Brexit and northern Ireland will be a pain!

[amibovered]

Quote

What about Gibraltar? Won't that be the same as Northern Ireland?

In what way? Gibraltar already has a hard border with Spain.

Edited April 5, 2017 by amibovered

[newjez]

4 hours ago, aussiederek said:

How would a hard border look like a step towards unification with the Republic of Ireland? I would have thought quite the opposite.

A hard border between NI and the UK.

[aussiederek]

 

A hard border between NI and the UK.

This comment explains nothing!

[aussiederek]

 

In what way? Gibraltar already has a hard border with Spain.

More than 4,000 Spanish workers cross the border every day to work in Gibraltar!

https://www.elestrechodigital.com/en/breaking-news/the-spanish-workers-in-gibraltar-are-supported-by-the-junta/

[amibovered]

1 hour ago, aussiederek said:

More than 4,000 Spanish workers cross the border every day to work in Gibraltar!

https://www.elestrechodigital.com/en/breaking-news/the-spanish-workers-in-gibraltar-are-supported-by-the-junta/

They have to clear customs and immigration in both directions, as do everybody else, I was one of them for a number of years.

[newjez]

3 hours ago, aussiederek said:

This comment explains nothing!

Of course it does. Go back and read the thread.

[Collie]

On the re-unification with the Rep of Ireland, there is a big assumption being made that the people down south would want the North.

The north costs an absolute fortune each year - I think the deficit is about 10bGBP per annum.  For re-unifaction there would have to be some kind of subsidy paid for 30-50 years.  The ROI couldn't afford to take it as is.

If they wanted to, it would be nigh on immpossible to completely close a 500 mile border.  It leaked like a sieve before the peace process with the provos of both sides running smuggling rackets to beat the band.

The only practical solution is a hard border between the island of Ireland and GB and the unionists will just have to wear it.

The Spainish Gibralter border is about 500m (across the runway:) ) alhough I did see something than Spain have a veto on a trade deal regarding Gibralter.  BTW Gibralter voted 96% or something to remain.

 

[n1ck]

On 4/12/2017 at 10:40 PM, aussiederek said:

This comment explains nothing!

 

On 4/6/2017 at 3:19 AM, newjez said:

A hard border between NI and the UK.

Newjez.. what you have said makes no sense. I suggest you go and look at a map.

Speaking as someone from NI the idea of "giving NI back to Ireland" is both delusional and stupid.

[newjez]

1 hour ago, n1ck said:

 

Newjez.. what you have said makes no sense. I suggest you go and look at a map.

Speaking as someone from NI the idea of "giving NI back to Ireland" is both delusional and stupid.

NI and Brexit doesn't really make much sense. But I'm sure they will cobble something together.

[Collie]

51 minutes ago, newjez said:

NI and Brexit doesn't really make much sense. But I'm sure they will cobble something together.

Well, IMO - Brexit makes no sense & NI makes no sense either, never has 

There is a natural border between the Islands of Ireland and Britain called the Irish sea.  Interesting that NI voted to remain in the EU and many staunch unionist politicians were telling their constituents to get Irish passports prior to and post the Brexit vote.  People in NI are entitled to both Irish and British citizenship under the Good Friday agreement.

There is a growing young constituency in Northern Ireland who don't consider themselves Irish or British but Northern Irish - call them the Rory McIlroy generation.  It will be interesting to see what happens with Scotland.  If the SNP maintain or increase their mandate in the upcoming election, surely that is a mandate for another independence referendum prior to March 2019.  Could we see an independent Scotland & NI (2 separate states) remaining as members of the EU, out of the union but maybe still in the Commonwealth?

 

[newjez]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/27/eu-to-debate-recognising-united-ireland-to-allow-swift-return-for-north

[aussiederek]

The province of Ulster has historically been different to the rest of the Island of Ireland, mainly because of its proximity to Scotland (just 13 miles at the closest point). North East Ulster and Argyle in Scotland formed the ancient Kingdom of Dalraida. They were basically the same people. In fact the Glens of Antrim was isolated from the rest of the island until the construction of the famous coast road designed by a New Zealander in the mid 1800s. Before that the Glens and East Antrim peoples traded and communicated with their brethren across the North Channel.

Then the first main plantation took place in 1610, which added to the uniqueness of Ulster. The notion of present day Northern Ireland being detached from the rest of the British Isles to become part of a separate Irish Republic is a pipe dream. The people of Northern Ireland simply don't want it, and that includes many Catholics. The present Irish Republic is a relatively new entity, first gaining Free State status in 1921 later to become the Republic of Ireland. Indeed. After 1921 the pro and anti treaty sides couldn't agree and fought a vicious civil war between themselves. In the context of Brexit it would make far more sense for the present Republic of Ireland to return to the fold and become part of the British Isles once again. If one thinks this does not make sense then I would ask, why are so many Irish people living in England? Liverpool is practically another Irish town!! Sturgeon's desire for an independent Scotland has also been rejected by the Scottish people and I am confident there will be no breakup of the UK. But the EU itself might, France is coming very close!

I am old enough to remember what it was like before entry to the so-called Common Market and the UK functioned much better, making its own laws and trading freely with the Commonwealth and rest of the world. It can do it again! Also, if every part of the British Isles were united that would solve the Brexit dilemma.    

[robfromdublin]

The British Isles is the group of islands.  The Republic is part of the British Isles.  Always has been and will be.  You perhaps mean the United Kingdom?

I think you are mistaken that a united Ireland is a pipe dream.  The RoI doesn't want it either but I think things could change over the coming decades as cultural barriers are broken down and people who lived through the Troubles pass away.  It's certainly less of a pipe dream than the Republic giving up her hard-won sovereignty, which they certainly would not do just to help out another country who's government insists on shooting itself in the foot, as much as the RoI and GB have many strong ties.  I think the most likely outcome is that NI will stay where it is and take its medicine over Brexit.

The EU may well be open to letting NI into the EU if it merged with RoI, but that would never happen in the timeframe of Brexit so it's a moot point

[Collie]

Hey Aussiederek,

I accept your point that there isn't a majority in NI who want re-unifaction with the south, YET.  It is only a matter of time and demographics.

It would be interesting to see the view in light of Brexit.  NI voted to remain by a significant margin(56:44).  Whilst it is clear you are a unionist and have been away for many years, you may not be aware many people (mostly under 40) don't give a toss about the union (UK or ROI).  They want to leave the sensless battles to the bigoted old men (on both sides) and are waiting for them to die out.

By the way, many people down south may be reluctant to take the North for economic reasons - it's a basket case.  And most, English, Welsh and Scottish people I know aren't arsed about whether NI is part of the UK or not.  They don't really consider NI people British (as much as that may offend you)

As Rob says, it took 800 years of blood to gain independence from the UK and as you say, the modern state is <100 years old, there is no desire for the south to become part of the UK.  The ROI is very pro Europe and whilst there are significant cultural and trade links with the UK, if it was a choice between UK and EU, it would be 90%+ for EU.

Yes - many Irish people live in the UK and moved there for mainly economic necessity in the 50's and 80's etc  Many British people (English, Scottish, Welsh) chose to now live in Ireland, particularly down in West Cork etc.  I think it is about 2.5% of the population of the ROI.

The British Isles is a geographical term not a political one. The British Isles are a group of islands off the north-western coast of continental Europe that consist of the islands of Great Britain, Ireland and over six thousand smaller isles.

BTW - even the Unionist politicans have told their constituents to get Irish Passports (EU) before Brexit finalises and many UK citizens of Irish descent are doing likewise.

I wouldn't be so sure about the Scots either., Only needs is 5% to change their minds for a majority and every council area in Scotland voted Remain (overall 62:38) plus more young people voted for independence than old so if they have a 2nd referendum 4 more years of young people will be eligible to vote and 4 years of old people will have died.

[aussiederek]

2 hours ago, robfromdublin said:

The British Isles is the group of islands.  The Republic is part of the British Isles.  Always has been and will be.  You perhaps mean the United Kingdom?

I think you are mistaken that a united Ireland is a pipe dream.  The RoI doesn't want it either but I think things could change over the coming decades as cultural barriers are broken down and people who lived through the Troubles pass away.  It's certainly less of a pipe dream than the Republic giving up her hard-won sovereignty, which they certainly would not do just to help out another country who's government insists on shooting itself in the foot, as much as the RoI and GB have many strong ties.  I think the most likely outcome is that NI will stay where it is and take its medicine over Brexit.

The EU may well be open to letting NI into the EU if it merged with RoI, but that would never happen in the timeframe of Brexit so it's a moot point

Hello Rob, I worded it badly but actually did mean everybody in the British Isles becoming a united entity, rather than what the British Isles is now. That could be some kind of federal arrangement with everybody retaining their own identity. We're all so close now anyway that it makes most sense to me! 

The hard-won sovereignty of the Republic that you mention looks back to a previous age, but nevertheless deserves respect. However, this is the 21st century and things are changing before our eyes at an incredible rate. I am one of those you refer to who lived through the "troubles", helping to maintain electricity supplies, an essential service, that required traveling throughout the length and breadth of the province, often in dangerous situations in remote country areas as well as certain areas of Belfast and Derry. I know first hand the hard-won struggle Northern Ireland had against terrorists, when all we wanted was to live a peaceful life.

I do believe the old-style notion of a united Ireland is a non-starter. However, a unity could come about if politicians would start to think outside the box. A big ask I know!

I don't believe anyone who wants to leave the EU is shooting themselves in the foot. That institution is a failed experiment and is falling apart at the seems. The ROI may have seemed to benefit from membership but in reality the money they got back was really the money they paid in to be a member! Same with the UK. I think the modern ROI would do far better out of it too and free to trade with the rest of the world unhindered. Look at what is happening in France and then watch Germany as she gains more and more control over European affairs. I think we've been here before!!!!

Interesting times we live in, that's for sure. However, we have other matters of interest to us here in Australia these days. 

[ScottieGirl]

On Tuesday, April 04, 2017 at 0:38 AM, robfromdublin said:

You could have written exactly that in relation to Brexit.  Nobody thought the UK would shoot themselves in the foot but here we are, led by those sensationalist politicians Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson, and their sensationalist Brexit Bus. Nobody thought that was a viable proposition either. Scotland also has a low density population, an educated workforce and access to considerable renewable energy sources and oil/gas. They have a lot going for them and to dismiss an independence campaign would make the same mistake the 'remainers' did. 

The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. Not withstanding the difficulties of leaving the EU it should be entirely viable to exist outside it. Whether or not it does better or worse remains to be seen but it is certainly viable. 

[aussiederek]

2 hours ago, Collie said:

Hey Aussiederek,

I accept your point that there isn't a majority in NI who want re-unifaction with the south, YET.  It is only a matter of time and demographics.

It would be interesting to see the view in light of Brexit.  NI voted to remain by a significant margin(56:44).  Whilst it is clear you are a unionist and have been away for many years, you may not be aware many people (mostly under 40) don't give a toss about the union (UK or ROI).  They want to leave the sensless battles to the bigoted old men (on both sides) and are waiting for them to die out.

By the way, many people down south may be reluctant to take the North for economic reasons - it's a basket case.  And most, English, Welsh and Scottish people I know aren't arsed about whether NI is part of the UK or not.  They don't really consider NI people British (as much as that may offend you)

As Rob says, it took 800 years of blood to gain independence from the UK and as you say, the modern state is <100 years old, there is no desire for the south to become part of the UK.  The ROI is very pro Europe and whilst there are significant cultural and trade links with the UK, if it was a choice between UK and EU, it would be 90%+ for EU.

Yes - many Irish people live in the UK and moved there for mainly economic necessity in the 50's and 80's etc  Many British people (English, Scottish, Welsh) chose to now live in Ireland, particularly down in West Cork etc.  I think it is about 2.5% of the population of the ROI.

The British Isles is a geographical term not a political one. The British Isles are a group of islands off the north-western coast of continental Europe that consist of the islands of Great Britain, Ireland and over six thousand smaller isles.

BTW - even the Unionist politicans have told their constituents to get Irish Passports (EU) before Brexit finalises and many UK citizens of Irish descent are doing likewise.

I wouldn't be so sure about the Scots either., Only needs is 5% to change their minds for a majority and every council area in Scotland voted Remain (overall 62:38) plus more young people voted for independence than old so if they have a 2nd referendum 4 more years of young people will be eligible to vote and 4 years of old people will have died.

Hi Collie, always good to exchange views.

I don't see that Irish unity is only a matter of time and demographics at all. This is the 21st century and old style thinking like that doesn't hold up any longer. The world we live in is changing at an incredible rate and we can't be sure of what tomorrow will bring politically. By the way, I'm one of those old men you are waiting to die out, but trust I am not a bigot as you seem to imply. I could take offense but won't because I think you are probably a young man. Yes, I have been away a long time but have kept in close touch with affairs and have visited 'home' often, particularly in recent years. So I am well aware of what is going on and the thinking of people of the different generations. I have to say that the politicians in the local assembly (that was and may or may not be again) frustrate me most of all!!

I have replied to Rob so won't repeat myself here. But I would draw your attention to how the Brexit vote played out in Northern Ireland. Counties Antrim and Down in fact voted to leave the EU, so it was far from an overall NI vote to remain.

Hey mate, please don't bring up 800 years of Irish struggle to gain independence, and it wasn't from the UK throughout those 800 years as such an entity didn't exist. This is the 21st century and that kind of thinking belongs to history. Much wrong was done, not just in Ireland by the English, but by other colonial powers all over the world. Not least by the Australian authorities towards the Aboriginal people. Human history is ugly and it is senseless to keep harping back. Nevertheless, we should learn from history and we owe it to those who sacrificed for just causes to remember them with respect. I do not believe that included terrorists of any side in our so-called NI troubles. 

Yes, I do believe in the union of Northern Ireland with the rest of the present UK so I suppose you would call me a unionist. However, we have much more of relevance to us all here in Australia.

[newjez]

1 hour ago, ScottieGirl said:

The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. Not withstanding the difficulties of leaving the EU it should be entirely viable to exist outside it. Whether or not it does better or worse remains to be seen but it is certainly viable. 

Yes - but the USA was the world's largest economy when it hit the GFC - and it hurt - lots. 

Sometimes size doesn't matter.

[ScottieGirl]

1 hour ago, newjez said:

Yes - but the USA was the world's largest economy when it hit the GFC - and it hurt - lots. 

Sometimes size doesn't matter.

It does when it comes to economic viability.  Sure the GFC hurt many people but the US survived.  

Size doesn't help if you are a rabbit though - the prize for the week from hell has to go to the poor sods who work in United Airlines PR dept. Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse....

[Slean Wolfhead]

9 hours ago, ScottieGirl said:

The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. Not withstanding the difficulties of leaving the EU it should be entirely viable to exist outside it. Whether or not it does better or worse remains to be seen but it is certainly viable. 

You would certainly hope it does better, as that is the whole point of the exercise.

However the "5th largest economy" notion is trotted out continuously without context.  We also have people living on the streets, dropping home ownership, shortage of housing, poor infrastructure investment outside London and a reduction in useful things that a lot of people can do in areas that voted Brexit, pretty much everywhere in England outside London.  

Where the money goes from the 5th largest economy is another matter, but we have a very strong financial sector that has benefitted hugely from being part of Europe and has seen a massive amount of capital touch British shores and then disappear which we have taken a cut of.  The re-shaping of the UK economy and the increased competition for work that was guaranteed to us under EU rules is a major challenge, because a lot of the structure that we require as a truly independent nation standing alone has been abandoned and forgotten over the last 40 years.  That was the benefit of sharing the workload and benefits rather than having to duplicate systems and pay for it all ourselves.  To earn enough to do this independently whilst making our own workforce more productive, flexible and efficient is asking for a big cultural mindset change from a standing start.

I think it can be done, but a lot of the current generation will be long dead and buried before the real results can be measured.

[newjez]

6 hours ago, Slean Wolfhead said:

You would certainly hope it does better, as that is the whole point of the exercise.

However the "5th largest economy" notion is trotted out continuously without context.  We also have people living on the streets, dropping home ownership, shortage of housing, poor infrastructure investment outside London and a reduction in useful things that a lot of people can do in areas that voted Brexit, pretty much everywhere in England outside London.  

Where the money goes from the 5th largest economy is another matter, but we have a very strong financial sector that has benefitted hugely from being part of Europe and has seen a massive amount of capital touch British shores and then disappear which we have taken a cut of.  The re-shaping of the UK economy and the increased competition for work that was guaranteed to us under EU rules is a major challenge, because a lot of the structure that we require as a truly independent nation standing alone has been abandoned and forgotten over the last 40 years.  That was the benefit of sharing the workload and benefits rather than having to duplicate systems and pay for it all ourselves.  To earn enough to do this independently whilst making our own workforce more productive, flexible and efficient is asking for a big cultural mindset change from a standing start.

I think it can be done, but a lot of the current generation will be long dead and buried before the real results can be measured.

Was that the whole point of the exercise? I thought it was an expression of frustrated rage.

Although I agree with most of what you say. It is an opportunity, but there is also a large degree of risk, and no apparent plan or method. There are plans out there. There was even a competition to submit plans. But it doesn't look like any of these are being followed.

I also agree that we may never know if it was a good idea. No one seems to be able to quantify whether being in through the last 40 years was a good idea.

Edited April 29, 2017 by newjez

[Slean Wolfhead]

4 hours ago, newjez said:

Was that the whole point of the exercise? I thought it was an expression of frustrated rage.  Although I agree with most of what you say. It is an opportunity, but there is also a large degree of risk, and no apparent plan or method. There are plans out there. There was even a competition to submit plans. But it doesn't look like any of these are being followed.I also agree that we may never know if it was a good idea. No one seems to be able to quantify whether being in through the last 40 years was a good idea.

There has to be a point to all this. I don't think people really understand what they've done yet, or at least, know whether they have the capability to deal with what comes next.  There is a lot of bluster and blind optimism from people who can offer little.  There is hope though.

This is an interesting piece, it was written in 1979 about Britain, it's attitude, and it's role.

http://www.economist.com/node/13315108

Quote

There is certainly an acute problem ahead over our net budgetary contribution to the community. We have been hardly done by here. We are not going to find an easy solution whatever we do. So far as money is concerned the community is imbued with a spirit of grasp and take. But there is only one way to go about it if we are to hope to get our way, and that is to have a heart-to-heart talk with the leaders of the other eight countries on the basis that we are unreserved and constant members interested in the fortunes of the community as a whole. To issue a warning of withdrawal if we do not get our way would not help our community partners believe that we would have more to lose than they by our withdrawal.

Secondly, viewed from abroad, it looks as though the facts of our present circumstances are not universally recognised in Britain. The British people do not give the impression that they are fully aware of how far Britain's economy has fallen behind that of our European neighbours or of the consequences of this upon living standards. Naturally people are conscious that they are better off now than 25 years ago but they may not know to what extent others in Europe have done much better or of the effects needed to reverse the trend. As Isaac Newton wrote, the important thing is “to learn not to teach”. It may be our turn to learn from others, having been teachers for so long.

In this fact-facing exercise the authorities may have a role to play so as to ensure that the public do not remain in ignorance of something that is a matter of national concern. It is impossible for anyone of my generation to forget how little the British government of the 1930s did to enlighten the British people about the rise of Nazi Germany. The needs today are certainly of a different kind but there does seem to be a responsibility upon government to prevent people being unaware of something that will certainly one day affect their future. There is also a task of explaining the community to the British public rather than making it the scapegoat for our ills.

Finally, and as a corollary to this process of enlightenment, there would appear to be a need at the present time to do something to stimulate a sense of national purpose, of something akin to what has inspired the French and Germans over the past 25 years. No doubt the sort of patriotic language and flag waving of former times is inappropriate for us today. The revival of Germany has not owed anything to that kind of stimulus. But nevertheless the Germans have felt motivated by the dire need to rise from the ashes in 1945, and they have had to recover from their past politically too. Hence the dogged devotion to democracy that the Germans have shown since the war and the obligation that every one of them feels to make a contribution to economic, as well as political, recovery. Reaching out from their traditional Bismarckian policy of trying to balance east and west, the Germans have now identified their cause with commitment to the west.

The French on the other hand have found their national revival in a more traditional appeal to patriotism. They started at the bottom of the pit but it has not only been de Gaulle who has played on the need to overcome the country's sense of defeat and national humiliation. Giscard is no less ready to play on chauvinistic chords. In a speech that he made recently that lasted only eight minutes he used the word “France” over 23 times and the word “win” seven times. Yet, to those who have known the French people in earlier days, it is impossible to believe that they are necessarily readier to make sacrifices or to respond to patriotic appeals than their British counterparts.

Conclusion

These then are the words with which I would like to end my official career, and if it is said that they go beyond the limits of an ambassador's normal responsibilities I would say that the fulfilment of these responsibilities is not possible in western Europe in the present uncertain state of our economy and of our European policy.

A representative abroad has a duty to draw the attention of the authorities at home to the realities of how we look, just as he has an obligation to try to persuade the government and people of the country to which he is accredited that present difficulties must be kept in perspective. The tailored reporting from Berlin in the late 1930s and the encouragement it gave to the policy of appeasement is a study in scarlet for every postwar diplomat. Viewed from the continent our standing at the present time is low. But this is not for the first time in our history, and we can recover if the facts are known and faced and if the British people can be fired with a sense of national will such as others have found these past years. For the benefit of ourselves and of Europe let us then show the adaptability that has been the hallmark of our history—and do so now so that the warnings of this despatch may before long sound no more ominous than the recorded alarms of a wartime siren.

 

[Collie]

Hi  Aussiederek,

i seem to have caused you some offence in my earlier comments, that was not my intent so I apologise for any offence caused.  I was not referring to you when I talked about waiting for old men/bigots to die (on both sides).  I don't know you to make that call.  I was referring to the blinded dissidents and ex paras of both sides who believe in debate by the bomb and not the ballot box.  I know my view so always happy to hear another and have a civilised debate. 

Unfortunately, I'm not as young as I'd like to be and do remember the troubles, the checkpoints and the atrocities.  I had close friends go to Uni in Jordanstown (pre ceasefire) who I visited often and I remember being told where we could and couldn't go.  I also have English friends who served in the armed forces in NI during the troubles.  Isn't it fantastic that there is a whole generation in NI who have only know peace-time up there? (although I know it is still far from perfect with punishment beatings etc still occuring)

Anyway to the debate at hand.  Your suggestion is some kind of a federation of the British Isles with separate state govts in ROI, NI, Scotland, Wales and England (a United States of the British Isles) if I have not taken you up wrong, perhaps you could expand on the concept?  Isn't this just a smaller version of the EU albeit an Anglo Saxon/Celtic one?

Why would the ROI leave a market of c.510m people (c.440m post Brexit) for a market of 70m?  It doesn't make economic sense.

BTW - as a ROI citizen - I would have to think long and hard about whether I would vote for reunification with the North.  My reservations are purely economic, no bigotry here (I am an aethist and believe in a secular state with clear division of church and state - something the ROI is unfortunately still a long way from)

 

To the debate at large (not just Aussiederek),

Yes the UK is the world's 5th biggest economy FOR NOW.  Btw what does that make the EU economy in terms of size.  France are expected to displace the UK in the near future.

The way the GBP has dropped already and the when the economic impacts of Brexit flow through, the UK will be on a snake rather than a ladder.  The Q1 2017 numbers out of the Uk weren't great with the impact of inflation (from the lower GBP) negatively impacting demand in the economy.  The big FS institutions in London are still in planning mode for EU based offices.  By 2019/20, there will be a significant shift of these highpaying jobs (& taxes) to the EU.  The ? you have to ask is will the standard of living in the UK higher or lower in 20 years post Brexit than if the Uk stayed in the EU?

Back to NI, it looks like they will be able to have their cake and it.  It looks like there will be a provision enabling NI automatic EU membership if they decide on a united Ireland in accordance with the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement (similar to the integration of East Germany).

Another point that seems to be missed in this whole debate is the main purpose of the EU.  It was predominantly about preventing conflict on the continent following 2 horrific world wars.  By have free trade and making countries more economicly reliant on each other, it was thought that countries would be less likely to go to war again.  In this aim it has largely succeeeded with relative peace in Europe for 70+ years

Anyway a few issues there for thought.

Edited April 29, 2017 by Collie

[VERYSTORMY]

7 hours ago, Collie said:

Hi  Aussiederek,

i seem to have caused you some offence in my earlier comments, that was not my intent so I apologise for any offence caused.  I was not referring to you when I talked about waiting for old men/bigots to die (on both sides).  I don't know you to make that call.  I was referring to the blinded dissidents and ex paras of both sides who believe in debate by the bomb and not the ballot box.  I know my view so always happy to hear another and have a civilised debate. 

Unfortunately, I'm not as young as I'd like to be and do remember the troubles, the checkpoints and the atrocities.  I had close friends go to Uni in Jordanstown (pre ceasefire) who I visited often and I remember being told where we could and couldn't go.  I also have English friends who served in the armed forces in NI during the troubles.  Isn't it fantastic that there is a whole generation in NI who have only know peace-time up there? (although I know it is still far from perfect with punishment beatings etc still occuring)

Anyway to the debate at hand.  Your suggestion is some kind of a federation of the British Isles with separate state govts in ROI, NI, Scotland, Wales and England (a United States of the British Isles) if I have not taken you up wrong, perhaps you could expand on the concept?  Isn't this just a smaller version of the EU albeit an Anglo Saxon/Celtic one?

Why would the ROI leave a market of c.510m people (c.440m post Brexit) for a market of 70m?  It doesn't make economic sense.

BTW - as a ROI citizen - I would have to think long and hard about whether I would vote for reunification with the North.  My reservations are purely economic, no bigotry here (I am an aethist and believe in a secular state with clear division of church and state - something the ROI is unfortunately still a long way from)

 

To the debate at large (not just Aussiederek),

Yes the UK is the world's 5th biggest economy FOR NOW.  Btw what does that make the EU economy in terms of size.  France are expected to displace the UK in the near future.

The way the GBP has dropped already and the when the economic impacts of Brexit flow through, the UK will be on a snake rather than a ladder.  The Q1 2017 numbers out of the Uk weren't great with the impact of inflation (from the lower GBP) negatively impacting demand in the economy.  The big FS institutions in London are still in planning mode for EU based offices.  By 2019/20, there will be a significant shift of these highpaying jobs (& taxes) to the EU.  The ? you have to ask is will the standard of living in the UK higher or lower in 20 years post Brexit than if the Uk stayed in the EU?

Back to NI, it looks like they will be able to have their cake and it.  It looks like there will be a provision enabling NI automatic EU membership if they decide on a united Ireland in accordance with the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement (similar to the integration of East Germany).

Another point that seems to be missed in this whole debate is the main purpose of the EU.  It was predominantly about preventing conflict on the continent following 2 horrific world wars.  By have free trade and making countries more economicly reliant on each other, it was thought that countries would be less likely to go to war again.  In this aim it has largely succeeeded with relative peace in Europe for 70+ years

Anyway a few issues there for thought.

On recent numbers - this week - French economy is worse than the UK. Inflation is below Germany, the so called beating heart of Europe. Have a look at unemployment - the entire system is failing. Unemployment is about twice  

The EU was not set up to maintain peace. Far from it. It was set up to act as a dominant power to other parts of the world. Look at the way it treats imports from the poorest countries such as Africa with massive tarrifs.  The only thing the EU has changed since 45 is the use of gas chambers against the poorest countries. Instead it likes to watch them slowly starve. I suppose to the sick that is more fun. 

[aussiederek]

18 hours ago, Collie said:

Hi  Aussiederek,

i seem to have caused you some offence in my earlier comments, that was not my intent so I apologise for any offence caused.  I was not referring to you when I talked about waiting for old men/bigots to die (on both sides).  I don't know you to make that call.  I was referring to the blinded dissidents and ex paras of both sides who believe in debate by the bomb and not the ballot box.  I know my view so always happy to hear another and have a civilised debate. 

Unfortunately, I'm not as young as I'd like to be and do remember the troubles, the checkpoints and the atrocities.  I had close friends go to Uni in Jordanstown (pre ceasefire) who I visited often and I remember being told where we could and couldn't go.  I also have English friends who served in the armed forces in NI during the troubles.  Isn't it fantastic that there is a whole generation in NI who have only know peace-time up there? (although I know it is still far from perfect with punishment beatings etc still occuring)

Anyway to the debate at hand.  Your suggestion is some kind of a federation of the British Isles with separate state govts in ROI, NI, Scotland, Wales and England (a United States of the British Isles) if I have not taken you up wrong, perhaps you could expand on the concept?  Isn't this just a smaller version of the EU albeit an Anglo Saxon/Celtic one?

Why would the ROI leave a market of c.510m people (c.440m post Brexit) for a market of 70m?  It doesn't make economic sense.

BTW - as a ROI citizen - I would have to think long and hard about whether I would vote for reunification with the North.  My reservations are purely economic, no bigotry here (I am an aethist and believe in a secular state with clear division of church and state - something the ROI is unfortunately still a long way from)

 

To the debate at large (not just Aussiederek),

Yes the UK is the world's 5th biggest economy FOR NOW.  Btw what does that make the EU economy in terms of size.  France are expected to displace the UK in the near future.

The way the GBP has dropped already and the when the economic impacts of Brexit flow through, the UK will be on a snake rather than a ladder.  The Q1 2017 numbers out of the Uk weren't great with the impact of inflation (from the lower GBP) negatively impacting demand in the economy.  The big FS institutions in London are still in planning mode for EU based offices.  By 2019/20, there will be a significant shift of these highpaying jobs (& taxes) to the EU.  The ? you have to ask is will the standard of living in the UK higher or lower in 20 years post Brexit than if the Uk stayed in the EU?

Back to NI, it looks like they will be able to have their cake and it.  It looks like there will be a provision enabling NI automatic EU membership if they decide on a united Ireland in accordance with the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement (similar to the integration of East Germany).

Another point that seems to be missed in this whole debate is the main purpose of the EU.  It was predominantly about preventing conflict on the continent following 2 horrific world wars.  By have free trade and making countries more economicly reliant on each other, it was thought that countries would be less likely to go to war again.  In this aim it has largely succeeeded with relative peace in Europe for 70+ years

Anyway a few issues there for thought.

Hi Collie,

No need to apologise, but I so appreciate and thank you for your sensitivity and of course accept your apology. I know you meant no offense and none taken. I think one needs to be rather thick skinned on this particular thread anyway, which can be quite robust at times, especially when reference is made to Northern Ireland!

Regarding Brexit generally, we will just have to agree to differ. But it is good to exchange views and consider what others have to say.