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KIRK AND CO

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Oh Crap, Kirky won't like that, lol.

 

Aw well.

 

I happen to know a reasonable amount about the report they are referencing. So I honestly would not be getting overly excited. There is potential that some of the government measures to increase demand will have some impact on prices in time, but mostly because people will feel that they can start charging more because of the new initiatives, not because people generally have more money to spend. There may be some small rises in prices in certain pockets of the country, but nothing really to write home about.

 

The good news if anything is that we would not expect to see price falls in the coming months as things have at least stabilised. Growth will be slow though, so you are not all of a sudden going to make a fortune. Lenders have also not changed their risk appetite so loads of people are not all of a sudden start getting accepted (govt guarantees aside) who recently would have been declined. You are also not going to see a flood of 100% mortgages so people still need a very significant deposit to buy compared to the pre crisis days.

 

That said there are green shoots in the lending markets, more specifically in the unsecured space. For the first time in a very long time we are starting to see some positive growth in unsecured lending which suggests people are starting to feel a bit more confident about borrowing again. So that is good as it suggests some of the storm clouds are lifting somewhat.

 

I am not raining on the parade here, things are looking better, but at the same time I would not be expecting to all of a sudden get a fortune for your property compared to what you would have got a few months ago. You won't.

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Will Carney spoil things tomorrow?

 

I don't think that there is any expectation that he will do anything to make things worse (more quant easing etc), if anything there is expected to be positive news on the growth of the services sector in the UK this week, which would have a positive impact. If you couple that with the expected decrease in base rate in Aus this week you could be forgiven for expecting the dollar to drop a reasonable amount in the coming week.

 

That said, Carney is new, so somewhat of an unknown quantity, I am personally hoping for no curve balls!

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I don't think that there is any expectation that he will do anything to make things worse (more quant easing etc), if anything there is expected to be positive news on the growth of the services sector in the UK this week, which would have a positive impact. If you couple that with the expected decrease in base rate in Aus this week you could be forgiven for expecting the dollar to drop a reasonable amount in the coming week.

 

That said, Carney is new, so somewhat of an unknown quantity, I am personally hoping for no curve balls!

 

 

When he scratches his nose people short the pound. Something about long interest rate horizons.

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