eu referendum update

[amibovered]

If Scotland votes for independence, maybe the UK will impose punitive tariffs on them as punishment.

[Quokka2005]

I really hate the way this country has ended up, sometimes I actually wish I could go back to the point where I was oblivious to all this type of stuff

[newjez]

Don't you think that there will be more extreme versions of UKIP that will spring up to feast on the discontent.

I sincerely hope not but that is what has happened in the past when there is a well of discontent to tap into.

 

 

They may even blow up some mosques. Stab/shoot a few people. It's what people do when there is no political solution. Same old same old.

[BacktoDemocracy]

I keep hearing this quoted. It's bunk!

That's what Norway and Switzerland negotiated. The UK does not have to agree to this. They can say it's non-negotiable. The EU knows this was one of, perhaps even the biggest reason the UK is leaving. They will HAVE to be flexible on this. I can't see Merkel going to the leaders of the powerful unions in Germany that the car companies are going to have to slow down production - no more output to the UK because they won't allow free movement. It will never happen.

 

Err, I don't understand, the EU will have to let us negotiate that!

We are the ones leaving, we are the ones who have done a poo poo on the carpet , as I keep saying the EU cannot let us walk away with anything or all the other right wing groups are going to want to pull the same stroke.

France ! Germany, Spain, Italy, Austria all have their own UKIP ' S or worse so forget negotiating I reckon.

[newjez]

I keep hearing this quoted. It's bunk!

That's what Norway and Switzerland negotiated. The UK does not have to agree to this. They can say it's non-negotiable. The EU knows this was one of, perhaps even the biggest reason the UK is leaving. They will HAVE to be flexible on this. I can't see Merkel going to the leaders of the powerful unions in Germany that the car companies are going to have to slow down production - no more output to the UK because they won't allow free movement. It will never happen.

 

 

I really don't think you understand how these things work. We are a little country negotiating with a super power. We have no leverage. What are we going to threaten them with. There's overstating your importance and then there's just bloody ridiculous. So we threaten to destroy our economy if they don't play ball? They will piss themselves laughing. Try walking into your bosses office and asking for a 20% pay rise or you will quit. After you quit, you go back and offer to do a bit of freelance work for him. Security would escort you off the premises. There will be no restrictions on movement.

[Wooba]

I really don't think you understand how these things work. We are a little country negotiating with a super power. We have no leverage. What are we going to threaten them with. There's overstating your importance and then there's just bloody ridiculous. So we threaten to destroy our economy if they don't play ball? They will piss themselves laughing. Try walking into your bosses office and asking for a 20% pay rise or you will quit. After you quit, you go back and offer to do a bit of freelance work for him. Security would escort you off the premises. There will be no restrictions on movement.

 

I think it's you who don't know what you're talking about. You're comparing the economies of an entire continent and especially Germany to asking your boss for a raise. Yes, of course the UK and EU will have to negotiate. Yes the EU will want to be tough. But they are not going to set their own house on fire to do it. The UK can say that the movement of people is non-negotiable. If the EU says no dice then the UK can focus on the rest of the world and the EU can focus on the next Greek bailout and the revolutions on the street of the German factory workers.

 

I understand yours and Backtodemocracy's points that the EU needs to be tough. I agree, they do. But they are not going to destroy themselves to achieve it.

[newjez]

I think it's you who don't know what you're talking about. You're comparing the economies of an entire continent and especially Germany to asking your boss for a raise. Yes, of course the UK and EU will have to negotiate. Yes the EU will want to be tough. But they are not going to set their own house on fire to do it. The UK can say that the movement of people is non-negotiable. If the EU says no dice then the UK can focus on the rest of the world and the EU can focus on the next Greek bailout and the revolutions on the street of the German factory workers.

 

I understand yours and Backtodemocracy's points that the EU needs to be tough. I agree, they do. But they are not going to destroy themselves to achieve it.

 

Good luck with that one mate. No point arguing about what might happen.

 

But in the meantime, have a read about the shape of things to come

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/evan-davis-newsnight-bbc-daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-brexit_uk_576e2967e4b08d2c56393241

Edited June 25, 2016 by newjez

[Wooba]

Good luck with that one mate. No point arguing about what might happen.

 

But in the meantime, have a read about the shape of things to come

 

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/evan-davis-newsnight-bbc-daniel-hannan-mep-eu-referendum-brexit_uk_576e2967e4b08d2c56393241

 

You're right, we can speculate until the cows come home. I know one thing about this world with certainty. Money talks. Money trumps just about everything else. And because of that I believe that the EU will bite their tongue to a certain extent and be more flexible on things that really don't matter. Why would it be so important for them to have free movement of labour? We'll have to wait and see what happens

 

As for the article, I watched the video and I have to say I'm a bit disappointed at that video. I like that politician. I've watched several of his speeches/interviews and he seemed like a straight shooter. If this is the plan (and this is just one guy talking, he's not the one making any decisions) then they should have been more open about it. Unfortunately that's how all politicians work and all elections work. Nothing new there.

 

That said, IF this was to be the sort of deal they are talking about then it could be something that works that pleases both sides. It gives the UK control of the borders and stops an influx of low skilled migrants but makes it easier for business to be conducted and it's a bone for the EU to say to their people we negotiated a deal allowing our workers to cross the border.

 

If I take where I live for example. We have the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Under this agreement Canadians and Americans are allowed to come to each others country for business meetings and things like that. You're still working for your employer in your home country, but there's a business need for you to be there for a short time. Also, people with certain high skilled occupations can get a job offer and show up to the border with it and get immediate residence. It works well and neither country has unskilled people coming across to work.

[BacktoDemocracy]

You're right, we can speculate until the cows come home. I know one thing about this world with certainty. Money talks. Money trumps just about everything else. And because of that I believe that the EU will bite their tongue to a certain extent and be more flexible on things that really don't matter. Why would it be so important for them to have free movement of labour? We'll have to wait and see what happens

 

As for the article, I watched the video and I have to say I'm a bit disappointed at that video. I like that politician. I've watched several of his speeches/interviews and he seemed like a straight shooter. If this is the plan (and this is just one guy talking, he's not the one making any decisions) then they should have been more open about it. Unfortunately that's how all politicians work and all elections work. Nothing new there.

 

That said, IF this was to be the sort of deal they are talking about then it could be something that works that pleases both sides. It gives the UK control of the borders and stops an influx of low skilled migrants but makes it easier for business to be conducted and it's a bone for the EU to say to their people we negotiated a deal allowing our workers to cross the border.

 

If I take where I live for example. We have the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Under this agreement Canadians and Americans are allowed to come to each others country for business meetings and things like that. You're still working for your employer in your home country, but there's a business need for you to be there for a short time. Also, people with certain high skilled occupations can get a job offer and show up to the border with it and get immediate residence. It works well and neither country has unskilled people coming across to work.

mThe EU is well and truly pissed with the UK, we are not going to get anything, Spain has its own province problems and is about to have its 2nd election in 4 months with a hard left party taking local control of cities and provinces, France has Le Pen about to take 2nd place in the elections, Merkel is facing elections with the extreme right breathing down her neck, Greece has a neo nazi party, Austria just avoided an extreme right president , Holland has problems with a populist extreme right party .Denmark ditto.

Go figure, political survival trumps business every time.

Edited June 25, 2016 by BacktoDemocracy

[newjez]

Jean-Claude Piris, a former head of the EU council legal service, said claims that Britain would get unfettered access to the single market, without free movement of people, were the equivalent of believing in Father Christmas. He said the British “cannot get as good a deal as they have now, it is impossible”.

 

Jingle bells, jingle bells...

[Wooba]

Jean-Claude Piris, a former head of the EU council legal service, said claims that Britain would get unfettered access to the single market, without free movement of people, were the equivalent of believing in Father Christmas. He said the British “cannot get as good a deal as they have now, it is impossible”.

 

Jingle bells, jingle bells...

 

Well if Jean-Claude Piris has said so, then so it shall be. The hundreds of thousands of workers around Europe will be happy to sit at home instead of working because Mr. Piris said so.

[Wooba]

BTW, I don't think anyone in the Brexit campaign expects to get "unfettered" access to the single market. I'm not naive to believe there won't be conditions and nobody else is either. But one of the conditions from the UK side to a trade deal is that there will be no free movement of people. That's the condition, let's work on the rest of the details. I'm not sure why this is a hard concept to grasp.

[amibovered]

The boss of the EU has spoken

 

"The negotiations must take place in a businesslike, good climate. Britain will remain a close partner, with which we are linked economically."

 

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2016-06-25/merkel-calms-calls-for-quick-brexit-process-after-referendum/

[amibovered]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said the European Union has "no need to be particularly nasty in any way" in the negotiations with Britain about its exit from the bloc.

She insisted that deterring other countries from leaving the EU should not be a priority in the talks.

 

And she added she was not in favour of pushing for a speedy withdrawal.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36630326

[Gbye grey sky]

I really don't think you understand how these things work. We are a little country negotiating with a super power. We have no leverage. What are we going to threaten them with. There's overstating your importance and then there's just bloody ridiculous. So we threaten to destroy our economy if they don't play ball? They will piss themselves laughing. Try walking into your bosses office and asking for a 20% pay rise or you will quit. After you quit, you go back and offer to do a bit of freelance work for him. Security would escort you off the premises. There will be no restrictions on movement.

 

This is right and I'm afraid it is something I have argued with Pro-Leavers for weeks about. There is this dumb idea they have that because the UK imports more from the EU than it exports that they will agree to conditions the UK imposes on them for our access to the common market.

 

The levels of delusion would be funny if it wasn't so bloody serious.

 

Britain cannot afford a trade war with Europe. Literally millions would be out of work within months, the economy would collapse, the government would have to introduce food rationing. The world economy would be in turmoil and everyone would know the UK had caused it. And all to try to stop the free movement of Labour - which has actually been a good thing for the UK.

 

Leavers voted for LIES. They were warned they were lies and over the coming weeks the penny will drop.

[winter1]

Maybe we should never have a change of government at an election either unless the opposition get over 60% of the vote.

 

That way the Tories can stay in forever.

 

The difference is that you can vote a government out in Australia once every 3 years and in the UK 5 so it is not the end.

[winter1]

Yes - I can't see London continuing as the unofficial financial capital of Europe. If I were a financial institution I would already be scouting for alternative locations.

 

If Scotland get independence then Edinburgh still an English speaking bridge to the EU that would boost the Scottish economy astronomically

[Perthbum]

This is right and I'm afraid it is something I have argued with Pro-Leavers for weeks about. There is this dumb idea they have that because the UK imports more from the EU than it exports that they will agree to conditions the UK imposes on them for our access to the common market.

 

The levels of delusion would be funny if it wasn't so bloody serious.

 

Britain cannot afford a trade war with Europe. Literally millions would be out of work within months, the economy would collapse, the government would have to introduce food rationing. The world economy would be in turmoil and everyone would know the UK had caused it. And all to try to stop the free movement of Labour - which has actually been a good thing for the UK.

 

Leavers voted for LIES. They were warned they were lies and over the coming weeks the penny will drop.

Rubbish, europe needs the UK more than we need them, they will not cause massive job losses in their own countries by not selling to the UK

[Katie22]

The best thing to come out of this would be for Juncker and his cronies to get out and the whole EU reformed whereby we share trade and controlled migration. As it is it seems that the EU body is a corrupt and capitalist organisation. The sad thing is that Britain and Europe now seems divided and this is the fault of not only past and present British politicians but European leaders and the EU itself.

 

Surely if the EU give the UK such a hard time in negotiations then this would not help their cause at all, it would only prove to the other doubters what a bullying organisation they really are and give even more power to the far right groups. Best thing is to let the dust settle and no one to make any rash decisions. None of those European leaders want to destroy their relationship with the UK, it will probably only be the bitter, spiteful EU leaders who do.

[winter1]

Rubbish, europe needs the UK more than we need them, they will not cause massive job losses in their own countries by not selling to the UK

 

http://www.theaa.com/motoring_advice/car-buyers-guide/cbg-cars-made-in-britain.html

 

really look at this list and tell me which of these manufacturers are British made and British owned. the foreign owned ones could all go overseas as Ford already has done. Then we would not earn any income from them. If we had any money left we could then buy from them but they probably wouldn't care as they would be selling the cars previously made here elsewhere. Oh and we won't have any of the protections from the EU re trade that we currently do.

 

They are only selling cars in the UK because the UK was doing well at least until last Friday.

Edited June 26, 2016 by winter1

[Gbye grey sky]

Rubbish, europe needs the UK more than we need them, they will not cause massive job losses in their own countries by not selling to the UK

 

The EU are unequivocal that if you want access to the European market you must accept free movement of labour. The sooner people realise this the less upset they are going to be when they realise voting Leave makes no difference to immigration policy. Of course if Leaving costs jobs and unemployment goes up then net migration will fall dramatically so I suppose those who voted for Leave will have to pin their hopes on a recession.

[winter1]

 

 

Edited June 26, 2016 by winter1

[Roberta2]

question re the Scots. They (or most of them) seem to think that if they have another referendum and succeed in exiting the UK, the EU will welcome them with open arms. But preconditions for entering the EU as a sovereign state would be quite strict. The Europeans are likely to think the Scots will be net beneficiaries, no? Their main asset - North Sea oil - is declining both in production and in price (because of US shale oil, fracking etc) Now in effect mendicants in the UK. And are the Scots seriously proposing that there be an international border on what is now mainland Britain? I also assume that if the Scots were successful in getting into the EU, they would have to be in the Eurozone as well. i.e. they would have to cede sovereignty over their currency and interest rates in effect to the Bundesbank? (Question asked out of sheer curiosity and a conversation with my UK based son. No skin in the game)

[Liam13]

An independent Scotland doesn't mean they would be eligible as an EU member. I believe France already said they would veto scotland joining.. The vote is final and the majority won. now a petition has begun for another referendum. It makes everyones vote worthless when this an happen.

[Suzukiscottie]

International border? It'll be the English demanding that, not the Scots proposing it! Is there an international border between NI and Eire? An oft-used scare tactic.

 

North Sea oil has been trending upwards for the last 6 months. New oil field discoveries were announced just after the Scottish referendum, when only weeks before they were foretelling that the supply would stop imminently! Strange that!

 

Scotland would be less of a risk to joining the EU than some other countries with the intent of joining. They are already currently in it!

 

Currency choices will likely be an issue to think over. When Ireland went Euro, many businesses in NI operated with 3 currencies (Punt, Euro, Pound) for a whole year and everything still worked out just fine.

 

 

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