Are house prices set to tumble in Oz?

[NZStidz]

I take on board what you are saying pablo and we have thought about a smaller place, 3 bedrooms not as plush as we would like it, but these houses are still around the $400.000 mark and we would still need a $100,000 mortgage for something that we wouldn't be really excited about, i sound selfish i know, but the dream move to Australia is what we want, nothing less, being greedy i know.

 

Could you rent an apartment or smaller townhouse and tuck your lovely savings away in a high interest as a pension? The interest would probably pay for the rent? I'm no economist but it might work?

[pablo]

Could you rent an apartment or smaller townhouse and tuck your lovely savings away in a high interest as a pension? The interest would probably pay for the rent? I'm no economist but it might work?

 

Jim wont do that Stidz,he wants it ALL!!!!!"GRACELANDS" by the sea:biglaugh:,seriously tho,he wont do that,i know jim well from PIO,he wants the dream lifestyle or he wont go i dont think

[tracy123]

Somethings just take time! Most of us want everything today. Anything worth working towards is a much better prize than something just given.

[Guest The Ropey HOFF]

Jim wont do that Stidz,he wants it ALL!!!!!"GRACELANDS" by the sea:biglaugh:,seriously tho,he wont do that,i know jim well from PIO,he wants the dream lifestyle or he wont go i dont think

 

 

Your right pablo

 

i'm not a snob, in fact i am proud to be a working class bloke, brought up on a run down council estate, but 40 years later people have alot more, the wife and i have worked for 30 years to get where we have and having tasted what oz life can be like, we want what we could afford 18 months ago. Our finances haven't changed, its the exchange rate, due to Australia doing so well and the uk having been in a long deep recession. I fear it will be ALL or NOTHING, to get the wife on board and fingers crossed, hopefully the uk will pick up in the next 12 months or so and the exchange rate reflects this. Damn you Australia, why are you doing so well?

[pablo]

Hope the rate picks up meself jim,dont forget we started all this visa malarkey in 07 ourselves,when the rate was much better,but i just dont hold out much hope of a big improvement tbh,i just want to get over there asap and find out if its for us,cba waiting for the rate to pick up,no pockets in a shroud an all that mate,lifes for living,not waiting,just wish this bleedin hse would sell!!!!!!

[tracy123]

Your right pablo

 

i'm not a snob, in fact i am proud to be a working class bloke, brought up on a run down council estate, but 40 years later people have alot more, the wife and i have worked for 30 years to get where we have and having tasted what oz life can be like, we want what we could afford 18 months ago. Our finances haven't changed, its the exchange rate, due to Australia doing so well and the uk having been in a long deep recession. I fear it will be ALL or NOTHING, to get the wife on board and fingers crossed, hopefully the uk will pick up in the next 12 months or so and the exchange rate reflects this. Damn you Australia, why are you doing so well?

 

Thing is Jim.....

 

Now this is all pie in the sky as neither of us have jobs (I wont have a problem myself) but we have worked out that we could borrow over $1,000,000 to buy a house or I could borrow enough to buy in a cheap neighbourhood and pay the house off in 3 years. Now the cheaper house wont be as nice or in one of the nicest areas etc, but in 3 years we can be enjoying every weekend having plenty of holidays etc or we could be locked in for another 22 years paying for a very nice house.

A house is somewhere to lay your head not live your life

[Toolbox]

Somethings just take time! Most of us want everything today. Anything worth working towards is a much better prize than something just given.

 

 

For god's sake Geoff will you just stop talking so much sense:mad: I find myself agreeing with everything you say just lately:huh:

I hope this dose't mean i'm turning into one of those -------------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LOONEYS :goofy::wacko:

[Joebloggs]

Are you being deliberately obtuse? My point is, if you can't afford it, LOOK SOMEWHERE ELSE. My old house in the UK was a small 2 bed end terrace in Surrey which sold in 2002 for 160k GBP. is now on the market for 275k GBP - so heaven knows where the house you keep using as an example is.

 

Sydney is not the be all and end all. Incase you didn't know there are still many other parts of Australia which would all give a different lifestyle to the one you could have in Liverpool.

 

I am not sure what point you are trying to make. Emigrating is not a right, it's a privilege. If you can't afford it, you can't do it. Simple as that.

 

No I am pointing out facts and examples since I actually live in Sydney, not everyone who who is emigrating is from Surrey. When was the last time you seen someone on PIO ask whats Coonable like? or whats nice suburbs around Albury? or Is Mt. Druitt good for families?

 

Most people bang on about The Northern Beaches, the North Shore & Sutherland shire, you can get a nice 3 BR in Broken Hill for $160K.

 

Thats my point.

[NZStidz]

No I am pointing out facts and examples since I actually live in Sydney, not everyone who who is emigrating is from Surrey. When was the last time you seen someone on PIO ask whats Coonable like? or whats nice suburbs around Albury? or Is Mt. Druitt good for families?

 

Most people bang on about The Northern Beaches, the North Shore & Sutherland shire, you can get a nice 3 BR in Broken Hill for $160K.

 

Thats my point.

 

 

I'm emigrating from New Zealand, where I have lived for 8 years, prior to that was in Australia for 2 years and California for 4 years. Surrey was a long time ago. My point seems to be the same as yours: if you can't afford it, look elsewhere. Don't expect to go from a crappy area in one country to paradise in another, it doesn't work like that.

 

I honestly don't know why I let people like you wind me up *shakes head* still, I guess that's what makes you people tick.

[Joebloggs]

I'm emigrating from New Zealand, where I have lived for 8 years, prior to that was in Australia for 2 years and California for 4 years. Surrey was a long time ago. My point seems to be the same as yours: if you can't afford it, look elsewhere. Don't expect to go from a crappy area in one country to paradise in another, it doesn't work like that.

 

I honestly don't know why I let people like you wind me up *shakes head* still, I guess that's what makes you people tick.

 

Can't think why you think I was winding you up? I presented similar houses (ie: 3 BR ) all of which were in 1st world countries.

 

You were the one who started slating Liverpool as being crap.

[carpetbelly]

 

'ey 'ey, calm down...

 

Actually, all this talk of Liverpool has reminded me how much I do miss it. Might be a while before I get to go back to Anfield now

[NZStidz]

Actually it was someone else who said that the property you chose was in a high crime area.

[Paul1Perth]

Unemployment was at 5% when the bubble burst in Ireland..and not till then did unemployment rise..classic bubble behaviour its never the other way round...www.bubblepedia.net.au !!:jiggy:

 

That was an interesting article. At least the Irish won't be able to blame the English for their woes this time as it's the EU that's bailing them out. They probably still will though.

 

Interesting that the investment that brought about the boom times was IT and high end technology (Dell, Google etc.). This sector has always been boom or bust unfortunately. The Googles of this world love to show off their flash offices and try and portray the company as the best place in the world to work. They are no different to any other company when it gets tough and have no more feelings for their employees than any other. It's just business to them and if they can do things cheaper in China, they will. No matter that it costs 1000's of jobs in Ireland.

 

At least the boom here is due to oil, gas and mining. A lot more stable income source. Couple that with a lack of workers, trained or willing to do the manual type and skilled type of work required.

 

I'm sure a lot of Irish and other nationalities will be welcome here, with the right skill set.

[Paul1Perth]

I suppose it is handy carpet,but believe me its a chore mate,standing downstairs in here and then looking up to the trusses of the hse and realising what i had ahead was enuf to reach for the valium,but all the joinery,tiling,new ceilings,concrete+timber floors ,landscaping,kitchen units etc etc i done myself,the only things i paid for was the wiring that a mate done £800,plumbing with combi boiler etc £1,000,and plastering approx£1,000,because i'l only take on patch plastering,not a full hse,anyway it worked out,the value is more than dbl now,and that includes taking out a good few quid for holidays+car etc,im FAR from rich btw!!!! but like i say we have taken a fair few bob out of the hse and its still worth at least dbl,so i suppose being a builder is handy,chore tho!

BTW that was the only other thing i was "debating" with myself...buying a plot and building my own hse in oz,but do i want the hassle.........MMMMmmmm:radar:probs not.

 

I wouldn't totally dismiss the ides of buying a plot and building mate. There are a few different options here and a lot of land to be had. Big choice of areas and different packages put together.

 

You could even be an owner builder where you get the land sorted, get a design for a house which you like and then do a lot of the work yourself with subbies brought in to do what you can't. I've seen a few posts on here that go on about the quality of building with no bricks in sight. It's a lot different in WA and Perth with most houses being double brick and tile roofs (although colourbond is getting popular for roofing).

 

I read an article in the local paper titled "Perth caught in Europe's tide".

Basically said that there was a lot of interest from new migrants coming in around Perths coastal suburbs. This interest has really declined in the past couple of years, especially for homes priced above $1,000,000.

 

Latest figures on emigration were WA's population grew by 2.3% well above the national growth rate of 1.8%. However, the nuber of migrants coming into the state has dropped.

Some 7,622 overseas migrants moved to WA which was a drop of nearly half compared to the March quarter 2009 when 13,448 came to the state.

 

The conclusion was while the outlook for WA property is still positive, sellers of more expensive properties have to be more pragmatic if they wanted to close a sale.

 

There are a lot more properties on the market than I've seen for a long time around Perth. The prices haven't dropped much yet tbh but if immigration stays at low figures I can't see how the prices can be maintained.

 

On the other side of the coin though is the predicted boom in big projects in WA which means we will need a big influx of workers. Some of these will be from interstate but a lot are going to be needed. The mining, oil and gas industries pay big money so it's a strange old place we live in pabs. A one off in the world I reckon.

 

I keep telling my 21 year old to go and get some of the big money on the mines whilst he's young and it's there. He's just finished his electrical apprenticeship and has a few contacts on the mines. I think he is having too good a time at the moment though as he has a pretty well paid job in Perth with a van thrown in, a good bunch of mates and likes his weekends out in town.

[Paul1Perth]

Right now as always I am going to go with my personal experience because I am lousy at maths and cant do the sums but:

 

We could not afford the house we are renting at the moment if we were to try and buy it. We wouldnt be able to borrow the amount of money that it would take to buy it and even if we did we couldnt afford to pay it back.

 

Now we can afford the rent quite comfortably and we dont HAVE to pay anything other than electric and gas on top. Which means we can live in a lovely house in a lovely area which if we were to buy would mean we would have to move from the area just to rent from the bank for the next 25 years. The decorations are to my taste so no issue there.

 

I understand the need to buy as I had it in the UK but really it doesnt feel so necessary here. Just my experiences as I said I am not a maths person. We have no debt at all for anything whatsover and it means we sleep very comfortably :wubclub:

 

Good post.

Another upside to renting is you know exactly how much your outgoings are. You can budget to save some money for something special. If you really like the area you are in what's the point of moving to somewhere you don't really like, just to get on the housing ladder? May as well enjoy it, life is too short and there are a lot of nice areas where you can have a great lifestyle in and around Perth.

 

You could move away from the coast a bit and afford something but your lifestyle would then change and you may not even like Perth anymore. You may even start thinking "this is not what I came for".

 

We were lucky when we bought our property but even then we were worried that we wouldn't be able to afford it. How times change. we got it for about $140,000 and it's now worth around $750,000. Was a lot more at the peak of the price hike but prices have dropped back a bit.

 

Location is a big thing anywhere and if you can possibly afford a good suburb (people around Perth will know what I mean) these tend to hold the value more. There are a lot of new built "estates" on the fringes of Perth and Joondalup that will have suffered a bigger drop than most. You might be able to find a decent deal as there are a lot for sale.

[Paul1Perth]

You mean like a deflation? Would have to agree that probably what I think will happen a mixture of a catch up/market correction.

 

I know plenty of Aussie friends who are in their 20's & 30's and are not struggling at all in the housing in Sydney, their parents bought a few properties in the 80's & early 90's when it was still possible to buy something for 5 figures. Funny they don't say their folks just give them a house but they now have a home without much of a hit on the financial situation so you would have to assume the place is fully paid out or comes with a very low homeloan attached.

 

Certainly if there is a property crash it will not be uniform across the nation might be 10% in one area and 2% in another.

 

First places to be hit are those sleepy little coastal towns where the city slickers own a holiday home, any sign of a crisis and every second house will be up for sale as they are usually only used at the weekend and everyone will be wanting to protect their main assets in the city.

 

Even if the was a 10% crash on a $800K house is now worth $720K... is this really going make it more affordable? Like it might be a difference of $25 a week on a homeloan.

 

I think for some people its wishful thinking.

 

Spot on here. The prices of houses down the South of WA Dunsborough, Margaret River etc. Took a bigger hit than most. They were really over inflated though and are just holiday towns. If you have some spare cash around you might get a decent buy. They are still way too much for my liking though.

[Paul1Perth]

Thing is Jim.....

 

Now this is all pie in the sky as neither of us have jobs (I wont have a problem myself) but we have worked out that we could borrow over $1,000,000 to buy a house or I could borrow enough to buy in a cheap neighbourhood and pay the house off in 3 years. Now the cheaper house wont be as nice or in one of the nicest areas etc, but in 3 years we can be enjoying every weekend having plenty of holidays etc or we could be locked in for another 22 years paying for a very nice house.

A house is somewhere to lay your head not live your life

 

But if the expensive house is in a great suburb where you've wanted to live for ages (near the beach for example, you would get a nice one right on the front for $1,000,000) this could really affect your lifestyle.

 

We live 2 mins from the beach by car and can walk there in 10. Bike paths, cafes, surf club, free parking (as at all Perth beaches), park with free barbeques and the use of gym and equipment in the surf club, all for free once you've joined. You can see how it can affect your lifestyle. We don't have to wait for the weekend and I can get up and have a paddle and a cup of coffee with mates, at a beachside restaurant, before going to work (and do most mornings). We can be down there at night too as there is usually something going off from one of the many training groups.

 

If you went for the cheaper option you might be out the back of Wanneroo or at the Vines. To me these places are miles from nowhere, don't have much infrastructure round them and people have to get the car out to go shopping, take the kids to school and it's a big enough trip to the beach to make it not worth going in the week and becomes a special treat at weekends.

 

The extra money you would be spending on your mortgage could be well worth it in your lifestyle choice. The $1,000,000 house would more than likely be worth say $1,500,000 in 5 years say (that's if they go up and I am only guessing here, they could just as easily come down). The point is though that you would save money if everything you like is on your doorstep, you are in a good neighbourhood and long term outlook on the price would be better than the cheaper option.

 

We have had a few friends who moved out of our area further up the coast thinking they would be able to make a killing and move back. It's not panned out that way and now they can't afford to move back. We have another couple of friends who had a house in our area, tried the move up the coast, didn't like the area they moved to, tried to get back and couldn't afford it so now rent a house with a pool back in same suburb they moved from 10 years ago. Simply because the lifestyle that goes along with the place is so much better.

So it's more than just a place to lay your head and can seriously affect your life. In fact it could be the difference between "living the dream" and thinking this is just as bad as what I moved from in the UK.

 

I know the beach suburbs aren't for everyone but it's certainly attractive for some, otherwise they wouldn't be so expensive and hold their price so well.

[tracy123]

While I agree with you Paul, i think if you use a huge chunk of your wages for a house you are also stuck with both parties requiring to work, and that can put a whole lot of strain on a relationship if one person losses their job, want to have another child etc what happens then?

each to their own, I guess living in Melbourne I will have a greater freedom to choose an area that ticks all the boxes. I can live 45 minutes away from the cbd, 10 minutes away from the beach, the kids can walk to school, bike paths (not as nice as riding along the beach I'm sure) shops within handy reach and it won't cost the earth. That means I then have more money to spend going away and doing other things.

 

I think from reading your posts that you enjoy the beach and a lot of your activities revolve around the beach, so it would make sense to live as close as you can.

myself I like the idea of jumping in the car and making a day of it, to me it makes me feel that we have been out, when you can do it every day, I think it losses some of the magic.

[robfromdublin]

That was an interesting article. At least the Irish won't be able to blame the English for their woes this time as it's the EU that's bailing them out. They probably still will though.

 

Interesting that the investment that brought about the boom times was IT and high end technology (Dell, Google etc.). This sector has always been boom or bust unfortunately. The Googles of this world love to show off their flash offices and try and portray the company as the best place in the world to work. They are no different to any other company when it gets tough and have no more feelings for their employees than any other. It's just business to them and if they can do things cheaper in China, they will. No matter that it costs 1000's of jobs in Ireland.

 

At least the boom here is due to oil, gas and mining. A lot more stable income source. Couple that with a lack of workers, trained or willing to do the manual type and skilled type of work required.

 

I'm sure a lot of Irish and other nationalities will be welcome here, with the right skill set.

 

Don't really want to drag the thread further off topic (supposed to be about Oz house prices!) but I just want to point out that your commentary on Ireland is half-truth at best.

 

Tech companies like Google require much more than just cheap labour: highly educated workforce, excellent infrastructure, open economy, supportive government. They are not a call centre company that require none of that (except maybe good infrastructure). In fact, the current problems in Ireland mean that the country is becoming more competitive, not less. Tech companies had nothing to do with the GFC or Ireland's problems. Thank god they're there frankly!

 

Also, the boom was down to construction mostly, not IT as you claim. Large tech companies are an important part of the economy but so are pharmaceuticals and biotech companies, as well as agriculture and fisheries. Those are primary industries that are much more recession-proof than IT or finance.

 

And as for the Irish blaming the English for their woes? Are you really living in the 1920s? Cop yourself on.

[Paul1Perth]

Don't really want to drag the thread further off topic (supposed to be about Oz house prices!) but I just want to point out that your commentary on Ireland is half-truth at best.

 

Tech companies like Google require much more than just cheap labour: highly educated workforce, excellent infrastructure, open economy, supportive government. They are not a call centre company that require none of that (except maybe good infrastructure). In fact, the current problems in Ireland mean that the country is becoming more competitive, not less. Tech companies had nothing to do with the GFC or Ireland's problems. Thank god they're there frankly!

 

Also, the boom was down to construction mostly, not IT as you claim. Large tech companies are an important part of the economy but so are pharmaceuticals and biotech companies, as well as agriculture and fisheries. Those are primary industries that are much more recession-proof than IT or finance.

 

And as for the Irish blaming the English for their woes? Are you really living in the 1920s? Cop yourself on.

 

I got the info about Ireland from the article in one of the other posts on the thread. So my info was only from that one source which seemed to suggest that a lot of the boom was due to the IT companies. Working in IT myself I know how they try and make out they care about their employees more than a construction company (for example) but I've found when the going gets tough they are just as quick to lay people off as anywhere else.

 

And the Irish complaining about the English bit. I've often thought that a lot of people need to leave the 1920's behind them and move on, just like you. I've worked with a lot of Irish over the years, mostly on pipeline testing in the UK and it's surprising what you hear after a few beers.

[pablo]

Must admit i thought the irish boom was down to construction,reason being loads of my mates went over there roofing,bricklaying etc,top money to be had there at the time,so that was the impression i got tbh.

Ive done a lot of work for murphys civil engineering(northern+southern depts),about to do some more after crimbo on tunnel repairs(railway section),ive never had any bad words re the english tbh,i can only speak as i find,ive had much less sarcasm over where im from off the irish than i have off some people from various other parts of england.

Im sure ireland will eventually recover just as britain will,things are cyclical to an extent arent they?

[rockola57]

Going back a tad,where did,and why did Liverpool ever get cited as an example of all that is undesirable?That City is one of the finest and has much more to offer than many others in the UK.If you are influenced by the usual Media diatribe about this great City,then perhaps it is you who has a problem.Like all Big Cities in the UK Liverpool has it's unsavory elements,but it also has some of the finest historical buildings in the world,a great seafaring history and many affluent suburbs,not to mention the thousands of good upstanding citizens.So please refrain from throwing Liverpool's name in to the hat just because it's the fashionable thing to do these days:wacko:Theres plenty more crime and run down Shiitholes in London,Manchester,Birmingham and Newcastle etc you know,so lay off Liverpool!:yes:

[pablo]

Going back a tad,where did,and why did Liverpool ever get cited as an example of all that is undesirable?That City is one of the finest and has much more to offer than many others in the UK.If you are influenced by the usual Media diatribe about this great City,then perhaps it is you who has a problem.Like all Big Cities in the UK Liverpool has it's unsavory elements,but it also has some of the finest historical buildings in the world,a great seafaring history and many affluent suburbs,not to mention the thousands of good upstanding citizens.So please refrain from throwing Liverpool's name in to the hat just because it's the fashionable thing to do these days:wacko:Theres plenty more crime and run down Shiitholes in London,Manchester,Birmingham and Newcastle etc you know,so lay off Liverpool!:yes:

IS rite lar:wink::biglaugh:

[tracy123]

Going back a tad,where did,and why did Liverpool ever get cited as an example of all that is undesirable?That City is one of the finest and has much more to offer than many others in the UK.If you are influenced by the usual Media diatribe about this great City,then perhaps it is you who has a problem.Like all Big Cities in the UK Liverpool has it's unsavory elements,but it also has some of the finest historical buildings in the world,a great seafaring history and many affluent suburbs,not to mention the thousands of good upstanding citizens.So please refrain from throwing Liverpool's name in to the hat just because it's the fashionable thing to do these days:wacko:Theres plenty more crime and run down Shiitholes in London,Manchester,Birmingham and Newcastle etc you know,so lay off Liverpool!:yes:

 

I think it was Liverpool nsw?

[pablo]

I think it was Liverpool nsw?

 

Dont know if your messing about or what geoff tbh? but it was a hse in the deysbrook area of lpool mate,estate agents have it as west derby(better area)