What's my chance? Should I proceed?

[Billie Jean]

Hi all,

I'm an offshore engineer and I score 90 points for a SC189, 95 for a SC190 and 105 for a SC491. What are my chances of getting an invite for a 189? what about the others?

An agent told me today that Australia has permanently terminated issuing skilled visas to offshore applicants and that my chances are slim. Is there any truth to this?

Also for my own benefit, which of the three visas types is the best?

Thanks

Edited November 12, 2020 by Billie Jean

[wrussell]

Quote

An agent told me today that Australia has permanently terminated issuing skilled visas to offshore applicants and that my chances are slim. Is there any truth to this?

No.

It might pay you to consult one of the registered migration agents who posts on this forum for a detailed assessment of your case and advice about strategy.

[Marisawright]

I wouldn't go back to that agent because he doesn't know what he's talking about.  Use one of the agents (like wrussell) on these forums.

Australia hasn't permanently terminated issuing skilled visas to offshore applicants.  The quotas have been reduced and at the moment, only "priority occupations" (i.e. medical staff) are getting visas.  But that's only because of Covid.    Unemployment is soaring due to Covid restrictions and naturally, the government doesn't want to import more people if locals are unemployed - it's not a good look politically.  Once the dust has settled - though who knows when that might be - they'll start up again.

The problem for you is that even before Covid, you needed over 90 points to stand a chance of getting a 189 visa. With the quotas slashed, you might need 95 or 100 points when things start up again.  We just don't know. 

Which one is best?  The 189, obviously.  You are a permanent resident immediately and you are free to live and work anywhere in Australia from day one.  

The 190 is second best, because (again) you are a permanent resident immediately.  However you must live and work in your sponsoring state for the first two years.

The 491 - once upon a time I'd have said, "This isn't a temporary visa, it's a provisional one.  The whole point of the visa is to attract migrants to country areas, so it's in the government's interest to make sure you transition to PR at the end of the probationary period".   Covid has proved that isn't true, because 491 holders have been treated very shabbily.

Edited November 12, 2020 by Marisawright

[Wanderer Returns]

As I understand it, they've heavily reduced the skilled stream and increased the family stream so that the total planned for next year remains the same at 160,000 visas. It would appear to be a political (cynical?) move so that the government can claim they haven't 'stopped immigration', but the reality is they will reduce it dramatically because the uptake of partner visas is generally much lower. One of my friends was trying to get in on the State Nomination route and has had his hopes dashed. if there's a way in for you a good MA will find it - good luck.

[paulhand]

1 hour ago, Wanderer Returns said:

but the reality is they will reduce it dramatically because the uptake of partner visas is generally much lower.

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘uptake’?
 

What the change means is that the Government will use this year to make inroads into the huge backlog of partner visa applications in the system, particularly onshore applications. These people are already onshore with full work rights and Medicare. Therefore ‘regularising’ their status does not change the number of people living in, working in or coming to Australia but it does keep the headline ‘migration’ numbers up as people move from bridging visas. It will also allow offshore partner applications to be finalised, therefore reuniting some families who have been separated by the travel restrictions.
 

Most of the skilled programme places will also go to onshore applicants already in the workforce. This appears to be the trade-off that ‘protects Australian jobs’ in the current economic climate, as the offshore skilled migration programme is only being used in a highly targeted manner at the moment. 

[Wanderer Returns]

15 hours ago, paulhand said:

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘uptake’?

What the change means is that the Government will use this year to make inroads into the huge backlog of partner visa applications in the system, particularly onshore applications. These people are already onshore with full work rights and Medicare. Therefore ‘regularising’ their status does not change the number of people living in, working in or coming to Australia but it does keep the headline ‘migration’ numbers up as people move from bridging visas. It will also allow offshore partner applications to be finalised, therefore reuniting some families who have been separated by the travel restrictions.

Most of the skilled programme places will also go to onshore applicants already in the workforce. This appears to be the trade-off that ‘protects Australian jobs’ in the current economic climate, as the offshore skilled migration programme is only being used in a highly targeted manner at the moment. 

Thanks for that excellent explanation. It makes perfect sense, and I'm feeling rather foolish now! I had no idea that partner visa applications were now taking so long (I just looked up the processing time). When my wife applied in 2012 her 309 offshore took about 9 months, and in 2014 her 100 took less than two months. I guess you would also know the reason why the process is now taking so long?