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SusieRoo last won the day on June 7

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  1. SusieRoo

    CPV - How Long is the wait?

    Probably need to wait another three years before you will hear anything. It’s also worth checking out the main parent visa thread
  2. Estate agents embellishments! Looking at houses for sale, I came across a property with photos which have had the furnishings Photoshopped into the image, and then both sets of photos displayed in the listing. Had I not seen both photos, I would have been convinced all was genuine, but it just shows how good these embellishments are (even have reflections and shadows). Of course it's good to see what a house can look like, but I don't think the furniture is to scale and it could make the rooms look much larger than they really are. Clearly I would not buy a house without seeing it in the flesh, but this just makes me even more skeptical about estate agents.
  3. These responses are a bit like buses. I suspect no one can really give you answers at this stage, even an agent. Your visa is still possibly four years away from being processed and I think the outcome will hinge on your fathers health in this period. If I were you, I would remain hopeful for a favourable visa outcome, but also be realistic and have a contingency plan in place. I wish you and your family well.
  4. I'm also interested in a combined shipment of 4WD and household. From what I understand from google research, it's not cost effective arranging a full shipping container yourself. Apparently shipping costs globally have never been cheaper, but there is a huge markup when an individual books a container, as apposed to a business. I think this may be due to the additional hassle of dealing with Joe Public. We did a container shipment from the USA many years ago and there was a lot of addition costs for road transport. So my current plan is to ship the car from Southampton on the standard car ship (no container) for under £1000, then do the import and inspection arrangements ourselves, allowing an additional £2500. Then ship the household with a removal company, allowing £3500 (ball park) for door to door. Total cost for £7000, which appears to be about the same price for just the 'sea' part of a 40' container. Another concern I have about a filling the car with household items, is the car will need inspecting, and possibly cleaning on arrival, so this my cause additional problems and cost. I'm no expert, but I will follow this thread to see if anyone has advice. Also, I would be careful of what you put into storage, it's very easy to keep items you later don't need and end up selling for less than the cost of storage. Best to have a big sort out and boot sale then only keep the things you really need.
  5. Well I’m ‘open’ to the possibility of Peter Dutton jumping into Lake Burley Griffin
  6. Wasn’t Scott Morrison in charge of immigration in 2014 when the old parent visa was scraped?
  7. Very wise to plan for March 2019. Unfortunately the processes is now moving so slowly many of us are going to be 48/60 months (and much longer for newer applicants). So better to be realistic than to keep being disappointed. These global times don't really mean anything to parents waiting in the queue, sadly it's just false hope to think it's suddenly speeding up.
  8. Is our CPV really worth $100k? I’m just starting to become concerned about the true value of a 143 visa compared to the much cheaper 103. Contributory parent visas are supposed to be a ‘Fast Track’ option for parents who are able to make a significant contribution to the Treasurer of Australia. But it’s starting to look like this is no longer a faster option, and the queue for non-contributory parent visas maybe a superior option for new applicants. Looking back at ‘test email’ processing times, I have created the chart below. You can see how the 103 visa queue has moved forward 334 days in the last year, when the 143/173 queue has only progressed by 161 days. Which is about twice as fast (and 8 time faster in the last 6 months). There are fewer applicants in the 103 queue, but when you consider the cap is only 1500 places per year (as apposed to 7175 for 143’s) this is a startling difference in queue movement. One other advantage of the 103 visa, is the option to switch to the 143 queue without penalty in queuing time. So you can hedge you bets this way, although you will have to pay a new 1st VAC. Currently Home Affairs website warns of a 30 year wait for the 103 visa and only 49/55 months for the 143. So clearly this influences families into thinking the only practical choice is the Contributory parent visas. But these website statements aren’t true and it’s really now inclining to be around 8 years processing for new applicants in both visas steams. And this could swing further in the next few years. Also, from this chart you can see how it’s taken approximately 2 years to process 1 year of the 143/173 queue. So using this ratio (2:1) you can roughly calculate how long it will take to reach your own lodgement date. (I.e. My lodgement date is March 2016 and immi is now processing to May 2015. So that’s 10 months away, then x2, I get 20 months. So I should expect immi to start processing my application in April 2020)
  9. Welcome! Only a few posters here are real experts and the rest of us are just giving our opinion and making assumptions. So you should talk to a good migration agent if you have a important issue, but… I think you will find some parents with similar lodgement dates to yours, will have been contacted by immi. But it is not unusual to find a large discrepancy with how this works and you only need to start worrying when the official processing date moves well past your lodgement date. You are not getting replies from immi test emails because they have not moved forward for so long. If you retry sending from a different email address, you may get a reply, but it will probably still show the 5th May 2015. As I say, I’m not an expert. But it would seem obviously unwise to quit your job before you have AoS conformation. I suspect if you told this to Centrelink during your interview, you would not be accepted as assurer.
  10. Yes, you simply cannot control everything and life is all too short to worry about things that might go wrong. There is also a new temp parent visa (due to start soon), which may be an option. And there is an expectation that you can still remain in another parent visa queue while on this new visa.
  11. Immi normally publish their annual report in November. (See - www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about/reports-publications/reports/annual)
  12. Yes, unfortunately it’s back to the start and pay the initial fee again. But if I were you I would scratch the 143 application and bring your mum out on a tourist visa, then apply for a 864. She can then stay on a bridging visa while the application is processed. The aged parent visa channels have both ground to a holt in the last 12 months, so you can probably expect 10 years wait, but nobody really knows. I would value the time with mum over the vagaries (and vulgarities) of the Australian parent visa system.
  13. Try this link https://www.humanservices.gov.au/individuals/services/centrelink/assurance-support
  14. October 2015 is still quite a long way off the official processing date of 5 May 2015. Unfortunately you may need to wait for many months before you are contacted.
  15. Best to post these questions on the main parent visa thread and you should get more response.