Jump to content

You're currently viewing the forum as a Guest
register-now-button_orig.png
and join in with discussions   
ask migration questions
message other members

..and much much more!

Guest TheLege

Aussie Housing Market - To Buy or Not to Buy

Recommended Posts

Just out of interest - how do you qualify for a FHOG? I owned a villa 15 years ago in Perth, so I assume that I wouldn't qualify. But if I bought under my wife's name, who has never owned property in Oz, would we qualify?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I reckon it's well and truly on the way down now. Average prices down 1% in 3months to April, that's 4% annualised. Don't buy now folks if you don't have to. We are so glad we waited. We can wait it out in rented for a year or two until prices have stabilised.

 

http://www.news.com.au/money/property/house-prices-edge-down-in-april-rp-data/story-e6frfmd0-1226066357600

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest aus404

But will it go down compared if you value it compared to a UK house? A lot of us are in that boat.

 

Clearly the OZ market needs a bit of a correction but as much as I'd like it to I can't see it being in the 30%+ stakes that the figures point to ( or as is the case in the US or Ireland.) Property speculation has been the favorite pastime in Oz for much longer and there is less naivety about it being a one way bet, so there is less precipitous leverage. Added to that all these poms keep moving over with half a house worth of cash in the bank ;-)

 

Clearly the $Aus is way overvalued compared to the long term average, it may never go back to where it was but it IS going to come down.

At the same time however, the UK has been staving off any real house price crash for a couple of years by printing money like there is no tomorrow and keeping interest rates at close to zero. That can't go on forever. Rent - mortgage interest payments, is unlikely to be more than capital depreciation even in the much hyped soft landing scenario and selling the house while abroad after it's been rented would be a pita. So it feel like the time to sell is now but the time to buy could be a way off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest dunkyboy

a month ago an article in the West Australian forecast prices in the Perth metro area to drop by a further 8% over the next 12 months, yesterday another article in the West Australian forecast prices in the Perth metro area to rise by 20% by 2014 :arghh:

 

confused.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I posted a few weeks ago to say that I would hold off buying until we see what happens with the market and I still agree with that. My concerns are that new builds in new areas are overvalued and having an impact on the older houses in the same areas.

But I know some people are expecting 30%+ drop in prices. I just can’t see that happening. If I did I could afford to buy an investment property and so could a lot of people that I know, increasing demand again. House prices in the UK dropped by around 30% since 2008 but we are not in the same situation.

The bubble has already burst, we have hit top price and prices are on the way down. But the housing market bubble won’t burst in isolation; the entire economy will be affected. Generally when this happens, lending criteria is tightened, higher deposits are required and there is generally a fall in the value of currency, all these factors need to be considered. Don’t think that a burst in the housing market bubble will make it easier to buy a house, it may become harder. Plus I know people that have been waiting for 7 years for the bubble to burst. That’s nearly $130,000 paid in rent during that time. I am not sure prices will fall enough to justify waiting than long.

I am not writing as someone who purchased in 2008 and is scared of a fall in prices, our house value went up by 25% since we purchased, mainly because we got our land at a good price before the prices went a bit crazy, so if prices fall by 30% taking into account the rent we would have paid between moving into our house and the time it takes for prices to drop to that level again (if they do) I don’t really care. We built a family home so that our kids didn’t have to move house until they fly the nest not to make money. As well as watching what the house prices are doing watch the banks as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I posted a few weeks ago to say that I would hold off buying until we see what happens with the market and I still agree with that. My concerns are that new builds in new areas are overvalued and having an impact on the older houses in the same areas.

 

But I know some people are expecting 30%+ drop in prices. I just can’t see that happening. If I did I could afford to buy an investment property and so could a lot of people that I know, increasing demand again. House prices in the UK dropped by around 30% since 2008 but we are not in the same situation.

 

The bubble has already burst, we have hit top price and prices are on the way down. But the housing market bubble won’t burst in isolation; the entire economy will be affected. Generally when this happens, lending criteria is tightened, higher deposits are required and there is generally a fall in the value of currency, all these factors need to be considered. Don’t think that a burst in the housing market bubble will make it easier to buy a house, it may become harder. Plus I know people that have been waiting for 7 years for the bubble to burst. That’s nearly $130,000 paid in rent during that time. I am not sure prices will fall enough to justify waiting than long.

 

I am not writing as someone who purchased in 2008 and is scared of a fall in prices, our house value went up by 25% since we purchased, mainly because we got our land at a good price before the prices went a bit crazy, so if prices fall by 30% taking into account the rent we would have paid between moving into our house and the time it takes for prices to drop to that level again (if they do) I don’t really care. We built a family home so that our kids didn’t have to move house until they fly the nest not to make money. As well as watching what the house prices are doing watch the banks as well.

UK houses drop by 30% what micky mouse comics do you buy or are you a news paper reporter ?. If I were you I would get new reading material 30%:biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh: Try 12%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest jeza

Good point Danny. Homes are for living in long term, and everyone makes good returns over 10 years or so. House prices in nz are much more expensive than here. The fact that you can build a new house with multiple living areas 30 mins from the city for less than 450,000 is unheard of in nz. Values can and will go up. We have been in the property market for 15 years....waiting for a big fall that whole time...never happened, in fact they doubled in the last 5 years. land sizes are small here, but even the houses on bigger blocks are still built close together...just a longer yard out the back. So noise etc still a possible problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
UK houses drop by 30% what micky mouse comics do you buy or are you a news paper reporter ?. If I were you I would get new reading material 30%:biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh: Try 12%.

 

Depends where you live and how long a timescale you are looking at. My parents, Sister and niece all have their houses on the market and are struggling to sell. My parents have already dropped the price by 15% and still have no joy. They have had a lot of people viewing but they seem to be struggling to get loans.

Everyone hears it's a "buyers market" and holds on that little bit longer to see if the price drops.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest jeza

When first home buyers grant goes, builders will have to start offering townhouses rather than big houses on small blocks as is the current case. Land sizes may seem small now, but we are all just being conditioned for what the government really wants....everyone in townhouses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Depends where you live and how long a timescale you are looking at. My parents, Sister and niece all have their houses on the market and are struggling to sell. My parents have already dropped the price by 15% and still have no joy. They have had a lot of people viewing but they seem to be struggling to get loans.

Everyone hears it's a "buyers market" and holds on that little bit longer to see if the price drops.

What part are you talking about as I am talking Newbury area (south 50miles from london with motorway & train link) & to be honest houses here selling no trouble & prices not far off there peak price say 5% down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What part are you talking about as I am talking Newbury area (south 50miles from london with motorway & train link) & to be honest houses here selling no trouble & prices not far off there peak price say 5% down.

 

Like I said, depends where you live. Parents are in Derbyshire, not far out of Chesterfield, Sister and niece in Melton Mowbray.

Parents house is a semi detached 3 bedroom 2 bath, double glazing all round, big garden, detached garage, in good nick. They are asking 129,950.

 

No joy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well looking at houses that were for sale in 2007 for around £270,000 they are now selling for £170,000 or less so that is more than 30%. Not reading any comics or reports, just monitoring the housing market for myself. OK the average may not be as high as 30%, was using it as a comparison to the predicted 30% reduction in Australia.

There may be some areas that only dropped by 12% but some dropped over 40% apartments in Northern Ireland dropped 44%. Anyway the point I was trying to make is that the UK house prices had a big crash and if people think that the same thing or worse is going to happen in Australia and looking for a 30% reduction in house prices before they buy they may be disappointed. But if it was only 12% in the UK then it will be even less in Australia.

Another factor is that house prices in the UK were more out of line with income than they are in Australia. Therefore less of a correction is required. If a $300k house in Australia was to fall by 30% making it $210k nearly anyone on a single income could afford to buy a house. As nice as that sounds it’s not the way things work, every family would only need one good income to support a family and pay a mortgage, and those days are sadly gone. Like I said the bubble has burst but that doesn’t mean affordable housing for everyone just a correction in pricing that maybe offset by the rent you have paid over the years waiting and hoping that house prices will suddenly drop a huge amount. It all levels out over the years anyway, the only people that will suffer are investors that buy and sell quickly.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Depends where you live and how long a timescale you are looking at. My parents, Sister and niece all have their houses on the market and are struggling to sell. My parents have already dropped the price by 15% and still have no joy. They have had a lot of people viewing but they seem to be struggling to get loans.

Everyone hears it's a "buyers market" and holds on that little bit longer to see if the price drops.

 

Like I said the housing price reduction (not using the term "crash" it is used by the media as it sounds more dramatic) does not happen in isolation, generally getting loans is harder after bubble bursts, like what is happening in the UK.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Like I said, depends where you live. Parents are in Derbyshire, not far out of Chesterfield, Sister and niece in Melton Mowbray.

Parents house is a semi detached 3 bedroom 2 bath, double glazing all round, big garden, detached garage, in good nick. They are asking 129,950.

 

No joy.

What a difference an area makes taking into account how small uk is to oz. My house nearly the same no garage one bathroom rest same was at peak £249,950 (stamp duty) now estate agent price £240,000 my price £225,000- £230,000. Incredable that there can be over £100,000 difference in just a few 100 miles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
UK houses drop by 30% what micky mouse comics do you buy or are you a news paper reporter ?. If I were you I would get new reading material 30%:biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh::biglaugh: Try 12%.

 

If you take into account inflation since 2007 then the total decline in prices has been on the order of 30%.

 

That surprised me too. Though the fact that salaries aren't keeping pace with inflation these days means that it's not really been realised in quite the same way as the economist (who made the point) framed it.

 

Source: The Telegraph.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What a difference an area makes taking into account how small uk is to oz. My house nearly the same no garage one bathroom rest same was at peak £249,950 (stamp duty) now estate agent price £240,000 my price £225,000- £230,000. Incredable that there can be over £100,000 difference in just a few 100 miles.

 

There's always been this difference between the North and South. We bought a house in Gee Cross near Stockport in 1987 and paid 20,000 for it. Typical first time buyers house, end terrace which needed loads of work which we did over the next few years.

Had a job in London and when I was down there I was staying in Teddington. The guys I worked with shared a big house there. They were all single and asked me usual questions. When I told them we had just paid 20,000 for a house they wouldn't believe me. They said you wouldn't be able to buy a dog kennel in London for that price.

Luckily the house prices were going through an upward spiral and when we came to sell the house to emigrate here in 92 we got 50,000 for it. We had just about finished all the renovations though so we didn't have any problems selling it privately.

The first day it was on the market two sets of newly married neighbours said they would have it. Both couples were working with no kids and couldn't get mortgages for 50,000. We ended up selling it to a single girl who's dad was a bank manager.

 

First time we went back on holiday the house was worth over 100,000. Now it's back to about 70,000.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're in Sussex. There was a house last month that came on the market that we liked. It sold in 24hrs. The sale fell through, it was relisted, and sold again in 24hrs. There's nothing for sale where we live, except a few houses that have something odd about them and have been on the market for ages. If anything comes on the market that's decent, it's snapped up by cash buyers. If you have to sell your house to buy, you don't get a look in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest jlr248

Anyone got a crystal ball? So what is going to happen over the next year or 2? Assuming we can sell our house in apalling, slow and deflated UK housing market, will it be worth buying in Oz or indeed will we be able to afford to by in Oz? We are headed for Adelaide, cheaper than some places i know but never the less expensive by northern Uk prices. When just a few years ago we had dreamed of being mortgage free in Adelaide it would seem that we would now need around $200 K mortgage (what with falling exchange rates and opposing property markets). Will the housing market in Australia (well more specifically Adelaide) continue to fall (and rentals climb) over the near future or is this "levelling out" a mere blip? Any insight, opinion or mere speculation will be appreciated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest guest36187

No one knows what will happen! How can they?

 

I'm in brissie and house prices in my area have not dropped. My house has lost no value whatsoever. It has gone up 150,000$ in value from day of purchase.

 

However loads of Brissie properties are not able to claw back the drop in value post floods. Swings and roundabouts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Anyone got a crystal ball? So what is going to happen over the next year or 2? Assuming we can sell our house in apalling, slow and deflated UK housing market, will it be worth buying in Oz or indeed will we be able to afford to by in Oz? We are headed for Adelaide, cheaper than some places i know but never the less expensive by northern Uk prices. When just a few years ago we had dreamed of being mortgage free in Adelaide it would seem that we would now need around $200 K mortgage (what with falling exchange rates and opposing property markets). Will the housing market in Australia (well more specifically Adelaide) continue to fall (and rentals climb) over the near future or is this "levelling out" a mere blip? Any insight, opinion or mere speculation will be appreciated.

 

We have lived in Adelaide for the past 2 years and decided to start looking for a house to buy about 18 months ago. Since we started looking the market seems to have come to a standstill and we are no longer considering buying as the possibility of a UK style drop in prices seems to be on the cards.

 

Australia was 'bought out' of the GFC by the government but it has only delayed the inevitable. I don't think there is anything left in the Government coffers to pay another plasma grant or first time buyers bribe. Therefore Australia will start experiencing the pain felt by the UK and the rest of the developed World and housing prices will probably fall as a result of this plus perhaps the exchange rate will also swing back in your favour. If I were you I would not consider buying in Adelaide for a while. This gives you some breathing space to either sell or decide to rent out your house.

 

I work in recruitment and I would also add that wages in Adelaide are lower than most other states and there is the highest rate of unemployment out of all the states (bar Tasmana?) in SA so make sure there are actually vacancies in your fields of work which pay a decent wage.

 

I don't wish to put a downer on you as Adelaide is a lovely place to live but you must be sure it is a viable move for you.

 

On an upbeat note, if you can secure employment and ride out the economic slump the exchange rate and house prices will swing into your favour at some point if you can be patient.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the latest quarterly figures from RP Data

 

http://www.rpdata.com/images/stories/content/pressreleases/rp_data_rismark_home_value_index_jun_30.pdf

 

Key RP Data-Rismark Index Statistics

•National city dwelling values down -0.3% s.a. (-0.5% raw) in month of May

•National city dwelling values down -1.2% s.a (-1.3% raw) in May qtr

•National city dwelling values down -2.3% s.a. (-2.3% raw) over 12 months

•National city median dwelling price is $470,000

•National rest of state house values -0.1% s.a. (-0.8% raw) in month of May

•National rest of state house values 0 9% s a ( 1 6% raw) in May qtr

•National rest of state house values -0.9% s.a. (-1.6% raw) in May qtr

•National rest of state house values -1.4% s.a. (-1.4% raw) over 12 months

•National rest of state median dwelling price is $325,000

•National median dwelling price (all regions) is $420,000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for that link KY9. It reminds me of Ireland. "Never a Better Time to Buy". I first heard that in 2004. The prices rose and people thought that they made the right decision. Prices are now below those levels. I suppose the major difference between Australia and Ireland is that Australia sells its resources. Ireland gives them away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×