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About s713

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  1. Brexit

    Not sure where these BMW figures are coming from, their website says they have invested 2Bn in the UK since 2000 and sold 250,000 cars in 2016 (70,000 of which were Minis). I know this isn't small change but it's a bit different from the 2Bn a year and 800,000 sales a year that I've just read about on these last 2 pages. And the posters cry agenda! https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/united-kingdom/article/detail/T0267009EN_GB/bmw-group-uk-reports-record-2016-sales?language=en_GB http://www.bmw.co.uk/en_GB/footer/publications-links/aboutus.html
  2. My Dad used to work up there in the 80s, it is very bleak.
  3. Brexit

    I think that the 'medium term' might be longer than a few years, look how slow this type of thing moves.
  4. Brexit

    Details of a potential 'no deal'. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-collapse-negotiations-eu-uk-theresa-may-david-davis-no-deal-wto-a7955471.html Trade takes a hit In the absence of a deal to replace or extend the UK’s membership of the EU’s single market, Britain would begin trading with the EU on what are called “World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms”. This is worse than it sounds: the WTO is known for its promotion of free trade, but the free trade it stipulates on its members is far less complete than Britain’s current arrangement with the EU – on which many businesses rely. A Parliamentary report into this state of affairs concluded that “this would almost certainly involve the immediate imposition of tariffs across a range of sectors”. Some tariffs would be more significant than others: the highest would be on British farmers, who would face 30-40 per cent charges for exporting to the EU, effectively making many exports unviable. Lower tariffs would be on things like automotive parts, where a five per cent charge would apply. These tariffs are what Britain, currently a member of the EU, charges countries outside the EU, as a member of the trade area. Britain would, now outside the EU and without any special opt-out, be on the other side of the fence. Finance is hit very hard Trading on WTO terms would lead to the immediate loss of what are called “passporting rights” to banks and other financial institutions based in the City of London. British banks currently have those rights, and they mean that bank can do business throughout the EU without setting up a subsidiary in that EU country or relocating to it. Loss of passporting rights would mean the immediate end to any business UK banks had in the EU. The City regulator, the Financial Conduct Authority, says 5,476 British firms rely on passporting rights and that their business brings in £9 billion in revenue every year to the UK. Paris, Frankfurt, or Dublin are seen as alternate locations for banks to relocate to so they can still do business with hundreds of millions of EU citizens. This would have a significant effect on the British economy: The UK has a trade surplus when it comes to services, rather than goods, where it has a deficit. In the third quarter of 2016 that surplus was £25.1 billion. The Office for National Statistics says financial services were the largest contributor to this surplus, £11.0 billion. The BBA, which represents financail services, says: "Behind these lost operational rights are established services that EU and UK clients and customers depend on, and jobs created to undertake that activity. These services will need to be restructured, reauthorised and reviewed. That will be disruptive, costly and time-consuming." Britain’s wider economy We don’t know what precise effect these massive reduction in trade and UK exports would have on the British economy, but it’s fair to say it would not be good. HM Treasury forecast ahead of the referendum, whose most pessimistic scenario was predicated on talks collapsing, suggested that such a Brexit would “push the UK into recession and lead to a sharp rise in unemployment”. Under the WTO rules scenario, the Treasury’s modeling expects unemployment to rise by 820,000 in two years, Sterling to fall by 15 per cent, and inflation to rise by 2.7 per cent. The effect on the EU The EU economy would likely be damaged by the collapse of talks, but the effects are difficult to quantify. 53 per cent of British exports come from the EU, and any disruption in trade would work both ways. But the EU27’s economies are about $13.5 trillion compared to the UK’s $2.6 trillion – the two are not equal in size and so the relative importance of the UK’s economy to the EU as a bloc is less than the other way around. The effect would likely be un-even – certain sectors and businesses that trade closely with the UK would be hit hardest. Where there are fewer links, the effect would be less. Regulations and laws Assuming the Government’s Withdrawal Bill (formerly known as the Great Repeal Bill) passes Parliament, the UK will be incorporating EU regulations into law. At the point of exit little would change in the way of “red tape” or other EU regulations – they would now be UK law. Brexit Secretary David Davis said on a visit to Washington DC at the start of September that the Great Repeal Bill is "actually is the Great Continuity Bill – it keeps in our law all the standards that are there now". Whether this stays the case into the near future would depend on the Government’s approach – Whitehall’s strategy of negotiating a deal with the EU is in large part predicated on the idea that when the UK leaves it will have regulations very similar or identical with the EU, which should make things easier. If that idea is ditched, the UK could go its own way – turning itself into an offshore tax haven, as Philip Hammond and other Tories have suggested, in absence of their preferred approach. Alternatively, they might hold out for a deal in the near future and change little. There will be some areas where keep EU laws won't be enough, however. New barriers would likely be erected in areas like data protection that would make it potentially illegal for UK businesses to deal in EU citizens' data without some kind of accreditation. On security, too, cooperation agreements that were not extended or replaced with something else would lapse, potentially allowing criminals to slip through the net. EU citizens EU citizens living in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU currently face uncertainty about their specific rights. Under a no deal scenario, that uncertainty would deepen. Ministers have previously said they are using EU nationals as a “bargaining chip” in negotiations – once those negotiations collapse, what happens is up to them. The3Million, a campaign group that represents EU citizens living in the UK, warns that EU citizens are already living in "a new political landscape and an unprecedented uncertainty as to the nature of their resident status in the UK post Brexit". The politics Theresa May has repeatedly said that “no deal is better than a bad deal”, so not getting a deal would not necessarily be the end of her. While the resulting economic malaise and perception of incompetence would probably seriously damage the government in the eyes of the public, many Tory MPs who favour no deal would probably be fairly content with the outcome. Because it is Tory MPs who choose who the prime minister is, in absence of an election, it would be down to them whether the Prime Minister survived. On the other hand, Boris Johnson and anyone else with leadership ambitions currently keeping a low profile might see any political hit for May as their opportunity to strike. From the EU’s perspective, the resulting punishment meted out in the UK economy would probably ensure nobody ever tried leaving the EU again for the near future – lest they turn out like Britain.
  5. Brexit

    This guy is/was Editor of LeaveHQ, website of The Leave Alliance. Pete North‏ @PeteNorth303 1. I'm now 100% certain there will not be a deal. We are past the point of salvation. 2. May thinks she has made a reasonable offer but it is simply not grounded in reality. She's away with the fairies. 3. She thinks this can be wrapped up in the construct of Article 50 which is a complete misapprehension. 4. She thinks it is now the responsibility of the EU to accept her offer when they have already declined it - twice. 5. None of the proposals are consistent with the rules of the system and May is demanding the impossible. 6. As much as government is not seriously engaging it lacks the capacity. They will never comprehend the issues. Its too complex for them 7. Underlying all this is an assumption that we can just muddle through and that no deal has manageable consequences. 8. Little is understood of the seismic implications - not least because the EU cannot breach its own rules 9. The assumption is that the EU will fold and refuse to put up barriers - but the EU is bound by the WTO system. No exceptions. 10. Once the UK has chosen to be outside of the EU systems, no special concessions can be made. They cannot help us. 11. The Tory assumption that regulatory parity is the basis of free trade is one that has taken root and they can't be talked out of it. 12. This is the line put forward by Legatum Institute and it is very obviously wrong http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=266 … 13. So we *definitely* will lose all of our JIT manufacturing and we lose most of our 3rd country trade relationships overnight. 14. At a guess I think we stand to lose more than a third of our trade - but very possibly most of it for the interim. 15. So that means major sweeping cuts are imminent. Expect massive HM forces redundancies and cuts to public services 16. The bottom line is this government holds far too many misapprehensions about how the system works to ever understand EU reticence. 17. So it will go on demanding the unrealistic and the improbable until it sees no choice but to walk away - blaming the EU for it. 18. As to being ready in 2 years, forget it. There is a decades worth of regulatory engineering to do. 19. So you can expect a number of sectors to collapse, a long recession, teetering over into a depression. This will cost unimaginable sums. 20. Most of all there will be no deal because the government is entirely insincere and is not taking it seriously. Game over. I'm telling you, in any sane world this ain't gonna happen, get your money on my accumulator. IF it does happen, it will be a calamity.
  6. Brexit

    I don't know whether it would be nice or not, I'm not really that bothered, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
  7. Brexit

    If I was a betting man, I would be gunning for this accumulator: UK revokes Article 50 due to lack of progress. PM May steps down, "not the right person to take us forward etc." General Election called. Corbyn wins large majority, aided by Referendum 2 pledge. Referendum 2 happens, remain wins. Things ... erm ... carry on as usual.
  8. Perth Airport Upgrade

    Like most things in Perth, when work finishes on something it is already outdated. They have been working on the airport and surrounding roads for years, they still are. And by the time they finish, they'll have to start again. The absolute lack of foresight/future planning here beggars belief; the time, effort and money wasted must be enormous. Why not just do it right in the first place?
  9. Brexit

    Hope so mate. Although, bear in mind, we haven't factored in the imminent collapse of the incumbent Government yet, whether that entails a leadership change (what's the point?) or a party change (what's the point?), that will impact the UK's brokerage power. Particularly if Corbyn gets in, who will roll over for the EU. Interesting times.
  10. Brexit

    It's not childish, they're looking after their own interests. Why wouldn't they? The problem with this whole process is it that isn't driven by necessity, or need. And it's not happening for the right reasons. Economically, the UK is going to be worse off. And, the things that people thought they were voting for, capped immigration I would assume, won't be addressed. In order to meet the deadlines that the EU is well within their right to impose, the UK is going to have to accede to unwanted demands, probably the common market and probably open borders. I bet you ANY MONEY that the UK comes out of this worse off in terms of trade agreements and no increased border control. How does that look then? I might be wrong but the clock's ticking and the people in charge are incompetent. And that's never a good combo.
  11. Brexit

    Great. How do you think it's going so far? Given that Article 50 was triggered nearly 7 months ago. I've not been following it that closely, can you paraphrase the up-to-the-minute progress for me? I'd expect that most of the thousands of statutes of EU law that need replacing have started to be addressed?
  12. Brexit

    Of course. And, in line with what the thread is about, the fact that Hammond, Davis and Mrs May are making up long-term UK fiscal strategy on the back of a fag packet, is absolutely frightening. Considering their capability (or lack thereof). It's not going to end well.
  13. Brexit

    The best Chancellor in living memory. An excellent parliamentarian undone by NuLab obsession with spin. A decent bloke. A victim of the global recession. Yes, he was good.
  14. Brexit

    They were political powerhouses compared to Mrs May. Even Bliar, who I can't stand.
  15. Brexit

    Even her re-election was an embarrassment. And, let's face facts, the alternative was Corbyn who only spiked on the back on Under-25 Facebook protest votes. She's absolutely chronic. Like I've tried to stress, the alternatives are just as bad, maybe worse. I doubt political history will look back on this era with any fervour.