flybyknight Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 it can be hard to seperate local and national factors. perth is shrinking due to the comodities collapse, but in the big eastern cities demand outstrips supply, driving up prices. rates go down, but prices driven ever higher, if it doesn't collapse, it's going to leave a lot of buyers in a very fragile position. it's lucky employment is so strong oh hang on...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTA Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 (edited) All I know is people are lining up to pay well over $1M near me for houses.Youngish Asian couples. Whether they are rich, or are borrowing $800000 mortgages at 4.5% i would love to know. I think there will be a correction but not till interest rates are in a rising cycle, and currently they are still falling, so I think the correction is a few years away yet. $800,000 at 4.5% is affordable but there can't be much wriggle room. History repeats and I remember 18% interest rates not so long ago. Just imagine trying to finance a 1m mortgage at 18%, thats 180k per year just to keep from going backwards! I'll even vote for Keating again if thats what it takes. Edited April 1, 2015 by FTA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 All of these countries owing all this money. Seems almost everything and everyone is in debt. Who is lending this money? China. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 it can be hard to seperate local and national factors. perth is shrinking due to the comodities collapse, but in the big eastern cities demand outstrips supply, driving up prices. rates go down, but prices driven ever higher, if it doesn't collapse, it's going to leave a lot of buyers in a very fragile position. it's lucky employment is so strong oh hang on...... Perth isn't shrinking though. People are still coming here at a pretty fast rate. We went past 2,000,000 yesterday. I watched a program on ABC last night about how Aus. got through the GFC without a hickup when every other developed nation suffered. TBH the program was full of politicians blowing their own trumpet and taking the credit and not one person siad the obvious. It was the price of Iron Ore that got us through it. Nothing could be more simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 China. Try another, China's national debt is also out of control. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101854344 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith and Linda Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Perth isn't shrinking though. People are still coming here at a pretty fast rate. We went past 2,000,000 yesterday. I watched a program on ABC last night about how Aus. got through the GFC without a hickup when every other developed nation suffered. TBH the program was full of politicians blowing their own trumpet and taking the credit and not one person siad the obvious. It was the price of Iron Ore that got us through it. Nothing could be more simple. The company I work for have just opened their Perth Office, also having just won a few construction projects in and around Perth too. I would not have thought they would invest in a shrinking economy, if they have then maybe setting themselves up for the future! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 $800,000 at 4.5% is affordable but there can't be much wriggle room.History repeats and I remember 18% interest rates not so long ago. Just imagine trying to finance a 1m mortgage at 18%, thats 180k per year just to keep from going backwards! I'll even vote for Keating again if thats what it takes. Comparatively speaking Aus still has a bit of wriggle room with interest rates. They can be cut a bit lower. That's better than the UK, America, Canada and most of Europe, who have rates so low they can't be cut any more. If their economy is not improving now they are really in the crap. Europe has the added worry that Greece is not able to pay back it's debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Try another, China's national debt is also out of control. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101854344 The IMF then? Where does the money come from though? I guess you can do like America and just print more and more? Here's a snippet of info from a couple of years back, so it's probably worse now. Which Foreign governments own the most U.S. debt? Answer: Here is the Top 10 (as of Aug/2012) 1. China, Mainland, $1153.6 billion dollars 2. Japan, $1121.5 billion dollars 3. Oil Exporters*, $263.0 billion dollars 4. Carib Bnkng Ctrs**, $256.9 billion dollars 5. Brazil, $253.9 billion dollars 6. All Other, $226.8 billion dollars 7. Switzerland, $202.2 billion dollars 8. Taiwan, $198.0 billion dollars 9. United Kingdom, $153.6 billion dollars 10. Russia, $153.3 billion dollars *Includes oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iran **includes countries such as Bermuda and the Cayman Islands Of the $5.1 trillion dollars of US debt that is owned by foreign governments, China and Japan own nearly half, as evidenced by this chart: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfndirt Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I thought his evaluation was pretty accurate. There is no way I would be willing to spend 65-70% of a combined family income on a mortgage for the first year of a loan, especially since you can`t lock in the rates for the life of the loan ( as you can in the US). If the interest goes up, what percentage would it be then? 75 - 80 %. Doesn`t make any sense to buy at this point. Hey Maruska, so you made it over to Oz... Good on ya. I really do hope you enjoy it here although I fear we may start to see more posts like this from you? I did try and convey the situation here in no un-certain terms to you a while back. Yes, the place looks nice (although I disagree for the most part regards Sydney) but, unfortunately that's it for the time being. How have you found (when compared to TX); - Traffic (Ok, more of it in Houston but more roads so I would say even on that) - Cost of car rego ($1000 here, $45 there) - Cost of petrol ($5 gallon here, $2 there) - Rent ($500 week here, $1200 month there) - Eating out (not even worth typing it out) - Drinks ($10 pint here, anywhere from $2.50 there) - Family stuff to do (not got one myself but basically Sydney has a beach....) I think one of the things that would be interesting for you to provide us updates on is how you feel regards the concept that, at no point, can you live in a house as nice as those in the middle income bracket areas of Texas. May sounds an odd observation but I really am interested as I have a hypothesis that this fact is contributing to hell of alot of the tension and aggressiveness in Aussie society. i.e. "it doesn't matter how hard I work, I will NEVER be in position to live in a nice house in a nice suburb" ..... Yes, we are off again in 2x weeks. Looking forward to being back in a (relatively) normal economy where me and the Mrs can once again go for a cheap drink, have a tex mex with FREE chips and dip etc etc etc etc etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Although Texas does have about 1200 murders per year and executes more prisoners than any other state in the US. Which is safer ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Hey Maruska, so you made it over to Oz... Good on ya. I really do hope you enjoy it here although I fear we may start to see more posts like this from you? I did try and convey the situation here in no un-certain terms to you a while back. Yes, the place looks nice (although I disagree for the most part regards Sydney) but, unfortunately that's it for the time being. How have you found (when compared to TX); - Traffic (Ok, more of it in Houston but more roads so I would say even on that) - Cost of car rego ($1000 here, $45 there) - Cost of petrol ($5 gallon here, $2 there) - Rent ($500 week here, $1200 month there) - Eating out (not even worth typing it out) - Drinks ($10 pint here, anywhere from $2.50 there) - Family stuff to do (not got one myself but basically Sydney has a beach....) I think one of the things that would be interesting for you to provide us updates on is how you feel regards the concept that, at no point, can you live in a house as nice as those in the middle income bracket areas of Texas. May sounds an odd observation but I really am interested as I have a hypothesis that this fact is contributing to hell of alot of the tension and aggressiveness in Aussie society. i.e. "it doesn't matter how hard I work, I will NEVER be in position to live in a nice house in a nice suburb" ..... Yes, we are off again in 2x weeks. Looking forward to being back in a (relatively) normal economy where me and the Mrs can once again go for a cheap drink, have a tex mex with FREE chips and dip etc etc etc etc etc... There's a reason for all that and the reason is the US is in the crapper financially and it's only a matter of time till more people going broke, repossessions, people out on the streets. I thnk everyone has seen documentaries of houses stood empty after people just walk away from them. Here are a few facts. In 2010, corporate giant GE made $14.2 billion profit but paid no taxes. If GE, B of A, Wells Fargo and other corporations and banks paid their fair share, there would be no federal, state or county deficits/shortfalls. Instead, the government would have a surplus like they used to– roads, dams, hospitals and schools would not be in disrepair or overcrowded because the government would have plenty of money for all these things as they once did and would not be looking for ways to cut social security or other social programs. You and I, however, CANNOT compete with the money corporations spend to buy off congress, (i.e. our politicians) and voting only replaces one corrupt party with the other corrupt party. Fact: These tax-breaks have occured under Democrat and Republican administrations! Both are corrupt! Fact: The U.S. was the largest creditor in the world. Now the debt is in the trillions of dollars. Trillions of dollars transferred from the worlds richest & most powerful country. This is a form of destructive economic management at a level of graft & corruption that has NO parallel. There’s nothing comparable to that in history. Elections do us no good. Corruption has entered every institution. Fact: As things stand now, with federal taxes, state taxes, county tax, sales tax, property taxes, car tax, gas tax, phone taxes, etc., the governmnent takes 4 months of our wages every year in taxes. For that kind of money we should have the best schools on the planet, right? But every year 30 to 50% of our kids get LEFT BEHIND. Let me repeat, taxes take 4 months of your wages away from you every year. That’s true under Republican or Democrats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfndirt Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Hya Paul, Yeah - interesting numbers.... Still a ripper place to hang out for a while :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfndirt Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Although Texas does have about 1200 murders per year and executes more prisoners than any other state in the US.Which is safer ? Very true.... And now they have just made it legal to open carry as well. Anyone would think they actually wanted to revert back to the wild west.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Hya Paul, Yeah - interesting numbers.... Still a ripper place to hang out for a while :-) I would love to get over there on holiday one day. Maybe not TX but LA? My son has been a few times. He went to a music concert in Miami last year which has just been on again. He told me he live streamed it last weekend. He's been to LA and New York too. He really liked New York. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Comparatively speaking Aus still has a bit of wriggle room with interest rates. They can be cut a bit lower. That's better than the UK, America, Canada and most of Europe, who have rates so low they can't be cut any more. If their economy is not improving now they are really in the crap. Europe has the added worry that Greece is not able to pay back it's debt. We are still coming off the boil from the biggest boom in our modern history. Done very badly out of it all things considered so we are hardly in a position to consider ourselves in any sense superior to others. We blew it largely to be left with a housing bubble, over priced economy and little idea outside of services and housing and importation of people of how to keep recession at bay. Besides lowering standards of living and rates of pay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 All of these countries owing all this money. Seems almost everything and everyone is in debt. Who is lending this money? Cheap credit from financial institutions to facilitate speculation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Doesn't matter it will encourage people to borrow and support house prices. Exactly the sort of speculation we don't want. I care not if your house loses 50% in value when the bubble is picked. I do for the wider economy and the financial system in general. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 (edited) Perth isn't shrinking though. People are still coming here at a pretty fast rate. We went past 2,000,000 yesterday. I watched a program on ABC last night about how Aus. got through the GFC without a hickup when every other developed nation suffered. TBH the program was full of politicians blowing their own trumpet and taking the credit and not one person siad the obvious. It was the price of Iron Ore that got us through it. Nothing could be more simple. The period of growth measured was from July 13 to June 14. Population has indeed turned in the sense of immigration and short stay visas. Rental properties have increased dramatically from the height of the boom days. WA suffered a loss of around 128 people moving East last financial year than moving in the other direction. Greater numbers are anticipated to weigh anchor over the coming few years to either go East or to more abroad. Of course there is political interest to claim on going population gain in order to win better deals from Canberra etc. Edited April 1, 2015 by flag of convenience Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 The period of growth measured was from July 13 to June 14. Population has indeed turned in the sense of immigration and short stay visas. Rental properties have increased dramatically from the height of the boom days. WA suffered a loss of around 128 people moving East last financial year than moving in the other direction. Greater numbers are anticipated to weigh anchor over the coming few years to either go East or to more abroad. Of course there is political interest to claim on going population gain in order to win better deals from Canberra etc. I hope you're right flag. I much preferred Perth when it was less populated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Exactly the sort of speculation we don't want. I care not if your house loses 50% in value when the bubble is picked. I do for the wider economy and the financial system in general. I care of course as will millions of home owners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I hope you're right flag. I much preferred Perth when it was less populated. Of course numbers will rise. Natural growth is very strong. Immigration numbers in decline. I much preferred Perth when it was affordable and fair prices. We needed an increase from outside, bringing different ideas and shaking up the mix a bit. Just not the excessive numbers that were ill catered for and the absolute greed that went with that. Better now outside of the cost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 I care of course as will millions of home owners. Pure speculation. Win and lose. Many on the side lines such as under 30's will be cheering to have their birth right restored. I personally hope greed is punished. I don't mind taking a hit. Still be ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 Pure speculation. Win and lose. Many on the side lines such as under 30's will be cheering to have their birth right restored. I personally hope greed is punished. I don't mind taking a hit. Still be ahead. What about all the under 30's who have bought in the last 2 years ? If the market corrects they will end up with negative equity and potentially have homes repossessed and go bankrupt. I bet you wouldn't wish that to happen if you had bought your house in the last year. Very easy to wish misfortune on all the people who have bought recently though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 What about all the under 30's who have bought in the last 2 years ?If the market corrects they will end up with negative equity and potentially have homes repossessed and go bankrupt. I bet you wouldn't wish that to happen if you had bought your house in the last year. Very easy to wish misfortune on all the people who have bought recently though. Most are speculators in the case of Sydney. The warnings have long been out. The large percentage of first homebuyers have little chance in Sydney. Misfortune for speculators doesn't bother me. The greed does though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shellybingobingo Posted April 1, 2015 Share Posted April 1, 2015 What about all the under 30's who have bought in the last 2 years ?If the market corrects they will end up with negative equity and potentially have homes repossessed and go bankrupt. I bet you wouldn't wish that to happen if you had bought your house in the last year. Very easy to wish misfortune on all the people who have bought recently though. I wouldnt wish misfortune on anyone ...my neigbour had her house repossessed in England , I didn't like her but I would never have wished that on her . Why would you ! That's just evil whether they bought yrs ago or now so what if they bought now ...yes they may have been warned but u still wouldn't wish that that's harsh ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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