stuart lawson Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Anz bank slashing jobs, Holden cutting jobs, Victoria Aluminium Plant will probally close unless the government bail them out, Australian Airlines going bust, Billabong closing stores.............. All time high on the Aussie dollar killing tourism & export............ Is the lucky country able to avoid the problems of other western countries ? Or will the recession kick in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quinkla Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I'd say that, apart from the mining sector, most of Australia has been finding things a lot tighter of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest turners gang Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Maybe... Maybe not if it does, I bet its not deep to be honest after going through 2 UK recessions and experiencing the worst effects I just cant see it having the long the same inpact. Australia is wealthier than it realises ... I know companies are finding it tougher, but how tough ? bet most of them have still got their receptionist answering calls on 40$ a year... I often walk in to businesses with 5 staff and a receptionist and I always wonder " how why ? " I'm also still dealing with companies crying out for staff to help with all the work coming in !! you dont/wont see that in many parts of Europe ! Well thats my thoughts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skani Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 It's a global economy and no country can be completely unaffected by economic problems in other regions. So Australia is bound to be impacted to some degree. However, not all the examples given are an indication of this. For example, ANZ have put off staff - but they have also just announced a 1.5 BILLION dollar profit - for the first 3 months of this financial year. So ANZ is not exactly doing it tough. And the Air Australia airline collapse is no surprise to anyone in that industry: it's been a case of ego and image over good management and substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toolbox Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One big advantage Australia has over the UK is they don't have the BBC news to run the country down at every opportunity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pintpot Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Some sectors are struggling but it's not recessionary. The country as a whole is doing fine. I have some data and forecasts somewhere, will try and post up some of the slides It's consumption that's been cut back, as consumers slow spending and try and pay down debt (having seen what's happened elsewhere, and partly because of relatively high interest rates encouraging saving and reducing the availability of cash). And speculative bubble has ended in the housing market, so the spin-off from that (people doing up houses, building extensions, buying furniture etc) is down. So it's retail that's struggling, and tourism where the tourist areas are dependent on overseas visitors who are put off by the sky-high Aussie dollar To some extent the retail sector has been the architect of its own misfortune - lots of the companies took on way too much debt to expand, or were taken over pre-GFC in highly leveraged deals (Billabong etc). So they were in a bad position to deal with harder times. Also the retail sector here is at least 10 years behind the US and UK when it comes to online presence, and this has bitten them on the arse twofold; the strong A$ meant it's much cheaper for consumers to order online from those countries, and the websites make it easy whereas most Aussie retail websites are hopeless. And then they added to their woes by mostly being way too greedy with the strong A$, trying to keep their selling prices high even though they were paying their Chinese suppliers much less. They've dropped them now, but too little, too late, as everyone is now used to, and comfortable with, ordering from overseas. Frankly they will struggle to get back from this position, but I don't have a lot of sympathy In my industry (construction), domestic is struggling in most states (see above), not so much in WA though. Commercial building is also slightly subdued, but less so. Infrastructure is booming though - big govvie schemes in all states plus a ton of investment going in from the miners and oil & gas producers Airlines? Most of them worldwide are a bit wobbly. The high oil prices for the past 7 or 8 years now are spannering them, and the weaker ones or those with big legacy issues are suffering Mining is booming, obviously. You're nowhere near the Capex peak there so it's going to keep going upwards. The challenge for the Aussie government and RBA is stopping that running away with itself, which means fairly tight fiscal and monetary restraint, which will make a lot of other sectors feel like they're struggling - as well as the man in the street The fundamentals here are very, very strong though. You can't compare it to other "Western" economies because it is really part of the Asia Pacific region and reliant on that, totally different economic drivers to those in the US, UK, Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supa Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One big advantage Australia has over the UK is they don't have the BBC news to run the country down at every opportunity This is so very true. I watch the BBC news and one thing I notice is that every item of slightly better news is always followed by a "but", eg, retail sales figures up but we absolutely know, absolutely that it's temporary and everything is going to be pants again in the next quarter. Don't get me started on Robert (de)preston. I know people who are lucky enough to still have jobs, have nice houses and a bit of disposable income who aren't feeling too bad at all about the recession, but the BBC don't. Someone said recently, what about the "and finally" funny bit at the end of the news - says it all really. We all know it's pretty pants at the moment, but someone hovering over any chink of negativity like a vulture ready to make it sound even worse is going to bring everyone down. As for Oz, from the little I know, I don't think there's any way it will fall too far owing the amount of resources it owns. The sad thing I think though is even though the country will still be financially strong because of it, many of its peoples' lives are being affected by losing their jobs and having to pay higher prices for less wages. Bit like here really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2shirts Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Its in a recession of sorts but put it into perspective the government debtis at about 10% of GDP not 90%+ like the UK It has a small population and massive resources. It will ride this recession and come out smiling the other side. Stupid Labour government! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest nikkidel Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I am of the opinion that this recession will carry on for sometime, but that Australia will probably weather it better than a lot of places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2shirts Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 I agree but compared to what is happening in Europe and the UK this is a better place to be. The recovery in Europe will take a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joebloggs Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Was listening to the radio during the week, despite the news about Qantas, Billabong, Bonds jobs losses West farmers anounced on the same day to make 2000 new jobs and Jan 2012 unemployment actually dropped to 5.1% the lowest level in 6 months. In saying that as per what happened during the GFC threat in late 2008 any sign of a ripple and the Australian government will cut immigration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Ropey HOFF Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 One big advantage Australia has over the UK is they don't have the BBC news to run the country down at every opportunity They do have alot of ammunition, the uk economy is in the doldrums and has been for the last few years with no sign of any improvement, you can put lipstick on a pig, but its still a pig. The government are borrowing £150 Billion pounds this year, so theres no sign the cuts are making any difference. I would be pleased if Australia had a mini slump, say for 6 months, so that the dollar might go back to 2 to £1 and houses prices might drop also, that would help us enormously, but only a mini slump, afterall we would be living there and we wouldn't want it to last 5 years like here in the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pintpot Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Headline slide I've culled from a presentation I went to last week [ATTACH=CONFIG]12582[/ATTACH] Stacks of stuff behind this....essentially the main driver for Australia is (of course) commodity sales to Asian economies, and despite an assumption in the West that these economies depend on Western demand for growth, it ain't the case - see second slide. This continued very strong growth, largely driven by domestic B2B and consumer demand in Asia itself, continues to push commodity prices, which for Australia means a lot more cash coming in. [ATTACH=CONFIG]12583[/ATTACH] Note third slide also on the fact that a lot of the medium term outlook is almost "locked in". I didn't agree with all of the CBA's forecasts (I am originally an Economist although I don't work as one now) but they're not a million miles away. The risks to Australia are quite limited because the big international risk in the global economy - the Eurozone implosion that will probably happen sooner rather than later - is at arm's length. It won't be unaffected by it, hence stock market jitters, but should be more resilient to such an event than most Western economies [ATTACH=CONFIG]12584[/ATTACH] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jinn Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 They do have alot of ammunition, the uk economy is in the doldrums and has been for the last few years with no sign of any improvement, you can put lipstick on a pig, but its still a pig. Where are these jobs in the best country to live in the world? I check careerone.com. and seek.com and I see only low numbers of jobs as low like in 2009, it means hundreds of applicants applying for jobs - huge competition. I moved back last year from Oz to the Uk, send few cv's at the beggining and while enjoying my first days wth friends in lovely pubs I got 3 phone calls. One of them was on Thursday to go on 1 day training on Friday and start on Monday next week, but I had to refuse 'cos I didnt have a suitable vehicle and waiting for my tool boxes I shipped from Australia. Got another job next days and our manager asked us to work on Sunday and everyone refused - but in australia I was happy to work any days and didnt refuse to work Sundays for standard rate. financial recession - I never had any problems to find a job in the UK but always had problems in Australia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belaroy Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 i'm not a financial anylist or anything like that but the news does only tell you the bad stories- not the stories where people are being employed. I can't see it going into 6 months of negative output when it already passed the big trouble 3 years ago with barley a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Ropey HOFF Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Where are these jobs in the best country to live in the world? I check careerone.com. and seek.com and I see only low numbers of jobs as low like in 2009, it means hundreds of applicants applying for jobs - huge competition.I moved back last year from Oz to the Uk, send few cv's at the beggining and while enjoying my first days wth friends in lovely pubs I got 3 phone calls. One of them was on Thursday to go on 1 day training on Friday and start on Monday next week, but I had to refuse 'cos I didnt have a suitable vehicle and waiting for my tool boxes I shipped from Australia. Got another job next days and our manager asked us to work on Sunday and everyone refused - but in australia I was happy to work any days and didnt refuse to work Sundays for standard rate. financial recession - I never had any problems to find a job in the UK but always had problems in Australia Few thank goodness for that, i was beginning to believe all the constant bad news on the telly, of europe imploding and the uk heading towards 3 million unemployed and over one million youths out of work, also apparently there is nearly a whopping 4 per cent less unemployment in Australia compared to the uk, but i now realise its all hogwash, you can't believe owt on the telly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petals Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Guess it comes down to personal circumstances as to whether its thought of as a recession, its definitely a recession if one is out of work and has applied for hundreds of jobs and had no response. I saw someone who owns a cafe expounding how Baristas are needed but it all comes down to what do they pay, what are the conditions, as if its minimum wage and no penalty then people cannot afford the rent etc. Better off on benefits if a family person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest rrwilky Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Where are these jobs in the best country to live in the world? I check careerone.com. and seek.com and I see only low numbers of jobs as low like in 2009, it means hundreds of applicants applying for jobs - huge competition.I moved back last year from Oz to the Uk, send few cv's at the beggining and while enjoying my first days wth friends in lovely pubs I got 3 phone calls. One of them was on Thursday to go on 1 day training on Friday and start on Monday next week, but I had to refuse 'cos I didnt have a suitable vehicle and waiting for my tool boxes I shipped from Australia. Got another job next days and our manager asked us to work on Sunday and everyone refused - but in australia I was happy to work any days and didnt refuse to work Sundays for standard rate. financial recession - I never had any problems to find a job in the UK but always had problems in Australia My oh is on short time and there are no jobs around in electrical at all near us, yet I looked n seek the other day and there were over 300 he was qualified for, and the same goes for me, much more opportunity in oz for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vindee2011 Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 HI All, Following this thread with caution. Not sure what to believe and advice here appears to depend on different peoples circumstances in different areas, and in different sectors. 1 Simple question for you, perhaps some one here is qualified to answer it for us> OH is a Qualified QS, and exp in Timber Frame Modular Design & Site Management, and searching for work in Perth currently. Q- What are construction professionals prospects like in Perth at the moment, (not civils, or mining related) for domestic house building staff with experience? Hard to know as it appears to be that the only jobs are in mining, or filling the civil engineering vacancies left by the Perth lads that went North. If any one reading this thread actually works in the construction industry in Perth area, could you reply with an honest opinion, as we are about to make the biggest family move of our lives, and we really need it to be to the right location and for a better way of life. Thank you. DV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boganbear Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 One big advantage Australia has over the UK is they don't have the BBC news to run the country down at every opportunity No but they have the commercial channels showing A Current Affair and Today Tonight which dumb down the country at every opportunity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fergal007 Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Some sectors are struggling but it's not recessionary. The country as a whole is doing fine. I have some data and forecasts somewhere, will try and post up some of the slides It's consumption that's been cut back, as consumers slow spending and try and pay down debt (having seen what's happened elsewhere, and partly because of relatively high interest rates encouraging saving and reducing the availability of cash). And speculative bubble has ended in the housing market, so the spin-off from that (people doing up houses, building extensions, buying furniture etc) is down. So it's retail that's struggling, and tourism where the tourist areas are dependent on overseas visitors who are put off by the sky-high Aussie dollar To some extent the retail sector has been the architect of its own misfortune - lots of the companies took on way too much debt to expand, or were taken over pre-GFC in highly leveraged deals (Billabong etc). So they were in a bad position to deal with harder times. Also the retail sector here is at least 10 years behind the US and UK when it comes to online presence, and this has bitten them on the arse twofold; the strong A$ meant it's much cheaper for consumers to order online from those countries, and the websites make it easy whereas most Aussie retail websites are hopeless. And then they added to their woes by mostly being way too greedy with the strong A$, trying to keep their selling prices high even though they were paying their Chinese suppliers much less. They've dropped them now, but too little, too late, as everyone is now used to, and comfortable with, ordering from overseas. Frankly they will struggle to get back from this position, but I don't have a lot of sympathy In my industry (construction), domestic is struggling in most states (see above), not so much in WA though. Commercial building is also slightly subdued, but less so. Infrastructure is booming though - big govvie schemes in all states plus a ton of investment going in from the miners and oil & gas producers Airlines? Most of them worldwide are a bit wobbly. The high oil prices for the past 7 or 8 years now are spannering them, and the weaker ones or those with big legacy issues are suffering Mining is booming, obviously. You're nowhere near the Capex peak there so it's going to keep going upwards. The challenge for the Aussie government and RBA is stopping that running away with itself, which means fairly tight fiscal and monetary restraint, which will make a lot of other sectors feel like they're struggling - as well as the man in the street The fundamentals here are very, very strong though. You can't compare it to other "Western" economies because it is really part of the Asia Pacific region and reliant on that, totally different economic drivers to those in the US, UK, Europe Just what I was thinking on my reccie trip at Christmas! well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozziepom Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 A recession is defined as two quarters of negative growth which looks highly unlikely in the short term so no Australia doesn't look to be technically in recession any time soon, however that doesn't tell the whole story. Many industries are struggling due to the ongoing effects of the GFC and also from the strong dollar, this has two effects, industries which depend on selling their products to consumers from other countries (e.g. tourism) find their product much more expensive to their customers and companies have great incentives to employ overseas workers (paid in cheaper currency and lower wages) resulting in job losses here in Australia. Retailing also suffers as consumers import directly from overseas, great if you're buying cheap stuff on ebay, not so great if you work for a local retailer and loose your job. What I'm saying is of course Australia is in a far better position than other westernised economies (Europe and the US) but not everything is rosy, the economy as a whole seems pretty unbalanced and also very vulnerable to any slow down or problem in Asia, especially China, and if you look closely at what's going on over there (housing bubble, local govt corruption, bad debts etc) that's not impossible either! I feel very lucky to be here and to have a good job, but I'm saving my money, not being complacent and not assuming conditions will stay this way for ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graemsay Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 McKinsey produce an annual report entitled Debt and Deleveraging on the fiscal position of the developed economies. This diagram is pulled from it. Australia isn't in that bad a place, aside from the high level of household debt. Were there to be a recession, then the country has more room for manoeuvre than the UK does. Similarly, the Australian base rate is higher (4.25% versus 0.5% in the UK). There are several risks to the economy. The first is house prices and the associated debt, and a property market crash could take a wrecking ball to it. After all, it didn't end well in Ireland. Falling house prices can be a leading indicator of a recession. (They started to fall in the UK in 2007, a year before things turned nasty.) Which might be a sign that there's trouble ahead in Australia. The other is Dutch Disease, where the dollar is driven up to such a level by the resources boom that other sectors suffer. And if the economy becomes dependent on mining then a slowdown in China could derail things. I believe that things are currently better Down Under, but it strikes me that there's a slow down going on, whereas the UK is bouncing along the bottom after the recession in 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest oldmarried Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 one of the other big problems in the uk was the sudden lack of credit in the market, both for businesses and consumers. From what I read this isn`t the case in Oz, although it does sound like banks are getting tighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2shirts Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Take all the economic statistics out of the equation - the only thing that really matters is confidence and I can tell you people are hurting here on the Sunshine Coast in Qld - its in recession as far as the locals are concerned. Hopefully the elections will restore confidence and things will bounce back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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