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Australia the new Greece?


MancGeek

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Not sure that's true.

 

Having said that why not just have a great 6 month holiday somewhere. Sounds like you have earned it and been missing out the last decade or so...

 

That is the irony. Living is cheaper in oz due to the stronger exchange rate. But it's about to get more expensive.

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Check what exactly? Australian personal debt one of the highest in the world. A GDP reliant on housing activity hardly a source for on going prosperity over time. Population increase declining with boom diminishing so the import of people hardly a guaranteed source either.

 

So even if you are right, why do you think it will be as serious as Greece? Hyperbole mate. There aren't the massive borrowing of deficits going on here. More likely in UK or France, where it won't happen either

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So even if you are right, why do you think it will be as serious as Greece? Hyperbole mate. There aren't the massive borrowing of deficits going on here. More likely in UK or France, where it won't happen either

 

Stories are always exaggerated for effect. However as the saying goes "you have to cut your cloth accordingly", and the commodities market tanking is resulting in a huge reduction in tax income for Australia whilst the level of spending is being roughly maintained. That can't continue forever. Best case scenario is that the global economy recovers, the Chinese QE and economic stimulus works and the increase in overall GDP to debt ratio is slight and temporary. Worst case is China tanks due to the artificial nature of their economy and the political dynamic in the country, and Oz either has to tax a lot more or slash spending.

 

Personal indebtedness is crazy across the world at the moment. I don't know why people think that the way to get what you want is to just keep on borrowing more and more money. Eventually you have to pay it back. The reliance on property inflation and equity release to finance this craziness can't continue forever as it will eventually correct, most likely very painfully.

 

I have a simple rule, save up and then pay for what you want in cash (a reasonable (no more than 3 times income) mortgage excepted). Seems I'm the exception in this regards and most other people view credit as perfectly normal.

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That is the irony. Living is cheaper in oz due to the stronger exchange rate. But it's about to get more expensive.

 

But how does the stronger exchange rate make living costs cheaper...like others have said the exchange rate doesnt affect living here does it?

 

I guess each persons situation is different. For us, we got more for our money in the UK than we do here. My wife earns more here (but then works an extra day a week compared to what she did in the UK) but we dont have any extra left as food, rent, childcare etc is all much higher here.

 

My wage alone in the UK used to cover ALL the bills and my wifes 2 days a week were spending money/savings. Here, my wages doesnt cover all the bills and my wife is working 3 days a week..and we at best have the same percentage left at the end of each month.

 

...and before anyone jumps on me, my wage here is the same ($2-£1) as it was in the UK....and here I get/can buy/pay for less than i used to in the UK....surely that speaks volumes.

 

To make the comparison even fairer we rent a 4 bed house here, as we did in the UK. We are still feeding a family of 4 here, as we did in the UK, and we run 2 cars here too, like we did in the UK...and infact, our cars here arent as nice/new as what we had in the UK...but thats for another debate!

 

Unlike so many people who compare on here I personally feel we are comparing apples for apples.

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To make the comparison even fairer we rent a 4 bed house here, as we did in the UK. We are still feeding a family of 4 here, as we did in the UK, and we run 2 cars here too, like we did in the UK...and infact, our cars here arent as nice/new as what we had in the UK...but thats for another debate!

 

Unlike so many people who compare on here I personally feel we are comparing apples for apples.

 

But how many years did it take to build your comfortable life in the UK? Even after only being Australia only 4.5 years I feel a lot more comfortable than I did in my first year here.

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And people are ignoring how the exchange rate works in their favour.

 

If they sell a home in the UK for say 400K, they will have something like $850000 to spend on a home in Australia.

So if you are bringing equity, you will be very happy for a high exchange rate.

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Also you have to factor in where in Australia you would be living. Personally I would avoid WA like the plague. It is different there and so are the people. Round Melbourne everything still seems on the up for now and you get the mix of races and not too many poms. Which suits us.

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Te big red flag for me in oz is not government debt. Though that is worrying, particularly in WA where they are still adamant on spending regardless of even the credit agencies warning them. But even bigger is personal debt. There are LOTS of people mortgaged to the hilt. The banks have behaved incredibly irresponsibly - when we were looking for a mortgage many were willing to offer us crazy amounts of money. Some willing to give a loan whose repayment was my entire net income.

 

Now, the commodity down turn is in its early days. We are likely to see a lot harder times in commodity prices yet as China slows. That obviously effects royalty payments. But it is a major impact on unemployment. It is often quoted that the mining sector only employs 1.6% of the working population. But that is direct employment. Anyone in the game knows that the vast majority of people are not direct. For example, I worked at a mine that shut this year. We only laid off officially about 350 staff. But, the airline that ran the flight that flew us in laid off as a result. The haulage companies that brought supplies in laid off staff. The rail company taking our product laid off lots of staff. The list goes on. Then, you take all them salaries out of the system. The shops, restaurants and businesses where that money was spent no longer get that money. So, they lay off - a lot of Perth restaurants have laid off staff.

 

But, then it gets interesting. Most of the primary and secondary laid off people were earning high salaries and have mortgages and debts accordingly. Most, if they even get work, are now earning less than they need to pay their debts. So, defaults start. Now, we apply this to the fact the banks have over lent. Sound familiar? America 2007?

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Not sure that's true.

 

Having said that why not just have a great 6 month holiday somewhere. Sounds like you have earned it and been missing out the last decade or so...

 

We are certainly finding the cost of living noticeably if not significantly lower here in the UK.

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But how does the stronger exchange rate make living costs cheaper...like others have said the exchange rate doesnt affect living here does it?

 

I guess each persons situation is different. For us, we got more for our money in the UK than we do here. My wife earns more here (but then works an extra day a week compared to what she did in the UK) but we dont have any extra left as food, rent, childcare etc is all much higher here.

 

My wage alone in the UK used to cover ALL the bills and my wifes 2 days a week were spending money/savings. Here, my wages doesnt cover all the bills and my wife is working 3 days a week..and we at best have the same percentage left at the end of each month.

 

...and before anyone jumps on me, my wage here is the same ($2-£1) as it was in the UK....and here I get/can buy/pay for less than i used to in the UK....surely that speaks volumes.

 

To make the comparison even fairer we rent a 4 bed house here, as we did in the UK. We are still feeding a family of 4 here, as we did in the UK, and we run 2 cars here too, like we did in the UK...and infact, our cars here arent as nice/new as what we had in the UK...but thats for another debate!

 

Unlike so many people who compare on here I personally feel we are comparing apples for apples.

 

Just using fuel as an example, consider oil. Oil, even if refined internally is priced in usd. So, if the aud falls from parity to 50 us cents, the price of oil doubles in aud. This happens for all imported goods and internationally traded goods. Australia has never had it so good. Things are about to get a lot worse. Just ask anyone from the UK who went through the pound devaluation inflation. (Note this example is assuming the price of oil stays constant in usd)

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And people are ignoring how the exchange rate works in their favour.

 

If they sell a home in the UK for say 400K, they will have something like $850000 to spend on a home in Australia.

So if you are bringing equity, you will be very happy for a high exchange rate.

 

 

High dollar favours high income earners, low dollar favours high asset holders. Pick the time to move that favours you most.

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We are certainly finding the cost of living noticeably if not significantly lower here in the UK.

 

Maybe you just went out and spent more here rather than sat at home watching Corrie?

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No, never watched Corrie in my life. We certainly do more here.

 

Go on what is cheaper? lets have another boring costs of items thread...

 

I was back last month and found things cost more from a going out and doing stuff perspective, particularly public transport. Maybe you live in a cheap area of UK.

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Go on what is cheaper? lets have another boring costs of items thread...

 

I was back last month and found things cost more from a going out and doing stuff perspective, particularly public transport. Maybe you live in a cheap area of UK.

 

If the the costs are 'boring' why do you want to know?

 

You found things more expensive and you live here, @bristolman finds it cheaper and he lives there, surely thats the best scenario for both?

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Go on what is cheaper? lets have another boring costs of items thread...

 

I was back last month and found things cost more from a going out and doing stuff perspective, particularly public transport. Maybe you live in a cheap area of UK.

 

But you yourself have started it by saying 'Not sure that's true' so it's fair to say you are turning it into another boring costs of items thread. We are finding the cost of living cheaper and really it shouldn't make any difference to you as you live in Australia. You did ask so for us food is cheaper generally, electricity is cheaper, car insurance is cheaper for a start but that isn't what this thread is about.

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So even if you are right, why do you think it will be as serious as Greece? Hyperbole mate. There aren't the massive borrowing of deficits going on here. More likely in UK or France, where it won't happen either

 

I didn't say it as serious as Greece as it obviously isn't at this state of play. Greece is barely a functioning nation. It would be plain dumb to suggest otherwise. What is being pointed out is some similar aspects. Hardly hyperbole as the situation is serious but not terminal. Certainly the present government has drifted away from budget crisis to increasing debt as part of election build up.

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But you yourself have started it by saying 'Not sure that's true' so it's fair to say you are turning it into another boring costs of items thread. We are finding the cost of living cheaper and really it shouldn't make any difference to you as you live in Australia. You did ask so for us food is cheaper generally, electricity is cheaper, car insurance is cheaper for a start but that isn't what this thread is about.

 

Most everything being cheaper than rip off Perth anyway.

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Maybe you just went out and spent more here rather than sat at home watching Corrie?

 

Depending on part of UK I suppose but from my experience went out far more in England than ever in Australia and lived/live in the centre of cities in both countries. Folk do not go out more as a general rule to things that cost money at any rate than England.

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Even my SIL and nieces who love Perth with a passion complain about the high cost of living.

 

It is liberty taking at its worst. Although some signs of downward movement in certain areas not enough to anywhere near compensate for the downturn. Of course the aim is to maintain high prices even in a declining economy in order to create a new norm.

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