jordiemagoo Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 With the EU Referendum to Leave or Remain in the EU, I am concerned about the GBP currency exchange rate into Australian dollars. Any advice?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janlo Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 You want to keep everything crossed for a "remain" result then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Raillys Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 (edited) With the EU Referendum to Leave or Remain in the EU, I am concerned about the GBP currency exchange rate into Australian dollars. Any advice?! Me too with my house in London on the market right now and my pension that I am not allowed to take to Oz. And Out vote would be disastrous to my finances Edited June 4, 2016 by The Raillys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordiemagoo Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 It is the not knowing if the UK is in or out! I am trying to track the GBP against the AUD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungo Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I think there is an awful lot of scaremongering going on at the moment. The idea that the pound will collapse if there were a Brexit result is preposterous in my view. The UK still has the fifth largest economy in the world and it will have on 24th June too. People working in money markets will have considered the possible referendum outcomes a very long time ago, they won't wait until the morning of 24th June to think about it. Accordingly uncertainty and the possibility of a leave is already factored into the exchange rates. I would predict no more than a blip in sterling, whatever way the result goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janlo Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I think there is an awful lot of scaremongering going on at the moment. The idea that the pound will collapse if there were a Brexit result is preposterous in my view. The UK still has the fifth largest economy in the world and it will have on 24th June too. People working in money markets will have considered the possible referendum outcomes a very long time ago, they won't wait until the morning of 24th June to think about it. Accordingly uncertainty and the possibility of a leave is already factored into the exchange rates. I would predict no more than a blip in sterling, whatever way the result goes. So why does it move heaps with just a sniff of brexit ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wirephobia Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 I think there is an awful lot of scaremongering going on at the moment. The idea that the pound will collapse if there were a Brexit result is preposterous in my view. The UK still has the fifth largest economy in the world and it will have on 24th June too. People working in money markets will have considered the possible referendum outcomes a very long time ago, they won't wait until the morning of 24th June to think about it. Accordingly uncertainty and the possibility of a leave is already factored into the exchange rates. I would predict no more than a blip in sterling, whatever way the result goes. I don't believe this is the case at all. The markets have largely factored in a remain vote, which is why any apparent swing towards a leave vote causes sterling to weaken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungo Posted June 4, 2016 Share Posted June 4, 2016 So why does it move heaps with just a sniff of brexit ?? It doesn't and it hasn't. I have worked in multi currency environments for over twenty years and there is nothing particularly unusual about the current FX rate movements. They go up and down all the time. Look at some graphs of exchange rates over the last ten years, look at the AUD:GBP one but look at any random ones, they will all be up and down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordiemagoo Posted June 4, 2016 Author Share Posted June 4, 2016 So, do you think the GBP will drop in value if the majority vote out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 So, do you think the GBP will drop in value if the majority vote out? Yes, for sure. I would expect it to be a short term thing though. Other factors long term such as interest rate policy in UK and AUS will be a more defining aspect in the medium to longer term. I am expecting a vote to Brexit and a rocky road for the UK for the next few years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It doesn't and it hasn't. I have worked in multi currency environments for over twenty years and there is nothing particularly unusual about the current FX rate movements. They go up and down all the time. Look at some graphs of exchange rates over the last ten years, look at the AUD:GBP one but look at any random ones, they will all be up and down. It will be a shorters heaven if the UK exits. I have seen predictions of a 10% fall in Stirling and stock market. It will be a shock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephensteve Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 (edited) The UK will not exit...there will be some heavy pressure put on the 17% undecided in the days prior to voting.. Edited June 5, 2016 by stephensteve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itegoa Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 As i've said elsewhere on this forum, GBP will drop like a stone. (CBA arguing over it - it's my opinion, and from what i've seen so far, it's a pretty good prediction). Bad news if you're wanting to convert GBP to AUD. You could play it safe and put a few grand (or more) on at the bookies and bet on LEAVE (currently offering around 5/2 according to oddschecker.com) If the result is REMAIN, then GBP/AUD increases and you're a winner. If the result is LEAVE, then GBP/AUD drops and you claim your winnings! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTA Posted June 5, 2016 Share Posted June 5, 2016 It will be a shorters heaven if the UK exits. I have seen predictions of a 10% fall in Stirling and stock market. It will be a shock. Please correct me if I am wrong but Bungo said that the brexit has nothing to do with currency fluctuations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wirephobia Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Has anyone found a broker willing to take a trailing stop-loss on 23rd June converting GBP to AUD? I haven't, brokers reluctance seems to confirm (as do their comments to me) anticipation of significant volatility if there's a leave vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJT Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Has anyone found a broker willing to take a trailing stop-loss on 23rd June converting GBP to AUD? I haven't, brokers reluctance seems to confirm (as do their comments to me) anticipation of significant volatility if there's a leave vote. Problem with stop-loss orders is they not guaranteed to get you out with a small loss in the event of a major market moving event - the order can just get gapped over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bungo Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 (edited) So, do you think the GBP will drop in value if the majority vote out? The result whichever way it is, will probably create a blip, like any other news story can create a blip. That is all, currencies are always bobbing around. Why on earth do people believe a currency will collapse just because the country is not in the European Union! It is plain dumb. Australia isn't in the European Union either by the way, neither are a lot of countries, they don't all have worthless currencies. Edited June 6, 2016 by Bungo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Markets don't like risk or change which is why they react the way they do. It is the uncertainty which people don't like so they sell. It is usually a short term phenomena though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Markets don't like risk or change which is why they react the way they do. It is the uncertainty which people don't like so they sell. It is usually a short term phenomena though. This is true. I am less sure with the contention of others though who believe that a vote for Brexit will cause a short term blip. Nobody knows what the short, medium or long term implications are for the UK economy following a Brexit vote and the ensuing uncertainty is likely to last for months or even years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbye grey sky Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 The result whichever way it is, will probably create a blip, like any other news story can create a blip. That is all, currencies are always bobbing around. Why on earth do people believe a currency will collapse just because the country is not in the European Union! It is plain dumb. Australia isn't in the European Union either by the way, neither are a lot of countries, they don't all have worthless currencies. I can't fathom this either but any positive Remain news boosts the GBP and positive Leave news damages it. As PC says it is simply down to the uncertainty of what would happen post-Brexit. A vote to leave though will not end the uncertainty though as nobody can predict what happens next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 A vote to leave though will not end the uncertainty though as nobody can predict what happens next. I'll give you a prediction - they'll have another referendum and keep on having them until the voters get it right!!:laugh: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 Please correct me if I am wrong but Bungo said that the brexit has nothing to do with currency fluctuations. How can a brexit not have everything to do with currency fluctuations? If Britain leaves, shorters will have a field day, the stock market will tumble, Cameron will resign causing more mayhem. The Euro will also drop, and every right wing continental leave party will start for their own referendum. Add any other bad news, and there is a lot of potential, and you could be talking about total meltdown. As soon as the UK leaves, Scotland will call another referendum. This is a big thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 I'll give you a prediction - they'll have another referendum and keep on having them until the voters get it right!!:laugh: Leave means leave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 The result whichever way it is, will probably create a blip, like any other news story can create a blip. That is all, currencies are always bobbing around. Why on earth do people believe a currency will collapse just because the country is not in the European Union! It is plain dumb. Australia isn't in the European Union either by the way, neither are a lot of countries, they don't all have worthless currencies. Probably not the strongest argument I've ever heard. Who said anything about a worthless currency? We are talking about a currency revaluation based on the sudden uncertainty. As a place to invest money, the UK will not be as sure an investment as it was. This has to have a bearing on the value of the pound. As a currency trader you must be able to appreciate this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted June 6, 2016 Share Posted June 6, 2016 How can a brexit not have everything to do with currency fluctuations? If Britain leaves, shorters will have a field day, the stock market will tumble, Cameron will resign causing more mayhem. The Euro will also drop, and every right wing continental leave party will start for their own referendum. Add any other bad news, and there is a lot of potential, and you could be talking about total meltdown. As soon as the UK leaves, Scotland will call another referendum. This is a big thing. Talk about scaremongering. None of that would happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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