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JockinTas

Australian housing bubble

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OK from today they are going down 30% in inner Sydney Melbourne or Brisbane? Whens this happening by? Let me know I've got my 20% deposit ready to go in any top Brisbane suburb... Shame you are wrong that would be awesome! Keep shorting!

You seem to be under the impression that when a housing correction takes place the rest of the economy continues at the status quo. It doesn't. I've been through this before. Believe me, most people eager to buy now won't be so eager after a 30% drop.

 

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You seem to be under the impression that when a housing correction takes place the rest of the economy continues at the status quo. It doesn't. I've been through this before. Believe me, most people eager to buy now won't be so eager after a 30% drop.

 

Sent from my Nexus 10 using Tapatalk

 

I didn't assume that at all...

 

I just don't see Greek style unemployment coming...I must be crazy. Feel free to put your time lines down for these big drops of 30% in inner East coast city houses...still waiting

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You seem to be under the impression that when a housing correction takes place the rest of the economy continues at the status quo. It doesn't. I've been through this before. Believe me, most people eager to buy now won't be so eager after a 30% drop.

 

Sent from my Nexus 10 using Tapatalk

 

History does tend to repeat but to an audience that failed to learn the lessons of the past. The system is fully aware of that and as thus can flog their product for all they are obviously not worth.

This time around looks far more serious though. We are having negative interest rates in some countries and far too low in others in order to stimulate economies. Now we know who was responsible for the initial near collapse of capitalism, don't we? Let's see how far down the road the housing can, can be kicked before being kicked off the road completely.

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Timeline?

 

Australias largest ever unemployment is around 11%. Do you see that being smashed? Silly question to Mr doom and gloom. Keep your money under the mattress!

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I didn't assume that at all...

 

I just don't see Greek style unemployment coming...I must be crazy. Feel free to put your time lines down for these big drops of 30% in inner East coast city houses...still waiting

Greeks didn't see it a few years ago either. At the time of the Olympic Games, Hellas looked a marvel in richness and splendour. At least the façade. Nobody is necessary saying a Hellenic like scenario awaits Australia. It may, it may not. There is time to rectify some of the mistakes but it will take courage and result in a lot of pain. Will any government, all rather famous for their ineptness and short term thinking actually pick up the chalice? Your guess as good as mine on that. The signs are not great though at the moment.

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Timeline? You can put a figure on the fall so must be able to date it roughly?

 

You have been calling it for a while while it's been rising so you need a much larger fall than even the 30% to be accurate...

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I didn't assume that at all...

 

I just don't see Greek style unemployment coming...I must be crazy. Feel free to put your time lines down for these big drops of 30% in inner East coast city houses...still waiting

You don't need Greek style economies to have corrections. My parents bought at the peak of the last bubble in Canada where nothing close to Greece happened. I think the average drop in price in Toronto was about 35%. It took my parents 16 years just to get back to the price they paid for it.

 

There will be a correction in Australia. That's a 100% guaranteed certainty. There's no place on earth where real estate goes up forever. The only question is when and by how much. Could be in a few years or a few months. I take no pleasure in saying that, but history repeats itself, repeatedly.

 

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Timeline?

 

Australias largest ever unemployment is around 11%. Do you see that being smashed? Silly question to Mr doom and gloom. Keep your money under the mattress!

You just need to get a little real. It doesn't matter if unemployment is quoited at 10% or 12% . But matters is the income people earn, in the hours they work, along with the prospects of continuing in that job. In a time of static wage increases as well.

 

Fact being house prices are too high for most people to be able to afford. For the live of me I can't see why people don't understand this. Jaw dropping prices may play to the market for a time but the lifetime of servitude and the like will definitely hit home on the social and behaviour psychology of Generation Y at some stage. Whose going to buy those houses?

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Who said it was going up forever? Anyone can see recent rises are unsustainable.

 

But 30% drops? Give me the time line that you think this is going to happen over? Perth even still going up in many suburbs...

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You don't need Greek style economies to have corrections. My parents bought at the peak of the last bubble in Canada where nothing close to Greece happened. I think the average drop in price in Toronto was about 35%. It took my parents 16 years just to get back to the price they paid for it.

 

There will be a correction in Australia. That's a 100% guaranteed certainty. There's no place on earth where real estate goes up forever. The only question is when and by how much. Could be in a few years or a few months. I take no pleasure in saying that, but history repeats itself, repeatedly.

 

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I was shocked to learn recently Perth is 31% more expensive than Vancouver to live. Vancouver I believe is the least affordable city to purchase property in Canada.

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I was shocked to learn recently Perth is 31% more expensive than Vancouver to live. Vancouver I believe is the least affordable city to purchase property in Canada.

The market there has gone nuclear. Amazing consisting there's not much there in the way of work. There's a real problem there of young people leaving as it's so unaffordable.

 

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Thanks for the expertise all based on surfers being quiet on a Tuesday :laugh:

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House prices not doing much here in Adelaide! Perhaps all the first time buyers should buy here....

 

 

Not it the case everywhere, silly prices in the near East suburbs. People paying $800 k for 700m with a property that needs demolishing. Plenty over a million dollars too.


So many wineries ......so little time :yes:

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...There will be a correction in Australia. That's a 100% guaranteed certainty. ...

 

There already has been not that long ago in some parts (eg Brisbane around 4-5 years ago).

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There already has been not that long ago in some parts (eg Brisbane around 4-5 years ago).

 

Yeah I bought in 2013 for less than someone else in our unit block in 2010 did which is quite common. Brisbane housing been relatively flat the last decade. This is why the 30% chat is silly.

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You are the clueless one but OK...

 

Notice you didn't put a time line. So no doubt you will say it again in 5 years after it has risen again. Bit weird how much you have invested in a downturn! But good luck with that...

 

No luck needed. A little research may point the probable way but it appears your stuck will your ill informed assumptions. I invest in reality not fantasy. By the way I was no saying 5 years ago there would be such a dire situation. This has come about during the past three years at most. One would have assumed a correction would have been allowed and we would not be facing such an ordeal.

A rather wasted discussion on this forum, I'm afraid. I suppose migrants prefer to see it as Lotus Land. Fair enough. Of course a few more years more allow you greater insight. At least not the compete denial of the most likely scenario that will pan out.

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Yeah I bought in 2013 for less than someone else in our unit block in 2010 did which is quite common. Brisbane housing been relatively flat the last decade. This is why the 30% chat is silly.

 

So 50% you'd consider outrageous. Fact being prices went up again in Brisbane, but I am not referring to that city in particular, but Australian cities in general. Fact is nobody knows how much they will fall or be allowed to. I see you have an interest in being in denial. Quite possibly considering building a portfolio on investment property even? Now what could go wrong with that?

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Harvey Norman just posted huge profit increases for first half of the year. Hardly a sign of what you think is happening on the ground...

 

Glad I don't have my money under the mattress

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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-25/sydney-house-where-body-lay-for-8-years-sells/7200668

 

I had to check that the area of this plot was correct. $1.1m for an uninhabitable house on 75.88 m2. That's $14.5k per square metre. Mental

 

EDIT: And it's a 2 bed 1 bath!

 

There's a lot of mental about. Aussies belief in housing resembles an orthodox religion. It is hard to break through. But increasingly more with a bit of 'insight' into reality are seriously questioning what is happening. Even to the extent of moving elsewhere. But I still hear talk of housing and buying in cafes etc and it has a while still to run.

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Harvey Norman just posted huge profit increases for first half of the year. Hardly a sign of what you think is happening on the ground...

 

Glad I don't have my money under the mattress

 

You don't get it do you? Why would 'common' folk stop buying when enough still believe in the power of property, regardless of how far they have leveraged themselves. Feeling wealthy through inflated property encourages people to spend. Perceptions matter. You may have noticed no takers for Dick Smiths and 3,000 jobs to go?

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Obviously the house is worthless and the land is worth $1M.

 

There have been beach boxes selling for several hundred thousand in Melbourne also, eg on Brighton Beach.

Really the market determines what the land is worth regardless of what you think.

 

If a new townhouse can be built on a block in a prime location it will be valuable.


I want it all, and I want it now.

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The market there has gone nuclear. Amazing consisting there's not much there in the way of work. There's a real problem there of young people leaving as it's so unaffordable.

 

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So I have been hearing. Homelessness, being one of the unfortunate results on quite some scale. I wonder as well just how it can be sustained with so few jobs and not exactly enormous pay rates in many cases. No doubt the Asian/Chinese influence has played a big part, with overseas Chinese among others buying to get a leg in Canada but not living there. Like Sydney and Melbourne, large actual immigration feed the Ponzi system much to the determent of locals.

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There already has been not that long ago in some parts (eg Brisbane around 4-5 years ago).

 

Doesn't mean not still over priced and certainly no reflection on the general Australian market, that is very much over inflated.

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