Jobless fall. Hey! Give me my visas I want to join you!

[McKlaut]

Another Australian super news:

 

A SHARP fall in the number of jobless has set the economic stage for the election year, with the government claiming success in economic management while battling rising interest rates and calls for budget cuts.

The unemployment rate fell last month to 5.5 per cent after the fourth consecutive month of rapid jobs growth, confirming the economy is in much better shape than predicted by Treasury just two months ago.

Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard welcomed the fall, saying it demonstrated Australia's strong economic performance during the global downturn. However, she defended the need for only a gradual winding down of the government's stimulus programs: "While it's heartening to see the positive impacts of stimulus, there are still far too many Australians unemployed or working fewer hours than they'd like."

Until yesterday, government ministers had accompanied announcements of good economic news with warnings that the economy was "not out of the woods", with Ms Gillard warning after the big improvement in the previous November jobs figure that Treasury still believed unemployment would reach 6.75 per cent.

Economists now believe the peak in unemployment was the 5.8 per cent reached between June and October last year, and expect the decline in the number of jobless to drop below 5 per cent again later this year.

 

There have now been 135,000 new jobs created in the past four months, matching the performance during the peak of the boom in 2007.

Financial markets believe a further 25-basis-point interest rate increase is almost certain at the Reserve Bank's board meeting next month, although this decision will be influenced by the inflation figure to be reported in two weeks.

However, the government now faces a risk that the official Reserve Bank interest rates will rise considerably higher this year than the 5 per cent predicted by financial markets, particularly if wages and prices start rising more quickly.

"Having raised interest rates during the last election, the Reserve Bank wouldn't be be slow in acting if they thought it was appropriate in the election this year," Access Economics director Chris Richardson said.

He said this risk could force the government to take much tougher decisions in the forthcoming budget than they would have preferred.

While the strength of the jobs market has forced the government to stop using the prospect of further worsening of the outlook to justify its continued stimulus spending, it has put the Coalition into the awkward position of forecasting that the improvement will be short-lived and putting it down to good luck.

"We're not going to keep the unemployment rate low if we drop the bundle on reform, if

we see a continued spend-a-thon by the Rudd government," Tony Abbott said.

"Kevin Rudd is incredibly lucky that he inherited the benefits of 25 years of reform that was begun by Bob Hawke and Paul Keating and then magnificently continued by John Howard and Peter Costello."

The opposition's employment spokesman, senator Mathias Cormann, dismissed the result as only "a slight improvement" and blamed the government for the rise in long-term unemployed since December 2007, without referring to the global financial crisis that occurred in the interim.

The jobs figures show the resource states of Queensland and Western Australia are beginning to reassert their leadership of economic growth.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said the rebound in employment was being led by finance and the property industries, both of which shed a lot of staff during the downturn, while mining was also strong. "The economy has turned around more quickly than anyone expected.

"All the leading indicators are pointing to continued rapid improvement, with a big increase in vacancies, and surveys showing companies are increasing their hiring plans."

Saul Eslake, the program director at the Grattan Institute, said the Reserve Bank would be concerned that the economy was entering an upturn with less spare capacity and higher inflation than previous recoveries.

Mr Eslake said the unexpected strength of the economy increased pressure on the government to reduce budget spending.

He said this would not have to be done through winding back the stimulus, but could be achieved by cutting other programs.

[Guest KatyNick]

Thanks for posting this.

 

We received an e-mail from a friend of ours in Perth and he reported that it is headline news on the radio regarding the skill shortage. Lets all just pray that Mr Evans listens to the States (especially WA, who seem to shouting the loudest) and instruct DIAC to process Cat 5s more quickly.

 

I'm not getting excited about getting our visa until I start seeing those who applied prior to 23rd Sept who didn't previously have a CO, getting processed.

[Guest Off to the Sun]

A bit of good news for Qld tradies??? Where's my visa??? Lol

 

Queensland housing industry hit by skills shortage

 

 

Article from:

 

• January 14, 2010 12:00am
  

THE Queensland housing industry is facing a skills shortage of 16,000 workers this financial year, with a national gap of up to 65,000 by 2012.

The Housing Industry Association said that the industry had lost more than 4000 building apprentices during the financial crisis and fewer people were taking up a career in any of the critical trades.

Apprentice start and completion rates have consistently declined over the past decade, according to HIA managing director Shane Goodwin.

"Almost 60 per cent of apprentices in key trades cancel within the first two years," he said. "Furthermore, 40 per cent of tradespeople have no formal qualifications and acquire their skills on the job because the formal training system doesn't meet industry needs."

With about 190,000 dwellings a year required to meet underlying demand for housing, Mr Goodwin said the residential construction industry was almost certainly going to face a skills crunch.

But Hutchison Builders managing director Greg Quinn said while there was strong demand for construction workers, that would fall off when the Government's stimulus tailed off later this year. He said his company was anticipating a 10 per cent downturn in business over the next year, so did not consider labour shortages a major risk.

The issue emerged as economists predicted that official data to be released today would show that about 30,000 jobs were created in December – although the unemployment rate could rise, with thousands of school and university students entering the job market.

The Retailers Association yesterday continued to attack the Federal Government over its new workplace laws which, it claimed, would lead to about 3000 job losses this year because of increased costs.

Executive director Scott Driscoll said the Federal Government had rejected the claim but had not been able to disprove it.

"If they had their own credible information they would have shot me down in five minutes," he said.

He said the Government had contacted him to get a copy of the survey his association commissioned which showed that 90 per cent of its members would cut jobs this year.

[Guest Andy]

This all sounds quite encouraging, does anybody think that there is any hope of trades like bricklaying ( mine ) being put back on the csl anytime soon?

[McKlaut]

This all sounds quite encouraging, does anybody think that there is any hope of trades like bricklaying ( mine ) being put back on the csl anytime soon?

I don't think that CSL will be renewed at all. Instead it will be replaced by new migration procedures.

All we can expect positive of this news that the new year quota have chances to be raised up and more migrants will be welcomed.

[Mongrel]

Thanks for posting this.

 

We received an e-mail from a friend of ours in Perth and he reported that it is headline news on the radio regarding the skill shortage. Lets all just pray that Mr Evans listens to the States (especially WA, who seem to shouting the loudest) and instruct DIAC to process Cat 5s more quickly.

 

I'm not getting excited about getting our visa until I start seeing those who applied prior to 23rd Sept who didn't previously have a CO, getting processed.

 

Get in the real world . in Wa unless you are in the johnno club you will still srtruggle

[Mongrel]

I don't think that CSL will be renewed at all. Instead it will be replaced by new migration procedures.

All we can expect positive of this news that the new year quota have chances to be raised up and more migrants will be welcomed.

 

Bollox , theres blokes here unsure of work tradies undercutting each other for jobs , its not what you know but who and thr pay has dropped becaus you are in a job and poms arnt the unique migrants to australia ,its the same as the uk ,asians are employed at lower rates

[Guest Kangaroo]

Adelaide Advertiser

January 08, 2010 12:01am

 

SOUTH Australians will be forced to wait up to 15 months for their new homes to be built, a peak industry group warns.

An ageing workforce and a lack of apprentices has resulted in a skills shortage across the construction industry which is expected to blow out waiting times for a new home.

Industry leaders say school building work and a flood of first-home buyers using the Federal Government's stimulus package has created a demand that trades are unable to meet.

Finding a tradesperson has become more difficult with a moderate under-supply being experienced nationally, the latest Housing Industry Association trades report reveals.

Worst affected trades are ceramic tiling, plumbing, electrical, roofing and landscaping. All have experienced a significant fall in availability.

Master Builders Association chief executive Rob Stewart said unless more people were attracted to the industry, buyers would need to wait longer for their homes to be built.

"Going a few years back it would take 12 weeks but now people have to be realistic," Mr Stewart said. "I would say realistically people are looking at 12 to 15 months."

HIA chief executive businesses Brenton Gardner said houses would take longer to build but he was more conservative in his estimate.

"I would normally say work on project-style houses taking four to five months but construction times are likely to increase by two to three months depending on the severity of the shortage," Mr Gardner said.

"Trades are less available and it is beginning to blow out and is likely to continue to stretch.

"Most recently, with the Federal Government stimulus package with schools work and the First Home Buyer Grant, the amount of building work available has created a demand that trades are unable to meet."

AV Jennings general manager of contract building in SA, John Howarth, said the company expected construction times to increase this year.

"I would say the average time this year will be around the eight-month mark," Mr Howarth said.

"We give a 26-week guarantee, where if we don't meet that we pay your rent, so that will be a burden to us."

Hickinbotham and Devine Homes also were contacted by The Advertiser yesterday but declined to comment.

Painter James Lucas, working on a house at Fullarton yesterday, said it was taking longer for houses to be built.

"As far as I know there is lots and lots and lots of work out there in both residential and commercial," Mr Lucas said.

"Tradesmen tend to go with the more commercial stuff because it's a bit easier, there's more money and with big jobs you can be on site for a year."

[Mongrel]

This all sounds quite encouraging, does anybody think that there is any hope of trades like bricklaying ( mine ) being put back on the csl anytime soon?

 

Ask Lee (Brooksey) he had 6 weeks work up to xmas and after that he did not know ,he`s achippie , also read on the net news the uk is on the up .

[mlsdq]

OMG! The best news i have heard so far since I joined this forum. I hope there will be more BEST news to come! At least states still want us to be part of them.

 

Let's wait!

[Guest The Ropey HOFF]

Ask Lee (Brooksey) he had 6 weeks work up to xmas and after that he did not know ,he`s achippie , also read on the net news the uk is on the up .

 

Hi yorkshirepom,

 

when you say you have heard that things are on the up in the uk, do you mean uksbekistan, because its dire in the united kingdom and as for tradies being under cut on their money, there are stories abound that the Poles and other EU tradies are offering to work for as little as 2 pounds an hour and thats on top of the worst recession in uk history and 3 million unemployed.

 

Not to worry, Gormless Gordon will soon be given the boot, at last and then things will pick up when the Lizard Cameron gets in, NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Just on the news 10,000 proper jobs lost like car manufacturing, banking and steel workers etc, but hey the good news is Asda are setting on 200 to stack their shelves in their supermarkets, so its not all doom and gloom.

 

jim.:chatterbox:

[Guest jessijessi]

Good news!

 

May this jobless fall bring advantage for immigration!!!

 

Cheers

[philip21]

Good news but hard to believe unless somebody from western australia can confirm this. Please lads give us little hope?

[McKlaut]

Good news but hard to believe unless somebody from western australia can confirm this. Please lads give us little hope?

Strange people. :wink:

You don't believe large numbers but ready to assume somebody's subjective experience.

There are as many opinions and experiences as people in this world. Somebody might say to you "Hey, come in there are loads of jobs here!". At the same time the other guy will say "I cannot find job anywhere!! It's terrible here!"

 

But only large numbers can give a hint to a real situation. And today that hint says "our course - recovery!"

[philip21]

Sorry McKlaut I did not mean that this is not a truth, i just so worry because of this changes. Still waiting for sponsorship 6 month and Just so confused. Your posts is very helpful!!! Probably I just want more aptemistic news like every one on this forum. Thank you so much to keep our spirits up!!!

[Guest Kangaroo]

Job figures hold up

 

15 Jan 2010

The latest employment figures continue to show record numbers of South Australians in jobs, which has now reached 103,700 new jobs since the Rann government came to office in 2002.

Read more: http://www.southaustralia.biz/Media/2010/01/15/Job-figures-hold-up.aspx

[Guest Kangaroo]

SOUTH Australia saw the biggest drop in unemployment in January nationally, down to 4.4 per cent from 5.2 per cent in December. South Australia leads jobless rate fall at 4.4pc | Adelaide Now

[McKlaut]

SOUTH Australia saw the biggest drop in unemployment in January nationally, down to 4.4 per cent from 5.2 per cent in December. South Australia leads jobless rate fall at 4.4pc | Adelaide Now

 

Oh thanks for monthly reminder. Almost forget that today is a second Thursday of a month - job data reliase date.

 

So:

 

AN interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank in March emerged today as a renewed prospect, after Australia's unemployment rate dropped to a one-year low of 5.3 per cent.

 

The surge in employment surprised economists who had expected the jobless rate to stay steady at 5.5 per cent.

 

In January, there were 15,900 full-time positions created and 36,900 new part-time jobs.

 

The unemployment rate in Australia is now at the lowest rate since February last year, after defying expectations it would deteriorate during the economy’s recovery from the global financial crisis.

 

The unexpected result prompted futures market to rally on the prospect of a 25 basis point increase the official cash rate, when the board meets on March 2. Ahead of the jobs numbers, the market had judged the likelihood of a rate hike at just 26 per cent, but that has now been pushed to as high as 50 per cent.

 

The Australian dollar surged almost US1c, on the news to from US87.70c to US88.53c on the expectation that interest rates will be increased by a quarter-point to 4 per cent.

 

But Citi analyst Joshua Williamson said he expected the RBA to keep rates steady at its next policy-setting meeting.

 

"The reasons for the RBA pausing in February are still relevant; access to credit for small business remains an issue, the widening in the spread between the cash rate and lending rates, weaker short-term housing finance data and the RBA’s benign inflation outlook," Mr Williamson said in a note to clients.

 

"In addition, the domestic data has taken a back-seat to European developments.

 

"The RBA will look for some improvement to the Club Med sovereign debt issue before raising domestic interest rates. We retain the call for no change in the cash rate in March and look for the RBA to recommence monetary tightening in either April or May, with the risks tilted to April."

 

UBS economist George Tharenou said the labour market in Australia was showing “renewed vigour”.

 

However, he said there was a chance that rate of job creation could slow in the next few months given the strong run over the past six months.

 

The unemployment rate has fallen 0.5 per cent over the past four months.

 

"While some moderation from the current four-and-a-half per cent annualised pace of job creation seems likely, there's almost no doubt that we've passed the peak in the unemployment rate," Mr Tharenou said.

 

"There is also a greater support to household income growth than previously thought which can have positive self-reinforcing effects on the economy.

 

"The job data poses an increased risk of a near-term rate hike by the RBA, although this comes against a backdrop of heightened concerns over sovereign debt issue which are still lingering since the RBA decided to hold rates steady unexpectedly in February."

 

The constant decrease in the jobless rate is also expected to add pressure to the Treasury to update its unemployment forecasts in the May Budget.

 

In its mid-year update released in December, the Treasury predicted unemployment would be 6.25 per cent in 2009-10 before tracking higher to 6.5 per cent the following year.

 

The Treasury had initially forecast in the budget last year that unemployment would track as high as 8.5 per cent in 2010-2011.

 

The government claimed, at the time, that its fiscal stimulus package would reduce unemployment by 1.5 percentage points.

[McKlaut]

And a bit more details across states:

 

Australia’s jobless rate has fallen to an 11-month low, with economists flagging the prospect of an interest rate hike next month.

 

Unemployment dropped to 5.3 per cent in January, a fall of 0.2 percentage points, new figures showed this morning. It was the lowest rate of unemployment since February 2009.

 

In a stunning result that shocked financial markets, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said employment increased 52,700 in January, of which 36,900 were part-time jobs.

 

There are now a record 10.97 million people in work.

 

The number of people out of work fell 22,300, or 3.5 per cent to 612,000. There was a sharp fall of 17,900 in the number of people looking for full-time work which stands at 444,600.

 

The participation rate stayed steady at 65.3 per cent, while actual hours worked fell 14.8 million hours or one per cent.

 

In WA, the unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage points to 5 per cent. There was a 1600 pick-up in full-time work, to 824,600, although part-time worker numbers dropped 100.

 

Elsewhere, the jobless rate fell in NSW (to 5.6 per cent), Queensland (to 5.5 per cent), South Australia (to 4.4 per cent) and the Northern Territory (to 3.3 per cent).

 

It was steady in Victoria (at 5.3 per cent) and Tasmania (5.2 per cent) while it increased to 3.8 per cent in the ACT.

 

RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong said the jobs data was an “unambiguously” strong report and added to the case for an increase in interest rates.

 

"I will put my hand up - I was not looking at an increase, let alone one this big,” Ms Ong said.

 

"The headline print above 50,000 and the upward revisions plus the drop in the unemployment rate with participation managing to rise slightly - it is an extraordinarily strong report.

 

"Not only does it confirm the unemployment rate has actually peaked, but it also suggests the economy is not far from full-employment.

 

"The headline print above 50,000 and the upward revisions plus the drop in the unemployment rate with participation managing to rise slightly - it is an extraordinarily strong report.

 

"Not only does it confirm the unemployment rate has actually peaked, but it also suggests the economy is not far from full-employment.

 

She said the strong labour market would pressure economic capacity and subsequently costs and prices, adding to the case for an official rate rise by the Reserve Bank of Australia on March 2.

 

"Despite the RBA’s rather puzzling steady decision last week, with the need to see further data, it has got to keep a rate hike on the table for March,” she said. "It is very much a live meeting, these are key numbers that the RBA watches.

 

"It will fuel their concerns that there is less considerable capacity than previously thought."

 

Ahead of the figures' release, Treasury officials told a Senate estimates committee that while unemployment was remarkably low there was still a great deal of spare capacity in the economy.

 

Senior official David Gruen said the large fall in hours worked by people effectively masked the true level of the unemployment rate.

 

He added that while wage pressures would grow as unemployment fell, they were some time off.

"We don't anticipate it's going to lead to these pressures for some time," he said.

 

Buzz u

[the dougans]

thanks all for information, looks more promising !!!