Thanks Alan - in what way do you anticipate this will impact processing? Do you anticipate a significant increase in waiting times or is this in line with typical annual number of grants up to this point?

4 hours ago, rtritudr said:

There is a back door open via New Zealand:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-ve-escaped-aussies-use-kiwi-bubble-as-back-door-to-defy-travel-ban-20210422-p57lne.html

‘I’ve escaped!’: Aussies use Kiwi bubble as back door to defy travel ban

It may be a way out for a handful of people, but getting back in will be extremely difficult. The example in the story is a person ordinarily resident in Russia who has left Australia permanently.

Being separated from family is hard, but at the risk of sounding callous, I'm surprised how many people have suddenly realised that migrating to the other side of the world means separation from family in the UK. 

20 minutes ago, Wanderer Returns said:

You do, but unfortunately some people are fabricating evidence so they can claim 'exceptional circumstances'. I saw a group on Facebook dedicated it 

I do hope you reported it

1 minute ago, mt9754 said:

Fingers crossed we can hold it at bay.  In the meantime I think i will move my flights back to december on the off chance they start vaccinating under 40s by November.

I think the Pfizer deliveries are expected to increase slowly through until the last quarter of the year, at which point there will be a significant increase of delivery (if it goes to plan) and a ramping up of vaccination hubs. All Australians will supposedly have been offered a first shot by end of year (give or take).

Given the bulk of Pfizer won’t arrive until October ish, if I was in your shoes I might be tempted to move flights to March/April 2022 rather than late 2021, to give time for borders to possibly start opening with vaccinated countries (UK/US etc). It’s still all a bit uncertain but I’d be very surprised if much had changed by December.

I would imagine its going to become increasingly difficult (not easier) to return to Australia, as some state premiers are unhappy At the current numbers of arrivals and the pressure it is putting on the quarantine programmes. SA has suspended international arrivals and WA has cut arrivals by 50%. With the slow vaccine rollout, a more cautious approach will likely follow, meaning less flights and more difficulty returning.

Not that you have said you plan to go anywhere, just in case that is the reason for the query. Anyone going overseas should expect a very lengthy and expensive process to return.

@calNgary 

Could one of the mods please help this poster to remove/redact their personal info above, as suggest by Paul? Bit dodgy putting those details online

6 hours ago, Dusty Plains said:

And those so-called "human rights abuses" would be .......... ???

I'm conscious of Cal's post, so it's probably a debate for CTF. But also, I'm not sure if that debate is currently allowed on CTF. 

20 minutes ago, Loopylu said:

I will take your advice on board. Unfortunately I very much doubt that a change in tone would make one iota of difference when it comes to the attitudes and views of some posters on here. Unless you sing from the same hymn sheet you are persona non gratis. 

I hope you make it back to your family in Australia soon, it must be incredibly difficult being so far apart especially with all the uncertainty at the moment.

2 hours ago, Loopylu said:

The difference is that the UK has a Human Rights Act and you can go to court to challenge human rights abuses and usually win. In Australia without any human rights legislation, all you have is the Australian Human Rights Commission who can tell the government that "it has been a very naughty boy" but cannot compel it to comply with its international human rights obligations. 

There has already been considerable uproar in the UK about the refugee proposals and at least the government is consulting on the measures and not arbitrarily imposing them.  

Sorry if I appear abrasive, but human rights is a fundamentally important issue and having provided pro bono advice to genuine refugees it is a matter close to my heart.

 

I understand that, I agree it is a very important issue and I appreciate you're having a very difficult time at the moment, but a measured approach might be more conducive to changing people's views.

Many of your posts read as quite aggressive and confrontational. Given your professional background (and my assumption of your skills in debate and persuasion) I wonder if maybe current events are impacting the tone and language in your recent posts. Telling people they are selfish, heartless or nasty (my words not yours) won't lead to constructive debate over these important issues.

Australia has many questions to answer regarding human rights abuses, that is true. But it is also true that the UK has many questions to answer regarding human rights abuses (not least the treatment of disabled people in the UK, as identified by the UN).
 

I also note the current UK governments desire to opt out of aspects of the ECHR in order to remove asylum seekers, refugees etc more forcefully. Would you agree that the UK should address the above issues, like any other democracy worth its salt? 

I don't disagree with some of the points you make and my political views make me a natural ally to your position, but the abrasive and combative way in which you make them is difficult to support.

1 hour ago, Parley said:

Victoria opened up to international flights last week.

The fact arrivals have to do 2 week quarantine at a cost of around $3000 may stop a lot of people coming though.

I think Jetblast was referring to tourism, temporary visa holders etc, who are not currently permitted to enter Australia

6 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

Also, idea that the drop is all down to lockdown and not also the weather and the vaccination program is wierd.

The lockdown started around 6th January and case numbers peaked around a week later, before sharply declining through January and February. When case numbers plummeted, it was still January/February and still winter. At the time case numbers plummeted, only 12%- 25% of the population had received their first shot (late January to late February figures). Even now, there are still only approx 50% of the UK population that have received their first vaccination, and around 12% that have received their second dose.

To my mind, the evidence strongly points towards lockdown as the primary factor in reducing case numbers given the above. As vaccinations hit 60%-70% we would expect their impact to really be felt in the figures going forwards. The UK vaccine rollout has been almost world leading (bar Israel), but it’s the lockdown that put the genie back in the bottle.

4 minutes ago, Jon the Hat said:

The South Africa variant is stable.  Stats out last week.

My worry was/is the possibility it may spread through the population of unvaccinated, younger people. The data is far from conclusive regarding this and Pfizer may indeed be sufficiently effective against it, but it is still enough to worry me:

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-israel-study-idUSKBN2BX0JX

2 hours ago, Jon the Hat said:

Wonderful to see!  Young people mainly, who are at very low risk, and whose at risk loved ones have now been vaccinated!   What are you worrying about exactly?

I’m worried about unvaccinated people mingling in large numbers when the South African variant is in ascendancy, which recent studies  suggest may be somewhat resistant to current vaccines including Pfizer.

After such a long lockdown and hard fought reduction in numbers, a slower paced, cautious reopening may have been wise. Time will tell I suppose.

7 hours ago, Nyxkat said:

Was the first day of madness today. My shop opened so I was there managing the queue today. There were tens of thousands of people out today of not more. The queue for my charity shop wasn't too bad, between 4 and 12 people long, but no one was bothered about distancing. People queueing for primark were all scrunched up together too and that queue was over a mile long today. It went up the high street to the park and zig zagged around for a while o.0

There were people drinking outside pubs at 9am. It's going to be hard keeping those numbers good when people are behaving so badly.

Some of the scenes in Soho were worrying as it looked very busy and congested with people drinking

4 hours ago, Caramia11 said:

Hello,

I’m hoping some of you with your own experiences might be able to help me. This forum is a real fountain of knowledge! 

Backstory -  (sorry bit boring but think it may give some context). 
My partner (now husband) and I lived in Australia for 3.5 years returning to the UK in late 2014. We originally entered on a working holiday visa and then my partner was sponsored and we had the 457 (I know this visa doesn’t exist anymore).

We moved back to the UK for numerous reasons but now would really like to emigrate back to oz permanently. 
I qualified as a Social Worker in 2017 with a Masters, but worked in Australia in the charity sector in fostering and adoption unqualified. My husband worked in data security but I don’t believe his occupation is currently on any skilled list. 
We also now have 2 daughters, 5 months and 4 years old. 
 

I have around 75 points which I know is too low to be able to gain a 189 visa so wanted some advice around what visa would be the best and most realistic to apply for. 
I think we were naive in thinking because we’d lived in the country before, being able to return would be easier but from what I’m reading this isn’t the case. 
I know social workers are currently on the priority list but does this mean it’s just a case of the application being processed faster and/or the threshold of requirements being lower as well? 
We would love to move to WA but initial research indicates this is a very difficult state to gain visas for, is this correct? 

I’m quite early on in my research and feeling quite bamboozled by all of the different visa options and where to start (really regretting giving up our original visa now but everything happens for a reason and it is what is ).

Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

Many thanks 

Cara. 
 

 

Chat to Westly above and get moving on the application with some urgency. Have you applied for your AASW assessment of your qualifications?

The OP came looking for support, please stay on topic to avoid this being closed, or head to CTF for a more robust debate on 'comedic' style

On 02/04/2021 at 15:42, Whey aye said:

So you haven't got a clue about investing and neither has your mate,what do you feel you have proved .

Can you answer this.If I lose money I will go bust,if I make money and pay tax on it I will not go bust.Which will provide the better outcome?.

A slight increase to your total lack of knowledge.Use Commonwealth bank as the control ( CBA. .ASX ).

I bought them for $7 a share,not long after the float,probably a bit less than $7.Having a little bit of common sense I decided to reinvest the dividends.That original investment of $7K is now worth around $525 K.

My mate didn't buy them.During that period he died 72 times and was brought back to life 600 times .He has 23 children and they are all unemployed .He got divorced around 300 times.

 

I had a struggle,died 1600 times,brought back to life just over a million times.73 dogs died on me and 15 cats disappeared.My 400 th wife decided I was a keeper .

I wake up every day wondering which of my 400 unemployed children will kill me.Kill the old man and we will inherit a fortune,I need eyes in the back of my head to watch them all.

Neither of us are economists,can you believe that.

To further your education ( I know I'm trying the impossible,but here goes)

Across the 30 years that CBA has operated they have made a profit and paid tax on all of those profits .How could the board of directors be so stupid,how could they not work out that losing money and bragging about not paying tax would be the way to go.Perhaps they should get your mate the financially clueless economist on the board.

To further your education even more ( I know it is impossible,but God loves a trier),banks operate on  net interest margin.This is the difference between interest paid to the bank,and the interest the bank pays out to the people they borrowed the money off,savers.

Now gross assets in 1991 were approx $100 billion.They lent that money out @ 3%,say all of it on mortgages .They paid the people they borrowed that money off 1%.They collected $3 billion ,and paid out $1billion,difficult maths,perhaps a pencil and paper would help .

$3 billion collected,$1 billion paid out and $1 billion to pay wages,rent etc.That leaves $1billion in net interest margin ( commonly called gross profit),or 1% net interest margin I know interest rates change over the years,but try to keep up,and try thinking 

 

Fast forward to today,strange but the business model still works.Wages have gone up ( most people will deny that),and house prices have gone up,who could believe it.

So $1 trillion in gross assets ( lent out in mortgages to people we'll say),@3%.Income $30 billion ( greedy b#$&@&s comes the populist cry).

1% gross profit ( net interest margin) $10 billion( greedy f @#$_$#$___  comes the populist cry)

1% to pay wages,rent,computer systems etc ( you know what the populist cry is,why don't they give their workers a big pay rise greedy $&#_&+++&_.Look how much profit they make)

And of course 1% to the people that put the $ $1 trillion there,ahem,savers.

10+10+ 10  = 30( cue Ripley's,believe it or not).

Now this bit is rocket science,you and your mate the clueless economist are not going to believe it .

Over the coming 30 years I would expect wages to rise.I would expect house prices to rise,I would expect gross assets to rise.

Suppose gross assets rise to $10 trillion lent out Everything else remains the same,1% of $10 T as gross profit ( 30% tax paid on that).

1% of $10T paid out in interest ( to the savers)

1% of $10T paid out in rent etc.

 

Get your mate the clueless economist to explain to you where CBA have gone wrong over that 60 year period.Instead of aiming to increase profits every year and pay more tax.They should have been trying to lose money every year so they didn't pay any tax,and could brag about.

 

,

 

What an unnecessarily unpleasant post. If you hold more knowledge on a subject than someone, it does not make you better than them, nor does it give you the right to talk down to them. You could have made your point without the personal insults.

13 hours ago, s713 said:

I went to a couple of Spudshed's in WA and found them a bit scruffy.

They are quite scruffy, although a bit nicer now than they used to be. It’s a bit like a farmers market where you have to spend time picking out the decent fruit and veg as it’s bundled in with a lot of poor quality items - that’s why it’s so cheap - that and it’s mostly WA and/or Australian produce on sale

12 minutes ago, Loopylu said:

Just taken my Mum for her second Pfizer jab. Mass vaccination centres are open every day. 

As an over 50, on Tuesday I can phone and make an appointment for the Astra Zeneca at the Carmarthen Showgrounds drive through.

As you can see from my photo we are having glorious Spring weather...

Has the UK adopted the approach of Pfizer for higher age ranges and AstraZeneca as the ‘workhorse’ vaccine for the rest of the population? I haven’t read anywhere which vaccines are being used where, for whom, and why.

1 hour ago, Wanderer Returns said:

I totally agree. The Australian policy of containment has been very effective at protecting lives and it was a great initial response, but it's not a long-term solution. As a nation we can't be cut off from the rest of the world forever - and not just for economic reasons. The government needs to stop patting itself on the back over how well it's done so far, get the vaccine rolled out much faster than it has being doing, and start working on an exit plan. It's all right for people (myself included) who have government jobs, or the rich, or those with guaranteed sources of income, but there are many who are self-employed and business owners who are really suffering at the moment - particularly those who work in tourism or hospitality. My wife is a housekeeper and she's had all her shifts cancelled this weekend because the hotel she works at has no guests (courtesy of the recent Brisbane outbreak). I find it absolutely astonishing that medical staff on the front line hadn't been vaccinated before being allowed to work with covid patients.

Despite all the negative press, I think the UK is now in a much better position than most countries. Almost everyone who is vulnerable has been vaccinated and as a nation they are no longer 'afraid of covid' like they are over here. It's become an excepted risk of daily life, and you can see most people just want to get on with it - and I'm sure they will once Boris stops dithering!

Agreed, I am finding the pace of vaccine rollout frustratingly slow. Technically it is more or less on schedule, I just naively assumed that the rollout would accelerate beyond the original timetable once the onshore AstraZeneca production started churning out millions of doses each week.

The UK has done very well with the vaccine rollout, with appropriate urgency (Albeit necessary urgency given the number of cases). I think Australia is in a very good position but this has led to an overly casual approach to the vaccination schedule, with teething problems causing additional delays. I expected mass vaccination sites to be setup (eg in community halls or stadia) to complement GP practices, pharmacies and hospitals to really gain momentum and get the population vaccinated quickly. That would’ve allowed the government to sit back, say “look how well we handled Covid and the vaccinations” and then look to shift towards a looser border scenario. The longer vaccinations take, the longer the population is at risk from outbreaks.

1 hour ago, Wanderer Returns said:

The median incubation period of COVID-19 is 5–6 days, ranging from 1 to 14 days. McAloon C, Collins Á, Hunt K, Barber A, Byrne AW, Butler F et al. Incubation period of COVID-19: a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research. BMJ Open. 2020;10(8). doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039652.

By this logic, if you test people at Day 3 and then at Day 11, as they do in Australian quarantine, more people will test positive at Day 11. It doesn't mean that it takes most people 11 days to develop symptoms. They've worked this out in the UK and reduced the quarantine time to 10 days, so that people who are feeling well can get 4 days of their life back. You're also expected to continue quarantining beyond the 10 days if you've developed symptoms in that time. I'd imagine that the UK's covid policy is now based around control than containment, given the situation over there.

What I don't follow is why the Australian government has decided the 'safe distance' is 1.5m, whereas the rest of world has settled for 2m. It's not as though we're short of space over here! 

The research references 5% of cases developing symptoms between days 10 and 14 (rounding up/down). I wonder if this is why Australia has gone with the 14 day approach, to match their pursuit of containment rather than control that you mentioned?

I also thought UK supermarkets were superior (and cheaper) than those in Australia, until I returned to Scotland for a spell. Once I was earning the £ again I felt the prices were very similar relative to wages and I disliked the amount of plastic wrap used on fruit and veg in the UK, so wasteful.

With the introduction of Aldi and Spudshed (WA) I think coles and woolies have had to up their game. I can’t buy a tv in the supermarkets here, but I now tend to think the produce is of a higher quality (and often more local produce) than the produce on sale in tesco. 

Marks and Spencer’s is the exception, I would never buy a weekly shop in marks when I lived in Scotland but some of their products are fantastic and I do miss shopping there.

2 hours ago, Parley said:

I wonder why its only 10 days in the UK when it is 14 days in Australia.

Particularly interesting when you consider Australia’s experiences whereby large numbers did not test positive for Covid until day 11 (and beyond) of quarantine. All those cases would have gone home to infect family members under the 10 day quarantine system.

3 hours ago, FirstWorldProblems said:

In times of great stress and when under distress, people aren’t always themselves nor to they always think as rationally as under normal circumstances.  
 

I wonder if it might not be time to draw this thread to a close.   Perhaps everything that can be said has now been said.  

I think you are right. It is easy to forget how dark it can be during crises and I have myself behaved quite irrationally during periods of grief. I think I need to extend more patience and sympathy, regardless of comments I may disagree with on this thread by the OP. Closing the thread is probably a good idea.