Roberta2

early casualty of Brexit?

Both major parties are in total disarray. No one can predict the outcome. It's not a matter of what I wish for. And it's got nothing to do with a constitution - the UK doesn't have one in the sense of a written constitution. What it does have is parliamentary practice. If a PM cannot command a majority on the floor of the house, he/she has to go to the Queen and say so. She then asks if anyone else can command a majority. If the answer is no- which it almost invariably is - then a general election must be held. I think a major realignment of political parties is a likely outcome. And that the breakup of the UK is on the cards. Corbyn is being pushed hard to resign because Labour knows that an election is very likely, very soon. It's more or less a total mess.

Boris did not look on the weekend like a man anxious to step up to the plate. Playing tennis at Althorpe etc. No talking to the media. Hiding. Rather, he seemed to be realising the enormity of the nativist and racist forces he has released, how much the City and most of London hates his guts, and is very unwilling to grasp what he knows is a poisoned chalice.

Parliamentary democracy is a very different thing from populism. Political Science 101. Which might well be the crux of the issue right now. Presumably Cameron's successor must reflect the outcome of the referendum, and be a Brexiteer. There are 330 Tory MPs. But there is only 1 UKIP MP. There are 229 Labour members and 56 Scottish nationalists. 8 Lib Dems. I don't know the exact split among the Tories on Brexit. Does anyone? But the numbers are certainly against the Brexiteers. But on this issue, if Cameron's successor is a Brexiteer, he/she will not be able command a majority on the floor of the Commons. Hence there will have to be a new election, and soon. (One of the reasons Labour needs to dump Corbyn asap.) The Lisbon Treaty cannot be invoked unless a British prime minister officially informs the EU that Britain wants to leave. No British Prime Minister in modern times has ever made a decision critical to the nation's future without being able to say he/she could command a majority on the floor of the Commons. Even in the darkest days of the war, when Churchill was at the head of a unity government, he would have had to resign if he could not continue to command the Commons. Stable parliamentary democracies resolve their crises by elections, as Australia did during the constitutional crisis of 1975. Maybe all is not lost. A lot of people are now staring into the abyss. The crisis could yet be moved out of the populist orbit so loved by UKIP into the arena of traditional parliamentary democracy, where it belongs.Of course, there could well be major alignments of political parties. The Tories will split, presumably. ?????????????????

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's chief of staff, Peter Altmaier, was reported as saying: "Politicians in London should have the possibility to reconsider the consequences of an exit." Hmmm. Nicola Sturgeon and Angela Merkel in cahoots? Sturgeon has certainly thrown a spanner in the works, though I strongly suspect that she has had legal advice that her ploy is a bluff. But it might help buy time. Time for what? For Labour to get rid of that useless Corbyn, for starters. For the contradictions in the Leave campaign to become more and more obvious. As people become more aware of what it means for their pensions, and the future of their grandchildren etc etc. How many have now signed that petition for another referendum? 3 million last I heard. Referenda are not enshrined in the British constitution - which is not a written document anyway. (The writers of the Australian constitution were aware of the dangers of populism - which is why so few referenda succeed - you need a majority of voters in a majority of states.) The parliament in Westminister is sovereign. It's a numbers game now, on the floor of the House of Commons. Maybe not all is lost yet...But it is the biggest upheaval in UK politics since when...Suez in 1956???

Is there any odious left wing regime on the planet that Pilger has not been an apologist for? Do we hear him complaining about Putin using "outlawed" weapons - thermite bombs etc- against civilian targets in Aleppo?

I presume that the UK, once out of the EU, will have to negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU that will have to include free movement of people. One of the big differences, of course, is that Britain will be negotiating from a position of weakness. As to immigration from non EU countries, yes the Australian point system might be seen as a good model. There could also be bilateral negotiations with individual countries such as Australia, NZ and Canada that would involve reciprocal work rights etc. (We hear a lot from the conservatives about the virtues of the so-called Anglosphere.) Like for example, our bilateral agreement with New Zealand. New Zealand citizens can come to Australia without visas. However, they no longer get the welfare benefits they once did. That is mostly because New Zealand allows unrestricted immigration from islands in the South Pacific. Once in NZ, they can easily get NZ citizenship. Every NZ Prime Minister who gets into office complains about this - as he/she must, given domestic imperatives. But it is unlikely to change. The ALP did not change these arrangements when it was in office federally. Australia is also negotiating a series of agreements with Singapore, which might eventually lead to Australians and Singaporeans having reciprocal work rights etc. I don't claim to be an expert on immigration matters....

He will have to be blasted out of (shadow) office. Half the shadow cabinet has deserted him, and he is still digging in. Changed party rules make it much harder for Labour to get rid of duds like him. Structures do matter! Of course, he can't last. But he is doing his best to invoke a sense of deepening crisis. Just wait until global markets open today.

If parliament votes to endorse the results of the referendum, article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty most certainly will be invoked.

Is there any chance that Scotland can now help throw a spanner in the works in Westminster, given the rising tide of recognition throughout the UK that almost everything the Remain camp warned against is now coming to pass? There is turmoil in both major parties. "Mutti" Merkel is holding the leash on those in the EU bent on unleashing the Dogs of Brexit. Will Boris (presuming he becomes PM) have the numbers in the chamber? Once parliament votes to endorse the results of the referendum there will be no turning back. The petition to have another referendum now has three million signatures. Does that mean anything? Continuing turmoil in global markets will be the backdrop to all this, of course.

Well, the Labour Party had better get itself an electable leader, lickety-spit. What folly it was to open up the leadership election to anyone willing to spend a quid or two. Left wing populism was the inevitable result. Back to the bad old days of Michael Foot. The Welsh Windbag will indeed be rolling in his grave. With a better leader, the Labour Party may have been able to prevent this disaster. It's not just Boris! Plenty of folly and miscalculation all round. Populism - either of the left or right- is the enemy of democracy. We have ours here, of course. Not least in Queensland. But the leaders of both major political parties are now aware of this, and and with luck the populists will be kept in their boxes. (Praying that Pauline Hanson does not get to control the balance of power in the Senate. She's still banging on about Muslims, Chinese etc.) Poor Queen. Her 90th birthday celebration, which seemed to be going so well, has turned to dross, as the UK breaks up before her eyes. Not that I'm a monarchist, but...

I forgot to mention that Norway has had to agree to free migration, no?

Australia's trade with Britain is now less than 3% of our total trade. There are very few people here who don't thing this is an unmitigated disaster. The only politician who supported it was former prime minister John Howard. He is widely regarded as being pickled in aspic. Not even former prime minister Tony Abbott supported Brexit. Howard, to my knowledge, has not said a thing lately. He is no longer responsible for running anything anyway. As to the Norwegians - have they not warned Britain of the dangers of emulating them. Yes, the UK might still enjoy the benefits of free trade, but it will no longer have any say in setting the rules.

I wonder whether the election of Siddique Khan as Mayor of London made things worse. i.e. the gap between London and Most of the Rest became even more glaring? On immigration and a host of other issues.

I follow Australian politics fairly closely, but not UK politics. Ours had been considered somewhat volatile, with five prime ministers in about six years. Certainly volatile compared with what we had been used to. But British politics now will give a new meaning to the word. I had wondered if there was scope for a Lib Dem comeback. I guess they sort of disappeared when everything was so polarized. Now it's all been blown apart, so can they start picking up the pieces? As for Boris, what's Latin and Greek for the Law of Unintended Consequences? The Greeks of course have plenty to say about hubris.

You could well be right. If so, one of history's great miscalculations. He's got a poisoned chalice now. Apart from anything else, Westminster will be clogged with some 80,000 pages of legislation that has to be rescinded. If it's not all done within two years, the UK will be out anyway. Can't see either Boris or Corben lasting too long. Boris must be really really popular in the City now.

Interesting comment. Would be interested to know the evidence. I suppose he has always thought he was much cleverer than anyone else. I had thought that his main calculus was to propel himself into the British prime ministership. That he thought Cameron's job was rightfully his.

Banks based in London rely on an “EU passport” to operate freely across Europe’s financial markets while having most of their staff and operations in the UK capital. But François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the governing council of theEuropean Central Bank, warned that the City could no longer expect to enjoy a similar arrangement in the future. “If tomorrow Britain is not part of the single market, the City cannot keep this European passport,” Villeroy, who is also governor of the French central bank, told France Inter radio.

They undoubtedly would have, had the referendum succeeded. If you think that was an idle threat, you'd be mistaken.

Why would international banks moving out of London - as many now will - go to Edinburgh rather than say Frankfurt?

The fact that Britain needs the EU far more than the EU needs Britain is going to be made very clear very fast. Britain is a relatively small country which has delusions about itself. Merkel is trying to restrain the French and others out to teach the Brits a lesson in reality, but her ability to do so is limited. For starters, British banks will no longer enjoy the "passport rule", by which they were treated as if they were part of the Euro zone. Something that you would have expected Boris to know. American and other global banks are already planning to move operations out of London to Frankfurt etc. Hard to see how a global recession will be avoided.

I see that Cornwall voted solidly for Brexit, but now wants reassurances that its EU subsidies will not be cut!!! Looks like the Culture of Entitlement is going to have some reality checks, in various places.

question re the Scots. They (or most of them) seem to think that if they have another referendum and succeed in exiting the UK, the EU will welcome them with open arms. But preconditions for entering the EU as a sovereign state would be quite strict. The Europeans are likely to think the Scots will be net beneficiaries, no? Their main asset - North Sea oil - is declining both in production and in price (because of US shale oil, fracking etc) Now in effect mendicants in the UK. And are the Scots seriously proposing that there be an international border on what is now mainland Britain? I also assume that if the Scots were successful in getting into the EU, they would have to be in the Eurozone as well. i.e. they would have to cede sovereignty over their currency and interest rates in effect to the Bundesbank? (Question asked out of sheer curiosity and a conversation with my UK based son. No skin in the game)

You can also hire car seats. That can tide you over until you decide what to buy. There is a consumer's organisation called Choice. Also many parents' forums etc. You can buy second hand ones too,but you need to be careful that they conform to the current standards.

Hanson - not a joke at all. She has a good chance of getting a Senate seat in Queensland in a double dissolution federal election. About 4% of the vote might be enough to get her a quota. Even worse, she could end up holding the balance of power in the Senate. Queensland is a very rural state - five times the population of Victoria. Has a long history of populism and nativism. (The very sentiments that fuelled Brexit, no?)