Guest xmas lights Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Rates kept on hold but with a dovish bias. February is now the next opportunity to move rates. Still think $2:20+ early next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter1 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 (edited) If anyone tells you "it will be better on x date" then they are deluded. It is just a question of when you feel it is right for you. You may win or you may lose. Just remember if you have moved to Australia on a PR visa you are liable to tax on the difference in the rate from the day you arrived in Aus as a capital gain.Also just heard the UK growth rate has stagnated again and improvement not expected till 2017 now. There are some exemptions but it is different in every case. Edited November 5, 2015 by winter1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest xmas lights Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/aud/3062-australian-dollar-exchange-rate-outlook-anz-45345 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hjd Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 My BF keeps a regular eye on this site. Very interesting reading. Sounds like it might be good to hold off if you can. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/aud/3062-australian-dollar-exchange-rate-outlook-anz-45345 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest xmas lights Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 good employment figs in oz today so aud rising. I think another 3 months before all the mining job losses start to kick in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNC FABS Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 US fed resv slated to increase rates tomorrow. could this push further changes ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 US fed resv slated to increase rates tomorrow. could this push further changes ? Unlikely to make a big difference I believe as the market are expecting this. There will be a bigger effect if they don't make a change I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNC FABS Posted December 29, 2015 Share Posted December 29, 2015 2.02 today, going in wrong direction. where the hell is my 2.20 plus. can't be profit taking / shorting ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest xmas lights Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The pound is about 10 cents undervalued against the AUD at present in my opinion compared to how other currencies are faring against AUD. Perhaps due to Brexit fears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest xmas lights Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 in fact the pound is behaving more like a commodity currency rather than a currency.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNC FABS Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 does the real world really see brexit as real ??. I always thought the UK doesn't have the spine for it. Some healthy movement past 2 days, touched 2.09 $/£. I suppose all we really need is folks to feel confident that interest rates will rise this year. Or are we all scared again with Soros's comments the other day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 (edited) does the real world really see brexit as real ??". This may seem off topic but gives reasons why the pound may not get any stronger against the AUD. Unfortunately I consider Brexit a real possibility, unless the real facts are explained to the UK population latest polls indicate it is too close to call. The right wing press like the Daily Mail, Express, and Rupert Murdoch's Sun and Times constantly drip feed negative comments about Europe. I see many benefits of Europe for ordinary people, for example when I worked in the UK in an On-Call role I would often get called out in the middle of the night after a full days work. I would have to work 2 to 4 hours get home at 5am and was expected to turn up at my normal workplace by 9am the same morning driving a company vehicle. The European working time directive put an end to that and insisted on a 10 hour break between these times. Also the Number of UK pensioners living in Europe may suffer the same fate as those that live in Australia that is their state pensions are frozen from when they first draw them. This could cause a great many to return to the UK many older people who would be entitled to NHS care putting a great strain on the system. Most European migrants to the UK are young and despite the rhetoric are not the drain that the aforementioned press constantly rail against. Australia maintains a certain amount of growth from immigration. With the possibility of a September 2016 vote now being contemplated by pundits. Brits are often told we want to rule ourselves not Brussels, however it is the elite Eton types who would be in power. I think that I prefer the social democratic slant from Europe. Nothing is ideal but it is not just about straight bananas and the refugees would still be trying to cross borders regardless. So nobody should count their chickens re exchange rates, things can and do change quickly either way. Edited January 9, 2016 by winter1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This may seem off topic but gives reasons why the pound may not get any stronger against the AUD.Unfortunately I consider Brexit a real possibility, unless the real facts are explained to the UK population latest polls indicate it is too close to call. The right wing press like the Daily Mail, Express, and Rupert Murdoch's Sun and Times constantly drip feed negative comments about Europe. I see many benefits of Europe for ordinary people, for example when I worked in the UK in an On-Call role I would often get called out in the middle of the night after a full days work. I would have to work 2 to 4 hours get home at 5am and was expected to turn up at my normal workplace by 9am the same morning driving a company vehicle. The European working time directive put an end to that and insisted on a 10 hour break between these times. Also the Number of UK pensioners living in Europe may suffer the same fate as those that live in Australia that is their state pensions are frozen from when they first draw them. This could cause a great many to return to the UK many older people who would be entitled to NHS care putting a great strain on the system. Most European migrants to the UK are young and despite the rhetoric are not the drain that the aforementioned press constantly rail against. Australia maintains a certain amount of growth from immigration. With the possibility of a September 2016 vote now being contemplated by pundits. Brits are often told we want to rule ourselves not Brussels, however it is the elite Eton types who would be in power. I think that I prefer the social democratic slant from Europe. Nothing is ideal but it is not just about straight bananas and the refugees would still be trying to cross borders regardless. So nobody should count their chickens re exchange rates, things can and do change quickly either way. Cannot disagree with your analysis but why exactly would Brexit auger a fall in the value of GBP? Simply the uncertainty factor or are there sound economic reasons for a devaluation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Cannot disagree with your analysis but why exactly would Brexit auger a fall in the value of GBP? Simply the uncertainty factor or are there sound economic reasons for a devaluation. Both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 This may seem off topic but gives reasons why the pound may not get any stronger against the AUD.Unfortunately I consider Brexit a real possibility, unless the real facts are explained to the UK population latest polls indicate it is too close to call. The right wing press like the Daily Mail, Express, and Rupert Murdoch's Sun and Times constantly drip feed negative comments about Europe. I see many benefits of Europe for ordinary people, for example when I worked in the UK in an On-Call role I would often get called out in the middle of the night after a full days work. I would have to work 2 to 4 hours get home at 5am and was expected to turn up at my normal workplace by 9am the same morning driving a company vehicle. The European working time directive put an end to that and insisted on a 10 hour break between these times. Also the Number of UK pensioners living in Europe may suffer the same fate as those that live in Australia that is their state pensions are frozen from when they first draw them. This could cause a great many to return to the UK many older people who would be entitled to NHS care putting a great strain on the system. Most European migrants to the UK are young and despite the rhetoric are not the drain that the aforementioned press constantly rail against. Australia maintains a certain amount of growth from immigration. With the possibility of a September 2016 vote now being contemplated by pundits. Brits are often told we want to rule ourselves not Brussels, however it is the elite Eton types who would be in power. I think that I prefer the social democratic slant from Europe. Nothing is ideal but it is not just about straight bananas and the refugees would still be trying to cross borders regardless. So nobody should count their chickens re exchange rates, things can and do change quickly either way. Britain will do what Rupert Murdoch wants to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Gbye grey sky, Yes definitely the uncertainty, but also the loss of younger workers from the EU who often work harder. Whilst some complain that they are taking their jobs many of these posts remain unfilled without the migrants. Possibility of older people being forced to return to the UK from retirement in Spain France etc if pensions get frozen. This will certainly tie up more of the NHS as their access to health care in EU countries may be restricted. Some of the larger Multinationals reducing their presence in the UK due to access to European markets being reduced or at least requiring more red tape. It may not cause these things to happen but if a referendum votes for an exit I can see a volatile market till at least the exit plans are shown to be viable. Departure from the EU is unlikely to be an overnight operation and I can see many political arguments going on. This also includes the possibility of Scotland voting for independence so they can stay in the EU. The SNP has already said this is a trigger for another vote on independence. We shall see but I can see the pound going either way, but I would be more inclined to think it would go south to start with. However I am not an expert so it is only an opinion. , Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter1 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 (edited) Britain will do what Rupert Murdoch wants to do. Ain't that the truth. As does Australia to an even greater degree. The irony is Rupert is not that popular in the UK after phone hacking etc, but he still seems to be able to steer public opinion using the drip drip method in his press outlets. And cricket is only available on pay TV in the UK due to him. That is totally unAustralian. Edited January 9, 2016 by winter1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Ain't that the truth. As does Australia to an even greater degree.The irony is Rupert is not that popular in the UK after phone hacking etc, but he still seems to be able to steer public opinion using the drip drip method in his press outlets. And cricket is only available on pay TV in the UK due to him. That is totally unAustralian. You can sometimes see free highlights on channel five. But yes, mostly you can't watch UK sports without paying. Even intelligent people fall for his propaganda. I was talking to someone the other day who was spouting a Murdoch theme, and I just asked why? She just looked confused and lost. People don't question. That's the problem. I have no problem with contrary views to mine, as long as people know why they are holding them. But many don't. For many Santa claws is real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest xmas lights Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 "But yes, mostly you can't watch UK sports without paying." ehmm free online streaming with much HD quality. I beg to differ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could we be headed back under 2:1 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Could we be headed back under 2:1 ? Looks like it. Despite China's (relative) woes it appears that the UK's position is looking rocky. With the BofE clearly being pessimistic about the medium term at least and no prospect of any interest rate hike in the next 6 months (at least) sentiment for the GBP can really only get worse in 2016 I feel. But how much worse is the question. We still have capital to move and feeling that we may move some at 2:1 and then review again in 2017 (or sooner if some positives start emerging for the UK economy this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Mind you Australia is likely to have another interest rate cut before June 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looks like it. Despite China's (relative) woes it appears that the UK's position is looking rocky. With the BofE clearly being pessimistic about the medium term at least and no prospect of any interest rate hike in the next 6 months (at least) sentiment for the GBP can really only get worse in 2016 I feel. But how much worse is the question. We still have capital to move and feeling that we may move some at 2:1 and then review again in 2017 (or sooner if some positives start emerging for the UK economy this year. Yeah got very lucky with my rate, thought I had jumped the gun on moving it. Still need to move a bit more so looks like I may park that idea for a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just for interest. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35343792 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Today is the 50th anniversary of the Australian Dollar (or the 50th anniversary of decimalisation as it's being described on the Australian news). The exchange rate when it began was (as they said in the promotional material at the time) exactly $2 to £1. Pretty much the exchange rate today (despite a lot of volatility in the years in between). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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