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SusieRoo

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Everything posted by SusieRoo

  1. I think this has come up in the past on the main thread and the general consensus was that the 173s were counted as a place initially (but not when the upgrade to 143 is granted). Ether way you still get approximately the same total of places at the yearend.
  2. Thank you for posting your very informative CPV sheet. I’ve just been having a rough count of how many applications are in front of our March 2016 lodgement date. If I include both 143s and 173s, it works out at about 4500 applications. And because there are often multiple applicants per application (I’m assuming a ratio of 1.7:1), that’s 7650 visas to grant before they get to us. And as they have been granting about 6000 CPVs per year, it should take at approximately 15 months (November 2020). Which is slightly better than my previous assessment. Interesting to see so many applications in May and June 2017. If you add in the 173s and use the same 1.7:1 ratio, that’s 15,000 applicants in just two months (or 30 months of processing time). And even worse when you add up all of the 2016/17 year, it will take five years to process just this one year. It would be good to get any feedback on my assumption of 1.7 people per application. Does this sound about right? I’m thinking there will be a mixture of single applicants, couples and families for each application on the list.
  3. That got my heart beating. I misread your message and thought they were asking a fellow March 2016'er for further documents. Anyway, welcome to the waiting room.
  4. SusieRoo

    143 Contributory Parent visa

    The end of year reports are published around November each year. It will be interesting to see how many 143/173 parent visas were issued in 2018/19. I think it may be well down on previous years, possibly around 4500.
  5. Good information as always Alan. It may also be worth spreading larger deposits between banks, as only $250k is safe under the deposit guarantee scheme. Just noticed today NZ is taking steps to protect NZ depositors from bank failures (90% of NZ deposits are held by the big 4 Aussie banks). These are strange times. Just saying…
  6. Yes, I agree that there should be a way to let her stay if the family pays the medical bills. If she returns to the UK with no family and isn't able to pay for private care, then her remaining time on this planet is going to be imaginably pitiful. Very sad to read other comments where other posers are so consumed with there own woes, they have lost sight of basic morality.
  7. SusieRoo

    CPV 143 visa

    We are on a similar timeline to you (March 2016) and share your frustration. I was hopeful of getting the call for medicals etc. in August or September this year. But processing appears to have significantly slowed down (again). So my best guess now is that we hear something at the beginning of 2020. And probably now looking at 56 to 60 months in total. Clearly there is an engineered delay for political reasons, which is affecting all visa streams. Also there are now considerable problems developing within the Australian economy and I suspect this may cause even more disruption for parent visas. Someone posted on here last year, describing the visa process as survival of the fittest. This is very true and we just have to keep mentally strong and not let any delays or problems diminish our resolve.
  8. Fantastic news Ramot and congratulations on becoming PRs. I know how difficult this process has been for you and it must be good to know you can now stay indefinitely in the country you already call home.
  9. SusieRoo

    Contributory parent visa

    Welcome to the forum. Yes, I think your son’s dad will be able eligible for a parent visa. Although there are a number of conditions that would need to be met. You may also be able to be the sponsor, given your son is under 18. I’m not an expert so I would recommend you seek guidance from a registered migration agent (like Alan Collet @Alan Collett). Also, you will have to consider your sons best interests carefully and you will always be able to veto this application if necessary. Remember that any class of parent visa is likely to take about 10 years to process, which will be stressful and possibly unsettling. Personally speaking, I would avoid doing this now (like the plague) and I would let my son make his own decisions when he reaches 18.
  10. SusieRoo

    143 Contributory Parent visa

    I don’t’ think anyone can definitively answer this question, but this is a good forum to find information and make the best 'guess' with what little data you can find. Here some info that might help. The Australian visa year starts on the 1st of July each year and IMMI (Home Affairs) publishes an annual report around November. This tells us how many applicants are queuing in each main parent visa stream. In our Contributory Parent category there was 48,595 applicants as of 30th June 2018 and there was 6,015 visas granted that year. And it’s my assumption this will have now increased to over 50,000 with the planning levels reduced for 2019-20. So for anyone applying now (if nothing changes) it will take around 10 years to be processed. IMMI is currently processing up to July 2015 and the queue has been moving about 4 months forward each year. So if this stays the same, you will have 4 years still to wait. But there is some speculation that processing has slowed recently due to problems at Centrelink and if this gets fixed, processing may speed up. I think if I were you, I would expect you to wait another 3 years. But it’s best not to plan to too far in advance as anything can happen, especially with an election looming.
  11. I am becoming increasing concerned that many Australians don’t appear to we aware of the dark clouds gathering. A year ago it was just a few internet profits warning of 30% fall in house prices and I just put this down to conspiracy theories and fake news. Back then everything was rosy in the mainstream media, but now there is an ever-increasing flow of news stories warning of more problems ahead. Even a senior research analyst from CorLogic is now predicting further significant falls in prices this year. (see https://www.abc.net.au/news/programs/the-business/2019-04-15/extended-interview-with-cameron-kusher/11017472?jwsource=cl) According to Property Council Of Australia, property accounts a 1 in 4 jobs. Below is an extract from a 29 Jan 2018 report, I’m not an economist, but it’s a fair assumption that the problems in the property market are going to have an impact on the wider economy. Which will in turn exacerbate house prices falling still further. I have friends who lost out in the Irish crash of 2009 and many ordinary families are still reeling from the devastating impact of negative equity losses. You can’t understate the impact this crisis had on the people’s health and wellbeing. It’s easy to read 32% of all Irish bank loans were ‘None Performing’ without truly understanding what this was like for the individuals involved. Also worth noting how badly wrong the Irish Central Bank and the regulators were in 2009. Below is an extract from Wikipedia. The same dark clouds were present in Ireland, back then nobody understood (or cared) how bad the situation was. Is this now the same in Australia?
  12. Yes, me too (won't be applying), too late now for us, but it would still be a good choice for people with longer to wait for their CPV. Especially if Labor win the election and they slash the cost of the 870. I think with the increased queue lengths for parent visas, it would now be humane to automatically handout bridging visas to all applicants. I wonder if Labor would stick that in it's manifesto?
  13. I don't think the shortage of water has made land prices expensive. It's more about the banks lending too much without doing the proper affordability checks and the insane notion that residential property should be used as a 'get rich quick' scheme. Greedy banks exploiting week regulation while politicians fail a generation of young people.
  14. That’s rubbish! Australia is 32x the size of the UK, so even with your 10% and 70% theory, that still equates to 450% more habitable land in Australia. You would have to increase Australia’s population to 299M to reach comparable density to the UK. I think the problem is that there has been a giant ponzi scam that has created a type of mania in the minds of many people. There was a similar mania in Holland back in 1637, when the price of tulip bulbs became detached from reality. Today in Australia it’s not tulip bulbs is building land and property. Only problem now, this bubble over inflated by many trillions of dollars and major chunk of the economy became embroiled. Difficult to determine an exact date when the bubble burst, but it was sometime around the middle of 2017. Now would be a good time to wake up, get a grip and take action, but apparently most people are still in the denial phase.
  15. Very true, but it's our fault! We have created a society that has caused this excessive debt to become normal. How can a tiny block at the end of the track be worth £400,000+ (land only), when Australia is vast and relatively empty. We have allowed big business (and self-serving politicians) to ride roughshod over our children. We have inflated one of the largest debt bubbles in human history. Now we sit back, gloat and blame the millennial generation.
  16. 5 years average wages? I think you will find many young people have recently signed up for mortgages at 10 or 11 times earnings with small deposits. These poor souls are going to struggle if prices don’t change, and if there is worse to come, there lives are going to be destroyed. Does this not concern anyone in Australia? I fully appreciate you have seen it all before, but I fear it’s not going to be so easy this time. Australia now has some of the highest personal debt levels in the world. I just don’t think the political system is ready for a big downturn and the RBA is too close to the Banks instead of fulfilling its duty to Australian people. There is currently a Glass-Steagall type bill before the Senate, to separate retail banking from the risky casino behaviour. But this too appears to get little attention from the media (or politicians), yet it is probably the most important legislation for future generations of Australians ever (unless you think debt-slavery will be good grandchildren).
  17. SusieRoo

    Best way to build air miles as a family

    Also worth exploring how difficult it is to actually use air miles for each airline when travelling between UK and Australia. Qualifying seats can be very hard to find if you have specific dates or length of stay when booking. With BA you need to look for ‘Reward Flights’, which can be very limited on this route.
  18. SusieRoo

    Contributory parent visa

    Welcome to the forum The current parent visa assessment dates are as follows, You can see the ‘Aged’ 864 visas are still being processed earlier than the 143 visas. but they have slowed recently. And there is now a suspicion that processing times may become aligned in the future. The number of application for all categories of parent visa are growing year on year and the number of places available has been reduced this year. So you would need to expect 7 or 8 years (possibly longer) for a new application. Also the eligibility age for a 864 visa is changing this year to 66. You must be in Australia when you apply for a 864 visa and you also can remain in Australia on a bridging visa while the application is processed. But with a 143 visa you cannot get a bridging visa and need to reside outside of Australia while waiting for your visa. Unfortunately you cannot change from a 143 to a 864 visa without starting a new application and going to the back of the queue. Because of your circumstances (with a fantastic centenarian) you will need to consider carefully which visa will most suitable. I am not an expert and you will undoubtedly be richer talking to an immigration agent (like Alan Collet @Alan Collett). Personally I would apply for a 103 visa now, which you can later switch to a Contributory Parent Visa (without loosing queue position) and then gain a bridging visa if circumstances allow.
  19. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    There is evidence to show auction clearance rates are now being manipulated. I was at an auction in Queensland a few weeks ago with no bidders, but that auction result never made it onto the monthly report. I understand this is now common place as it's the agents who input the data and the agent get to choose what gets reported. Same reason why turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
  20. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    I wouldn't kick yourself too hard as you may be able to get that unit for $500,000 or less by the end of the year.
  21. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    Yes, a lot of gloomy news about at the moment. I‘m far too old to buy into conspiracy theories, but there appears to be lots of planning in high places (central banks, IMF, hedge funds) in case of a significant global downturn. I guess a lot of expert missed the signs before the 2008 GFC and they are trying to get it right this time. I’m no expert myself, but from what I understand very low interest rates and QE (money printing) have created asset bubbles in many countries. Mainly in stock markets and property and Australia has produced one of the most fragile bubble of all in housing. Due to the relative simplicity of the Australian economy, there are concerns that falling property prices will impact on the wider economy. I think a good indicator this year will be the unemployment statistics (which are still ok at the moment) but if unemployment deteriorates, it will probably mean house prices will keep falling.
  22. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    "Moody's dramatically downgrades its forecasts for house prices" I just noticed this article in todays SMH (link - https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/imf-and-ratings-agencies-warn-of-more-financial-pain-for-australian-economy-20190409-p51cdh.html) "In January, Moody's forecast Sydney house prices would drop by 3.3 per cent through 2019. It now believes the drop will be 9.3 per cent. Melbourne's drop-off is even more acute, with the agency now predicting an 11.4 per cent fall in the city's house prices."
  23. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    Some other commentator think Armageddon is about to happen, but who knows what to believe. Personally I would not risk buying property in a falling market, especially with only 20% deposit. Remember that hard earned deposit will evaporate first if prices keep falling and be wary of the sales patter.
  24. SusieRoo

    Releasing equity in UK to buy in Australia?

    I would probably look for an Option D, Sell everything and rent for a couple of years until Melbourne (and UK) property prices stop falling.
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