Weak pound

[Aussiebird]

With the pound so weak against the Aus dollar, I wonder what the future prediction is in the next 6 months?

Can financial experts predict a sharp continuing decline  or is it impossible with so many things going wrong in the UK?

It is very worrying when we rely on a good exchange rate when we come to buy our first property in Australia.  We want to remain mortgage free so every penny is crucial in the near future.  Don't know what to do if the pound keeps falling, it's  not looking good at all.

 

[rammygirl]

No one can predict with certainty tbh. At the moment it may have fallen but is still around the average for recent years at 1.8. Having changed money since 2006 we have got 1.4 to 2.5 the latter being 2007, never been that high since!

we consider anything over 1.8 good. If you don’t need to exchange everything at once you can spread the risk. 
Do use a forex company though you get a better deal overall. Compare a couple, sometimes paying a fee gets you more dollars in the end so don’t assume fee free is best. 

[ramot]

I agree Rammygirl, I have posted before that my husband has kept a record of the exchange rate UK pd to Australian dollar, since we arrived in the dizzy days of the high exchange rate in 2003 to the present rate as we rely on UK income.

It has averaged out at about 1.80 so the rate at present is on average, so I don’t understand the concern by the OP.

There is no point panicking about it until nearer the time the OP  comes here, No one has a crystal ball, and it would be foolish to predict something 6 months in the future .

 

[Susan from Moneycorp]

Some really wise and balanced comments here ~ thank you both!

I think it's worth remembering the volatility of the time we're in; politically, economically, medically.... in all my years in financial markets I don't know anyone  - my retired peers in their 60s, 70s & 80s included - who has ever known a time like this.
Previous patterns of economic behaviour are nowhere to be seen. Governments are printing Trillions of their own currency, seemingly with no regard for how that implicates their economies in the future. Stock markets are continuing to rise - on extraordinarily bad news - and the worst possible unemployment numbers don't appear to be significant anymore.

Looking historically, GBP/AUD at 1.80 is a fair price.
We have Brexit looming, an American election, an ongoing war of words with the Chinese Government, International trade agreements to be negotiated and, come September when jobkeeper payments around the world are due to cease, the true extent of global unemployment. 
Everyone would be wise to be cautious.

[Ausvisitor]

7 hours ago, ramot said:

I agree Rammygirl, I have posted before that my husband has kept a record of the exchange rate UK pd to Australian dollar, since we arrived in the dizzy days of the high exchange rate in 2003 to the present rate as we rely on UK income.

It has averaged out at about 1.80 so the rate at present is on average, so I don’t understand the concern by the OP.

There is no point panicking about it until nearer the time the OP  comes here, No one has a crystal ball, and it would be foolish to predict something 6 months in the future .

 

To be fair to the OP, if they started thinking about coming over a couple of years ago, it has been pretty consistently in the 1.90s in that time.

Now if you've got a 3 bed-semi in London (so £750k ish) and you switch that into dollars it would have been $1,425,000 at 1.90, at 1.80 it becomes $1,350,000.

$75,000 is another bedroom or the money to add a very nice pool and landscaped garden, so I can see why it would concern them.

Everyone wants their move experience to be:

1) Sell at the top of the UK market rise

2) Exchange at the highest GBP to AUD dollar in living memory

3) Buy at the bottom of the AUD market

4) ... Eventually if coming back sell at top of UK market, change to GBP at weakest point in memory and buy after a massive housing crash in UK

 

Few people actually manage all these

[ramot]

3 hours ago, Ausvisitor said:

To be fair to the OP, if they started thinking about coming over a couple of years ago, it has been pretty consistently in the 1.90s in that time.

Now if you've got a 3 bed-semi in London (so £750k ish) and you switch that into dollars it would have been $1,425,000 at 1.90, at 1.80 it becomes $1,350,000.

$75,000 is another bedroom or the money to add a very nice pool and landscaped garden, so I can see why it would concern them.

Everyone wants their move experience to be:

1) Sell at the top of the UK market rise

2) Exchange at the highest GBP to AUD dollar in living memory

3) Buy at the bottom of the AUD market

4) ... Eventually if coming back sell at top of UK market, change to GBP at weakest point in memory and buy after a massive housing crash in UK

 

Few people actually manage all these

 

The point I am making is that we also got caught out by a big drop in the exchange rate. I did not need a lecture, I can do the maths.

We had also planned our move for well over a year. The exchange rate in 2002 averaged 2.8 so we took a hit when it dropped to 2.4. after we arrived in 2003.

We were retiring to Australia, so our income was fixed, we did not have the luxury of knowing we would be working in Australia, so apart from the cost of the initial move which we all have to accept, we are dependent on the exchange rate forever, not just in the short term. No back up of once you are working here you won’t have to worry about the exchange rate.

There is a big difference to our income when the dollar is high, but we accept it without whinging. Sometimes you win sometimes you loose.

[Ausvisitor]

13 minutes ago, ramot said:

 

The point I am making is that we also got caught out by a big drop in the exchange rate. I did not need a lecture, I can do the maths.

We had also planned our move for well over a year. The exchange rate in 2002 averaged 2.8 so we took a hit when it dropped to 2.4. after we arrived in 2003.

We were retiring to Australia, so our income was fixed, we did not have the luxury of knowing we would be working in Australia, so apart from the cost of the initial move which we all have to accept, we are dependent on the exchange rate forever, not just in the short term. No back up of once you are working here you won’t have to worry about the exchange rate.

There is a big difference to our income when the dollar is high, but we accept it without whinging. Sometimes you win sometimes you loose.

Maybe you don't need a lecture, but you do need to not be so sensitive.

The text was there to help the OP and any others reading this to understand the issue the OP mentioned, not everything is a direct response to your personal situation which I have absolutely no insight of

[ramot]

10 minutes ago, Ausvisitor said:

Maybe you don't need a lecture, but you do need to not be so sensitive.

The text was there to help the OP and any others reading this to understand the issue the OP mentioned, not everything is a direct response to your personal situation which I have absolutely no insight of

Wow that’s a bit personal, I can assure you I’ve been on PIO far too long to be sensitive 

Interesting the different response from Susan from Moneycorp to mine and others initial comments.

I have sympathy to everyone caught up in the unprecedented events, but at the moment no one can foresee into how things will be in 6 months time.

I’ve Obviously unintentionally hit a nerve so will leave the thread. 

[Aussiebird]

Thank you all for your comments.  I appreciate it. Xx

[Collie]

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/british-pound-sinking-to-emerging-market-currency-status-1.4291672?mode=amp

[Ken]

On 29/06/2020 at 17:56, Susan from Moneycorp said:

Stock markets are continuing to rise - on extraordinarily bad news - and the worst possible unemployment numbers don't appear to be significant anymore.
 

Superfunds and their equivalents elsewhere in the world are still receiving contributions and they have to put it somewhere (no point leaving it in a bank account earning zero interest).