues to grow steadily................not sure about Ireland but food and house prices are rising in the UK too it's not unique to Australia.

Wish they could me a definitive answer I would have a punt on the share market (LOADS A MONEY ) just looking for general opinions cheers

[snapper123]

It's the 2nd time recruitment has been frozen in the 7+ years I've lived here

Are ok for so more that likely just gone over their budget ?

[kevin jc]

I think the UK open to all border policy is digging a great big hole that no amount of cost cutting is going to fill.

That's a bubble in the making right there along with house prices blowing the average wage out of the water.

For me ( and I'm just Mr average don't know jack ) I think I will be more trusting of the Australian bubble bouncing along a lot longer than the UK one.

End of the day, would rather sleep on the beach than under a bridge!

Don't think the wife and kids would be too happy but I'm easy to please.

[bunbury61]

I think the UK open to all border policy is digging a great big hole that no amount of cost cutting is going to fill.

That's a bubble in the making right there along with house prices blowing the average wage out of the water.

For me ( and I'm just Mr average don't know jack ) I think I will be more trusting of the Australian bubble bouncing along a lot longer than the UK one.

End of the day, would rather sleep on the beach than under a bridge!

Don't think the wife and kids would be too happy but I'm easy to please.

 

 

I think as a country economically the u.k will always be stronger than Australia ....I mean does Australia actually make anything of note ? .....its a good job there is a vast wealth of minerals ....but as I said in the previous post Australia is a better long term bet for the individual .

Also the thing that never gets mentioned is Australias geography . which may be its saving grace ....because its going to kick off sooner or later , and oz is nicely tucked out of harms way , when the **** starts flying .

[Petals]

Australia survived before we had the mining, we live on the sheeps back which is rarely mentioned. We export a lot of food and will continue to do so. The country is so vast and the cattle stations and sheep stations so large you could not even imagine them. England could fit into a cattle station. They muster with helicopters and export the beef. Yes the mining boom has been good but Aus will always survive because the peoople who came to live here, pioneers and convicts were tough and their descendants are tough and resilient people. They are nothing like Brits anymore. In fact Australia is nothing like Britain.

 

Britain has wealth yes but in the hands of a few. There are also a lot more people in Britain, however there are a lot more to feed as well as we found out during world war 2.

 

The prices will continue to rise and what you have to do is think in dollars not pounds, you cannot live in Australia and keep thinking, oh that costs such and such in UK.

 

My sister recently spent a holiday with me in March this year and she said she did not see much difference in the prices at all.

 

Housing is expensive, housing is expensive in UK as well if you want to live in desired areas, no country is immune to peoples perceptions of where to live and where they will pay more.

[spangley]

I'm glad I'm not the only person who's had that thought.

[RioMarina]

We are moving to Aus but are concerned about rising prices food housing etc we lived in Ireland when it collapsed.Would hate to move to Aus and go through it all again . There is also currently a recruitment freeze on government jobs in WA is this normal ?.I find it hard to comprehend how prices and wages can just keep on rising. Will this have an effect on the mining industry exporting Etc

 

Theres nothing more sure that Australia is in a bubble. Inflation has gone through the roof over the past years and has been left to be uncontrolled. The dollar is too high, house prices too high and wages too high. Its a global competition and when you look at costs to produce anything or sell anything in Australia they dwarf every country. Totally uncompetative globally and for sure something will give, It already has. Anyones guess for the timing but its stacked to the downside. Recession coming again soon.:wink:

[Guest Guest 47403]

Theres nothing more sure that Australia is in a bubble. Inflation has gone through the roof over the past years and has been left to be uncontrolled. The dollar is too high, house prices too high and wages too high. Its a global competition and when you look at costs to produce anything or sell anything in Australia they dwarf every country. Totally uncompetative globally and for sure something will give, It already has. Anyones guess for the timing but its stacked to the downside. Recession coming again soon.:wink:

 

Australian inflation has been fairly stable and consistant for the last 10 years WTF are you talking about?

 

And just to add inflation has consistantly been below the average wage increase.

 

I'm sure if anyone cares to read your post history all you are bothered about (hoping for) is a reccession/bursting of the Oz bubble :wink:

[RioMarina]

Australian inflation has been fairly stable and consistant for the last 10 years WTF are you talking about?

 

And just to add inflation has consistantly been below the average wage increase.

 

I'm sure if anyone cares to read your post history all you are bothered about (hoping for) is a reccession/bursting of the Oz bubble :wink:

 

 

:wink:

[Xenon4017]

Theres nothing more sure that Australia is in a bubble. Inflation has gone through the roof over the past years and has been left to be uncontrolled. The dollar is too high, house prices too high and wages too high. Its a global competition and when you look at costs to produce anything or sell anything in Australia they dwarf every country. Totally uncompetative globally and for sure something will give, It already has. Anyones guess for the timing but its stacked to the downside. Recession coming again soon.:wink:

 

I take it the glass is half empty for you then.

 

According to http://www.rba.gov.au/, the rate of inflation is 2.9%. If that's "through the roof", you need to get the building inspector round.

 

But as for living in a bubble, I think there is some truth in that. Not an economic housing bubble, set to go pop. I mean an insular perspective. Petals wrote:

"Aus will always survive because the peoople who came to live here, pioneers and convicts were tough and their descendants are tough and resilient people."

That may have been true 50 years ago, but the latest generation have gotten very used to sitting back and letting the state/system provide for them. Sure, not all of them lie on the couch all day, but there's a widespread notion that all you have to do is get the education, go to uni (or learn a trade) and that a career will be handed on a plate. That an inner city flat is within everyone's reach. That the "quarter acre block" dream is the way it should be for everyone. And you can see the resentment every day on forums. Either it's the fault of the 457's, or the Chinese buying houses.

 

It's not going to all come crashing down, but there will be a change in society over the next decade or so. We've gone from a nation "all in it together" to a nation of "boundless growth". The next stage will probably not be quite so positive.

[RioMarina]

I take it the glass is half empty for you then.

 

According to http://www.rba.gov.au/, the rate of inflation is 2.9%. If that's "through the roof", you need to get the building inspector round.

 

But as for living in a bubble, I think there is some truth in that. Not an economic housing bubble, set to go pop. I mean an insular perspective. Petals wrote:

"Aus will always survive because the peoople who came to live here, pioneers and convicts were tough and their descendants are tough and resilient people."

That may have been true 50 years ago, but the latest generation have gotten very used to sitting back and letting the state/system provide for them. Sure, not all of them lie on the couch all day, but there's a widespread notion that all you have to do is get the education, go to uni (or learn a trade) and that a career will be handed on a plate. That an inner city flat is within everyone's reach. That the "quarter acre block" dream is the way it should be for everyone. And you can see the resentment every day on forums. Either it's the fault of the 457's, or the Chinese buying houses.

 

It's not going to all come crashing down, but there will be a change in society over the next decade or so. We've gone from a nation "all in it together" to a nation of "boundless growth". The next stage will probably not be quite so positive.

 

:wink: You lot crack me up.

[Johndoe]

Theres nothing more sure that Australia is in a bubble. Inflation has gone through the roof over the past years and has been left to be uncontrolled.

 

Same old,,same old................the usual supsects spouting crap without a thought for the genuine fears of potential migrants

 

[TABLE=class: recent-table dynamic]

[TR]

[TH]Year[/TH]

[TH]mar[/TH]

[TH]jun[/TH]

[TH]sep[/TH]

[TH]dec[/TH]

[TH]ann[/TH]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2014[/TD]

[TD]2.9%[/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2013[/TD]

[TD]2.5%[/TD]

[TD]2.4%[/TD]

[TD]2.2%[/TD]

[TD]2.7%[/TD]

[TD]2.5%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2012[/TD]

[TD]1.6%[/TD]

[TD]1.2%[/TD]

[TD]2%[/TD]

[TD]2.2%[/TD]

[TD]1.7%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2011[/TD]

[TD]3.3%[/TD]

[TD]3.5%[/TD]

[TD]3.4%[/TD]

[TD]3%[/TD]

[TD]3.3%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2010[/TD]

[TD]2.9%[/TD]

[TD]3.1%[/TD]

[TD]2.9%[/TD]

[TD]2.8%[/TD]

[TD]2.9%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2009[/TD]

[TD]2.4%[/TD]

[TD]1.4%[/TD]

[TD]1.2%[/TD]

[TD]2.1%[/TD]

[TD]1.7%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2008[/TD]

[TD]4.3%[/TD]

[TD]4.4%[/TD]

[TD]5%[/TD]

[TD]3.7%[/TD]

[TD]4.4%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2007[/TD]

[TD]2.5%[/TD]

[TD]2.1%[/TD]

[TD]1.8%[/TD]

[TD]2.9%[/TD]

[TD]2.3%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2006[/TD]

[TD]2.9%[/TD]

[TD]4%[/TD]

[TD]4%[/TD]

[TD]3.3%[/TD]

[TD]3.5%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2005[/TD]

[TD]2.4%[/TD]

[TD]2.5%[/TD]

[TD]3.1%[/TD]

[TD]2.8%[/TD]

[TD]2.7%[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD]2004[/TD]

[TD]2%[/TD]

[TD]2.5%[/TD]

[TD]2.3%[/TD]

[TD]2.5%[/TD]

[TD]2.3%[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[jasepom]

Inflation is under control in Australia. It's really only house prices that have seen huge rises due to speculative purchasing and increased demand from overseas buyers. Property is the exception everywhere that's why they don't appear on any inflation statistics it just doesnt obey any rules.

 

 

A lot of household goods have actually come down in price. Five years ago a 42' plasma TV cost around $2000. Now you can pick up an LED equivalent for under half that. Also cars are no more expensive than they were 10 years ago. Similar story to eating out here.

 

The fuel to Australia being expensive is really down to reported house prices. Occassionslly there will be reports of how much groceries have gone up compared to other countries. But we have a local market with local wages.

 

There's a good article on bobinoz website which uses labour rates as an indication on how expensive Australia is. Or how many goes you have to work to purchase goods. That's a good indication of whether it's expensive here.

 

As an example based on minimum wages it takes 18 mins work to earn a Big Mac here whilst it's 23 mins in UK. So wages are a big factor in determining cost of living.

[flag of convenience]

Housing being the principle commodity out of whack big time with the rest of the economy. Not included in inflation figures of course. Australia is more exposed than many other countries regardless than some would like the believe. We are more tied up with the workings of the Chinese economy than any other nation on earth I can think off. Way over reliant on wealth from the ground and create too little of high value.

Wool and food export will hardly be of the value to take over from the loss of mineral wealth once boom further subsides.

 

Interesting how so many Poms believe the old slogan, "She'll be right mate", as more Aussies have their doubts. Nothing to do with scaring potential immigrants but rather obvious to those that care to look.

Living standards are fully anticipated to fall as the boom subsides just how far is the unknown factor.

I imagine many on this forum have never lived in Australia during a recession. Even less in a nation with a falling safety net. Time will tell.

[jasepom]

Also the thing about Australia is it does not need to worry about what is happening overseas as much as other countries. Australia is pretty self sufficient in terms of it has a small population and a big back yard to feed it. Also a strong banking and technology sector. This county won't starve

[Marisawright]

We are moving to Aus but are concerned about rising prices food housing etc we lived in Ireland when it collapsed.Would hate to move to Aus and go through it all again . There is also currently a recruitment freeze on government jobs in WA is this normal ?.I find it hard to comprehend how prices and wages can just keep on rising. Will this have an effect on the mining industry exporting Etc

 

The big thing about Australia is that its banks didn't collapse during the GFC, so the government didn't have to rescue them. All they did was offer a guarantee on deposits to set people's minds at rest, but it's never had to be used. Most governments that are in big trouble - like Ireland, Greece etc - are in that state because their banks collapsed and cost the government millions.

[Guest]

Australia in terms of economy is a very small country, when it goes down here it feels pain more so than in the UK. The UK has a certain amount of self support through it being large in terms of population and economy.

Australia has already started to slide down the slippery slope, shop fronts closing, job freezes and people getting laid off.

 

eg in Perth 16,000 people have jobs that are related to the gorgon project, when it finishes (fairly soon and ramping down in a years time) there are no other large projects to take up those jobs. This is also the case in mining. There are already a lot of people out of work now and people are selling up and moving on. Canada seems popular.

 

if I was looking at coming here now i would look elsewhere but I'm half way through my ozzy experince

[flag of convenience]

The big thing about Australia is that its banks didn't collapse during the GFC, so the government didn't have to rescue them. All they did was offer a guarantee on deposits to set people's minds at rest, but it's never had to be used. Most governments that are in big trouble - like Ireland, Greece etc - are in that state because their banks collapsed and cost the government millions.

 

The amount guaranteed has since been reduced. Australian banks are heavily over exposed to the housing market. A bubble prick and they would find themselves in trouble. Of course the government would bail them out as well they know, but at tremendous cost to the taxpayer. No great talent required by the banks to date.

[Keith and Linda]

The amount guaranteed has since been reduced. Australian banks are heavily over exposed to the housing market. A bubble prick and they would find themselves in trouble. Of course the government would bail them out as well they know, but at tremendous cost to the taxpayer. No great talent required by the banks to date.

 

Yes plenty of pricks around, big and little :biggrin:

[Marisawright]

Theres nothing more sure that Australia is in a bubble. Inflation has gone through the roof over the past years and has been left to be uncontrolled. The dollar is too high, house prices too high and wages too high. Its a global competition and when you look at costs to produce anything or sell anything in Australia they dwarf every country. Totally uncompetative globally and for sure something will give, It already has. Anyones guess for the timing but its stacked to the downside. Recession coming again soon.:wink:

 

You've been listening to Tony Abbott too much. I do think the whole world is riding for a fall and Australia can't avoid being dragged down with it - but if you look at the facts, not the political spin, you'll see that inflation has been well controlled and wages have grown in line with it. As for a debt problem - if Australia's economy is sick, then almost every other country in the world is in intensive care. All you have to do is look at the percentage of GDP, e.g. compare Australia to the UK, the US, Canada, any of the EU countries.

 

 

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock