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Cyclone Dylan - Cat 2


Guest The Pom Queen

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Guest The Pom Queen

Just a heads up for everyone to make sure their cyclone kits are ready. It may or may not hit the coast the verdict is still out but we should always be prepared.

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Just a heads up for everyone to make sure their cyclone kits are ready. It may or may not hit the coast the verdict is still out but we should always be prepared.

 

A timely reminder Kate,

 

12 months ago tonight I was living in an area that "could not flood" and any heavy rain could run off down a 10 meter bank into the river mouth. We do not live in a cyclone area and the worst we normally get is the tail end heavy rain.... At 3.30 am we were hit by a tornado that dropped a 30 foot wall of water onto us causing a lot of damage. we were lucky our home was still habitable but other were not. No Power for 5 days, the town was completely cut off for 3 days and all telephone towers failed stopping us contacting the outside world. Even if you don't live in a Cyclone area there are natural disasters that can isolate you,

 

DSCF0150.jpg

 

Taken at 8am on 27th January 2013.

Don't get caught out build an emergency kit ....

DSCF0150.jpg

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No cyclone in the Coral Sea.......one MAY form with the strengthening of the Monsoon Trough......we will have to wait and see.

 

Bureau Home > Australia > Queensland > Forecasts > Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

[h=1]Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea[/h]

IDQ10810 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea Issued at 2:47 pm EST on Sunday 26 January 2014 for the period until midnight EST Wednesday 29 January 2014. Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil. Potential Cyclones: The monsoon trough extends from Papua New Guinea to the Solomon Islands, with an area of low pressure located southwest of the Solomon Islands. The monsoon is expected to strengthen early next week. It is likely that with the intensification of the monsoon trough, the low will develop further, however the uncertainty with its future movement is high. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: Monday Low Tuesday Moderate Wednesday High NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day. Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50% Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%

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Guest The Pom Queen
A timely reminder Kate,

 

12 months ago tonight I was living in an area that "could not flood" and any heavy rain could run off down a 10 meter bank into the river mouth. We do not live in a cyclone area and the worst we normally get is the tail end heavy rain.... At 3.30 am we were hit by a tornado that dropped a 30 foot wall of water onto us causing a lot of damage. we were lucky our home was still habitable but other were not. No Power for 5 days, the town was completely cut off for 3 days and all telephone towers failed stopping us contacting the outside world. Even if you don't live in a Cyclone area there are natural disasters that can isolate you,

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]22894[/ATTACH]

 

Taken at 8am on 27th January 2013.

Don't get caught out build an emergency kit ....

Wow is it 12 months today. I'm glad you are eventually back to normal, just praying this cyclone season leaves you all untouched. Just wish it would send the rain to the farmers, every day more and more cattle are dying.

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Guest The Pom Queen

The You tube video I have posts is from my friend Chris. He is someone who I trust over BOM and we were aware of Yasi even before the media picked up on it. If you can I would recommend signing up to their website and their app

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The You tube video I have posts is from my friend Chris. He is someone who I trust over BOM and we were aware of Yasi even before the media picked up on it. If you can I would recommend signing up to their website and their app

 

Very good video and quite comprehensive but he is really saying nothing more than the BOM Cyclone advice I posted........there are a lot of if's, buts and maybe's depending on what model you look at.........he like the BOM may be right and a TC may form by Wednesday, as TC''s are unpredictably systems, we will just have to wait and see.

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Guest The Pom Queen

I'm sure it has been noted already, that this event may for Cairns, coincide with the King Tide for 2014. To be precise at 0940 on Friday 31/1/2014, Cairns will have a high tide of 3.48M.

 

 

Also, other possible crossing points e.g. Mackay, will be experiencing their highest spring tide at around the same time Friday.

 

 

In fact the high tides this week are, from Wednesday to Saturday, well above the normal spring tide levels for most of the FNQ coast.

 

 

Regardless of what becomes of this system, it will be interesting to see the effect of it, on top of the King Tides.

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I'm sure it has been noted already, that this event may for Cairns, coincide with the King Tide for 2014. To be precise at 0940 on Friday 31/1/2014, Cairns will have a high tide of 3.48M.

 

 

Also, other possible crossing points e.g. Mackay, will be experiencing their highest spring tide at around the same time Friday.

 

 

In fact the high tides this week are, from Wednesday to Saturday, well above the normal spring tide levels for most of the FNQ coast.

 

 

Regardless of what becomes of this system, it will be interesting to see the effect of it, on top of the King Tides.

 

Ours is 6.5 metres.

 

Cheers, Bobj.

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Guest The Pom Queen

Wtps21 pgtw 280300

msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen pearl harbor hi//

subj/tropical cyclone formation alert//

rmks/

1. Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within

200 nm either side of a line from 14.9s 154.0e to 18.0s 149.7e

within the next 12 to 24 hours. Available data does not justify

issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time.

Winds in the area are estimated to be 25 to 30 knots. Metsat

imagery at 280230z indicates that a circulation center is located

near 15.2s 153.4e. The system is moving southwestward at 06

knots.

2. Remarks: The area of convection previously located near 12.6s

154.5e, is now located near 15.2s 153.4e, approximately 215 nm east-

northeast of willis island, australia. Recent animated multispectral

satellite imagery depicts deep convective banding slowly wrapping

into a consolidating low-level circulation center (llcc), which is

also evident in a 282340z metop-b microwave image. A 282340z ascat

pass shows an elongated circulation with 30 to 35 knot winds along

the northern and southern peripheries with weaker (20 to 25 knot)

winds in the core. Upper-level analysis indicates the system is

located in a favorable environment with low to moderate (10 to 15

knot) vertical wind shear and good poleward outflow. Warm (greater

than 28 degrees celsius) sea surface temperatures and high ocean

heat content in the coral sea are also conducive for quick

development. Despite the current elongation, dynamic model guidance

suggests improved upper-level conditions in the area within the next

24 hours, allowing the system to quickly organize and consolidate.

Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 25 to 30 knots.

Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1000 mb. The

potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone

within the next 24 hours is high.

3. This alert will be reissued, upgraded to warning or cancelled by

290300z.//

nnnn

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Guest The Pom Queen

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

for DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL and ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES

For people in the

Northern Tropical Coast and Tablelands,

Herbert and Lower Burdekin and parts of the

Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:34 am Tuesday, 28 January 2014.

Synoptic Situation: At 9am, a tropical low was situated in the northern Coral Sea, approximately 870 kilometres east-northeast of Cairns, and moving southwest at around 10 kilometres per hour. The tropical low is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland east coast. The potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone will be assessed during today and Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued if required.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, and damaging winds, with peak gusts in excess of 90km/h, are expected to develop about coastal and adjacent inland areas between Port Douglas and the area north of Mackay during Wednesday afternoon. 24 hour rainfall totals in excess of 200mm are possible.

Water levels on the high tide are also likely to exceed the highest tide of the year about coastal areas between Port Douglas and the areas north of Mackay over the next couple of days.

Locations which may be affected include Hamilton Island, Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Cairns, Port Douglas and Mareeba.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:

* Move your car under cover or away from trees.

* Secure loose outdoor items.

* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.

* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.

* Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters.

* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.

* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

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Guest The Pom Queen

First Cyclone Watch for East Coast this year

 

We're now on cyclone watch

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued at 3:54 pm EST on Tuesday 28 January 2014

 

 

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal

areas from Port Douglas to Proserpine.

 

 

At 1:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be

760 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 790 kilometres northeast of

Townsville and moving west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

 

 

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Thursday.

 

 

The tropical low, is expected to move in a general westwards direction over the

next couple of days and may develop further as it approaches the Queensland

east coast. GALES may develop between Port Douglas and Proserpine during

Wednesday afternoon and could persist into Thursday.

 

 

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about

coastal and adjacent inland areas of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands,

Herbert and Lower Burdekin and northern parts of the Central Coast and

Whitsundays districts during Wednesday afternoon and should continue into

Thursday.

 

 

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Port

Douglas and Proserpine, mainly on the high tide on Wednesday and Thursday.

Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in

areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect

their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

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Hopefully it will not make the cyclone strength winds or if it does then a cat 1 at the most (we hope), lets hope the winds will not be to damaging, the rain fall will be welcomed by a lot who are suffering with the drought conditions. I hope everyone stays safe up there.

 

Please do not take risks and everyone look after yourselves and your neighbors

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