Guest spreadingwings Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Lots of facts in here, though I don't have the financial expertise to agree/disagree with them. Anyone else have thoughts on the point of view shared here: that Austalian housing prices will drop by 60%, that the economy will suffer, etc: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
furkew Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 about 18 months ago, everybody was forecasting house prices to drop massively, and the economy to be in a very sad state of affairs, but after a slight drop in prices, they have firmed back up again to the same or above. admittedly the economy is not in great shape, but where Australian retailers suffered with strong overseas currencies causing a lot of Australians to shop online from overseas companies, that has changed with currencies getting stronger, and retailers having to work on lower margins to compete. There are so many determining factors in Australia that can affect the economy, everything is possible, but Its a lot of "ifs" and "buts" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjgibbs Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 For the entire time I've been in Australia 4 years its been the same gray outlook. But we seem to ride the waves and get on with it. I will agree that it is excessively expensive to conduct business here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 about 18 months ago, everybody was forecasting house prices to drop massively, and the economy to be in a very sad state of affairs, but after a slight drop in prices, they have firmed back up again to the same or above. admittedly the economy is not in great shape, but where Australian retailers suffered with strong overseas currencies causing a lot of Australians to shop online from overseas companies, that has changed with currencies getting stronger, and retailers having to work on lower margins to compete. There are so many determining factors in Australia that can affect the economy, everything is possible, but Its a lot of "ifs" and "buts" as well. House prices have been forecast to drop long before eighteen months ago. Interventions have prevented this from happening and now with the lower dollar and massive foreign investors distorting the market. If it was a "free market" things would have panned out differently. Do you really think present conditions are sustainable in a weakened economy? Riding on a wing and a prayer could describe conditions to an extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 For the entire time I've been in Australia 4 years its been the same gray outlook. But we seem to ride the waves and get on with it. I will agree that it is excessively expensive to conduct business here. 4 years is but little time within the bounds of the economic cycle Australia has experienced over the past decades. The downturn takes time just as the build up did in prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Do you really think present conditions are sustainable in a weakened economy? Your crystal ball is as accurate / inaccurate as everyone elses'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrussell Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 If you laid all the economists in the world end to end they would still be pointing in all directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpo1971 Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Your crystal ball is as accurate / inaccurate as everyone elses'.... Some of them can't wait for the recession so that they can log on here and say 'told you so'. They've been building up to it for the 5 or 6 years I've been on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parley Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Its a bit like a car 1 km away from a cliff heading straight for it. "Oh no!" the distant observer cries. "That car is going to go over the cliff. All the people inside will be killed". Then the driver taps the brakes a few times and steers away from the cliff and heads in another direction at a steady pace. Well, we have a thing called the Reserve Bank which acts like the driver of the car. Taps the brakes by applying monetary policy and steers the economy along the desired path. People who foresee doom and gloom and disaster scenarios always tend to ignore the actions of the Reserve Bank to guide the economy through the storm. These disasters seldom if ever happen. The ones that do occur tend to be the surprise ones that no one has foreseen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Your crystal ball is as accurate / inaccurate as everyone elses'.... Hardly a crystal ball. Just a study of economic forecasts and own nonce suggests a far from rosey picture for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Some of them can't wait for the recession so that they can log on here and say 'told you so'. They've been building up to it for the 5 or 6 years I've been on here. While others can't get their heads alone changing realties. Without previous interventions by governments a recession would have been apparent. Afraid the kitty is empty and future governments interventions will only be paid through savings meaning cutbacks on the public purse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Its a bit like a car 1 km away from a cliff heading straight for it."Oh no!" the distant observer cries. "That car is going to go over the cliff. All the people inside will be killed". Then the driver taps the brakes a few times and steers away from the cliff and heads in another direction at a steady pace. Well, we have a thing called the Reserve Bank which acts like the driver of the car. Taps the brakes by applying monetary policy and steers the economy along the desired path. People who foresee doom and gloom and disaster scenarios always tend to ignore the actions of the Reserve Bank to guide the economy through the storm. These disasters seldom if ever happen. The ones that do occur tend to be the surprise ones that no one has foreseen. Such faith in RBA which has given the appearance of being somewhat clueless to date .....A recovery through housing really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Such faith in RBA which has given the appearance of being somewhat clueless to date .....A recovery through housing really? Seems to be working in the UK, for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Hardly a crystal ball. Just a study of economic forecasts and own nonce suggests a far from rosey picture for many. You do come across as trying to talk the market down.. An anti-dote to the estate agent spruikers perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 You do come across as trying to talk the market down.. An anti-dote to the estate agent spruikers perhaps? Would it be that you are suggesting there are not serous issues around the state on over inflated housing in Australia? Of course the situation wouldn't be so dire if not permitted to reach since dizzy heights over the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Seems to be working in the UK, for now at least. Well certainly putting housing out of reach for many in the south of the country at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Well certainly putting housing out of reach for many in the south of the country at least. Such is life. Fifteen years ago, I could have probably stretched myself to buy a house in Notting Hill. Or prior to Peter Mayle's book a nice farmhouse with a few vines in Provence. Sadly, with today's prices I no longer can. C'est la vie, n'est pas? Certainly in my lifetime Mayfair has also been out reach. Affordable housing exists, just further out from the CBDs alas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flag of convenience Posted December 28, 2013 Share Posted December 28, 2013 Such is life. Fifteen years ago, I could have probably stretched myself to buy a house in Notting Hill. Or prior to Peter Mayle's book a nice farmhouse with a few vines in Provence. Sadly, with today's prices I no longer can. C'est la vie, n'est pas? Certainly in my lifetime Mayfair has also been out reach. Affordable housing exists, just further out from the CBDs alas.... Probably longer than fifteen years in Notting Hill as lived on the Bayswater/Notting Hill boundary for many years both before and during the price rise. There are still farm houses available at good prices in good locations in France as in many areas the French don't want them. Certainly during Peter Mayles time prices escalated in Provence and the particular village in question. (been there) Locals none too impressed either. Meanwhile Perth, the fact that real estate increased on the back of a so called boom to make some of the most over inflated property in the world and that folk are required to life a very substantial distance from the CBD,(in less than 10 years) probably more than 15kms + is hardly comparable with London or even la Provenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peach Posted December 29, 2013 Share Posted December 29, 2013 Probably longer than fifteen years in Notting Hill as lived on the Bayswater/Notting Hill boundary for many years both before and during the price rise. There are still farm houses available at good prices in good locations in France as in many areas the French don't want them. Certainly during Peter Mayles time prices escalated in Provence and the particular village in question. (been there) Locals none too impressed either.Meanwhile Perth, the fact that real estate increased on the back of a so called boom to make some of the most over inflated property in the world and that folk are required to life a very substantial distance from the CBD,(in less than 10 years) probably more than 15kms + is hardly comparable with London or even la Provenience. . Whilst I agree that I missed the boat in Notting Hill, houses that were worth £600,000 in 1999 are priced today in the £3,600,000 range. A whole lot of people are now priced out of the inner London suburbs and every year the ring of exclusion gets wider. Same thing has happened in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth (even Canberra has unaffordable multi-million dollar inner suburbs). As for Peter Mayle, he has moved back to provence - although he did recently sell his orginal 'Year in Provence' home for $8,600,000USD. I put it to you that neither of us would want to live in places the French don't want to - and there is a premium to be paid and the places that are desirable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.