freebo Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Though i dont think gold will be anywhere near as badly hit as other commodities. 100% Agree, gold isn't really a commodity in the classic sense, it is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Ropey HOFF Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 When the UK went into recession 3 years ago, there was mass unemployment, house prices plummeted and the pound crashed against all major currencies ...... Is there any sign of this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandk Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 So to all those who seem to know their stuff (and thank you for sharing really does help)... We have our visa (yey!) and are hoping to leave July 2013. Hubby is 43 just leaving HM Forces and we were thinking of going to Perth. Lots of reasons but a key one was that we felt he woud be able to mould himself into a job as his skill set is diverse (he is an chartered mech engr, but also munitions trained (bombs not guns!), project manager qualified, etc). The basis of that was that the mining industry would need and welcome more staff. He is not above sleeping on a camp cot for a few more months!! Do you think that we are flawed in our thinking - jobs will in fact start to dry up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petals Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Do not forget about our farmers, they always rescue us when times are hard. The wheat crops have failed and we have lots and lots of the stuff in fact we were in surplus last quarter, not because of mining, because of farming. We forget about the beef farms, the sheep farms, we export all the time, high grade wool, canola and of course wine. Aussies are diverse people and they will turn their hand to something else at the drop of a hat. In a way mining has been the enemy of innovation and its time we went back to this. We saw this week the lady that could see thanks to an Aussie invention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul1977 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 When the UK went into recession 3 years ago, there was mass unemployment, house prices plummeted and the pound crashed against all major currencies ...... Is there any sign of this yet? Hair line cracks starting to appear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VERYSTORMY Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 When the UK went into recession 3 years ago, there was mass unemployment, house prices plummeted and the pound crashed against all major currencies ...... Is there any sign of this yet? Unemployemt figures are out today and expected to show a rise. Tuesday the job advertising figures were out and showed a massive drop in adverts. House price data was out on Tuesday and showed falls. GDP / Economic growth came out yesterday and was down by half. Layoffs across the industry are taking place now. We are disposing of most contractors. BHP did the same last week (nobody knows how many were affected but my guess is between 1500-2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Hard to know where to start with this one Got to love the media.....Hancock apply for an EMA for a minority of workers on a biggish mine development and the media and unions are screeching about "shipping in cheap labour to supply an unsustainable boom"....fast forward 3 months and BHP make a widely trailed decision to postpone one of the larger but more marginal projects and suddenly it's all doom I don't think it's any surprise that the pace of new developments is slowing down - softening commodity prices and sharply rising development costs in Australia over the past few months could have told you that was likely. But it's not like people are actually talking about closing mines (in the main, there are a couple of exceptions but usually where there's IR issues) - so the revenues will still be flowing. And there are still some major new developments in the pipeline, and yet to start. They haven't all been cancelled nor will they all be. Most of the figures that get spouted about in terms of mining are the Capex figures put on developments, and most of this goes to the construction sector, and that sector still can't cope with the amount of work, that's one reason why costs have gone up so much. We do some of this, and we struggle to get enough people in to the more remote sites at any price. That's why we have to "ship in" foreigners - just not enough people with the right skills here. China is still growing, but to a lesser extent and their stock levels of minerals and the raw material produced from them are at pretty high levels, hence a large part of the softening of commodity prices. More of the demand in China and India has a "domestic" (not really domestic, but Asian) driver, they're not nearly as reliant on US and European demand as most people assume. I have some data somewhere if I cba to dig it out. If that means a reduction in the pace of new developments and a slackening of the terms of trade then, frankly, that's a very good thing. The pace in the past few years has been unsustainable hence the cost blowouts and the serious distortion caused in the rest of the economy by the high dollar and the (related) tight-ish monetary policy in relative terms. The economy is very much two-speed and a bit of redressing the balance is required. A bit more long-term thinking is in order I think. There was quite a good article in the Fairfax press today: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/after-the-boom-the-main-game-20120824-24rs4.html making the very valid point that Australia's future lies in its relationship with Asia - which will be the economic centre of the world in pretty short order, no question about that - to a much greater deth that just digging up minerals and flogging them, and therefore some long-term planning and therefore structured policy (what government is supposed to be good at) in support of that should be part of a plan for 50 years hence Plenty of other articles in the SMH website regarding this week's economic news if you're interested in having a poke about. Some good stuff on there I'm not disagreeing with VS's experience, by the way - what he says absolutely rings true, all resources businesses are cyclical and exploration is the first thing on and off the boil, and it moves very fast. I remember being at the start of a big Caspian oil development in 1998 when the oil price plummeted from $40 to below $18 a barrel virtually overnight. We laid off half our staff and had them out of the country within the week when Chevron decided to go on "drip feed" with the development until the price went back north of $30, which fortunately for us it did quite quickly. Nature of the beast Thanks Northshore. A very good analysis. I don't work in mining or oil and gas but have seen exactly the same thing a couple of times in IT. We've had spells where companies I've worked for have had to get contractors on extortionate salaries and then they are the first to go (usually) when the inevitable downturn comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I wrote on another thread that I get the feeling that a few posters are almost gloating at the prospect of Aus going into recession. Hope I'm wrong but there are always a few that come over that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 A question to Northshore or VS (or anyone, just those 2 may know the answer). When I was in Kalgoorlie last year myself and an ex-Aussie Army guy I'd met up there we sitting around discussing economics outside the shop / canteen thing on a BHP site (on our own of course, everyone else had us marked down as the boring bastards). Anyway a guy came over who I'd seen at all the inductions and was obviously one of the bosses. No idea who he was, what he did, how high up he was but he said something very interesting. He said that BHP's record profit that year had mainly come from financial services, not mining. Basically as a large multinational operation they need to hedge against currency fluctuations in order to maintain worldwide operations. But what had once been a means to enable production, and thus profits, was now where most of the profit was coming from. As a result the brighter guys at the very top of the company were looking down on day-to day production as the means of achieving profits. Does that sound at all believable or was he talking nonsense or is there a grain of truth somewhere in there but he was massively overblowing it? If BHP managed to make their record profits from Financial services in the current climate of uncertainty in share markets, fluctuations in exchange rates and most other things financial they are doing something the other financial services sector are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Dont worry. Even if it does fall down around us, there are lots of other countries that are fun to work in. China was amazing, Peru and Chili are great and parts of Africa are great fun I suppose that's OK if you are just chasing the money and not wanting to settle somewhere nice with a family, looking to have a good lifestyle. Would I go to Africa, China, Peru or Chili for 10 times the money I'm on here, personally no. I have a great lifestyle here on the money I'm on. I've got a family, the missus works too, kids are doing well (ones just got into mining on FIFO so I'm hoping he's going to be OK). I wouldn't want to uproot them and go chasing the money. If you are single and looking for an adventure maybe. My cousins husband works on a movable floating rig somewhere. He's been in the oil and gas game for years. Sure, they have loads of money but she hardly sees him. They nearly got divorced a few years ago as she found out he had been having an affair for years. They have a house in France where they catch up often, saves them money on their English tax bill if he's not in the UK for as long apparently. He had a contract in Perth a couple of years ago and we rang him and said come over for a meal on Sunday. We had just got in from Sunday morning at the surf club and the phone rang to say he was "just leaving work and on his way up". He showed up with khaki gear on like dressed for work, had a couple of mobiles on his belt which he had to answer quite a bit. I asked did he work often at weekends and he said just about every one, very rarely had a day off except when Leave came around. Went to the pub with him and my eldest and he commented that I seemed to get on with my boy well. I'd never given it much thought really but said I suppose I do we train together and I've been his footy coach, surf club coach, just thought it was a normal father son relationship though. He has 2 sons, 1 the same age as my eldest, he said the only time they speak to me is when they want money. More to life than having a lot of money I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northshorepom Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 ^That's the resources game all over though, always has been and always will be. It's always boom & bust, and it almost always involves working away and/or in sh**holes Which is why I don't work in O&G any more. From a project development point of view it was brilliant - everyone extremely focused and driven, the best multi-disciplinary environment you could imagine, proper authority to make decisions, clients willing to pay big bonuses to get things finished early, brilliant technology - 15 years later the building and industrial development sectors are only just catching up with what O&G was doing back then - you learnt tons, it was great. But it's a real marriage killer and no good for family life. I did it for 6 or 7 years in my 20s, earnt some good coin and got great experience and contacts, but got out before it became a way of life. No matter how you tried to avoid it, when you were on leave you'd spray money around like water because you could. Flights delayed, so the company has put you up in the Budapest Novotel? Screw that, it's 3km out of town, book yourself into the Intercon at your own expense and hit the girly bars and burn through $1000 in a night. Which is fine if you can get out, but there were WAY too many guys working in that world who had to work in it as they were paying for 2 or 3 divorces and associated families by the time they were 45. So now I do infrastructure and building developments, which by definition are usually centred around cities, so I can have a fixed home base. The bureaucracy is more annoying, the backwardness and mediocrity of some of the market is frustrating, the money's not quite as good. But I'm home every night and it's not exactly taxing. Work life balance, simple as that really I'd love to go back to O&G but it'll be when the wife & kids are sick of the sight of me so a few years yet I hope :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Yes - I agree 100% - but it's also fun tp travel when you're young too, and nice to have a job that will help you do that. I guess when you decide to settle down, you need to get a settle down job as well. I suppose that's OK if you are just chasing the money and not wanting to settle somewhere nice with a family, looking to have a good lifestyle. Would I go to Africa, China, Peru or Chili for 10 times the money I'm on here, personally no. I have a great lifestyle here on the money I'm on. I've got a family, the missus works too, kids are doing well (ones just got into mining on FIFO so I'm hoping he's going to be OK). I wouldn't want to uproot them and go chasing the money. If you are single and looking for an adventure maybe. My cousins husband works on a movable floating rig somewhere. He's been in the oil and gas game for years. Sure, they have loads of money but she hardly sees him. They nearly got divorced a few years ago as she found out he had been having an affair for years. They have a house in France where they catch up often, saves them money on their English tax bill if he's not in the UK for as long apparently. He had a contract in Perth a couple of years ago and we rang him and said come over for a meal on Sunday. We had just got in from Sunday morning at the surf club and the phone rang to say he was "just leaving work and on his way up". He showed up with khaki gear on like dressed for work, had a couple of mobiles on his belt which he had to answer quite a bit. I asked did he work often at weekends and he said just about every one, very rarely had a day off except when Leave came around. Went to the pub with him and my eldest and he commented that I seemed to get on with my boy well. I'd never given it much thought really but said I suppose I do we train together and I've been his footy coach, surf club coach, just thought it was a normal father son relationship though. He has 2 sons, 1 the same age as my eldest, he said the only time they speak to me is when they want money. More to life than having a lot of money I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 ^That's the resources game all over though, always has been and always will be. It's always boom & bust, and it almost always involves working away and/or in sh**holes Which is why I don't work in O&G any more. From a project development point of view it was brilliant - everyone extremely focused and driven, the best multi-disciplinary environment you could imagine, proper authority to make decisions, clients willing to pay big bonuses to get things finished early, brilliant technology - 15 years later the building and industrial development sectors are only just catching up with what O&G was doing back then - you learnt tons, it was great. But it's a real marriage killer and no good for family life. I did it for 6 or 7 years in my 20s, earnt some good coin and got great experience and contacts, but got out before it became a way of life. No matter how you tried to avoid it, when you were on leave you'd spray money around like water because you could. Flights delayed, so the company has put you up in the Budapest Novotel? Screw that, it's 3km out of town, book yourself into the Intercon at your own expense and hit the girly bars and burn through $1000 in a night. Which is fine if you can get out, but there were WAY too many guys working in that world who had to work in it as they were paying for 2 or 3 divorces and associated families by the time they were 45. So now I do infrastructure and building developments, which by definition are usually centred around cities, so I can have a fixed home base. The bureaucracy is more annoying, the backwardness and mediocrity of some of the market is frustrating, the money's not quite as good. But I'm home every night and it's not exactly taxing. Work life balance, simple as that really I'd love to go back to O&G but it'll be when the wife & kids are sick of the sight of me so a few years yet I hope :-) I have a few friends in Perth who are in oil and gas and have managed to get full time jobs in Perth. Admittedly they have to travel sometimes but so do I. The odd week or 2 away isn't too bad though and it's only interstate for me. One of my friends works for Inpex and has to go to Japan quite often. He's in Perth most of the time though and he got poached from Woodside, so I'm guessing he's on pretty good money. If you can manage to get something like that it's probably the best of both worlds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Cooling in China, whose economy grew 7.6 percent in the second quarter of this year, its slowest pace in more than three years, and ongoing turbulence in Europe saw BHP's annual profit dive 35 percent to US$15.42 billion. BHP could stand a bit of a downturn with profits like this surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VERYSTORMY Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 BHP could stand a bit of a downturn with profits like this surely. They can stand it, but thats not the issue. The issue as they will see it is to maximise profit. The other issue is that mines always try to mine as much as possible of the best grade as possible when the price is good. When the price is poor you cut it down in order to retain ore to sell when the price increases. Its also not really their option. They have a legal and moral obligation to maximise profits for shareholders. If that means drastic cuts, then so be it. They will be a bit more cautios than they were in 2008 as they paid dear for moving to quick with redundancies. Hence why upto now they have only slashed contractors. But they will be already doing the surveys of who and when of staff that can go first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The mines in the other countries mentioned would be just as under pressure though surely. If it's the price of iron ore that's affecting Australia it's affecting everyone else the same. I know the pay for workers is going to be more here but there are a lot of hidden costs doing business in most of the other countries. Bribes, physical protection for workers, living and working for qualified people in a possibly not nice environment. No doubt to move to Africa or somewhere like that the trained and qualified people would want at least as much as working here wouldn't they? Kind of defeats the argument about labour costs then too. I know Gina Reinhart said the workers will work for $2 for a 12 hour shift but that's just the African miners, not the qualified personnel who are needed to complete operations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Ropey HOFF Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Hair line cracks starting to appear.. Unemployment has just dropped in Australia to just 5.1% are you sure you don't need to go to Specsavers, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johndoe Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Unemployment has just dropped in Australia to just 5.1% are you sure you don't need to go to Specsavers, lol. Only in Oz do they fudge the figures Jim...............you should know that by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Petals Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The figures are not fudged. However they may not be accurate due to the fact that a lot of people do not register for unemployment. If one person in the family is working they would not get the dole so they do not register at Centrelink. To get counted have to make sure you apply for dole. My friend and I did it many many years ago when our children were young because we wanted to be counted even though we were entitled to no assistance. Casual and underemployed are also not counted but this would be the same in most countries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 It's often very hard to get the dole when you contract - especially if you use a company - becasue strictly speaking you are still employed, you're just not earning any money. To dismiss yourself and close down the company is expensive and has implications if you want a mortgage etc, so it's not something you would do lightly. You could sack 10,000 contractors and not affect the employment figures. Also many on temporary visas will probably not even rate in the statistics. Until they start laying off permanent employees - I wouldn't expect the figures to change. Even then if you get a good redundancy package it is fairly pointless applying for the dole, as you can't hide it from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VERYSTORMY Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The mines in the other countries mentioned would be just as under pressure though surely. If it's the price of iron ore that's affecting Australia it's affecting everyone else the same. I know the pay for workers is going to be more here but there are a lot of hidden costs doing business in most of the other countries. Bribes, physical protection for workers, living and working for qualified people in a possibly not nice environment. No doubt to move to Africa or somewhere like that the trained and qualified people would want at least as much as working here wouldn't they? Kind of defeats the argument about labour costs then too. I know Gina Reinhart said the workers will work for $2 for a 12 hour shift but that's just the African miners, not the qualified personnel who are needed to complete operations. The biggest costs in mining iron ore are trucks. The cost of a truck here in WA for a CAT is about $2.2 million. The cost in Zambia is $800k. Tyres are a massive cost and are $50k a pop in Oz. In Ghana they are $30k. Most of the proffessionals in Africa and Asia are UK guys - all the geologists an engineers. However, they dont earn as much as in Oz. They dont need to as UK tax law means they are tax free. So, when i was fifo to Africa, i was paid $40k a year less than here, but actually had about the same in the bank each month. The the non proffessionals are locals. I dont though know anywhere that locals earn $2. The cheapest is the DRC where i worked recently and we paid about $8k a year for a truckie. But that is a big saving against $100k a year in Oz. The ratio is similar for things like electricians and welders (who by the way i have found do a better job) In most of Africa, there is little need for security. At least no more than i have on site here in WA. Only exception was the DRC. But the economics even with a large security force was still well in the favour of the DRC. As for environment. It depends a lot where you are. The best site i have ever come across, anywhere in the world is Barricks site in Zambia. In most of the mines you cant really tell that you arent in Oz. Its desert and hot with a big hole in the ground. The accomdation is identical and even the mess is catered by ESS who cater for most Oz mines and the menu identical as they provide the same menu all over the world. The advantage is that when you fly home, you can instead normally elect to fly anywhere in the world. For example, i have a couple of mates in Zambia who are today taking their break in Namibia to go on a elephant safari. Another had his last break in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Six it Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 well a mate of mine who is a permie for FMG at the solomon mine has just been made redundant... not good anyone need a hydrogeologist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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