flag of convenience Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Seriously though, Australia does seem to be going through a period of readjustment. The dollar is too high, and the wages too high, but give it a year or two of pain, and she'll be right. The dollar is arguably too low almost on par with $NZ. Wages are not high considering the high cost of living. Many under thirty never likely to get on the housing ladder without a lifetime of debt. Things were allowed to progress to such a state for far too long. They should have been managed several years back. Will things be right in a couple of years? Pretty much up for grabs. A nation with far too many eggs in one basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobeTrotta Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 At least it has now dropped from the high of US $1.06 to around 89 cents. That will help exporters and the tourism industry. Actually it got to $1.11 before the decline.....not $1.06 as i was shipping money in from USA that or the bank screwed up bloody unlikely. People have a short memory in 2008 it was $2.25 to a quid....cant always be $1.45 as it got to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The dollar is arguably too low almost on par with $NZ. Wages are not high considering the high cost of living. Many under thirty never likely to get on the housing ladder without a lifetime of debt. Things were allowed to progress to such a state for far too long. They should have been managed several years back.Will things be right in a couple of years? Pretty much up for grabs. A nation with far too many eggs in one basket. All the economists seem to think the dollar is too high and the reserve bank have been trying to force the value down for some time, so they should be a bit happier this week. Many under thirty never likely to get on the housing ladder without a lifetime of debt Has it ever been any different? We bought a house in our late 20's in the UK. Little end terrace place that you couldn't swing a cat in and we spent the next 2 years making it livable. We were both working and took out the usual crippling mortgage. That was back in 1986 and in Manchester. Shortly after I got a job working in London and you couldn't buy a dog kennel for what we had paid for the house in Manchester. Often wondered how younger people got a start down there, but they seem to manage. Things are pretty good now I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If it happens I'm sure we'll get through it somehow. We came in the middle of a recession and it didn't put us off emigrating. Both gave up good jobs to come with nothing to come to and we managed then. Unemployment in 92 was a lot worse than it is now, but we wanted a change. The unemployment rate when the GFC hit (2007) was 4.4% and actually fell to 4.2% in 2008. Since then it has increased to be about 5.8% according to the article. Much less where we are in WA. Same website I looked at showed the unemployment rate in 1999 (as far back as it went) was 7.5%. I have a feeling it was much worse in 92 when we came and had slowly been on the decrease. Living here I've been reading for a few years now how things are going into decline, the mining boom is over, big companies have stopped investing, people are being laid off and I haven't really seen things change that much. I think we are lucky in this part of the country though and wouldn't want to be live somewhere that's going to be affected by Holden leaving manufacturing, for example. There are going to be pockets of fairly high unemployment and other pockets where there is next to none. Northern Territory seems to be doing exceptionally well. 1992 recession while bad you still had a low cost economy. Folk could life from the dole then. House prices were low, especially for Brit's. We are entering a totally different era. Both sides of government have spent their way out of a recession to such an extent that the pot is pretty much empty. A great fortune has been largely squandered. Ideas seem few and far between with regards to a course of action. Cut back on services. More Privatization. An increase in the GST. All very original not. An unnecessary record growth in population to keep the housing market ticking over. Allowing foreign investors ran havoc in the same market. Lowest number of First Time Home Buyers ever recorded. Poor yields on rental income. I'd say things are yet to become visually so evident. I do notice though a massive increase in mostly young begging in the CBD of Perth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobeTrotta Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 To add some economic realities to what some might conceive as a pessimistic thread; I for one think its a more realistic look at the truth of the economy in Australia. Namely, the economy has been held up by mining et al. for years. Facts the Aussie banks did not invest in the type of default swaps banks in USA and Europe did. Fact Australian debt as a % of GDP is approximately 27% considerably lower than USA, UK et al. Despite these positives and the fact they haven't had a recession is over 22 years it's inevitable they will. Adelaide unemployment is holding at 6.7% if we accept these figures oranges to oranges. However, certain facts are that the change in how credit profiles come March in Australia are then reported and recorded will affect how easy it has been for people to access personal credit this will have some effect on the availability of credit and I reckon an impact on housing as the reality of how badly leveraged some folks are is finally known. For those who don't know they do not or rather have not had as sophisticated credit reporting here as we have had in UK or USA which basically means they have been able to borrow willy nilly. I will stop there, I could go on,but I am sure I have bored people to sleep if they haven't died from the heat. Anyway, its only money and life goes on and you can't take it with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobeTrotta Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 To add some economic realities to what some might conceive as a pessimistic thread; I for one think its a more realistic look at the truth of the economy in Australia. Namely, the economy has been held up by mining et al. for years. Facts the Aussie banks did not invest in the type of default swaps banks in USA and Europe did. Fact Australian debt as a % of GDP is approximately 27% considerably lower than USA, UK et al. Despite these positives and the fact they haven't had a recession in over 22 years it's inevitable they will. Adelaide unemployment is holding at 6.7% if we accept these figures oranges to oranges. However, certain facts are that the change in how credit profiles come March in Australia are then reported and recorded will affect how easy it has been for people to access personal credit this will have some effect on the availability of credit and I reckon an impact on housing as the reality of how badly leveraged some folks are is finally known this in turn mean a tightening of credit and also as unemployment rises due contractions that have already commenced in many sectors defaults in housing will increase. Given 40% of the work force here is part time casual temporary contract type work this too will impact heavily. Australia has to have the level of wages it has in order to support the cost structure of living here its flat out economically unsustainable for businesses to hire staff at the labor rates they have which thus stunts any growth in employment and given the enormous number of small businesses economic growth is unlikely without government investment which won't happen will the recession hits it will be worse as Australia lacks economic diversity on a global scale. For those who don't know they do not or rather have not had a sophisticated credit reporting system here as we have had in the UK or USA, which basically means they have been able to borrow willy nilly. I will stop there, I could go on, but I am sure I have bored people to sleep if they haven't died from the heat. Anyway, its only money and life goes on and you can't take it with you. me I look at the bright side I'm breathing LFC are in top 4 and the heat is going away tomorrow only 28c life couldn't be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 All the economists seem to think the dollar is too high and the reserve bank have been trying to force the value down for some time, so they should be a bit happier this week. Has it ever been any different? We bought a house in our late 20's in the UK. Little end terrace place that you couldn't swing a cat in and we spent the next 2 years making it livable. We were both working and took out the usual crippling mortgage. That was back in 1986 and in Manchester. Shortly after I got a job working in London and you couldn't buy a dog kennel for what we had paid for the house in Manchester. Often wondered how younger people got a start down there, but they seem to manage. Things are pretty good now I reckon. Well yes it actually has been better. At 12.5% First Home Buyers making up the market it has never been lower. That is even with lowest ever interest rates. House prices way over inflated and more are questioning the feasibility of huge debt. Indeed the 80's in UK was just before the downturn a couple of years later in late 80's (where folk were handing their keys over at least in London, as prices fell.)All sorts of folk taken in by the greed of the time at getting into housing. But outside of London and a few of the choice cities prices were still pretty reasonable if not very cheap. I've never been to Manchester but can't imagine it was expensive at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Well yes it actually has been better. At 12.5% First Home Buyers making up the market it has never been lower. That is even with lowest ever interest rates. House prices way over inflated and more are questioning the feasibility of huge debt. Indeed the 80's in UK was just before the downturn a couple of years later in late 80's (where folk were handing their keys over at least in London, as prices fell.)All sorts of folk taken in by the greed of the time at getting into housing. But outside of London and a few of the choice cities prices were still pretty reasonable if not very cheap. I've never been to Manchester but can't imagine it was expensive at the time. All comes down to your definition of reasonable and cheap I guess but we paid 22,000 pounds for our house and sold it 5 years later for 50,000. That paid for us to emigrate. We were just lucky. Like I said though I don't think things have been much different for first time buyers for years. You either have to suck it up, get a mortgage that will let you get on the market or wait till you can. In the meantime save up whilst living with your parents. That seems to have been the way forward for generations. When we were selling our house privately we put a sign in the window and had two couples newly married, all in work, no kids who both wanted the house. They were local and knew how much we had spent and what we had done to it. We had re-plastered, re-wired, new kitchn, new bathroom, papered and painted the place top to bottom, had the central heating fixed, double glazing, new doors. They both went away and applied for a mortgage. Neither couple could get one, they were both really upset and wanted us to drop the price. We were already way under what the local real estate agent said we could get for it and we were in no rush, thought we'd give it a couple of weeks. Next week a single girl came round, liked the place and asked if she could come back with her Dad, who was a bank manager. She came back the next day and said she would have it and her Dad sorted out the mortgage for her. I know a couple of people my sons age (24) here and they already have 4 x 2 properties in decent areas. They work on the mines and have paid a lot off their mortgage already. We have been trying to get my son to get on the ladder, or at least consider moving out:wink:. He prefers saving up again for another spell of travelling. He's booked tickets to go to the states and stay with an American guy he met in the Greek Islands. Arranged to go for their Spring Break for some reason.:cool: He enjoyed tomorrowland so much he's heading back there this year too. Ah well, only young once I guess, plenty of time for settling down later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frogian Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 ..............For those who don't know they do not or rather have not had a sophisticated credit reporting system here as we have had in the UK or USA, which basically means they have been able to borrow willy nilly......but I am sure I have bored people to sleep if they haven't died from the heat On the first part of your statement: 1) Don't know about the credit reporting system here but when we bought our house a few years back everything was going great. Then the s#it hit the fan with the downturn and 7 days before settlement the bank turned round and told us they wanted twice the deposit originally agreed on or else it was game over. 2) I arrange finance (business and personal) for the gear I sell. From what I see, lending isn't being done "willy nilly". If it was I'd be laughing. On the second part of your statement I reckon: heat factor = zero %. Sleep factor = 99.99% (couldn't put 100% for that 'cos I've replied , so you obviously haven't sent me to sleep....yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colinmaclec Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 All comes down to your definition of reasonable and cheap I guess but we paid 22,000 pounds for our house and sold it 5 years later for 50,000. That paid for us to emigrate. We were just lucky. Like I said though I don't think things have been much different for first time buyers for years. You either have to suck it up, get a mortgage that will let you get on the market or wait till you can. In the meantime save up whilst living with your parents. That seems to have been the way forward for generations. When we were selling our house privately we put a sign in the window and had two couples newly married, all in work, no kids who both wanted the house. They were local and knew how much we had spent and what we had done to it. We had re-plastered, re-wired, new kitchn, new bathroom, papered and painted the place top to bottom, had the central heating fixed, double glazing, new doors. They both went away and applied for a mortgage. Neither couple could get one, they were both really upset and wanted us to drop the price. We were already way under what the local real estate agent said we could get for it and we were in no rush, thought we'd give it a couple of weeks. Next week a single girl came round, liked the place and asked if she could come back with her Dad, who was a bank manager. She came back the next day and said she would have it and her Dad sorted out the mortgage for her. I know a couple of people my sons age (24) here and they already have 4 x 2 properties in decent areas. They work on the mines and have paid a lot off their mortgage already. We have been trying to get my son to get on the ladder, or at least consider moving out:wink:. He prefers saving up again for another spell of travelling. He's booked tickets to go to the states and stay with an American guy he met in the Greek Islands. Arranged to go for their Spring Break for some reason.:cool: He enjoyed tomorrowland so much he's heading back there this year too. Ah well, only young once I guess, plenty of time for settling down later. Your sons friends work in mining making inflated wages what about the young people who do office jobs, retail, factory work etc? They wont even make $50k a year??? And i am sure you didn't have to take a mortgage for 5,6 or 7 times your salary back in 86 either. The average wage here is $70k or so and the avg house 500K so that is x7 and you think that is sustainable? This is a problem in a lot of countries not just Australia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlobeTrotta Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On the first part of your statement: 1) Don't know about the credit reporting system here but when we bought our house a few years back everything was going great. Then the s#it hit the fan with the downturn and 7 days before settlement the bank turned round and told us they wanted twice the deposit originally agreed on or else it was game over. 2) I arrange finance (business and personal) for the gear I sell. From what I see, lending isn't being done "willy nilly". If it was I'd be laughing. On the second part of your statement I reckon: heat factor = zero %. Sleep factor = 99.99% (couldn't put 100% for that 'cos I've replied , so you obviously haven't sent me to sleep....yet). Okay, just to clarify 'willy nilly' as a term denoted in this context somewhat careless or haphazard ill informed approach to consumer lending e.g. the current reporting system here has not until March 2014 recorded approvals or declination's (I know big word) only applications ergo one making a credit decision does not know if you have excessive credit or not far beyond the non-reporting of utilities and telecoms accounts not reported at all. Furthermore, there has been no reporting of credit limits. In summary, how can a credit officer effectively use a FICO or otherwise scoring system to determine worthiness with limited information; its akin to the old days when we used to manually do credit assessments and trusted the information written down that would mistakenly (tongue in cheek) fail to disclose all the relevant liabilities in order to skew the ratios. Now point is, Joe or Josephine (Not wishing to leave the women out) Bloggins may have maxmized his credit and ability to pay now doesn't have liquidity and the risk for greater defaults as they have increasingly tapped lines of credits for mortgages etc they will no longer have access to as their credit scores will decrease accordingly. Bored you now. Having greater equity position from a increased down payment just provides you and them greater cushion for decreases in value but when others lend against that margin thats when it goes pear-shaped as it did in 2008 and also back in 80's in USA. can we discuss over cold one I need to get to Cairns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack13 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 good. Then they will understand what weve all been through in Europe. The way I see it at the moment many Australians have more money than sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skippy79 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 If it happens I'm sure we'll get through it somehow. We came in the middle of a recession and it didn't put us off emigrating. Both gave up good jobs to come with nothing to come to and we managed then. Unemployment in 92 was a lot worse than it is now, but we wanted a change. The unemployment rate when the GFC hit (2007) was 4.4% and actually fell to 4.2% in 2008. Since then it has increased to be about 5.8% according to the article. Much less where we are in WA. Same website I looked at showed the unemployment rate in 1999 (as far back as it went) was 7.5%. I have a feeling it was much worse in 92 when we came and had slowly been on the decrease. Living here I've been reading for a few years now how things are going into decline, the mining boom is over, big companies have stopped investing, people are being laid off and I haven't really seen things change that much. I think we are lucky in this part of the country though and wouldn't want to be live somewhere that's going to be affected by Holden leaving manufacturing, for example. There are going to be pockets of fairly high unemployment and other pockets where there is next to none. Northern Territory seems to be doing exceptionally well. were left Oz in 93 because of the lack of work, my dad came to holland and within 2 months had a great job and 4 months later the rest of the family followed.... I am looking to move back in 2016 myself, so hopefully things will start to be back on the up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skippy79 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 All comes down to your definition of reasonable and cheap I guess but we paid 22,000 pounds for our house and sold it 5 years later for 50,000. That paid for us to emigrate. We were just lucky. Like I said though I don't think things have been much different for first time buyers for years. You either have to suck it up, get a mortgage that will let you get on the market or wait till you can. In the meantime save up whilst living with your parents. That seems to have been the way forward for generations. When we were selling our house privately we put a sign in the window and had two couples newly married, all in work, no kids who both wanted the house. They were local and knew how much we had spent and what we had done to it. We had re-plastered, re-wired, new kitchn, new bathroom, papered and painted the place top to bottom, had the central heating fixed, double glazing, new doors. They both went away and applied for a mortgage. Neither couple could get one, they were both really upset and wanted us to drop the price. We were already way under what the local real estate agent said we could get for it and we were in no rush, thought we'd give it a couple of weeks. Next week a single girl came round, liked the place and asked if she could come back with her Dad, who was a bank manager. She came back the next day and said she would have it and her Dad sorted out the mortgage for her. I know a couple of people my sons age (24) here and they already have 4 x 2 properties in decent areas. They work on the mines and have paid a lot off their mortgage already. We have been trying to get my son to get on the ladder, or at least consider moving out:wink:. He prefers saving up again for another spell of travelling. He's booked tickets to go to the states and stay with an American guy he met in the Greek Islands. Arranged to go for their Spring Break for some reason.:cool: He enjoyed tomorrowland so much he's heading back there this year too. Ah well, only young once I guess, plenty of time for settling down later. tell you son to look out for another ozzie wearing the ozzie rugby jersey on the second weekend of tomorrowland..... finally getting there this year, can't wait ( although I might a bit older than the most, this is the best festival of the year IMO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Your sons friends work in mining making inflated wages what about the young people who do office jobs, retail, factory work etc? They wont even make $50k a year??? And i am sure you didn't have to take a mortgage for 5,6 or 7 times your salary back in 86 either. The average wage here is $70k or so and the avg house 500K so that is x7 and you think that is sustainable? This is a problem in a lot of countries not just Australia. The average house price when we bought our first one would have been way over what we paid for our first. When your young you have to get what you can afford, not necessarily what you would really want, just to get on the ladder. There are plenty of places around Perth where you could get a house for a lot less than the average 500K. My sons friends who are in the mines, as I've already said, have paid a lot of their mortgage off already. Most young people don't have the cash to do that. Neither have we tbh, we are still paying our mortgage off and have a couple of years to go before it's done. I also know some young people who are having houses built and they are working in Woolworths. They are out in Yanchep but it can be done. Just had a look on Domain and the first one I saw was being sold off as a perfect starter home. [h=1][/h] Property Summary PropertyType: Bedrooms: 4 Bathrooms: 2 Carspaces: 2 [h=2]Property Summary[/h] Price: $399,000 FROM Property Type: House Suburb: Yanchep (profile) Region: North Region Land Area: 416 sqm We wouldn't have been able to consider anything like that when we trying to get in the market in the UK and I don't know why youngsters expect to be able to start off in something like this now, but they do and a lot seem to mange it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeegieDave Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Crack on mucker,not something that i lose any sleep over,click the mouse and pio has gone for another day.Just cant understand people who join a forum purely to slate either country,like the grown men with families who have nothing to do but scour the internet all day looking for bad news stories to post,pitiful I often think that too.. I don't understand why people who don't live in Aus and have no intention of living in Aus and offer absolutely no help to anyone looking to move to Aus scan the internet looking for negative news reports to post then try gloss it over by acting like they care about the outcome of Aus or the people living here when anyone with a brain can see that they would glow should Australia hit some hardship.. Sad B*stards Pablo!! If I had a full time job and a relationship and family and living in a country that I was settled in and apparently happy I would be living my life rather than spending every free minute on here posting the same repetitive drivel which usually entails trying to convince everyone on here that their country/city/town is the dogs b0llocks and Australia is a sh!tty hellhole! I would be interested in the outcome of a psychological assessment on these types of people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bensdad Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the reason I very rarely log onto this site anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest16631 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 This is the reason I very rarely log onto this site anymore! .......and that's a shame..IMO....... ......in.an answer to the op.....? .......I don't know tbh....... ........but in answer to the few who seem to delight in posting negativity...... .........it's their bag...... ...........let them carry it...... ...........there will always be such.........delighting in misery or unkindness.... ............just as there will always be those who delight in the joy of others.... ..............and can see the goodness of a place...... ................just strive to be the latter.........ime.... ..............good to see you bensdad.....! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest66881 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just echoing Tinks words:wink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Your sons friends work in mining making inflated wages what about the young people who do office jobs, retail, factory work etc? They wont even make $50k a year??? And i am sure you didn't have to take a mortgage for 5,6 or 7 times your salary back in 86 either. The average wage here is $70k or so and the avg house 500K so that is x7 and you think that is sustainable? This is a problem in a lot of countries not just Australia. Hence few young or first time buyers not from overseas getting into the market. A big problem indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hence few young or first time buyers not from overseas getting into the market. A big problem indeed. Keep saying it day and night a hundred times and one day your mantra will come true.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I often think that too.. I don't understand why people who don't live in Aus and have no intention of living in Aus and offer absolutely no help to anyone looking to move to Aus scan the internet looking for negative news reports to post then try gloss it over by acting like they care about the outcome of Aus or the people living here when anyone with a brain can see that they would glow should Australia hit some hardship.. Sad B*stards Pablo!! If I had a full time job and a relationship and family and living in a country that I was settled in and apparently happy I would be living my life rather than spending every free minute on here posting the same repetitive drivel which usually entails trying to convince everyone on here that their country/city/town is the dogs b0llocks and Australia is a sh!tty hellhole! I would be interested in the outcome of a psychological assessment on these types of people... Agree 100%. What I would say is that because these people are really hard to relate to and the opinions expressed are so unbalanced in the main, it provides yet another incentive to leave them behind in the UK and emigrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Que Sera Sera Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I often think that too.. I don't understand why people who don't live in Aus and have no intention of living in Aus and offer absolutely no help to anyone looking to move to Aus scan the internet looking for negative news reports to post then try gloss it over by acting like they care about the outcome of Aus or the people living here when anyone with a brain can see that they would glow should Australia hit some hardship.. Sad B*stards Pablo!! If I had a full time job and a relationship and family and living in a country that I was settled in and apparently happy I would be living my life rather than spending every free minute on here posting the same repetitive drivel which usually entails trying to convince everyone on here that their country/city/town is the dogs b0llocks and Australia is a sh!tty hellhole! I would be interested in the outcome of a psychological assessment on these types of people... :notworthy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Keep saying it day and night a hundred times and one day your mantra will come true.... It is present here and now. Keep up and you'll se it so. Less First Home Buyers than ever recorded. No mantra about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 good. Then they will understand what weve all been through in Europe. The way I see it at the moment many Australians have more money than sense. Or/And the ever optimists. Gambling being a big part of genetic make up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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