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The coming Australia collapse


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Falling dollar = more visitors. Tasmania is very busy just now with tourists. Saw a bus load of Chinese this morning getting off a bus to take photos.

 

And purchase all the farm land i bet:wink:

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The point is that building is going on and people are working these projects. Even if its a flood of residential property with no demand at least there would be a knock on cost of housing decrease due to excess supply.

 

Well no, not necessarily. Especially if building what people don't want. Poor quality apartments with/or with hefty price tags. Built more for quick profit, than any plan to relieve housing supply or necessary affordability issues.

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Falling dollar = more visitors. Tasmania is very busy just now with tourists. Saw a bus load of Chinese this morning getting off a bus to take photos.

 

Tasmania, I imagine would be highly attractive to overseas investors. Whatever happened to the Korea Town development that was to take place in Hobart? It was quite a proposal. Cold feet?

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The ones which are mentioned in the quote I attached/responded to.

 

I think Switzerland may have done quite well largely on a service industry, and there are quite a few whom survive on servicing a tourist industry, to which Australia is not doing too bad at present with tourists - visitor figures well up I believe.

 

I am not really aware of any developed country that makes any sort of satisfactory living from tourism. An area that creates mostly lower paid jobs. While helping to develop Thailand and Cambodia not necessary the answer to Australia's ever declining resource boom.

 

As for Switzerland, a country in a prime Middle European position, small in area and population that has traditionally relied on its secret banking sector (more overt in recent times) in order to create wealth. Along with cuckoo clocks and a very educated local and many German and French commuting daily to work in high paid professions. Not forgetting a very high currency.Hardly a single identifiable feature with Australia, I'd have thought.

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This such thing has been happening in our rural area for at least the last 5 or so years most of the farms in our area are foreign owned. Mostly chinese owned.

 

The slow drip, drip will continue but with greater urgency as the dollar declines. Greater currency controls with regards the movement of money may assist, but how do we know how many Chinese companies are buying in. In effect that means the Chinese government. If the price is right sell? Perhaps not the most ideal way to conduct the business of a nation?

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Whatever happened to the Korea Town development that was to take place in Hobart? It was quite a proposal. Cold feet?

 

The original plan was approved by the local council in 2012. The proponents submitted an amended plan in 2014 for an additional 228 building blocks. This was also approved. I've heard nothing since. I assume they are trying to gather the necessary finance.

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All doom and gloom with you Brits. Arrogant and self-righteous pointing your finger at transitioning economies and relishing their supposed demise, as if you can now look upon your own Isle with some sense of reassurance and reverie? No-one can prove Australia is about to collapse. Not with the currency exchange rates, note with land-sales, not with rising or falling house prices. Australia might no longer be "en-vogue" with you Brits, but it is not a monopoly board game, it is a country, with hard-working people just like anywhere, on the same planet as every other country.

It isn't Australia that has lost it's way - it is a desperate British people who don't know where to pillage next. Maybe you lot have lost your way? Which countries haven't faltered? Where can we go next? Spain? uh-uh, Greece? uh-uh. Thailand. Too hot! If Australia is not attractive to Home-and-Away-watching British, it will still be home to the many who love living here and will - as ever - fight to make it a better place. Isn't it time ye of little faith go on back to Blighty? I hear your economy grew by 1%

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The original plan was approved by the local council in 2012. The proponents submitted an amended plan in 2014 for an additional 228 building blocks. This was also approved. I've heard nothing since. I assume they are trying to gather the necessary finance.

 

My thoughts as well. The project appeared rather confident of progressing I thought from my readings at the time. A future prospect perhaps? Lower dollar more favourable.

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All doom and gloom with you Brits. Arrogant and self-righteous pointing your finger at transitioning economies and relishing their supposed demise, as if you can now look upon your own Isle with some sense of reassurance and reverie? No-one can prove Australia is about to collapse. Not with the currency exchange rates, note with land-sales, not with rising or falling house prices. Australia might no longer be "en-vogue" with you Brits, but it is not a monopoly board game, it is a country, with hard-working people just like anywhere, on the same planet as every other country.

It isn't Australia that has lost it's way - it is a desperate British people who don't know where to pillage next. Maybe you lot have lost your way? Which countries haven't faltered? Where can we go next? Spain? uh-uh, Greece? uh-uh. Thailand. Too hot! If Australia is not attractive to Home-and-Away-watching British, it will still be home to the many who love living here and will - as ever - fight to make it a better place. Isn't it time ye of little faith go on back to Blighty? I hear your economy grew by 1%

 

Not in 'vogue' with a number of Australians either. Struggling with insane house prices and stagnant wages in which to afford them. Expect increasing numbers of local born to join returning Brits and Asian migrants in search of greater prosperity after using the country for their own needs. You see just whacking a figure on a visa application as part of the immigration Ponzi scheme to shore up over priced housing and stuff depleting government coffers and not necessary invite a lot of loyalty not commitment to the cause. No doubt the government cares not as it is business as usual.

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Chinese are buying farms in Tasmania - can't understand why they are allowed to. They could lease them for 50 years or whatever. Once they are sold, you can never get them back.

 

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/chinese-buy-nations-largest-dairy-van-diemens-land-company/news-story/f35b55db81da953570307a65fe5a9637

 

Are you worried they're going to pack up the land and ship it to China? There's a big issue with selling things like Intellectual Property abroad because the asset will leave the country and benefit will be lost permanently, but land is immobile and so far less of an issue. It stays in Australia no matter who owns it. Not only that but it could be compulsory purchased in the future should the ownership be found to be detrimental (no such option with other assets - once they've left Australian jurisdiction they're gone for good).

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Are you worried they're going to pack up the land and ship it to China? There's a big issue with selling things like Intellectual Property abroad because the asset will leave the country and benefit will be lost permanently, but land is immobile and so far less of an issue. It stays in Australia no matter who owns it. Not only that but it could be compulsory purchased in the future should the ownership be found to be detrimental (no such option with other assets - once they've left Australian jurisdiction they're gone for good).

 

Well there are issues of consideration. As for compulsory purchase in times of angst or for whatever reason, may well result in a Chinese government rebuttal with some ferocity depending on the circumstances.

It cannot be in a nation's best interests to sell of its farm and produce to foreign concerns. Noting China is a centrally controlled nation only brings greater potential danger to play.

 

One only has to observe Chinese economic power at work in countries along the Mekong River. Could do worse than take a look at beautiful Laos.

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Tasmania, I imagine would be highly attractive to overseas investors. Whatever happened to the Korea Town development that was to take place in Hobart? It was quite a proposal. Cold feet?
The Koreans are good at pulling out of developments. Hyundai came to Central Scotland years ago with promises of hundreds of jobs in a new plant. They received huge grants to build a huge new plant and expenses for people coming over to set up the factory and just as the building was complete they mothballed the project and buggered off home! What a waste of taxpayers money that was.
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Well no, not necessarily. Especially if building what people don't want. Poor quality apartments with/or with hefty price tags. Built more for quick profit, than any plan to relieve housing supply or necessary affordability issues.

 

Well sounds like there will be a fire sale then? Or haven't you got to supply and demand on economics 101 yet?

 

Impending crash, over supply of units = cheaper rent/price no?

 

As usual you are twisting yourself up in your own negativity.

 

The original point is there are plenty of construction jobs going in Brisbane, but as usual ol misery guts has to keep changing the subject to try and find a fresh negative.

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Chill. I may only be 41, but I have seen 2 distinct slumps in my working life in UK. The UK has also transformed into a more service led sector and lost great depths of manufacturing. But it really is all a cycle. There will always be ups and downs, but life goes on. Things work out / bounce back. Worry to much and it will kill your mind.

Peace :yes:

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Are you worried they're going to pack up the land and ship it to China? There's a big issue with selling things like Intellectual Property abroad because the asset will leave the country and benefit will be lost permanently, but land is immobile and so far less of an issue. It stays in Australia no matter who owns it. Not only that but it could be compulsory purchased in the future should the ownership be found to be detrimental (no such option with other assets - once they've left Australian jurisdiction they're gone for good).

 

IP rights only mean anything if all countries accept that law. China are one of the worst for respecting copyright because they don't agree with the concept anyway, everything they've done is copied from railways, to Windows software, to mobile phones. They don't see anything wrong in that, it's how they are. See, copy, make yourself. Good luck to them, they're the nation most likely to take the world into the 2nd half of this Century with the muscle to provide innovation. They're still building their power base though.

 

Land rights are dodgy. It also gives a future reason for protecting national interests, even if based in another country. Look at Russia in Ukraine.

I think you underestimate the power that China is going to have compared to Australia, given that most Chinese companies are connected to, or fronts for the Chinese Government and will rise and fall on their say so. Just look at the hugely powerful people currently being purged under the latest corruption spotlight, these are billionaires disappearing at the behest of the Chinese Government.

Put it another way, should one sovereign nation sell land within it's territory to another sovereign nation, and would you think that Australia would dare waste it's time with "compulsory purchase" orders against China in the event of trouble? They wouldn't, they don't even care about money laundering right now as long as they pick up a few crumbs that have fallen off the table.

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Are you worried they're going to pack up the land and ship it to China? There's a big issue with selling things like Intellectual Property abroad because the asset will leave the country and benefit will be lost permanently, but land is immobile and so far less of an issue. It stays in Australia no matter who owns it. Not only that but it could be compulsory purchased in the future should the ownership be found to be detrimental (no such option with other assets - once they've left Australian jurisdiction they're gone for good).

 

You seem to know what you are talking about so I'll take your word for it :dull:

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Well sounds like there will be a fire sale then? Or haven't you got to supply and demand on economics 101 yet?

 

Impending crash, over supply of units = cheaper rent/price no?

 

As usual you are twisting yourself up in your own negativity.

 

The original point is there are plenty of construction jobs going in Brisbane, but as usual ol misery guts has to keep changing the subject to try and find a fresh negative.

 

Or on the other hand you could remove your head where it appears fixed to its rightful position. The original theme of the thread being the coming collapse of Australia.

Indeed there is a well discussed subject of over building of apartments just as there are approvals being given but construction stalled. May or may not ever get off the ground. I don't see why Brisbane would be any different.

 

Supply and demand? The general consensus being over building will see a decline in demand and price to purchase as well as to rent. I believe you just want to argue for arguments sake. No matter very willing to take you on as usual and underline the fallacy in such remarks.

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I can tell you now all the projects around me have not stalled they are building again today. A collapse and oversupply will of course bring down the extortionate housing costs you complain of so every cloud eh?

 

I'll be one of the first to buy a well positioned unit in any collapse so here's hoping you are right, unfortunately at best I see a small recession...People seem to forget all recessions are not like the GFC. But feel free to exaggerate away, maybe one day in the 2020's you can do a "Flag was right" post but looks like you have been swinging and missing for a fair few years.

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I can tell you now all the projects around me have not stalled they are building again today. A collapse and oversupply will of course bring down the extortionate housing costs you complain of so every cloud eh?

 

I'll be one of the first to buy a well positioned unit in any collapse so here's hoping you are right, unfortunately at best I see a small recession...People seem to forget all recessions are not like the GFC. But feel free to exaggerate away, maybe one day in the 2020's you can do a "Flag was right" post but looks like you have been swinging and missing for a fair few years.

 

To be fair though Flag has been mainly posting about WA where he has a first-hand perspective. The issues he highlighted are being proven right albeit that they have been accelerated by a global commodities over-supply brought about by wholesale extraction of shale oil in the USA and a slowdown in Chinese growth/manufacturing.

 

These are impacting massively in many parts of Queensland also. I have only been here a few months but I am staggered by the shere number of housebuilding projects which are underway or proposed locally. Most of the locals express concern too and it is not simply NIMBY'ism. Where are the people going to come from to buy/rent these properties I wonder?

 

A massive over-supply of housing does not simply bring about a desirable house price correction; it can trigger an outright collapse. I have no intention of moving and do not have a mortgage but I fear for so many who are over-geared if this happens.

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I was also talking only from a Brisbane perspective that there is building going on like I hadn't seen before and that there was plenty of jobs currently in construction. Flag has been calling for this huge collapse for many a year and it has yet to materialise. As most developed nations hit a recession every decase he's not exactly shown he knows anything more than the average A level student. There could well be overbuilding going on but I think the people who will be damaged are all those investing out in the burbs. We will see anyway as a lot of developments are about to hit the market in Albion and Newstead in Brisbane, but at the moment there are plenty of jobs and consumption is up in retail and cafes so as I was saying not all doom and gloom like obviously in Perth..Although Flag seems to live in a grey cloud permanently.

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I am not really aware of any developed country that makes any sort of satisfactory living from tourism. An area that creates mostly lower paid jobs. While helping to develop Thailand and Cambodia not necessary the answer to Australia's ever declining resource boom.

 

As for Switzerland, a country in a prime Middle European position, small in area and population that has traditionally relied on its secret banking sector (more overt in recent times) in order to create wealth. Along with cuckoo clocks and a very educated local and many German and French commuting daily to work in high paid professions. Not forgetting a very high currency.Hardly a single identifiable feature with Australia, I'd have thought.

 

I provided an adequate response to your post, you now want to move your goal posts!

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I can tell you now all the projects around me have not stalled they are building again today. A collapse and oversupply will of course bring down the extortionate housing costs you complain of so every cloud eh?

 

I'll be one of the first to buy a well positioned unit in any collapse so here's hoping you are right, unfortunately at best I see a small recession...People seem to forget all recessions are not like the GFC. But feel free to exaggerate away, maybe one day in the 2020's you can do a "Flag was right" post but looks like you have been swinging and missing for a fair few years.

Likewise would have been said in Perth at the height of the building boom. You will see what you want to see of course and continue to live in your self cocooned bubble. Your call. Brisbane has no interest for me but I will continue to call it as I see it.

 

As for QLD, you need look no further than the Sunshine Coast market which was doing it tough for sometime. Things may have recovered due to Commonwealth Games but we'll see the duration of that recovery. I do recall substantial falling prices though.

 

You may also wish to cast your eyes towards the Bowen Basin region, where I understand has been impacted severely by falling prices and rents with the resource boom collapse.

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Flag what makes up your ideal economy. Tourism, resources, infrastructure etc seem to be a no go so what would you be targeting? Seems to be a lot of demand in Asia for Aussie food stocks with the growth of middle class in China. Go look at baby formula in your local supermarket and see what signs are up...

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Flag what makes up your ideal economy. Tourism, resources, infrastructure etc seem to be a no go so what would you be targeting? Seems to be a lot of demand in Asia for Aussie food stocks with the growth of middle class in China. Go look at baby formula in your local supermarket and see what signs are up...

 

Now let me think?? A mixed economy perhaps? Not eggs all in the China basket? How about the making of a few things?

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