Guest sunseekers Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Hi Guys Just wondering if anyone in Oz can let us know if the Credit crunch / Recession is happening in Oz ( Brisbane inparticular ) ? Are house prices falling ? Is Bricklaying/Trade work drying up ? Intrest rates coming down ? Any help would be great x:wink: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest beermeister Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 Hard question to definitively answer with any real authority, but here's a few of my personal opinions: The current economic crisis is global, so Australia is affected albeit some countries will fare better than others (e.g. check out Russia's economic woes with the falling oil prices). Australia doesn't seem to have the banking instability that UK has recently experienced which has scared off investors for the time being, plus the rake of bad news that the British press love to perpetuate (and British readers love to believe in full) hasn't helped Australian economics is nowhere near as uniform as the UK, so things like movement in house prices will vary from one place to another.....prices will have gone down in some areas but not in others Unemployment levels will also vary from State to State in Australia Australia's national economy is highly leveraged off the activities in Asia; if China sneezes, Australia catches a cold and vice versa - so keep an eye on those economies as a leading indicator Several of my family members work in the Building trade in Qld and they said it seems to be slowing down Interest rates have come down - just google it and you'll be able to read a plethora of info on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest FocasFinance Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 Yes that is a tough question to answer but here it goes with our views on the crisis and how the market seems to be going from our point of view. First of all we have to acknowledge that the fundementals of banking in australia are very different from the way banking is run in the states... FIrstly our four major banks are situated in the top twenty banks globally, our banks do not lend over 100% and our banks in Australia do not take keys off people as they find it to hard to go on with a mortgage. Supposedly in the states someone can walk off the street and say its to much for me and hand over the keys and thats that; not possible here as you probably know. Another important thing is that banks here pay trailing commission to brokers, which really is an incentive to keep looking after the client, so in most cases the broker stays in touch with the client and if a problem comes up normally they have plenty of time to find a solution etc, in the states they only pay a professional fee upfront but no trailing commissions, so no incentive to look after the clients interest, not saying all brokers do that, but i am sure alot of them do the deal and then look for the next deal. Recession seems to be happening as we speak, as you will noticce more and more people loosing jobs, forcing properties on the market (great for real estate agents) and as rates continue to drop, more and more buyers enter the market.. See by the govt taking the grant to 14,000 instead of 7,000 for first home buyers (FHO) and removing stamp duty for FHO under 500,000 this releases alot of stress from the investors in the market, as they are trying to move proprties in that price range freeing up cash and equity to puchase in the higher end of the market(over 500k) (this topic we can just keep going on and on) but in saying that the FHO will start to really move into the market very quickly, this can be very scary as most would say that is what got us in this mess to start off with, but if buyers get in now, and watch the rates and have a decent broker, normally the broker will recommend a good time to fix for several years but not at this stage as they seem to keep coming down. Especially if the broker puts the client in a Pro Pack which has a discounted rate from the std var rate the bank offers. During this financial crisis my business some how has gone through a growth stage and as rates come down it only gets busier; as alot of my business referrals from family and friends (mostly FHO) Our builders seem to be busy now, but not sure of the future even though the grant for them has grown to 21,000. I think we are heading for a recession, as it does seem to be getting worse and we still are not at the bottom of it, time will tell though i do think now is the time to buy, and yes the market could continue to drop in certain pockets in brisbane, but other pockets are showing growth. I have some agents sending me business with back up purchase contracts, which is something we have not seen for some years, normally this happens in a booming market. So i think now its time to buy within reason as rates are great, and fix before the rise again, that way you can hold the property through tough times. All this makes sense in my head and i hope it makes some sense, but if you need anything just send me an email, and i will be happy to see what reports or assistance i can offer you. Sorry for such a large reply, but really to answer that question i would need another few hours and i have clients coming to see me soon, so i have to prepare. Take care John Focas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KIRK AND CO Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 Hi Guys Just wondering if anyone in Oz can let us know if the Credit crunch / Recession is happening in Oz ( Brisbane inparticular ) ? Are house prices falling ? Is Bricklaying/Trade work drying up ? Intrest rates coming down ? Any help would be great x:wink: easy just put yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sunseekers Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 Focus Finance Many thanks for taking the time to give such a detailed and educated responce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest FocasFinance Posted November 25, 2008 Share Posted November 25, 2008 Focus Finance Many thanks for taking the time to give such a detailed and educated responce. Hi Sunseekers, No worries, feel free to email me anytime on john@focasfinance.com Oh and its Focas Finance not Focus (not to worry happens all the time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest MariAndyok Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 Dear Subscriber, Keen followers of the Forex markets will know that the Australian dollar got hammered yesterday. Even against our own sickly pound, the Aussie was on the floor. And if you’re into betting on currency moves, then this one could run and run. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will probably cut interest rates by 100 basis points next Tuesday. If it does, there’s every chance that the Aussie dollar will get hit harder as hot, yield-chasing money flies out of it looking for a better, safer place to stay. With the base rate currently at 5.25 per cent, the RBA has more room to cut, whereas there is less room to go till zero in the major economies, as the chart shows. You could say that even if the RBA slashes 100 basis points, interest-rate differentials will still be in Australia’s favour. But consider that the spreads will be narrowing and capital is likely to flow to “less risky” currencies. And let’s not forget that the trend recently has been for central banks to surprise by cutting more than expected. A bigger cut could really trigger off a run on the Aussie. Don’t take my word for it, by the way. This isn’t a trade recommendation – and it’s bound to be a volatile little ride. In fact, the dollar is already bouncing after yesterday’s sell-off. [if you’re looking for a way to play the unrivalled excitement of the current Forex climate, then I’ll tell you about a great one in a moment.] But let’s get back to the back-story… Poor old Australia. A year ago, everything was looking so positive for the commodity-rich country. In fact, it all looked a little too good. Gold, iron ore, uranium prices were all going through the roof. China was beating down the doors to get hold of Australia’s vast reserves of natural resources; the economy was in danger of overheating; newspapers talked about a return to the unsustainable growth and rampant inflation of the early 1970s. Twelve months and a commodity price crash later and Wall Street has turned against Australia. Three major investment banks have come out this week to pronounce it on the critical list. It’s another victim of the credit crunch, they say. Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch analysts say the Australian economy is already slumping. They say that things will continue to get worse well into 2009 and are now predicting recession. According to ABN Amro, economic growth is close to zero. Why the turnaround? Well, you can start with the deterioration in global growth outlook, particularly in Asia. China is one of Australia’s key trading partners. Economic growth in the Asian giant has slowed from 12% a year ago to just below 9% now. And it gets worse. The International Monetary Fund’s latest estimate for 2009 is 8.5%, while the World Bank is predicting 7.5%. This huge slowdown points to less demand for Australia’s resources, and less growth for Australia. The second main reason for Australia’s current slowdown is the actions of the central bank. In its attempts to remove the threat of an overheating economy, and to bring inflation under control, the RBA went all out, aggressively raising interest rates from 2006 till now. Except they’ve gone too far. And now the economy is looking like it’s heading into recession like the rest of us. So why then are so many Aussies returning home? Surely it’s not just for the beaches and barbecues. Well, things may be a lot less rosy than a year ago. But it’s all relative. Australia is slowing, that much is clear. But it still remains a lot better positioned than many other major economies, including our own. As the chart shows, growth forecasts for the major world economies have been downgraded over the past year. And the same goes for Australia. But it also shows Australian GDP growth is expected to remain well above that of the likes of the US, UK, eurozone and Japan. Worst of all the major economies is the UK. Unemployment is rising, City bonuses have dried up, property values are slumping. The country, as my colleagues at The Fleet Street Letter say, is going bust. It’s little wonder, then, that Australians are flying out of the UK in the biggest numbers in 30 years. They’re looking for a better place to stay – a place called home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest earlswood Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 This is a good site to bookmark for future. Dire warnings on Australian economy > Business > LIVENEWS.com.au Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest WARDStoOZ Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 This is a good site to bookmark for future. Dire warnings on Australian economy > Business > LIVENEWS.com.au Knew you'd be back Earls lol Good to see you online...! Regards, Dan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest WARDStoOZ Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 Hi Guys Just wondering if anyone in Oz can let us know if the Credit crunch / Recession is happening in Oz ( Brisbane inparticular ) ? Are house prices falling ? Is Bricklaying/Trade work drying up ? Intrest rates coming down ? Any help would be great x:wink: Hi there, hope you don't think I was hijacking your thread above ^^^ lol I've heard that house prices are going to fall quite a lot over the next twelve or so months in Oz and that the interest rates are decreasing. BBC News said that Australia are amongst the best prepared countries in the world for the economic downturn so it isn't going to be as bad there as here... fingers crossed anyway! Regards, Dan xx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest sunseekers Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 Hi Mari and yok Thanks for your great reply and i really hope your right as we are holding out to exchange our money to Oz dollars, Gutted we missed the 2.67 a few weeks back that wont happen again in a hurry im sure. Cheers x GLAD YOUR BACK EARLSWOOD - THAT DID NOT LAST LONG - TANTRUM MAYBE !! LOL SILLY SOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest FocasFinance Posted November 26, 2008 Share Posted November 26, 2008 Hi there, hope you don't think I was hijacking your thread above ^^^ lol I've heard that house prices are going to fall quite a lot over the next twelve or so months in Oz and that the interest rates are decreasing. BBC News said that Australia are amongst the best prepared countries in the world for the economic downturn so it isn't going to be as bad there as here... fingers crossed anyway! Regards, Dan xx Hi Dan, So much goes into trying to predict the future, all i can say is certain pockets will drop and some will not. I remember when i bought a property in 2001 and everybody was stating the market would drop and to hold off, even my bank manager at the tim said to hold off.. I went ahead and bought regardless of the negative comments i kept getting, luckily as a boom hit 6 months later in that area and the property doubled in value in under 2 years. If you can afford now and are comfortable with the rates then i would say its a good time to buy, see the rates keep dropping, so really market is meeting your price, and keep an eye on rates; fix when they start to move up>as your broker will probably keep an eye on for you anyway, as we do with our clients, once things start to rock n roll we call and ask if they want to fix. Remember that you only loose money on a down market if you sell... Like shares i have heaps of clients with shares, and none of them are really stressing to much as they are geared pretty well, though if they start to sell then they start making losses, so dont sell if you can afford to, and the rates dropping slashes repayments by heaps each month. Good luck with which ever way you go. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.