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Australian Dollar and the Pound


DivingMissDaisy

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Well David and most of his cabinet are backing staying in the EU, I suspect Boris Johnson's stance will be influential when he reveals his hand.

 

A move back to the levels we saw last August would make a huge difference to the sum we can transfer over, enough to buy a load of nice furniture or reno a kitchen when we buy a house! Gonna be a tense few months!

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Fear with a date now set, it will drop a bit lower. Just like the Scottish vote time. If the UK vote to stay in the club, it will bounce back well, $2.2 in short order. If they break away, it will hover for ages while details are worked out.

Guess then we will have to take a lead on US election and feelings to get any movement in the $AU.

I have a reasonable amount to move when house sells. Hard call on some fronts. Wait and see what happens, while earning no real interest. Or move it over and earn some, expecting to need the funds before it climbs to anything useful.

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I think we'll wait. We start house hunting late June/early July after our holiday - we're in Hawaii for the referendum! Hope I still get to use my postal vote!! We have enough funds for deposit, the remainder is for renos/adding pool - or topping up the deposit if we find somewhere perfect but more expensive!

 

It's a tough call and risky, but interest earned in Aus wouldn't compete with a more favourable exchange rate!

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Still a good rate.

Was $1.50 to $1.55 for a few years recently.

 

Actually that was just a bad rate brought on by the GFC and BofEs decision to cut interest rates to 0.5% where they have remained ever since. Historically the average rate is more like $2.20 but with current uncertainty in UK on the Brexit vote coupled with near zero inflation and no forseeable prospect of an interest rate rise it may be some time before we see a return to this.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1.91...

 

Down down down

 

It will go lower in the short term, against all currencies - it's the Brexit uncertainty amongst other things (such as underperforming economy and talk of further rate cuts). And if there is a Brexit it will go lower still. And that is what the Brexit lobby will want because it's good for exports, and being outside of the EU, they'll need it! Of course, the vast majority of the population will suffer as prices go up as we import most of our goods. And mostly from the EU, which in turn may mean prices going up even further as we would no longer be in the free trade area. Good luck with that.

 

 

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Edited by The Pommy
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.... may mean prices going up even further as we would no longer be in the free trade area.

 

Would only apply if the Westminster politicians decide to put a tax on EU imports (being in the free trade area they're prohibited from doing that but they wouldn't have to do it merely because they could).

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Would only apply if the Westminster politicians decide to put a tax on EU imports (being in the free trade area they're prohibited from doing that but they wouldn't have to do it merely because they could).

 

One of the benefits of being in the EU, that is often overlooked apart from when moaning about it, is the standardisation. A company can produce against the EU standard and that can be sold in all locations. The minute the UK diverges, companies importing the UK will need to create UK specific models, at cost, and that cost will be passed on to the consumer. The UK market is not as big or as important as people like to think. Compared to the rest of the EU, and India and China, the UK is chicken feed. So to mitigate the issue of diverging standards, the UK would need to continue to adopt EU standards to keep costs down on imports. But then that goes against the Brexitters wishes to "cut red tape from Brussels". Bit of a dilemma there...

 

Some examples of where we have benefitted in the past is: common EU voltage (230V, as opposed to 240V UK and 220V Europe - in practice this means products can operate 220-240V, but wasn't always the case), car specifications such as the fitting of fog lights, etc.

 

Also bear in mind that all of the trade administration in the EU is dealt with centrally. Subsidies come from the EU. Outside of the EU, there will still need to be administration in place for things that the EU deals with centrally, and farmers will still want their subsidies. Now given the government is always looking to cut costs, do people really believe that the government will take over grants and subsidies and pay these out instead of the EU doing it? What will be the cost of negotiating the managing all the new trade agreements that are currently held centrally at EU level? How will that all be paid from by the UK government? After all, we are being told that by leaving the EU there will be massive cost savings, and that we can have lots of new hospitals can be built. We can't have our cake and eat it.

 

 

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Edited by The Pommy
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Would only apply if the Westminster politicians decide to put a tax on EU imports (being in the free trade area they're prohibited from doing that but they wouldn't have to do it merely because they could).

 

 

Regardless of any import Duty surely if the Pound was devalued as is likely on Brexit, then it would cost more to bye goods from the EU and elsewhere than it currently does. So as Pommy rightly says prices would go up.

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Regardless of any import Duty surely if the Pound was devalued as is likely on Brexit, then it would cost more to bye goods from the EU and elsewhere than it currently does. So as Pommy rightly says prices would go up.

 

The pound will go down in the short term due to the uncertainty - but no one knows what Brexit will do to it in the long term.

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The pound will go down in the short term due to the uncertainty - but no one knows what Brexit will do to it in the long term.

 

Brexit will trigger more uncertainty. What will our relationship be with the EU, what can we negotiate, how will business react, etc. I predict that will be more damaging to Sterling than the uncertainty that we have now, which is, there is uncertainty about whether we'll have longer term uncertainty. Brexit will depress Sterling for a couple of years. And it will impact imports, which we rely upon as we've destroyed our manufacturing industry, and our service industry (the great Thatcherite hope) is being sent off to low cost economies.

 

 

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The pound will go down in the short term due to the uncertainty - but no one knows what Brexit will do to it in the long term.

 

Mark Carney Governor of the Bank of England was asked by a select committee in the UK Parliament his view and he answered that it was the BoE view that being in Europe had been good for the UK. He did have to qualify later and say that Brexit may be good or bad for the UK as he had to due to him having to walk a fine tightrope to remain neutral in the vote. My take is that if we were to leave the EU Scotland would leave the UK more uncertainty and the likelihood would be perpetual Conservative governments in England and Wales. You often hear Conservatives spouting we have to control our own issues but only 13% of laws come from Brussels and even those are voted in with Conservative MEPs no rules contrary to the popular belief are introduce by unelected officials they only enforce the rules that are.

The working time directive is often quoted but this provides important safeguards for workers. If there is a Brexit I can see the mother of all "Work Choices" being imposed on those remaining in the UK. So I see a long period of a low Pound.

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I can see both sides but think at this point leaving is not in go best interests. Problem is ppl only hear/see what they want to and that may swing the vote...

i don't think we should have joined in the first place but tbh as an nhs worker I have benefitted and also our flight to Oz was delayed so we got $$ because of EU law....

if we were still manufacturing and lots of industry... But we're not...

just wish change rate improves.......

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