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Everything posted by SusieRoo

  1. I am becoming increasing concerned that many Australians don’t appear to we aware of the dark clouds gathering. A year ago it was just a few internet profits warning of 30% fall in house prices and I just put this down to conspiracy theories and fake news. Back then everything was rosy in the mainstream media, but now there is an ever-increasing flow of news stories warning of more problems ahead. Even a senior research analyst from CorLogic is now predicting further significant falls in prices this year. (see https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2019-04-15/extended-interview-with-cameron-kusher/11017472?jwsource=cl) According to Property Council Of Australia, property accounts a 1 in 4 jobs. Below is an extract from a 29 Jan 2018 report, I’m not an economist, but it’s a fair assumption that the problems in the property market are going to have an impact on the wider economy. Which will in turn exacerbate house prices falling still further. I have friends who lost out in the Irish crash of 2009 and many ordinary families are still reeling from the devastating impact of negative equity losses. You can’t understate the impact this crisis had on the people’s health and wellbeing. It’s easy to read 32% of all Irish bank loans were ‘None Performing’ without truly understanding what this was like for the individuals involved. Also worth noting how badly wrong the Irish Central Bank and the regulators were in 2009. Below is an extract from Wikipedia. The same dark clouds were present in Ireland, back then nobody understood (or cared) how bad the situation was. Is this now the same in Australia?
  2. I don't think the shortage of water has made land prices expensive. It's more about the banks lending too much without doing the proper affordability checks and the insane notion that residential property should be used as a 'get rich quick' scheme. Greedy banks exploiting week regulation while politicians fail a generation of young people.
  3. That’s rubbish! Australia is 32x the size of the UK, so even with your 10% and 70% theory, that still equates to 450% more habitable land in Australia. You would have to increase Australia’s population to 299M to reach comparable density to the UK. I think the problem is that there has been a giant ponzi scam that has created a type of mania in the minds of many people. There was a similar mania in Holland back in 1637, when the price of tulip bulbs became detached from reality. Today in Australia it’s not tulip bulbs is building land and property. Only problem now, this bubble over inflated by many trillions of dollars and major chunk of the economy became embroiled. Difficult to determine an exact date when the bubble burst, but it was sometime around the middle of 2017. Now would be a good time to wake up, get a grip and take action, but apparently most people are still in the denial phase.
  4. Very true, but it's our fault! We have created a society that has caused this excessive debt to become normal. How can a tiny block at the end of the track be worth £400,000+ (land only), when Australia is vast and relatively empty. We have allowed big business (and self-serving politicians) to ride roughshod over our children. We have inflated one of the largest debt bubbles in human history. Now we sit back, gloat and blame the millennial generation.
  5. 5 years average wages? I think you will find many young people have recently signed up for mortgages at 10 or 11 times earnings with small deposits. These poor souls are going to struggle if prices don’t change, and if there is worse to come, there lives are going to be destroyed. Does this not concern anyone in Australia? I fully appreciate you have seen it all before, but I fear it’s not going to be so easy this time. Australia now has some of the highest personal debt levels in the world. I just don’t think the political system is ready for a big downturn and the RBA is too close to the Banks instead of fulfilling its duty to Australian people. There is currently a Glass-Steagall type bill before the Senate, to separate retail banking from the risky casino behaviour. But this too appears to get little attention from the media (or politicians), yet it is probably the most important legislation for future generations of Australians ever (unless you think debt-slavery will be good grandchildren).
  6. SusieRoo

    Best way to build air miles as a family

    Also worth exploring how difficult it is to actually use air miles for each airline when travelling between UK and Australia. Qualifying seats can be very hard to find if you have specific dates or length of stay when booking. With BA you need to look for ‘Reward Flights’, which can be very limited on this route.
  7. SusieRoo

    Contributory parent visa

    Welcome to the forum The current parent visa assessment dates are as follows, You can see the ‘Aged’ 864 visas are still being processed earlier than the 143 visas. but they have slowed recently. And there is now a suspicion that processing times may become aligned in the future. The number of application for all categories of parent visa are growing year on year and the number of places available has been reduced this year. So you would need to expect 7 or 8 years (possibly longer) for a new application. Also the eligibility age for a 864 visa is changing this year to 66. You must be in Australia when you apply for a 864 visa and you also can remain in Australia on a bridging visa while the application is processed. But with a 143 visa you cannot get a bridging visa and need to reside outside of Australia while waiting for your visa. Unfortunately you cannot change from a 143 to a 864 visa without starting a new application and going to the back of the queue. Because of your circumstances (with a fantastic centenarian) you will need to consider carefully which visa will most suitable. I am not an expert and you will undoubtedly be richer talking to an immigration agent (like Alan Collet @Alan Collett). Personally I would apply for a 103 visa now, which you can later switch to a Contributory Parent Visa (without loosing queue position) and then gain a bridging visa if circumstances allow.
  8. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    There is evidence to show auction clearance rates are now being manipulated. I was at an auction in Queensland a few weeks ago with no bidders, but that auction result never made it onto the monthly report. I understand this is now common place as it's the agents who input the data and the agent get to choose what gets reported. Same reason why turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
  9. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    I wouldn't kick yourself too hard as you may be able to get that unit for $500,000 or less by the end of the year.
  10. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    Yes, a lot of gloomy news about at the moment. I‘m far too old to buy into conspiracy theories, but there appears to be lots of planning in high places (central banks, IMF, hedge funds) in case of a significant global downturn. I guess a lot of expert missed the signs before the 2008 GFC and they are trying to get it right this time. I’m no expert myself, but from what I understand very low interest rates and QE (money printing) have created asset bubbles in many countries. Mainly in stock markets and property and Australia has produced one of the most fragile bubble of all in housing. Due to the relative simplicity of the Australian economy, there are concerns that falling property prices will impact on the wider economy. I think a good indicator this year will be the unemployment statistics (which are still ok at the moment) but if unemployment deteriorates, it will probably mean house prices will keep falling.
  11. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    "Moody's dramatically downgrades its forecasts for house prices" I just noticed this article in todays SMH (link - https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/imf-and-ratings-agencies-warn-of-more-financial-pain-for-australian-economy-20190409-p51cdh.html) "In January, Moody's forecast Sydney house prices would drop by 3.3 per cent through 2019. It now believes the drop will be 9.3 per cent. Melbourne's drop-off is even more acute, with the agency now predicting an 11.4 per cent fall in the city's house prices."
  12. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    Some other commentator think Armageddon is about to happen, but who knows what to believe. Personally I would not risk buying property in a falling market, especially with only 20% deposit. Remember that hard earned deposit will evaporate first if prices keep falling and be wary of the sales patter.
  13. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    I would probably look for an Option D, Sell everything and rent for a couple of years until Melbourne (and UK) property prices stop falling.
  14. Thank you for the info. I assume A$83,454.80 is amount is for one parent, but is there any info available for the income needed to sponsor two parents? And can this income be split between more than one person (sponsor and partner)? Also, there is a condition requiring, “The applicant genuinely intends to stay in Australia temporarily”. Do you think this means you can’t hold an 870 visa while also applying for permanent parent visa?
  15. Interesting to see this condition, “The applicant genuinely intends to stay in Australia temporarily”. I wonder if this means you can’t hold an 870 visa while also applying for permanent parent visa. Additionally it says “The applicant has access to sufficient funds to meet the costs and expenses of the applicant’s intended stay in Australia”. I’m curiosity how they will define what ‘Sufficient’ is in Au$? With all the hoops and costs for this new temporary visa, it’s making the permanent CPVs look like steal.
  16. More budget info - "The Government will reduce the planning level of the Migration Program from 190,000 to 160,000 places for four years from 2019-20. The outlook for net overseas migration, and consequential impacts on revenue and expenses, are updated in line with program delivery each Budget update. Therefore, this measure has no further budget impact. For the 2019-20 Migration Program, there will be 108,682 places in the Skill stream, 47,732 places in the Family stream, with a combined 3,586 places for Child and Special Eligibility streams." "The Government is increasing the base visa application charge (VAC) for all visa subclasses, with the exception of the Visitor (subclass 600) visa, by 5.4 per cent from 1 July 2019. There will be no increase to second instalment VACs. This measure is estimated to increase revenue by $275.0 million over the period from 2018-19 to 2021-22. Provision for this revenue increase has already been included in the forward estimates. "
  17. News in the budget - "The Government has decided to reduce the permanent migration program ceiling by a cumulative 120,000 places over four years" I'm not sure what this will do to Parent Visas but that’s a significant reduction.
  18. SusieRoo

    Is it a wise idea to buy property now ?

    For reliable data try 'CoreLogic Australia' and Martin North's 'Digital Finance Analytics' (see YouTube 'Walk the World'). We have decided not to buy in Australia for the next 12 to 24 months.
  19. SusieRoo

    Light at the end of the tunnel 143

    Thank you for popping back to the waiting room and giving us a boost. It’s a shame the light at the end of the tunnel is also moving away from us all the time. Interesting to see how we all now appear to be getting more accustomed to this ever-slowing process. We applied 11 months after your date and here we are now three years later, still expecting another year to wait. And new applicants are hunkering down for an 8 or 9 year delay. OMG! Also I’m very envious of your ‘Grey Nomad’ adventures, sounds like a lot of fun. Can I ask what level of budget you would recommend for a year of caravanning around Australia? I would love to give it a try.
  20. SusieRoo

    Property Downturn- has it affected you?

    I've noticed some Australian economists are predicting the housing crisis could have an impact on the Australian banks. I understand there is $250k gov guarantee on deposits, but does anyone know if this apply to everyone or just Australia citizen? Probably nothing to worry about but after seeing first hand what happen in Ireland there is no harm in taking precautions.
  21. SusieRoo

    143 Parents Visa - dependent child

    It may be better to apply for an aged parent visa as soon as one of your parents reaches the age of 66 years. This way they can apply while in Australia on their 600 visa and stay on a bridging visa while the visa is queuing (possibly now 10 years processing time). I also think the age of the dependent child (and fees) are calculated from the date the application is lodged, so even in ten years time they will only pay the child price.
  22. I also think 8 to 9 years still to wait for a November 2017 CPvisa application. The queue is moving forward about 4 months per year, or one year in every three years.
  23. SusieRoo

    Property Downturn- has it affected you?

    I went to an auction on the Sunshine Coast two weeks ago, lots of people there but not a single bid. I can't help thinking prices are going to fall everywhere soon and a lot of hard working people are going to get trapped in negative equity. If you look at what happened in Ireland in the GFC there are many similarities to Australia today.
  24. SusieRoo

    Parent visa 864

    It is important to make your application as soon as you can as I think we will soon see many changes to the parent visa system and pricing. The common consensus is that any changes will not be retrospective, so better to lock-in now. Good luck!
  25. Pension frozen at £17 a week for 40 years! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-11/brexit-miriam-margolyes-fighting-for-australian-pensioners/10871900