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Above Average Cyclone Activity

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THE Bureau of Meteorology predicts that Far North Queensland has a 65 per cent chance of observing above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is three or four.

 

Tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (5°S-40°S, 90°E-160°E) is likely to be above average this coming season. The outlook suggests a 80% chance of having more than the long-term average number of cyclones in the Australian region during the 2011-12 season. (For more info about average tropical cyclone activity and La Niña events see info about Tropical cyclone average conditions.)

 

This outlook is based upon the status of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September period. During this period in 2011, neutral to borderline La Niña conditions were present. Historically, these conditions have favoured an above average number of cyclones in the Australian region.

 

The outlook favours the following scenarios for the coming season:

 

The whole Australian Region has an 80% chance of having more than the long-term average number of cyclones. The long-term average is twelve.

 

The Western Region has a 65% chance of observing above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is seven.

 

The North-western Sub-region has a 60% chance of above average number of tropical cyclones. The long-term average is five.

 

The Northern Region has a 60% chance of above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is two or three cyclones.

 

The Eastern Region has a 65% chance of observing above average number of tropical cyclones, where the long-term average is three or four.

 

Before a tropical cyclone forms it is difficult to predict its exact strength and path, including whether it will make landfall. Along the east and west coasts fewer than half of the cyclones affect the coast, with most staying out to sea.

 

Conversely, along the north coast more than half of the cyclones impact the coast. Tropical cyclones which remain out to sea can still cause storm surges, gales and areas of intense rain over land. During the cyclone season, ensure you are well informed of any warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology and instructions from local Emergency Services authorities.


If you are depressed you are living in the past. If you are anxious you are living in the future. If you are at peace you are living in the present.

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???

 

A news item said that there would be a smaller risk of cyclones this season.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2011/10/14/3339908.htm

 

"Townsville weather bureau forecaster Doug Fraser says this year's La Nina is weaker than last year's, but is likely to develop as the season progresses.

"For that reason we are expecting to see a fairly busy wet season again but from all indications not as bad as last year."

 

 

 

 

Cheers, Bobj.

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Another...

 

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-09-21/la-nina-explainer/2902456

 

Could it be catastrophic?

 

We don't know that yet. A lot of folks are saying it's too early to say how it will manifest, and that's true.

At this stage, you could say it's not as intense as this time last year - nowhere near as intense as this time last year - but it's only early days in its development, and it could become quite an intense system as we get through to January, February.

It's early days. With the exception of the United States model, most are saying at this stage, it's a weaker form than last year.

 

 

Cheers, Bobj.

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