Will the UK Recover From Financial Decline ?

[Sydney]

I was wondering what others thought the long term effect of the last couple of years will have on the future for the UK financially and socially. As we all know the UK has been hit particularly hard during the financial crisis.

 

#The huge and increasing debt that will have to be serviced.

#The quantative easing by the BOE, i.e. printing money.

#The downgrading of the country's financial rating.

# Massive growth in unemployment.

#Sterling down 20% against the $US over the last two weeks with more reductions forecast.

 

Lots of stats coming from the UK causing food for thought about the country's ability to recover in the near to medium term, and suggesting some desperate measures to come.

 

From the Oz point of view the currency rates are great for a holiday, but I think it will be a long time before the UK improves from it's present situation.

 

Anyone presently living in the UK who would like to give their views ?

[Sids Dad]

Well as we are in the process of packing, getting quotes for shipping etc., it's constantly on my mind. There is just no way that I can transfer funds at these rates. To me having to wait so long to sell the house has effected my whole financial standing. The house was up for sale just when the credit crunch came to bear therefore I have lost nearly 50K on the sale. On top of that the rate that i was anticipating was somewhere around 2.5. Fat chance for at least 18 months to 2 years methinks.

However the train is rolling and we cannot look back now, luckily I'm still working and I will be able to park the house money somewhere for a while in the hope that it recovers. Just means renting instead of buying for a bit.

[bunbury61]

I was wondering what others thought the long term effect of the last couple of years will have on the future for the UK financially and socially. As we all know the UK has been hit particularly hard during the financial crisis.

 

#The huge and increasing debt that will have to be serviced.

#The quantative easing by the BOE, i.e. printing money.

#The downgrading of the country's financial rating.

# Massive growth in unemployment.

#Sterling down 20% against the $US over the last two weeks with more reductions forecast.

 

Lots of stats coming from the UK causing food for thought about the country's ability to recover in the near to medium term, and suggesting some desperate measures to come.

 

From the Oz point of view the currency rates are great for a holiday, but I think it will be a long time before the UK improves from it's present situation.

 

Anyone presently living in the UK who would like to give their views ?

 

Dont know mate .....all the lads still get in the pub ......all working ......not 6 months in front as before.....but all still working.

The pub will be rammed full tonight ( friday ) and tomorrow (saturday)

Some people i know are stacked out........the U.K goes on , always has,always will.

The English press love a bit of "doom and gloom".

Economy has contracted less than expected.......life goes on ......

[bunbury61]

I was wondering what others thought the long term effect of the last couple of years will have on the future for the UK financially and socially. As we all know the UK has been hit particularly hard during the financial crisis.

 

#The huge and increasing debt that will have to be serviced.

#The quantative easing by the BOE, i.e. printing money.

#The downgrading of the country's financial rating.

# Massive growth in unemployment.

#Sterling down 20% against the $US over the last two weeks with more reductions forecast.

 

Lots of stats coming from the UK causing food for thought about the country's ability to recover in the near to medium term, and suggesting some desperate measures to come.

 

From the Oz point of view the currency rates are great for a holiday, but I think it will be a long time before the UK improves from it's present situation.

 

Anyone presently living in the UK who would like to give their views ?

 

PS cant be all bad - 2 million brits .......yes 2 MILLLION have flown abroad for holidays this weekend......our dramatic decline will have to wait until they get back LOL

[KIRK AND CO]

My oneman band buisiness has recorded a 25% increase in turnover this year plus friends in different trades turning work down as only so many hours in the day.

[Sydney]

Sounds like all's well and nothing to worry about. Amazing what you read in the press.

[Mike@Bonbeach]

Don't really understand all the economics about this "worldwide recession", but what I have noticed is that here in Au they seem to grab every little bit of good news whereas in the UK (BBC website) they seem to grab and publicise every bit of bad news.

Mike

[Guest fatpom]

Don't really understand all the economics about this "worldwide recession", but what I have noticed is that here in Au they seem to grab every little bit of good news whereas in the UK (BBC website) they seem to grab and publicise every bit of bad news.

Mike

 

Hmmm. Maybe your right? But which bit of self delusion is the more dangerous???? :smile:

[Guest guest30038]

Hmmm. Maybe your right? But which bit of self delusion is the more dangerous???? :smile:

 

You can argue both, but seeing as the main obstacle to recovery seems to be lack of confidence in the markets, I would think that talking things down would only exacerbate the situation..............but then again, I don't have a doctorate in economics :laugh:

 

kev

[Sydney]

Don't really understand all the economics about this "worldwide recession", but what I have noticed is that here in Au they seem to grab every little bit of good news whereas in the UK (BBC website) they seem to grab and publicise every bit of bad news.

Mike

 

Have to disagree there Mike and Connie. The Oz press has printed a fair bit of negativity over the last two years about our economy over here, and I don't think we're out of the woods by a long way, but the economic data, for the UK, (not necessarilly from the UK), is quite negative, and the recent downgrading of their financial status isn't just mischevious journalism. I'm quite concerned for the UK to be honest, and can't see how they'll recover from such increases in debt that won't be repaid in our lifetime. My original question was to hear the views of UK residents on what's to come, and I hope someone can add something. I don't think the occasional full pub, and a couple of million Poms going on holiday is indicative of how things are. I hear 50 pubs a week are going out of business, and credit card vacations aren't unusual.

[bunbury61]

Sounds like all's well and nothing to worry about. Amazing what you read in the press.

 

No , all is not well. .....its not perfect,we are in a recession here. But its strange ,everyone i speak to has work ,

There isnt any rioting ,we are not starving to death,the shops are busy .

My daughter has a part time job in Argos ( whilst shes at college}.

She says a lot of people are now paying with cash, they are starting to correct their spending habits and pay off their debt.

I have a mate who is a bank manager. He told me the same,people are looking to pay off,instead of borrow.

[Bod]

This Country needs to re-invent it's self. How I don't know

(Well I have my Ideas but I'm only a Plumber so I wont bore you with them).

I'm sure the Gov are kepping the pound down low on purpose to boost exports, so I don't think no time in the near future will it rise against the Aussie $. This can be a good thing for the country as it makes goods produced abroud more exspansive and good's produced hear more competative. Tourisim will thrive. renewable energies we can lead play a leading part in.

 

The one thing we thought we could rely on is the Finacial market but those greedy. knobs have Fncked that up.

 

I do not believe we will every be the same but we will take more of a back seat and a balance will be found (I Hope)

 

 

Australia has a great future but has water problems, and it's boring. But if they can get over these things the world is it's morton Bay Bug.

[Guest Andy]

I think we are currently in a no mans land economically with things just bumbling along, the real crunch will hit when the tories come to power next spring and have to set about trying to pay off some of our debt. Cameron has already more than hinted at income tax increases as the obvious place to make a start. Also interest rates can only go one way and that is not down so when that happens we will all have less money in our pockets and that will also have a big affect. I am not trying to be to negative but do feel we are not out of the woods by any means.

[sgperry]

I've lived in London for 20 years and have to say things aren't as good as they were 5 - 10 years ago. But as people are saying, there don't seem to be bread queues, the pubs and shops are busy, life is going on. Sure, some folks are losing their jobs - but it really depends on the sector. I work in the IT sector and my colleagues and I tend to get at least a couple of calls a week from agencies, so there is definitely work around still.

 

And having a mortgage, I am loving the fact that interest rates are around 1% or even less. If you have a good job here, now is definitely the time to be thinking about buying a house.

 

I think the bigger impact is on the UK's position v other countries - e.g. impact on exchange rates probably being the main one for many of us. I remember when I first came over here, the Aussie dollar was worth about 39p or so. Didn't stop me coming over, though - because I was coming over for reasons other than financial.

 

And for me personally, when it's all said and done, London has been very good to me. I came over here with a backpack and around 200 quid in my pocket. I'll certainly be leaving with a lot more - not as much as I'd have done had I left 3 years ago, but that's the luck of the draw.

 

Life goes on. Again, I'm leaving for reasons other than financial. I'll make the most of what I end up taking over.

 

The exchange rate will improve again over time - a fact often not reported is that the UK's assets well exceed its debt, though not by as much as they have in the past. Give it 5 years I say, and the pound will be stronger again.

 

The FTSE is rising, so someone out there has confidence in UK companies returning to profitability at some point.

[Guest topscot]

The UK is in serious trouble with an ever growing population and an ever increasing debt the recession can only get worse. Unemployment is growing, figures out this week say over 6 million Brits are on benefits which works out the goverment is paying out more than they can afford. The traditional industries are all gone and half of school leavers are not getting jobs. The future for kids here in the UK is bleak, it is OK saying i have still got a job so things are good but it is the kids that this recession will hit both now and in the future. Most major companies have job freezes on and this will continue for the forseeable future

[Becki]

I think things are looking alot more positive now but no way are we out of the woods, somethings got to give. Since March the FTSE has climbed by nearly 30% which is a huge increase, house prices have risen by 4% this month alone but unemployment is high.

 

Only this week my Oh was told he's getting made redundant but has already had about 3 job offers! There are definitely jobs out there dependant on what work you do and due to the recession alot of eastern Europeans have returned home giving us more of a chance to get jobs. Interest rates are low and expected to stay that way for at least a few years - great for mortgages but not savings. Banks are not lending out so therefore people are paying off debts rather than saving. (I know, I work in a bank)

Like is said somethings got to give and this will begin next year, somehow the country is going to have to try and recover some of it's debts and the easiest why to do that is by increasing taxes - it's inevitable - hence me wanting to get out this place, not saying life's going to be perfect anywhere else that's only one of the reasons I want to move!!!

 

Becki

[KIRK AND CO]

The UK is in serious trouble with an ever growing population and an ever increasing debt the recession can only get worse. Unemployment is growing, figures out this week say over 6 million Brits are on benefits which works out the goverment is paying out more than they can afford. The traditional industries are all gone and half of school leavers are not getting jobs. The future for kids here in the UK is bleak, it is OK saying i have still got a job so things are good but it is the kids that this recession will hit both now and in the future. Most major companies have job freezes on and this will continue for the forseeable future

I see another one looking possitive. Have you ever thought of working as a journalist LOL

[Guest Andy]

In see another one looking possitive. Have you ever thought of working as a journalist LOL

Unless you did note take note of the original post Sydney was asking wether things in the UK were going to recover and everyone has different views, so just because topscot does not agree with your view what is the problem? After all if we all agreed then their would be no forum!

[Guest Aldo]

Unless you did note take note of the original post Sydney was asking wether things in the UK were going to recover and everyone has different views, so just because topscot does not agree with your view what is the problem? After all if we all agreed then their would be no forum!

eh? is that one of those paradox thingies?

[KIRK AND CO]

Unless you did note take note of the original post Sydney was asking wether things in the UK were going to recover and everyone has different views, so just because topscot does not agree with your view what is the problem? After all if we all agreed then their would be no forum!

Sorry cant we have a laugh on here ?

[Mike@Bonbeach]

Have to disagree there Mike and Connie. The Oz press has printed a fair bit of negativity over the last two years about our economy over here, and I don't think we're out of the woods by a long way, but the economic data, for the UK, (not necessarilly from the UK), is quite negative, and the recent downgrading of their financial status isn't just mischevious journalism. I'm quite concerned for the UK to be honest, and can't see how they'll recover from such increases in debt that won't be repaid in our lifetime. My original question was to hear the views of UK residents on what's to come, and I hope someone can add something. I don't think the occasional full pub, and a couple of million Poms going on holiday is indicative of how things are. I hear 50 pubs a week are going out of business, and credit card vacations aren't unusual.

 

I agree that when the "recession" started Australia thought it was in for a rough time, but nowadays there doesn't seem to be any time on the news bulletins for economic news here in Victoria.

News bulletins seem to be full of AFL news, muggings, king hits, shirt fronts,old people getting bashed by younger people,young people getting bashed by gangs, and the Premier John Brumby and his cohorts poncing around in hard hats and fluorescent jackets saying not a lot,other than everything is fine.

Mike

[Life on easy street]

I was wondering what others thought the long term effect of the last couple of years will have on the future for the UK financially and socially. As we all know the UK has been hit particularly hard during the financial crisis.

 

#The huge and increasing debt that will have to be serviced.

#The quantative easing by the BOE, i.e. printing money.

#The downgrading of the country's financial rating.

# Massive growth in unemployment.

#Sterling down 20% against the $US over the last two weeks with more reductions forecast.

 

Lots of stats coming from the UK causing food for thought about the country's ability to recover in the near to medium term, and suggesting some desperate measures to come.

 

From the Oz point of view the currency rates are great for a holiday, but I think it will be a long time before the UK improves from it's present situation.

 

Anyone presently living in the UK who would like to give their views ?

 

 

 

I am in Australia

 

#The downgrading of the country's financial rating.

 

when did that happen ?

[Sydney]

I am in Australia

 

#The downgrading of the country's financial rating.

 

when did that happen ?

 

The last down grading was about four or five weeks ago. Think it was AA negative. It was previously downgraded to AAa last year. Think it might have been Moody's.

[Guest treesea]

If the government is hoping for a consumer led climb out of our recession, I think we have a long, long wait. What I notice nowadays over here in the UK is a move away from stuff. When we lived in Australia, the usual solution to "too much stuff" was to get a bigger house. Over here though, the trend seems to be towards smaller, more fuel efficient housing and less stuff. Those of us who can afford to are paying back our debt at a rate of knots - it's incredible to think that finally, after years of overspending, we are paying off our debt more than we are borrowing, especially when we grow our population by 408,000 a year. (Latest figures, from national statistics online: "The estimated resident population of the UK was 61383000 in mid-2008, up by 408000 on the previous year.")

 

On the jobs front, partly because we seem to be moving away from the rabid consumerism of previous decades, it willprobably get a lot worse before it gets better. So far the public sector has been a sacred cow, with 89,000 jobs added in the last year (today's Telegraph - and skipping the 200k+ from Lloyds and RBS who "became" public sector workers on account of the nationalisation of both), so very much bucking the trend of a downward spiral in private sector employment. But I doubt if this is going to last. And for sure not, if the conservatives come to power. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives are likely to go for wholesale redundancies, imho, but they might achieve some savings just by people retiring or leaving their jobs of their own accord, and not replacing them.

 

Housing prices? - well, various journalists talk them up, and given the population increase and the fact that we don't seem to have enough to meet demand, I wouldn't expect them to go down that much more, if at all. Having said that though, mortgage rates are quite expensive if you only have a 10% deposit.

 

Retail seems to be suffering here. We were through to Glasgow today, first to Govanhill, and then onto Govan. Well, Govanhill still looks the same as it always did - lots of people shopping, all the shops open. But Govan, also south of the river, only ten minutes by car from Govanhill, was a bit of a shock. I hadn't been there since the 1970s but I remember it as a busy interesting shopping centre. Well, the three pubs were doing well, but the shops were just row upon row of shuttered shops. As in only one in ten open, if that. Good quality housing and flats, beautiful parks, in so many ways the same as 30 years ago. But the shopping centre was gone, like still there physically but as if the guts had been kicked out of it. I know 30 years is a long time between visits, but still.

[Sydney]

Thanks for the info and also your own impression of how things stand. I'm thinking of returning to the UK for a couple of years possibly next year. Always been meaning to do it and time is slipping away so it's next year or never. My partner is very keen. She's a New Zealander and loves the UK, and I'm from Scotland and speak regularly to familly in and around Edinburgh. Oz will always be home now or mabe NZ. I haven't lived permanently in the UK for many years. It was an easy place to leave back then, and despite many visits since, I've always been settled here in Sydney. However the prospect of revisiting Europe with Edinburgh as a base is appealing. Thanks again for your insight on the UK.

Syd.