How do we leave the EU???

[Roberta2]

It is taking most Brits a long time to grasp that their bargaining position is extremely weak - all their own handiwork. Britain can longer use "must" about anything. The feral British press - Murdoch and Dacre in particular - have a lot to answer for. (Yet the Murdoch tabloids here are much less feral - not that I see them but occasionally. What does that tell us?)

[Keith and Linda]

It is taking most Brits a long time to grasp that their bargaining position is extremely weak - all their own handiwork. Britain can longer use "must" about anything. The feral British press - Murdoch and Dacre in particular - have a lot to answer for. (Yet the Murdoch tabloids here are much less feral - not that I see them but occasionally. What does that tell us?)

 

Well I suppose they do say a week is a long time in politics!

I would ask what ever happens quick in government?

[newjez]

No they damn well haven't.

The only conditions of exit are to give notice and the two year limit (which itself is subject to change), anyhing else may be up for negotiation.

 

 

The conditions to have access to the single market are the four freedoms and they have not been a secret. If the UK just wants to go, the EU has no conditions. It's nothing to do with them. We are the ones asking for favours. We can leave and default to wto rules.

[VERYSTORMY]

It is taking most Brits a long time to grasp that their bargaining position is extremely weak - all their own handiwork. Britain can longer use "must" about anything. The feral British press - Murdoch and Dacre in particular - have a lot to answer for. (Yet the Murdoch tabloids here are much less feral - not that I see them but occasionally. What does that tell us?)

 

Rubbish

 

We have an organisation to deal with that is ridden with economic collapse - half of its members are in a situation of stagnation and some will never recover. The other half are barely teetering -countries such as Finland have major unemployment issues. Now, Germany is seeing some of the largest declines in factory orders ever seen.

 

At the same time, the UK is one if the largest buyers of European products - look how many German cars you see on the roads. The EU and in particular its members are not going to shoot themselves not only in the foot, but straight through the head. A number of the EU countries are facing elections, so collapsing their own economies just before, isn't going to be a keen move

[VERYSTORMY]

Sadly for many there are not a million options and unlikely UK will be calling many of the shots. If life was so easy countries would find no reason to be in a union and all would opt odd. To think Britain will arrive at more favourable deals outside is purely wishful thinking on the part of those voting out, I'm afraid.

 

Of course there are a mass of options. At one end of the extreme is two fingers at each other and go to WTO for trade. At the other is EEA which is in effect partial membership. Two very extreme ends of a spectrum. The reality will come somewhere in between.

 

As for calling the shots, given the EU members are not going to want to kill their own economies, then yes, we have serious bargaining power. The members know that they have some huge issues at home including the rise of the far right. Behave in a way that damages their own economies and that will, as it always does, encourage the far right even more - France would likely end up with Le Penn as President if they create even more economic problems that what they already have. The EU generally are well aware of that along with the fact that Le Penn would either pull France out of the EU or hol a referendum - a country with 68% of people currently anti EU would translate to Fraxit and the immediate death of the EU project

[Roberta2]

The EU Trade Commissioner has made it perfectly clear. Out is Out. There are two distinct processes. They cannot be conflated. (1) Exit from EU. This will take at least two years, given the huge complexity. During this period, only WTO rules apply. (2) Start negotiations with the EU ONLY THEN as a "third country". When asked about the effect on supply chains etc, she just shrugged. Rules are rules, laws are laws. Not sure when the penny is going to drop for most Brits. Teresa May seems to grasp this. One assumes she is a lot smarter than the "Posh Boys" who thought they were too clever by half.

[Roberta2]

Those options won't exist until the exit process is completed. Until they do, the UK will be merely a member of the WTO, and a Third Party on its own in negotiations with the EU bloc. All 27 of them. When will the penny drop that once the train leaves the station, to mix metaphores, what the UK wants will be irrelevant. The EU without the UK will also be more protectionist because France will be more powerful. Better get used to it. Or migrate.

[winter1]

My initial reaction to the question is very badly.

 

Good luck to negotiating with a 2 year window. A bit like selling a car in a hurry when you are emigrating.

Also can you envisage the negotiations maybe 1 good cop negotiator on the EU side and 26 bad ones taking it in turns to be the good cop. I think if we trigger Article 50 the outcome will be 2 years of futile negotiations then cast adrift on WTO rules we will only then be able to negotiate deals. Then we will still have to negotiate with the EU as a block they won't do it individually.

 

The EU negotiations on current deals in progress are to protect EU citizens and companies from over reaching from the likes of US multinationals like Google and Microsoft and the rabid grab for intellectual property (if it moves it belongs to a US company) who will no longer be bound by EU rules in the UK.

 

As for the us buying more from the EU well they will still sell to us unless we only want to buy UK made goods, but WILL put tariffs on our products and services when we sell to them and there is now a good chance many British made but foreign owned car companies will now move production to EU countries. As for higher costs they will likely move to Slovakia or other low cost countries which will outweigh any benefit to a low pound. Remember some of the parts for these cars are already made all over Europe why complicate the supply chain with extra bureaucracy.

[Roberta2]

Yes, plus the costs of loss of the EU "passport" for the British banks. Very bad news for London. Very good news for Frankfurt, Dublin, Singapore etc. I think what most infuriates a lot of people is that Johnson was better placed than just about anyone else to know this. Don't suppose I will see his dessicated head on London Bridge on my next visit?

[winter1]

Yes, plus the costs of loss of the EU "passport" for the British banks. Very bad news for London. Very good news for Frankfurt, Dublin, Singapore etc. I think what most infuriates a lot of people is that Johnson was better placed than just about anyone else to know this. Don't suppose I will see his dessicated head on London Bridge on my next visit?

 

I am hoping he(Boris) will come out and say Brexit is a bad idea and we didn't think leave would win. It was just a negotiating Tactic

 

"YOU WERE ONLY MEANT TO BLOW THE BLOODY DOORS OFF"

[Roberta2]

There has been some very funny stuff on the internet, including the one where Boris is Hitler. Would be funny, that is, if not so serious. Boris hasn't got the guts to do anything remotely decent. It was always all about him. Delicious that, as the ABC news here put it this morning - he has been stabbed front, back and centre by his own campaign director. Don't think we have ever seen that before. It's sure to lead to a suitable word. "Borification"?? Anyway, he is history now though I presume he might get kicked out of his club and a lot of doors will be closed to him. Meanwhile, on the Labour side, the antics are even more absurd. An old "tankie" clinging to the job, despite being deserted by most of his parliamentary colleagues, being supported by an army of deluded kids. Only the Lib Dems seem to be sane right now.

[winter1]

News that plans by Siemens to export wind turbine blades from a new facility in Hull have been put on hold.

[Roberta2]

+So Mrs May’s proposals appear to suggest she will may take a ‘have your cake and eat it’ approach to the EU negotiations. This will get a cool reception in Brussels where EU leaders have made it very clear there can be no single market access “a la carte” (to mix food metaphors).+ Comment: even the supposedly hardheaded May is deluded. (She still thinks she can get no free movement of labour but access to single market)

[newjez]

This from t'internet should clarify things...

 

 

So, let me get this straight... the leader of the opposition campaigned to stay but secretly wanted to leave, so his party held a non-binding vote to shame him into resigning so someone else could lead the campaign to ignore the result of the non-binding referendum which many people now think was just angry people trying to shame politicians into seeing they'd all done nothing to help them.

 

 

Meanwhile, the man who campaigned to leave because he hoped losing would help him win the leadership of his party, accidentally won and ruined any chance of leading because the man who thought he couldn't lose, did - but resigned before actually doing the thing the vote had been about. The man who'd always thought he'd lead next, campaigned so badly that everyone thought he was lying when he said the economy would crash - and he was, but it did, but he's not resigned, but, like the man who lost and the man who won, also now can't become leader. Which means the woman who quietly campaigned to stay but always said she wanted to leave is likely to become leader instead.

 

 

Which means she holds the same view as the leader of the opposition but for opposite reasons, but her party's view of this view is the opposite of the opposition's. And the opposition aren't yet opposing anything because the leader isn't listening to his party, who aren't listening to the country, who aren't listening to experts or possibly paying that much attention at all. However, none of their opponents actually want to be the one to do the thing that the vote was about, so there's not yet anything actually on the table to oppose anyway. And if no one ever does do the thing that most people asked them to do, it will be undemocratic and if any one ever does do it, it will be awful.

 

 

Clear?

[newjez]

+So Mrs May’s proposals appear to suggest she will may take a ‘have your cake and eat it’ approach to the EU negotiations. This will get a cool reception in Brussels where EU leaders have made it very clear there can be no single market access “a la carte” (to mix food metaphors).+ Comment: even the supposedly hardheaded May is deluded. (She still thinks she can get no free movement of labour but access to single market)

 

 

When my eldest child was at beavers I went along to one of their camps as a parent helper. I was dishing out the lunch, and they had all been served, and most were just about finished. One of the boys came up to me and asked nicely for seconds. Most of the others had finished and were just chatting, and there was food left over, so I thought why not. He took his seconds back to the table. Within a minute I had a queue of fifty boys clambering for seconds. Sadly there wasn't enough, and all hell was breaking loose. The leader came over to me, and she quietly told me that it's always best to say no, unless you are sure you can say yes to everyone. Because as soon as you say yes to one, the others will also ask the question.

 

What does this mean? It means that if the EU gives into the UK, everyone will want the same deal. Obviously everyone can't have the same deal as it would all fall apart. So the answer will be no. Even if that also means it will fall apart.

 

It's just not possible for the UK to come out of this with a better deal than the other 27 nations. There can and will be no reward for leaving.

 

There are those on here who cheer the break up of the EU. They have no idea of the pain that will cause. Try and imagine if that happened to the USA. It would be the end of the world as we know it.

[VERYSTORMY]

Yes, plus the costs of loss of the EU "passport" for the British banks. Very bad news for London. Very good news for Frankfurt, Dublin, Singapore etc. I think what most infuriates a lot of people is that Johnson was better placed than just about anyone else to know this. Don't suppose I will see his dessicated head on London Bridge on my next visit?

 

Really, HSBC, Barclays, Chase have all announced they are in London regardless. At the moment, all we have seen is 3000 Euro traders move

[winter1]

Really, HSBC, Barclays, Chase have all announced they are in London regardless. At the moment, all we have seen is 3000 Euro traders move

 

But will it be at the same level?

[Perthbum]

[newjez]

 

 

How many times do you need this explained?

 

Buying the footsie 100 is effectively buying USD . When the pound falls, the USD rise.

[amibovered]

[Roberta2]

What will the loss of the EU "passport" mean to the banks in the City?

[flag of convenience]

Of course there are a mass of options. At one end of the extreme is two fingers at each other and go to WTO for trade. At the other is EEA which is in effect partial membership. Two very extreme ends of a spectrum. The reality will come somewhere in between.

 

As for calling the shots, given the EU members are not going to want to kill their own economies, then yes, we have serious bargaining power. The members know that they have some huge issues at home including the rise of the far right. Behave in a way that damages their own economies and that will, as it always does, encourage the far right even more - France would likely end up with Le Penn as President if they create even more economic problems that what they already have. The EU generally are well aware of that along with the fact that Le Penn would either pull France out of the EU or hol a referendum - a country with 68% of people currently anti EU would translate to Fraxit and the immediate death of the EU project

 

Madam Le Penn certainly did celebrate the exit with a meal of fish and chips together with the Union flag implanted according to French press reports.

As for the details we shall have to wait. There are two camps of influence within the EU. Yet to see who will prevail. Some do indeed want to UK to pay a price. Too easy an exit is seen as only encouraging others to perhaps follow suit.

An interesting development has been increased support to remaining in EU from Sweden and Finland's Euro sceptic population.

[flag of convenience]

What will the loss of the EU "passport" mean to the banks in the City?

 

Quite frankly I'd be glad to see the exit of any number of bankers from London. (the one good thing that may eventuate from the exit) My reasons being it May return London to being able to be affordable for Londoners. It would come at cost to the nation, so reliant on the financial market, although apparently corrupt to boot. (London being a major centre to laundry money)

 

Who would really profit from a downturn in London house prices I wonder? The fall in the pound and ease of foreigners investing suggests a lot of the gain may well be remaining in the hands of foreigners.

[namron1]

UK needs to move and get out asap, the delay is causing and continuing uncertainty is causing the run on sterling. Once out UK will recover and be the strongest economy in Europe and will be a far better country to live in

[newjez]

UK needs to move and get out asap, the delay is causing and continuing uncertainty is causing the run on sterling. Once out UK will recover and be the strongest economy in Europe and will be a far better country to live in

 

 

Get out quickly with a bad deal, or get out slowly with a better deal? That is the question. As long as we do no real damage, maybe slowly is better?