Biggsy
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Posts posted by Biggsy
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17 minutes ago, bridgie said:
See this thread is being hijacked again. Moderators where are you ???
As probably the earliest 2016 applicant I’m considering not posting anymore as I am fed up keep logging in only to find off topic irrelevant posts.Yes quite right bridgie, this should only be for the discussion of processing times/timelines
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It's not so easy, I have a friend who's son out there on a student visa taking a Phd. The application was really thorough and he had to give valid reasons he you should be allowed to study in Oz. Also had to get a firm offer of a place from a uni and pay for it as part of the vias application (circa AUD$40,000 per year, refunded by the uni if the visa is rejected), produce bank statements to prove he had enough funds to support himself for the duration of the course and also to enough to cover the subsequent years of the course. He now has the opportunity to be sponsored for a work visa by an employer, apparently the new work visa application if accepted will cancel out the student visa!
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Has anyone else compared the price of one way tickets to return tickets. I did this a few weeks back on the Emirates website and the return flight was actually cheaper than a one way ticket. I found the same with British Airways many years ago when returning from South Africa to the UK, I just threw away the return ticket. Obvoisly too late if for those who have already booked flights but could also be worth looking at for the insurance cover problem!
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4 hours ago, Niel said:
Applied sub class 143 on 1st April 2015.....I havn't got any response from home affair.
How can I find the queue?
Contacted IMMI no response.
That's not good Niel. At this stage I think I'd be contacting them every day until they gave me some answers.
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patience, I posted a reply on the timelines forum Parent visa application timelines (143 & 173)
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8 hours ago, patience said:
We don't provide processing times for Contributory Parent, Parent, Contributory Aged Parent and Aged Parent visa applications. Applications for these visas are subject to capping and queueing.
""However, based on current planning levels, we estimate new Contributory Parent visa applications lodged that meet the criteria to be queued are likely to take approximately at least 50 months to be released for final processing. ""
When they say new applications are they talking about applications that will be lodged or that are already in que? Also every month they increasing one month. Last month was 49 months and previous month was 48 months. How can you win a race? When every time you reach a finish line it gets further extended.
50 months is more like the time being taken from application date to grant date for applicants being processed at the moment. I don't think these guys have clue yet they have all the data they need to give a realistic estimate. If you consider there are 41,000 currently in the queue up to end of April 2019, add another 4 months say 2,500 = approx 43,500 in the queue. To achieve 50 months would mean they expect to refuse something like 14,000 applications during that period. I would guess anyone applying today will have around a 6 year wait unless the limit/cap changes. When my wife and applied in July 2016 the website said 12-18 months yet looking back at the figures for that time there was already around 28,000 applications in the queue! I'm expecting to have waited over 4 years for us to be processed and visa granted.
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I've created a more detailed report (143's only) using the same data. It shows the number lodged each day and a cumulative total so you can see how many are in the queue ahead of you. Obviously this will change every time a more recent currently processing date pops up so I will update and upload a new version as and when I can. Let me know if you see any typo's or errors.
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3 hours ago, LindaH27 said:
I wonder what caused the huge jump in May and June 2017? That’s going to take years to process!!
Bit weird isn't it!
I wonder if some people unwittingly think that they need to get their application in before the end of June and if they do they will get processed sooner!
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28 minutes ago, patience said:
This visa is all about being patient and that is why I used that username. If you spread positivity the wait time runs by but if you spread negativity all the time then it gets difficult to wait. Although most users here are helpful. Some always see the glass half empty.
Quite right, I'm ok with the waiting but I think for many people it's soul destroying not having any idea of how long the wait will be.
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5 hours ago, patience said:
I think they count it as one app not each applicant otherwise there will be 80000 plus in que and someone that applies today will be 13 year wait which is not the case
Yes I'm pretty sure you're right about that (I hope)
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10 hours ago, SusieRoo said:
Thank you for posting your very informative CPV sheet.
I’ve just been having a rough count of how many applications are in front of our March 2016 lodgement date. If I include both 143s and 173s, it works out at about 4500 applications. And because there are often multiple applicants per application (I’m assuming a ratio of 1.7:1), that’s 7650 visas to grant before they get to us. And as they have been granting about 6000 CPVs per year, it should take at approximately 15 months (November 2020). Which is slightly better than my previous assessment.
Interesting to see so many applications in May and June 2017. If you add in the 173s and use the same 1.7:1 ratio, that’s 15,000 applicants in just two months (or 30 months of processing time). And even worse when you add up all of the 2016/17 year, it will take five years to process just this one year.
It would be good to get any feedback on my assumption of 1.7 people per application. Does this sound about right? I’m thinking there will be a mixture of single applicants, couples and families for each application on the list.
I also extracted the 173 data but excluded it as I wasn't sure it counted in the annual cap/allocation of 143's. On the home affairs website it says when you have a 173 you then can apply for a 143! If the 173's were included in the numbers wouldn't they then be counted twice? Once when applying for the 173 then again when applying for the 143. Can anyone out there clarify this for us please?
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38 minutes ago, Christa said:
Thank you and Patience for the data. This is very informative but when it says 1 lodgement, could this be for each application lodged, and is it not the case that each application could include a partner and/or other family members and therefore the figures here become misleading?
I'm not 100% sure, the figures are similar to what I've seen before and always seem to be compared with the cap (7175), hopefully it won't matter if we are comparing like for like. I played around with the data a little more and created a report forecasting a date range for each lodgement month when processing might begin. It's based on todays date, last known currently processing date (I used 16 Dec 2015) and the number of places potentially processed per day using the cap. It was very interesting, my own forecast to start processing was between the 1st and 30th July 2020. By the end of this year it forecast that lodgement dates of March 2016 could be in progress. However I'd be worried about putting that document up for public viewing just in case it's misleading. I may monitor it and see how it looks. No doubt the Oz Christmas break will impact on the dates and also we have no idea how far into the cap they are and could stop for a while if reached.
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11 hours ago, patience said:
Hope this information helps everyone https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/foi/files/2019/fa-190500418-document-released.PDF
Thanks Patience, how did you find this? Been looking for this sort of information for a while now to try and do some forecasting. I extracted the data and did some analysis on it. According to those figures it looks like the currently processing date will stick at May/June 2017 for well over a year based on the current 143 cap. See attached pdf. If anyone has trouble viewing the pdf let me know.
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I noticed on the main Parent Visa forum how some people were wondering why the queue has started to move quickly regarding the application dates currently being processing. I thought I’d post here as this is more related to timelines.
I’m sure it will depend on how many applications were lodged each month. For example (exaggerating or maybe not!) if the number of places available for 143’s per year is 7,175 and 6,000 were lodged in January then the currently processing date would remain as January for 10 months giving the impression that very few visas were being processed. I’m guessing that the number of applications must have eased off in the second half of 2015. Anyway it’s all good news, just hoping it continues that way for us all.
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1 hour ago, Marilyn said:
I have managed to open a Westpac Bank account from the UK successfully and will validate with proof of ID when I arrive. In the meantime I received an email from Westpac regarding Foreign Tax Residency status of which they want a copy - is that the P45?
TIA
Hi Marilyn
They want to know your permanent country of residence as they will communicate with the UK tax office to decide how to tax you on any interest. We have some friends (waiting for 143) who only confirmed this with commbank when they validated thier ID while on holiday there. All they wanted was either thier UK tax reference or NI number. Bit awkward for you as you are still considered to be a UK resident. Perhaps you should call them to explain your situation. They have a migrants banking UK contact number you can call. The numbers are here below, the contact hours are 11am to 7pm Australian.
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On 30/07/2019 at 19:19, Rosiejaq said:
with current exchange rates getting worse (£ to A$) does anyone use a company which can freeze a rate?? just asking
I doubt you will find any company which will freeze a rate for you.
My wife and I have used a company called OFX www.ofx.com several times for transferring sums of money (some large) to family over the last 2-3 years. They seem to offer a decent rate, the money has reached our family members Commbank bank accounts usually within 48 hours and never had any charges at the other end. If it’s a very large amount for example from the sale of a property (regardless of which option you prefer below) you will have to speak to them first and possibly provide evidence in advance that you have the funds ready to transfer to them. Also you may also be able to negotiate a preferential rate in advance (slightly better than the standard rate) which they will link to your OFX account but they won’t freeze a rate.
They have 2 options online (without speaking to them first I think the limit is about £20k but could be wrong). A spot deal where you get the current exchange rate at the time you request an amount to exchange online. The other option is where you specify the amount you want to exchange, the rate you would be prepared to exchange at, and how long you want to leave that option in place. The deal will automatically go through if and when the exchange rate reaches the rate you requested or will expire if the time limit date you specified is reached. You can also cancel it at any time. In both cases you have to get the money into their account within 24 hours of accepting the deal or the deal will expire. I keep an eye on the exchange rate and watch out for spikes in the rate which usually coincide with some positive financial or political news. However, not much of that about at the moment I'm afraid.
I would definitely speak to your bank manager about paying/transferring large sums of money regardless of who the payment is to as there are all sorts of restrictions, limits and potential delays for large amounts with online banking. You usually have to make a large sum transfer by telephoning your bank so it's worth making sure all your security details/questions/answers are in place. If you moved house/changed address recently your bank may not be able to verify your ID and block any large payments even if you've been with the same bank for many years. Over a certain amount the same day transfer may have to made be by CHAPS for which there is usually a £25 charge.
Even some of the banking staff are not always aware of the pitfalls when transferring large sums of money. We found out the hard way!
The Brand New PIO Parents Visa thread
in Family / Partner Visas
Posted
Yes the processing times published on the website are very misleading. It's so bad it could almost be considered as fraudulent misrepresentation/taking money under false pretences.