McKlaut Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Just want to draw some attention to the topic. October figure is 5.8% which is 0.1% higher than in September however the number of employed wokers has risen by 2900 full-time and 21,500 part-time. What is even more important for me that in WA unemployment is down from 5.7% to 5.0%. I think it's good news. Here are two articles from central and local newspapers. The Australian: THE Australian unemployment rate has edged up to 5.8 per cent, but not enough to dampen expectations that interest rates are likely to rise next month. The result met the expectations of the financial markets, which had forecast the October jobless rate would have risen marginally from the previous 5.7 per cent level in September. Even though the jobless rate was slightly higher, the total number of people employed rose 24,500, with 2900 full-time jobs and 21,500 part-time jobs. Financial markets are warming to the prospect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase rates for the third consecutive month, when the board meets early in December. The chance of a December rate rise had been pared back to 52 per cent -- virtually a line ball call -- after last week’s RBA statement on the November increase was interpreted as dovish. However, the prospect of a rate rise next month has now jumped to 72 per cent. Many economists expect a move because the RBA does not meet in January, which means if the bank held rates in December it could not move again until February. The higher interest rate environment has prompted the Australian dollar to rally strongly and break the US93c barrier. The domestic currency, at US93.02c, is at the highest level since August last year. The Australian labour market has surprised economists with its resilience, as the unemployment rate has not broken through 6 per cent despite the downturn of the past two years. The Treasury last week reduced its forecasts that unemployment would now peak at 6.75 per cent next year, compared to the earlier outlook of 8.25 per cent. thewest.com.au: A strong rise in employment in October will give the Reserve Bank of Australia added confidence to lift interest rates in December, economists say. It will be the first time the RBA will have raised rates for the third consecutive month, if it does so. A larger than expected jump in official jobs data surprised market forecasters, after 24,500 jobs were created in October, Australian Bureau of Statistics data published today showed. The median market forecast was for total employment to have fallen by 10,000 in the month. The nation's jobless rate crept up 0.1 percentage point to 5.8 per cent. In WA, the unemployment rate dropped 0.7 percentage points to 5 per cent, suggesting last month's 5.7 per cent was an anomaly and that the 'real' unemployment rate had not changed markedly from month to month. The figure for August was 5.4 per cent. AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver said the national jobs figures have raised the prospect of an RBA interest rate rise in December. "The odds are now tilted back in favour of a rate hike," Dr Oliver said. He said the labour force report, along with the National Australia Bank business survey and consumer confidence report published earlier this week, showed the economy was "withstanding the shift to gradually higher interest rates". "That would embolden the RBA to tighten again in December," Dr Oliver said. Within minutes of the ABS releasing the jobs data this morning the debt futures market had fully priced in a 25 basis point rate rise for December. The RBA has lifted the cash rate by 25 basis points each at its past two monthly board meetings, in November and October, and the rate now sits at 3.5 per cent. If the RBA take the cash rate higher in December, it will be the first time it will have done so for three months in a row since the bank started announcing its interest rate decisions in January 1990. The ABS data on Thursday showed the number of full-time jobs rose by 2,900 in October, while part-time employment was increased by 21,500. The unemployment rate has moved between 5.7 and 5.8 per cent for the past six months. Dr Oliver said he would be "extremely surprised" if the unemployment rate rose much further. "We've turned the corner," Dr Oliver said. "I think it is more a confirmation that we've either seen the peak in unemployment or we're pretty close to it. "I think the more likely scenario is we'll spend several months bouncing around current levels before we start falling through next year." ICAP economist Adam Carr said the data meant government predictions of a 6.75 per cent peak in unemployment were now unlikely. He said his own prediction of a 6.25 per cent peak might be too strong. "We've had a fairly steady unemployment rate for eight months now and that's a very good signal," he said in a note. "More importantly, we're starting to see the economy generate jobs - 64,000 over the past two months with more than of that full time. "Barring some global meltdown, I think (a rise of) 25 basis points is almost done for December. CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said the jobs data left the door open for the RBA to raise rates in December. "Really you're seeing that shift still in place between part time and full time," he said. "We were expecting job creation rather than job destruction and that's really what we've seen." He forecast the unemployment rate would peak at six per cent, despite tracking "marginally higher" in the latest reading. "We believe the peak in unemployment is just around the corner and the six per cent mark is looking more and more likely on a monthly basis as the data comes through." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sh7t man no way Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 thats some well needed good news mate-- it sounds as though things are begining to settledown a bit---- i luv good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest ozlocaljobsau Posted November 17, 2009 Share Posted November 17, 2009 This is a discussion on Aus employment - still doing good! within the Migration Issues forums, part of the Lounge Room category; Just want to draw some attention to the topic. October figure is 5.8% which is 0.1% higher than in September ... as i am looking for a part time job in austalia...this forum helps me a lot. please update this post as soon as upto date timings.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McKlaut Posted November 17, 2009 Author Share Posted November 17, 2009 This is a discussion on Aus employment - still doing good! within the Migration Issues forums, part of the Lounge Room category; Just want to draw some attention to the topic. October figure is 5.8% which is 0.1% higher than in September ... as i am looking for a part time job in austalia...this forum helps me a lot. please update this post as soon as upto date timings.. ozlocaljobs.com.au Aus job data (unemployment figure) are released every second Thursday of every month and is published in every major newspaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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