simmo Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Economist Rob Wood, said: “The recovery is snowballing. Business confidence is booming, strong growth is back, unemployment falling and inflation down.” Financial experts at researchers Capital Economics have forecast 3% growth this year and next. That is better than every other nation in the rich G7 group, with struggling France earmarked for just 0.5% growth this year and the US expected to lag with 2.5%. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/359966/UK-economy-set-to-boom-in-2014 my opinion: jolly good show!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srg73 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Confidence is the key. The economy is pulling around strongly, I work in the building trade for financial clients and there is definitely more money about however I strongly believe people will only start to feel better when the sun starts shining, March onwards. There is a huge amount of pent up demand however UK will become a country of haves and have nots as the state will continue to shrink as there is greater demand on services. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewRomford Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Have you looked at the total debt, everything that the UK owes. It is eye watering. The country can't boom, sure the ritch get richer. How much is it now for each new born child £30000 debt. Confidence is the key. The economy is pulling around strongly, I work in the building trade for financial clients and there is definitely more money about however I strongly believe people will only start to feel better when the sun starts shining, March onwards. There is a huge amount of pent up demand however UK will become a country of haves and have nots as the state will continue to shrink as there is greater demand on services. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Have you looked at the total debt, everything that the UK owes. It is eye watering. The country can't boom, sure the ritch get richer. How much is it now for each new born child £30000 debt. I'm afraid the rich getting richer is a common international theme these days. An interesting article came out of UK just the other day with findings by Open University,(I think it was) that stated couples are in part happier without having kids. I guess that debt you write off could perhaps be a small factor in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krystaltips Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Confidence is the key. The economy is pulling around strongly, I work in the building trade for financial clients and there is definitely more money about however I strongly believe people will only start to feel better when the sun starts shining, March onwards. There is a huge amount of pent up demand however UK will become a country of haves and have nots as the state will continue to shrink as there is greater demand on services. S Booming???...We are currently one of the most indebted countries in the western world with an approx total debt of around 5 times what our entire economy is worth. Add to that all the unfunded promises our government has made to date and our debt increases to around 900% of what our economy is worth! It doesn't matter how much demand there is within the construction sector currently, or how much sun is shining (unfortunately)...our economy is heading for financial collapse! We may not see it straight away, things may stagnate for years and appear stable but it will happen eventually.There is no way for us to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Booming???...We are currently one of the most indebted countries in the western world with an approx total debt of around 5 times what our entire economy is worth. Add to that all the unfunded promises our government has made to date and our debt increases to around 900% of what our economy is worth! It doesn't matter how much demand there is within the construction sector currently, or how much sun is shining (unfortunately)...our economy is heading for financial collapse! We may not see it straight away, things may stagnate for years and appear stable but it will happen eventually.There is no way for us to recover. Tend to agree. I've seen enough documentaries on the GFC to know that the people that caused it are still running the show over in the US. It changed nothing and they are just "kicking the can down the road" and hoping it doesn't come to the crunch in their time in power. They will be able to blame someone else for it then. I've heard terms like falling off the cliff, financial meltdown without ever understanding what would happen if the worst came to the worst. Apparently the GFC wasn't it. All I know is the sun will come up the following day and we would still be alive, living in the same house and we would just have to get on with it. I think we've already reached the point where everything seems normal and things are ticking along but behind it all is just more and more debt. The record number of car sales this year?? How does that happen when people are supposed to be struggling? More debt that's how. The companies and retail have to sell stuff to keep jobs going, economy ticking over but it's all smoke and mirrors based on debt and low interest rates. If they go up 1% a lot of people are going to be in the crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VERYSTORMY Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Firstly, government debt is not always as bada thing as people believe. It depends on the bond rate against inflation. When the bond rate is low and inflation low but above the rate it is no problem at all. For example, on a lot of the US debt, the bond rate is exceptionally low - a lot it is at 0.5%. So, with inflation at about 2.8, the US is actually making money on that debt. The UK is not in such a strong position, but still not in one that is anywhere near disastrous yet as long as measures are taken now to start cutting the debt. With regard to services and haves and have nots, I think that will in the short and medium term become worse. There is no doubt that services are going to be cut and much more massively than people imagine. It will take society a long time to adapt to it has it is used to very bloated state services. But adapt they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tingtongman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 dont matter if your money is making debt, you are still in a negative cash flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Firstly, government debt is not always as bada thing as people believe. It depends on the bond rate against inflation. When the bond rate is low and inflation low but above the rate it is no problem at all. For example, on a lot of the US debt, the bond rate is exceptionally low - a lot it is at 0.5%. So, with inflation at about 2.8, the US is actually making money on that debt. The UK is not in such a strong position, but still not in one that is anywhere near disastrous yet as long as measures are taken now to start cutting the debt. With regard to services and haves and have nots, I think that will in the short and medium term become worse. There is no doubt that services are going to be cut and much more massively than people imagine. It will take society a long time to adapt to it has it is used to very bloated state services. But adapt they will. You would have to explain to me how that can happen. Sounds like the hedge fund managers that were shorting stocks they knew were going to go bad, to make some money while everyone else suffered. Bit like betting that a company will go bust just so you can make some money on the bet. Not worry that people have lost their jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Some useful bedtime reading http://www.theguardian.com/money/us-money-blog/2013/mar/26/federal-budget-household-finances-fed http://rooseveltinstitute.org/new-roosevelt/federal-budget-not-household-budget-here-s-why http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/03/05/the-federal-budget-is-not-a-household-budget http://www.marketplace.org/topics/economy/comparing-federal-budget-household-budget http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/03/19/174762184/how-the-federal-budget-is-just-like-your-family-budget-or-not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Its all a conspiracy, the bombing of the twin towers started it all so the UN countries would go skint waging war while all the Arabic countries have been growing richer ever since and actually buying up anything that is worth anything in the said UN countries. I doubt the UK will implode as per above posts, people still need food and services which creates demand and debt over time is always worth less isn't it as currency devalues. What gets me is the fact that all the worlds economies stability depends on oil and gas production. Clearly countries without it will suffer in future as prices rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VERYSTORMY Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 You would have to explain to me how that can happen. Sounds like the hedge fund managers that were shorting stocks they knew were going to go bad, to make some money while everyone else suffered. Bit like betting that a company will go bust just so you can make some money on the bet. Not worry that people have lost their jobs. No not at all. We are all used to debt interest versus the interest we get in our savings accounts. Well with government bonds, the interests is the same concept as our mortgage debt interest or credit card. But with a government its equivalent of interest received for savings is actually largely made up for most governments as inflation. So for a lot of the US debt and some of the UK it's a bit like you borrowing $1000 from one bank at 5% interest and being able to put it into a savings account at 6% interest. You make enough to service the debt and actually make a profit from the debt. The risk for governments is if the interest it has to pay goes up. Not much different from us. The rates will go up based though on different factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 No not at all. We are all used to debt interest versus the interest we get in our savings accounts. Well with government bonds, the interests is the same concept as our mortgage debt interest or credit card. But with a government its equivalent of interest received for savings is actually largely made up for most governments as inflation. So for a lot of the US debt and some of the UK it's a bit like you borrowing $1000 from one bank at 5% interest and being able to put it into a savings account at 6% interest. You make enough to service the debt and actually make a profit from the debt. The risk for governments is if the interest it has to pay goes up. Not much different from us. The rates will go up based though on different factors. In the scenario you mention above I would guess the bank paying the 6% interest is going to be swamped by people borrowing money from the other bank at 5% and investing at 6%. Surely that's not a concept that could carry on for very long. Someone is going to go bust. My guess would be the bank with the 6% savings account. How would they keep on paying thi interest? They would need money coming in from somewhere and a way to make a profit. I think we have become so used to debt now that no-one sees a problem with it. Everyone, including countries, are in debt. Their answer seems to be (bit like my nieces) must be OK everyone else is doing it. I know the old theory about cash flow and as long as you can mange cash flow it doesn't really matter how much you borrow as long as you can make the repayments that month, or whenever the repayments are due. That is fine, until the day you can't. I've seen it happen to an economist friend of mine who came over here loaded, paid cash for a 4x2 near the beach and bought a few investment properties and then lost nearly everything, including the house, when the GFC hit. He managed to hang on to his house but has a massive mortgage on it now. Recently we've seen a couple of crises in America where they've had to raise the debt ceiling and here in Aus just do away with the debt ceiling so you don't have to wast time having meetings to decide that your going to have to raise it 'cos you've run out of cash again. All I know is one day it's going to come home to roost and somehow all that borrowed money is either going to be have to paid back or defaulted on and written off. America still continues to print money and can't afford to stop. Otherwise the party's over. Any mention of them slowing down and the rest of the world starts to panic. It's not going to be a happy ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srg73 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Purely my opinion from reading and generally being observant. 1, USA is substantially owned by China after providing the loans to allow USA to continue to function. 2, UK is in a poor position after our red badged politicians spending money much quicker than is was being earned. This put everybody on a financial high with the silly people in the society believing everything they were being told to be true. Common sense says that money is going to run out quickly if your spending more than you earn. What sickened me was the cheap sale of gold, PFI everything and rack up debt from all sources......remember the joker Liam Byrne and the "there is no money left, best of luck" note! Ha Ha, very funny and thanks you idiot!!! 3, The world is slowly becoming more selfish and introverted, everybody looking after themselves hence immigration, increases in crime and a widening of the have and have not. Those that can are now encouraged to get on and do it, those that don't want to are being left behind, the pity is that those that cant are also being left behind. Most immigration is simply people wanting to better themselves however there is a balance to be struck and most countries seem to be too left wing with Australia seeming to be the country every other country tries to model themselves on. I have no doubt that moving from UK to Australia is going to be an eye opener especially considering the levels of personal debt in Australia too. Fortunately I was bought up the old fashioned way, save for what you want, only take credit if you can afford it especially if circumstances change. We therefore have a very manageable mortgage and that's it! Australia to us just seems to have more to offer the world, is not being exploited quite so much and has a more mature relationship with China which I feel will become more and more important with USA's decline. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bunbury61 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Economist Rob Wood, said: “The recovery is snowballing. Business confidence is booming, strong growth is back, unemployment falling and inflation down.”Financial experts at researchers Capital Economics have forecast 3% growth this year and next. That is better than every other nation in the rich G7 group, with struggling France earmarked for just 0.5% growth this year and the US expected to lag with 2.5%. http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/359966/UK-economy-set-to-boom-in-2014 my opinion: jolly good show!! I couldn't believe chinas debt . recently viewed on CNN ....200% of GDP .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndrewRomford Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 If memory serves me correctly, a typical example is that of the WW2 bomber pilot that bought banking shares way back in a now defunct bank. He was planning to live of his investment, pass a bit onto his family and not be a burden. When the <&$£%%^!s> shorted the bank, he lost everything. So his life savings gone in an instant. I guess someone has to pay for the people who love doing this and drinking £1000 bottles of champagne. You would have to explain to me how that can happen. Sounds like the hedge fund managers that were shorting stocks they knew were going to go bad, to make some money while everyone else suffered. Bit like betting that a company will go bust just so you can make some money on the bet. Not worry that people have lost their jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikey Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Japan 200% China 31% I couldn't believe chinas debt . recently viewed on CNN ....200% of GDP .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveandKirsty Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Depends on the perception of 'booming economy'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest 47403 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Depends on the perception of 'booming economy'... I don't think anyone with a brain cell believes it will boom......................a steady improvement will be good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
srg73 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't think anyone with a brain cell believes it will boom......................a steady improvement will be good though. Im not sure where your based Baz but SE UK and London is very near to booming already with building work cropping up everywhere, new posh cars turning up and new shops opening up. Inflation may be on target but house prices are starting to rocket and as a consequence and like idiots people are starting to think they have more disposable income? In simple terms there is too much pent up demand, people who immigrated here a few years ago are generally doing very well for themselves and over seas money pouring in. A little tweak in interest rates will not be far off. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest 47403 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Im not sure where your based Baz but SE UK and London is very near to booming already with building work cropping up everywhere, new posh cars turning up and new shops opening up. Inflation may be on target but house prices are starting to rocket and as a consequence and like idiots people are starting to think they have more disposable income? In simple terms there is too much pent up demand, people who immigrated here a few years ago are generally doing very well for themselves and over seas money pouring in. A little tweak in interest rates will not be far off. S That's the thing though the London and SE isn't the UK the whole economy needs to improve countrywide, I have to laugh when a few posters rant on about the rocketing house prices in the SE don't they realise it is not a good thing!? As for interest rates well the are rumours amongst certain economists that they will increase (considerably) by the 4th quarter 2014! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krystaltips Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Im not sure where your based Baz but SE UK and London is very near to booming already with building work cropping up everywhere, new posh cars turning up and new shops opening up. Inflation may be on target but house prices are starting to rocket and as a consequence and like idiots people are starting to think they have more disposable income? In simple terms there is too much pent up demand, people who immigrated here a few years ago are generally doing very well for themselves and over seas money pouring in. A little tweak in interest rates will not be far off. S The UK property market is without doubt strengthening with particular areas such as London and SE showing absurd growth. Unemployment has fallen far quicker than anticipated and if it continues to drop, longer term inflation pressures will rise, as will interest rates. That isn't a good thing! Britain's economy is definitely looking healthier and will appear to 'boom' for a good while yet, however we still have the likelihood of deflation in Europe as well as China's unstable economy looming overhead.....recovery is a long way off and IMO, unlikely to ever happen. It's hard to see the bigger picture with personal wealth seemingly higher, consumer confidence growing etc...but Britain's economy is a sorry state of affairs. Australia has it's own economic issues, but I know where I'd rather be residing in the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The UK property market is without doubt strengthening with particular areas such as London and SE showing absurd growth. Unemployment has fallen far quicker than anticipated and if it continues to drop, longer term inflation pressures will rise, as will interest rates. That isn't a good thing! Britain's economy is definitely looking healthier and will appear to 'boom' for a good while yet, however we still have the likelihood of deflation in Europe as well as China's unstable economy looming overhead.....recovery is a long way off and IMO, unlikely to ever happen. It's hard to see the bigger picture with personal wealth seemingly higher, consumer confidence growing etc...but Britain's economy is a sorry state of affairs. Australia has it's own economic issues, but I know where I'd rather be residing in the future! Where is the money coming from for the UK property market to be strengthening Krystaltips? All I heard from people when we were there back in August was how they had taken pay cuts or pay had stagnated over the last few years or how they were on 0 hours contracts. We were up North though, round Manchester so it might be a lot different up there. I guess that's the strange thing about the personal wealth seemingly higher too. Are people just increasing there borrowing as the interest rates are very low or do they really have more disposable income? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krystaltips Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Where is the money coming from for the UK property market to be strengthening Krystaltips? All I heard from people when we were there back in August was how they had taken pay cuts or pay had stagnated over the last few years or how they were on 0 hours contracts. We were up North though, round Manchester so it might be a lot different up there. I guess that's the strange thing about the personal wealth seemingly higher too. Are people just increasing there borrowing as the interest rates are very low or do they really have more disposable income? There are many factors but in brief, we've had 8 years of falling/flat interest rates which has propped up the housing market and made borrowing far easier (personal borrowing whether it be mortgages or credit cards etc has increased). We have a vastly increased young-in work dynamic and unemployment has been falling and we have increased foreign investment (panic buying). The strengthening property market shows wide growth variations across the regions (growth much slower in the North of England and Scotland) but as a whole, has in part been responsible for the UK's economic rebound. London is at risk of entering a 'property bubble' and general consensus is that house prices are overvalued, you also have government schemes such as the 'Help to Buy' (which many feel should be scrapped) that further assists in forcing up house prices as it increases demand. House prices on the increase result in more equity within property (for some) in turn, people then decide to move and so the life cycle of supply and demand continue's. Interest rates will have to go up before long, although possibly not this side of the election (or even this year) but once they do, I think we'll start to see things change significantly and it will become more apparent just what a fragile state our economy is in....and on that cheery note!... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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