Guest The Pom Queen Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Almost anyone who owns real estate would give their second garage to know what will happen to prices in the future. Will they go up and, if so, by how much? Where will this happen, and when? What is the house and unit price outlook across Australia in 2020? To give our crystal ball a solid foundation, we asked CoreLogic RP Data for a statistical snapshot of prices and sales in all capital cities in February 2010. We also asked for comparative sale numbers and median sale prices from February 2015. Hopefully, this five-year snapshot will reveal trends that help us forecast what lies ahead for Australia’s capital city housing markets. So here’s the low-down: According to Cameron Kusher, CoreLogic RP Data’s Senior Research Analyst, “the standout message” is that Sydney, and to a lesser degree Melbourne, has been the star performer over the past five years. “All the others (capital cities) have been fairly muted,” Kusher says. “One question people often ask is ‘why haven’t all the markets grown equally when recent interest rates cuts are national’? “Well the reason we have seen such strong growth in Sydney and not in other markets is more because of overseas migration to Sydney, which has been fairly strong because of its job opportunities, because New South Wales’s migration away has been low since 2010 and also because there’s a shortfall in housing. Sydney CBDSydney is seeing a strong rise in both nominal and real home values. Overseas migration to Sydney has shot up growth in the city. “It is these factors that have all contributed to its price rises, whereas Brisbane and Perth both experienced losses, in South Australia, the Olympic Dam extension didn’t go ahead and that impacted Adelaide’s market, Hobart has been weak economically for the past decade and Darwin and Canberra are both strongly tied to government spending, which has been largely curbed in recent years. “The takeaway message is Australia’s property market is far from a one-size-fits-all.” What housing trends do the experts see in the next 5 years? While interest rates stay historically low, Sydney and Melbourne’s house prices will continue to grow, Kusher says. “It is hard to see that happening as strongly as it has this past five years but as long as the fundamentals remain, there will be growth. As interest rates start to rise, we will see this growth tapering.” Investor Nathan Birch, Co-Founder of Binvested, agrees there’ll be “a couple more years of solid growth” in Sydney. “Maybe not quite the double-digit growth we’ve seen in the previous few years, as there is still a shortage of supply and a strong confidence level based around the historically low interest rates,” Birch says. “I see Victoria, Western Australia and the ACT staying flat or maybe even coming down a bit from current levels.” Staying put: Aussies holding onto their homes for longer Stefan Miraglia, Director of Independent Property Consulting, thinks the outlook for Adelaide is positive. Mile End home in AdelaideThe New York Times named Adelaide a top ‘place to go’ earlier in the year. “Many experts are tipping that we should see some good growth over the next five years if you buy in the right areas and invest wisely,” Miraglia says. “Record low interest rates have tempted many investors to get back into the market and more potential first home buyers are looking to get into the market. “This alone should see median house prices move up over the next five years but also throw into the mix the Chinese who are looking to invest abroad and we should see some good growth of around 5% per annum.” But there’s also some likely upswing ahead for Hobart and Brisbane, predicts Kusher. Brisbane may grow, now that former government’s public job cuts are over. “You will probably start to see some growth in these cities, particularly as Sydney and Melbourne prices push higher and some homeowners decide to sell up and retire to cities with lower price points. “Brisbane may start to grow, given its government has just changed and all the former government’s public job cuts are over. “Adelaide will be impacted by the car industry closing down in coming years – that will have some impact on home prices – Perth has been impacted by the fall in commodities and this will continue for some time and Canberra could go either way, particularly if we do see a change in government between now and 2020.” http://www.realestate.com.au/blog/what-lies-ahead-for-housing-prices-in-2020/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peachy Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 We are starting to think about buying - interesting stats, particularly the lack of growth in Brisbane thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Pom Queen Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 We are starting to think about buying - interesting stats, particularly the lack of growth in Brisbane thus far. Have a look at the other thread though, over 20 years it looks brighter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul1Perth Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 All these forecasters would be lucky to get it right for 20 months, let alone 20 years TPQ.:rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Que Sera Sera Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I thought house prices were supposed to be going down not up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The Pom Queen Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I thought house prices were supposed to be going down not up? I think they will go down in some areas but they are talking about a twenty year period so I would hope by then they all have gone way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve99 Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I think they will go down in some areas but they are talking about a twenty year period so I would hope by then they all have gone way up. You haven't got kids that will need housing in the future then? Is it better that they can buy with sensible savings and repayments and actually get the place paid off (like all previous generations) or conversely is it better they stay at home till they are 35 then take out an insane mortgage that commits 2 buyers for a solid 30 years and not only that have to live a lot further from work or yourself perhaps? Prices going up in an environment of flat/falling wages and patchy work/career prospects is nothing more than bank promoted inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amibovered Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 Hmm, I'm not so sure that what has happened in the last 5 years will be much of a guide to the next 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wooba Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 I think they will go down in some areas but they are talking about a twenty year period so I would hope by then they all have gone way up. My parents bought in 1989 in Canada. This was the peak of the last bubble. Prices went down for about six years before starting to recover. It was about 2005 before they could even get what they paid for it. It would be dangerous to assume that even over 20 years prices will go way up. Especially after there's already been many years of historic growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newjez Posted October 4, 2015 Share Posted October 4, 2015 In twenty years time retirement villages will be a growth market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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